1. Supervisors Prof GPW Jewitt Prof H. Mahoo Integrated Scenario Approach in addressing climate change uncertainties in Wami Ruvu Catchment, Tanzania Mercy Mwanikah Ojoyi

10. Map showing river/lake basins in Tanzania and 7 catchments of Wami/Ruvu Basin Study Area Dar es salaam Arusha

21. Major Driving Actors from Scenario Procedure Driving force Better Moderate Worse Finances 72 0 12 Drought 42 36 6 Climate change 78 6 0 Hand hoe use 6 14 66 Agricultural inputs 72 0 1 2 Knowledge and extension services 66 0 18 Changes in planting seasonality 24 6 54 Seed usage and availability 72 0 12 Irrigation 18 0 66

22. III. Driving forces highly ranked by scenario participants Driving forces Worse (%) Moderate(%) Better(%) Drought 18 54 0 Knowledge and extension services 0 42 36 Agricultural practice 18 48 12 Environmental protection 0 36 42 Financial constraints 6 30 42

23. Categories of Scenarios 2030 Developed Actors/ Factors Status of Actors/Factors State of stagnation In transition Managing thro’ Experience State of Stability Drought Increase/decrease Increase Increase Decrease Decrease Knowledge and accessibility to technology High level of awareness/low level of awareness Low Low Relatively high Very high Agricultural productivity High/Low High Low High High Environmental Conservation Weak environmental conservation/advanced environmental conservation Weak Weak Advanced Advanced Economics Stable/low low low better Stable

25. Sustainable Follow-up Activities by participants

28. Thanks!