Adrian Gault, CCC

1. THE OUTLOOK FOR AD AND THE
FUTURE OF THE INDUSTRY
#UKADBiogas @adbioresources
CHAIR:
CHARLOTTE MORTON, ADBA
PANEL:
CHRIS HUHNE, ADBA
TONY GLOVER, ENERGY NETWORKS ASSOCIATION
ADRIAN GAULT, THE COMMITTEE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
DUSTIN BENTON, GREEN ALLIANCE

2. 2
Progress towards meeting UK carbon budgets
- and implications for the AD sector
1 July 2015
Adrian Gault, Chief Economist

3. 3
The Climate Change Act sets a framework to drive
change
Requirement that Government
brings forward policies
Requirement that Government
brings forward policies
Committee on Climate Change
to monitor progress and suggest
changes
Committee on Climate Change
to monitor progress and suggest
changes
Carbon budgetsCarbon budgets
2050 Emissions Target2050 Emissions Target
A toolkitA toolkit
A monitoring
framework
A monitoring
framework
A pathwayA pathway
A goalA goal1
2
3
4
The Climate Change Act

4. 4
Yesterday, the Committee published its latest advice to
Parliament on progress in reducing UK emissions
• It is the first combined Progress Report:
– UK progress against requirements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
– UK progress to prepare for climate change that is underway
• The advice is provided in context of developments in:
– Science: widespread evidence for climate change caused by human activities
– Risks: Increased evidence of specific risks to the UK from flooding, higher
temperatures and food and international security
– Opportunities: to reduce costs to households and businesses by increasing
certainty about future action
• International context: December negotiations in Paris in which UK wants a global deal
and needs to demonstrate it is acting domestically to meet its own commitments

5. 5
Progress reducing emissions

6. 6
UK greenhouse gas emissions fell by 8% in 2014; they
are now below the level required to meet the 2nd
carbon budget (2013-17)

7. 7
But the 8% fall cannot be interpreted as a permanent shift to
a low emission path. For example, part of the reduction
reflects relatively high winter temperatures in 2014….
…. part reflects increased renewables… but part reflects one-off
changes…

8. 8
Uncertainties over future policy means action will be
required to remain on the cost effective path in power…
Power sector – gap to cost-effective path

9. 9
…buildings…
Buildings – gap to cost-effective path

10. 10
…transport and other sectors
Transport – gap to cost-effective path

11. 11
Recommendations

12. 12
Many low-carbon policies and funding streams have no
certainty beyond next few years. So this Parliament will
determine the rate of progress to 2030
Investment:
– Policies and funding streams
provide no certainty beyond this
Parliament
– creates significant risks
Future options & innovation:
– Need to signal future market to
drive innovation and development
of options
Low carbon choices
– Role of government to address
barriers to choices and
understanding what works
Programme End date
LCF April 2021
ECO April 2017
RHI funding April 2016
Green Deal No date but lack
of funds
CCAs 2020
EU car/van
targets
2020
EV support 2020
Local
sustainable
transport fund
2015/16
GHG Action Plan
(agriculture)
2022

13. 13
Committee makes specific recommendations for each
sector.
• Power sector:
– Ensure sector can plan in line with its investment cycle, including extend LCF to 2025
– Provide clarity for future offshore wind market
– Set approach to CCS beyond projects current two projects, including CO2 infrastructure
• Buildings:
– Action plan for low-carbon heat, including future of RHI
– Set out future beyond Energy Company Obligation that considers energy efficiency and
fuel poverty
– Approach to zero carbon homes cannot be weakened further
• Transport:
– Maintain upfront support for EVs (to reach competitive pricing)
– Appropriate gCO2/km target for 2030

14. 14
Role of bioenergy and AD

15. 15
Committee’s assessment to date
• Supplies of sustainable bioenergy important to meeting the 2050 emissions
reduction target
• Within this, there is significant potential bioenergy supply from waste. Waste
sources and wet agricultural residues could provide equivalent to around 3% of total
UK primary energy demand in 2050
• Given limits to global supplies of sustainable bioenergy, it is important that this is
used optimally:
• Ultimately reflects long-term best uses
• Keeps options open, e.g. to respond to technology breakthroughs
• Helps reduce emissions cost-effectively in the near term, provided lock-in is
limited
• For AD, longer-term priorities likely to be around use in industry and biomethane
injection into gas grid

16. 16
Next steps
• Government response to progress report– 15 October
• 5th Carbon budget advice (2028 – 2032) – by end of year
• In that context, if you have views to feed in, we would be
happy to receive them
• Our website – www.theccc.org.uk

17. THE OUTLOOK FOR AD AND THE
FUTURE OF THE INDUSTRY
#UKADBiogas @adbioresources
CHAIR:
CHARLOTTE MORTON, ADBA
PANEL:
CHRIS HUHNE, ADBA
TONY GLOVER, ENERGY NETWORKS ASSOCIATION
ADRIAN GAULT, THE COMMITTEE ON CLIMATE CHANGE
DUSTIN BENTON, GREEN ALLIANCE