A summary of the key changes that we use in our innovation and foresight projects. Drivers, trends, Attractors, Gray Swans...each of them has its benefits and downfalls.

1. Which types of change do you use?
by Daniel Egger

3. With contributions and insights from such renowned
thinkers and doers as Aga Szóstek, Artur Arsénio,
Diogo Dutra, Erica Orange, Érico Fileno, Harry West,
Jeffrey Tjendra, Luis Gustavo, Malcolm Ryder, Maria
Paula Oliveira, Mark Storm, Mattia Crespi and
Norman Wang.

4. ...is about variety of information and uncertainty.
We might argue that the present defines the future, assume a ceteris-
paribusview of the world—focusing on just one variable in change—
and ignore the rest, or simplify the paths of possible change. But this
is a fallacy(!), as the present and future are complex, and much will
remain unknown.

5. The exploration of an interplay between chaos and order.
If this is possible,
everything will be
different.
The world is in
change.
Something is
going on.

6. Reality is a soup of possibilities of infinite elements.
These small entities are completely fluid.
Each day, new variables die and are
born. Some stay isolated or inactive;
others connect and become part of a
larger shift. What we perceive of the
world defines our “ truth”guiding our
decisions and how we imagine the
future.

7. When we perceive change we see variables moving.
When variables move we call them
vectors. They represent potential shifts
forming…yet with unknown longer-term
implications. We can use them as early-
warning system or for Cool Hunting—
spotting of short living cultural trends—
and explores fast-changing elements
such as color, style and forms.

8. Trends allow us to investigate different contexts.
If variables from increasingly
heterogeneous contexts move in the
same directionand get momentum,
then we talk about Trends.
Trends are not the final delivery of a
foresight process, but more represent
the starting pointto navigate and
question further.

9. Trends are not the final delivery of a foresight process.
Only if we understand whatdrives thetrend,
contextualize it and explore implications, will its
potential for the organization unfold. But time
pressures and resource restrictions often limit the
process to high-level summaries. With thousands of
organizations using the same “summarized”
information, the strategic potential of trends is
limited.

10. A bundle of changes that define a critical transformation.
Drivers are a combination of several
trends, early signs, and events (shocks),
and share a common characteristic—a
momentum, moving together in a
similar direction. They also represent
structures with the highestprobability of
change.

11. A “gravitational force” of changes.
Attractors don’t draw attention, but
instead slowlyaccumulateor move…this
can change abruptly. They might be
triggered from many different
developments, such as a technological
breakthrough, new commercial
applications, an increasing community,
or media attention.

12. Briefly summarize the five key types.
There are more

13. Each change always creates counter-movements.
Any change creates counter-
movements, forces formed by people
who don’tsharethe same logic and
values—individuals who perceive reality
differently. And their actions might have
relevant implications for the change, an
the research.

14. We know not the future, but about certain events.
Structural Certainties represent mostly
large “scheduled” international projects
or happenings such as huge scientific
projects, conventions or sporting events,
which have a set date with an outcome
that changesthe statusquo.

15. When an event changes everything.
Black Swans—not knowable, low-
probability but high-impact events—can
change the logic of society fast. Where
Black Swans are impossible to predict,
Gray Swans are to a certain level.
Depending on the industry each have
positiveor negative implication, the
event itself is neutral.

16. www.danielegger.com
@daniel_egger