Summary of Earth Science Decadal Survey

1. Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives Next Decade & Beyond December 8, 2008 Art Charo Space Studies Board

4. Astronomy: “Gold Standard” Decadal Survey OSTP response to Inquiries about Decadal Surveys, August 2006: “OMB uses surveys as a significant consideration in budget decisions each year, in addition to other budget & policy considerations.” “In particular, astronomy surveys are generally considered the gold standard of independent priority setting by a scientific community.”

5. Vision for First ESAS Decadal Survey A healthy, secure, prosperous & sustainable society for all people on Earth “ Understanding the complex, changing planet on which we live, how it supports life, & how human activities affect its ability to do so in the future is one of the greatest intellectual challenges facing humanity. It is also one of the most important for society as it seeks to achieve prosperity & sustainability.” NRC (April 2005)

6. ESAS Survey Statement of Tasks Post-2015 mission plans Identify important directions to influence planning for decade beyond 2015 5 Major focus of survey Recommend prioritized measurements & new capabilities & activities in NASA ESE & NOAA NESDIS to support national needs for Earth research & monitoring 2005-2015 4 Many user briefings Take into account principal federal & state users & identify opportunities & challenges to exploit data 3 Top-Ten Develop consensus of top scientific questions to focus Earth environmental observations 2005-2015 2 >100 multi-disciplinary experts on panels Assess progress resolving major scientific questions in relevant NRC, NASA, & other studies realizing desired predictive & applications capabilities via space-based Earth observations 1 Approach Task Statement Task

8. Executive Committee & 7 Thematic Panels Human health U. Michigan, Human Health Panel Chair Mark Wilson Water resources U. Washington, Water Resources Panel Chair Dennis Lettenmaier Climate U. Texas, Climate Panel Chair Eric Barron Weather U. Colorado, Weather Panel Chair Susan Avery Land cover change & remote sensing U. Maryland, Ecosystems Panel Chair Ruth DeFries Solid earth & Natural hazards MIT, Solid Earth Panel Chair Brad Hagar Ecology & land remote sensing Pac. NW Natl Lab/UMd, Applications Panel Chair Tony Janetos Solid earth Risk Management Solutions Mary Lou Zoback Climate National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Warren Washington Policy Rice University Neal Lane Physical oceanography, satellite observation U. Washington Kathie Kelly Weather forecasting European Centre Medium-range Weather Forecasts Tony Hollingsworth Hazards & risk U. South Carolina Susan Cutter Civil space & Information Technology Microsoft Virtual Earth Bill Gail Remote sensing Former TRW (ret) Bruce Marcus Atmospheric science, chemistry Harvard University Jim Anderson Biogeochemical cycling U. New Hampshire, co-chair Berrien Moore Atmospheric science Univ. Corp. Atmospheric Research (UCAR), co-chair Rick Anthes Expertise Institution Member

12. Survey Driven by Societal Needs* Climate Prediction: Robust estimates of climate forcings for better forecasts, including local predictions of climate change effects *Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Working Group Extreme Event Warnings: Better storm track forecasts & intensification predictions, volcanic eruption & landslide warnings for effective evacuation planning Human Health: Better infectious & vector-borne disease forecasts for control & response Earthquake Warning: Identify active faults & predict likelihood of earthquakes for effective structural improvements & informed land-use decisions Improved Weather Prediction: Longer-term, more reliable forecasts Sea-level Rise: Better ocean temperature & ice-sheet volume change forecasts & feedback for effective coastal community planning Air Quality: More reliable forecasts for effective urban pollution management Freshwater Availability: Improved precipitation & drought forecasts for better management Ecosystem Services: Improved agricultural land-use & ocean productivity forecasts to improve planting & harvesting schedules & fisheries management

17. 30 Measurement Types Across 7 Themes Most Measurements by Multiple Missions Ecosystem Carbon budget (1) Climate Ice Dynamics (2) Solid Earth High Resolution Topography (1) Health Heat Stress & Drought (6) Water Global Ocean Productivity (2) Ecosystem Global Ecosystem Dynamics (2) Ecosystem Ecosystem Structure & Biomass (2) Ecosystem Ecosystem Function (1) Water Cold Seasons (4) Weather Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon (2) Weather All Weather Temperature & Humidity Profiles (2) Health Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease (5) Health Air Pollution (3) Weather Aerosol-Cloud Discovery (1) Health Acute Toxic Pollution Releases (3) Panel Theme Measurement Type (# missions) Water Inland & Coastal Water Quality (1) Water Water Vapor Transport (1) Health Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (5) Weather Tropospheric Winds (1) Weather Tropospheric Ozone (3) Weather Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization (3) Solid Earth Surface Composition/Therm. Properties (1) Solid Earth Surface Deformation (2) Water Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (2) Water Surface Water & Ocean Topography (2) Water Soil Moisture & Freeze/Thaw State (1) Weather Radio Occultation (14) Climate Radiance Calibration (2) Health Ozone Processes (5) Climate Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing (3) Panel Theme Measurement Type (# missions)

18. Three Proven NOAA Missions *Sun-synchronous orbit (SSO) $150M GPS receiver LEO (4) High accuracy, all-weather temperature, water, electron density profiles (Climate, health, water, & weather) GPS radio occultation (GPSRO) $65M Broadband radiometers LEO, SSO* (2) Solar & earth radiance calibration for climate, ozone processes for health (Climate and health) Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO-Reflight instrumentation) Estimate Instruments Orbit (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) 2010-2013 $350M Backscatter radar, multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer LEO, SSO Sea surface wind vectors for ocean circulation, heat storage, & climate forcing Extended Ocean Vector Winds Mission (XOVWM) Estimate Instruments Orbit Measurement 2013-2016

19. Four 2010-2013 NASA Missions $700M L-band (1.2GHz) InSAR Laser altimeter LEO, SSO (8) Ice Dynamics, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Deformation, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, health, solid earth, water) Deformation, Ecosystem Structure & Dynamics of Ice (DESDynI) $300M Laser altimeter LEO, Non- SSO (5) Clouds, Aerosols, Ice & Carbon, Ecosystem Structure & Biomass, Sea Ice Thickness, Glacier Surface Elevation, Glacier Velocity (Climate, ecosystem, water) Ice, Cloud, & Land Elevation Satellite –II (ICESat-II) $300M L-band radar & radiometer LEO, SSO (5) Soil moisture & freeze/thaw, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Health and water) Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) $200M Absolute, spectrally resolved solar interferometer Precessing LEO (1) Forcing & response of climate (climate) Climate Absolute Radiance & Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO-NASA portion) Estimate Instruments Orbit (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Mission

20. Five 2013-2016 NASA Missions $800M Backscatter lidar Multiangle polarimeter Doppler radar LEO, SSO (10) Aerosol-Cloud, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Clouds, Aerosols, Ice, & Carbon. Ice Dynamics, Global Ocean Productivity, Ozone Processes, Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Climate, ecosystem, health, weather) Aerosol/Cloud/Ecosystems (ACE) $550M High spatial resolution hyperspectral spectrometer Low spatial resolution imaging spectrometer IR correlation radiometer GEO (9) Air Pollution, Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Heat Stress & Drought, Inland & Coastal Water Quality, Ozone Processes. Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather) Geostationary Coastal & Air Pollution Events (Geo-CAPE) $450M Ku-band radar Ku-band altimeter Microwave radiometer LEO, SSO (4) Ocean Circulation, Heat Storage, & Climate Forcing, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Surface Water & Ocean Topography (Climate, health, water) Surface Water/Ocean Topography (SWOT) $400M Multifrequency laser LEO, SSO (2) Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO 2 column for climate, ozone processes for health (Climate, ecosystem, health) Active Sensing of CO 2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) $300M Hyperspectral spectrometer LEO, SSO (4) Land surface composition for agriculture & mineral characterization, vegetation types for ecosystem health (Ecosystem, health, solid earth) Hyperspectral/IR Imagery (HyspIRI) Estimate Instruments Orbit (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Mission

22. Six 2016-2020 NASA Missions $650M Doppler lidar LEO, SSO (3) Weather forecasting, pollution & water vapor transport (Health, water, weather) 3-Dimensional Tropospheric Winds from Space-based Lidar (3D-Winds: Demo) $600M UV spectrometer IR spectrometer Microwave limb sounder LEO, SSO (7) Acute Toxic Pollution Releases, Air Pollution Cold Seasons, Global Ecosystem Dynamics, Ozone Processes, Tropospheric Aerosol Characterization & Ozone (Ecosystem, health, water, weather) Global Atmospheric Composition Mission (GACM) $500M Ku & X-band radars K & Ka-band radiometers LEO, SSO (1) Snow accumulation for fresh water availability (Water) Snow & Cold Land Processes (SCLP) $450M Microwave or laser ranging system LEO, SSO (2) High temporal resolution gravity fields to track large-scale water movement (Climate and water) Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment-II (GRACE-II) $450M Microwave array spectrometer GEO (5) All-weather temperature & humidity soundings for weather forecasting & SST, Heat Stress & Drought, Algal Blooms & Water-Borne Infectious Disease Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease, Cold Seasons (Health, water, weather) Precision & All-weather Temperature & Humidity (PATH) $300M Modified Laser altimeter LEO, SSO (3) Landslide hazards & water runoff, Heat Stress & Drought, Vector-Borne & Zoonotic Disease (Health, solid earth) Lidar Surface Topography (LIST) Estimate Instruments Orbit (#) Measurement Types (Panel Themes) Mission

23. Recommendations Synergistically Support Societal Needs Human Health Earthquake Warning Weather Prediction Sea-level Rise Climate Prediction Freshwater Availability Ecosystem Services Air Quality

24. Each Mission Serves Multiple Societal Needs Societal Need X X X XOVRM X X X X X SWOT X X SMAP X X SCLP X X X X X X PATH X X LIST X X ICESat-II X X HyspIRI X X GRACE-II X X X X X GPSRO X X X Geo-CAPE X X X GACM X X X X X DESDynI X X CLARREO X X ASCENDS X X X X ACE X Weather Prediction X X X 3d-Winds Sea Rise Human Health Freshwater Availability Ext Event Warning Ecosystem Services Earthquake Warning Climate Prediction Air Quality Mission

29. “Immediate” Media Reaction New York Times Editorial: Blinding Ourselves in Space January 21, 2007 “… National Academy of Sciences projected alarming decline in vital studies & monitoring. …since 2000 [NASA’s] budget for earth sciences decreased over 30% … By 2010, number instruments…likely to drop 40%…bound to hobble efforts to understand if hurricanes & heat waves [will be] more frequent & intense, ice sheets collapse & drive sea levels dangerously high, how fish stocks, deforestation, drinking water & air pollution are affected as populations grow... We need more data in coming years, not less.” January 23 2007 NYT Editorial Page Cartoon

30. Recent Congressional Reaction “ When accurate weather forecasting & climate research is increasingly important to the well-being of our citizens, this distinguished panel of experts is warning in no uncertain terms that ' the United States’ extraordinary foundation of global observations is at great risk.' " "I don’t think the National Academies could be clearer voicing its concern over the current state of affairs," added Chairman Gordon . "It’s not easy to find the money, but given the consequences of inaction, we must try." 13 February 2007 Dr. Rick Anthes, NRC Co-chair Dr. Berrien Moore, NRC Co-chair

31. Earth Science & Applications from Space: National Imperatives for Next Decade & Beyond Available at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11820.html