The document discusses the concept of crowd wisdom, where large groups of people can collectively arrive at accurate conclusions. It provides examples like estimating the weight of an ox or number of jelly beans in a jar. Crowd wisdom is now being applied online through platforms like Wikipedia, prediction markets, crowdfunding, and crowdsourcing solutions. However, for a crowd to be truly wise, there needs to be diversity of opinions, independence, decentralization, and aggregation of judgments. When these conditions are met, scaling up the crowd size tends to reduce errors and provide more accurate information than any individual alone.

1. Connecting to the Crowd
11.08.2011 Richard von Kaufmann // co-founder // concepting director

2. Zipipop helps with social media
guidance, marketing, analysis,
concepting and collaboration.

3. The Wisdom of Crowds

4. The Wisdom of Crowds
Francis Galton, 1906
Butchered weight:
Average of crowd guess: 1,197 pounds
Actual weight: 1,198

5. Jelly Bean Jar
Average of 56 students=871
Actual amount=850
Only one student guessed better

6. Wisdom of the crowds at work

7. Hive Mind

8. Crowd-wisdom on the Web
420m unique monthly visitors 60% of web-servers run Linux 40 million monthly visitors
20 million articles
300 languages

9. Upside down thinking
Jimmy Wales, the founder of Wikipedia,
is not fond of the word crowdsoucing
because the etymology of the word is
related to outsourcing — which is an
upside down way of looking at what is
going on online.
“Here is something people are trying to
do — let’s help them do that. And what
you get out of it in the end maybe an
amazing product”
Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia, talking
at Internet Week Europe this week.

10. How Google uses crowd-wisdom
link = vote

11. Crowdfunding is a reality

12. A Public Art project in New York

13. Public votes which projects are funded

14. Crowdfunding charity work

15. Prediction Markets
In 2007, players in the Hollywood Stock Exchange correctly predicted 32 of
the 39 major-category Oscar nominees and 7 out of 8 top-category winners.

16. Serious Business
Corning, Renault, Eli Lilly, Pfizer,
Siemens, Masterfoods, Arcelor Mittal
and other global companies are
listed as Lumenogic (previously
NewsFutures) customers.

17. Innocentive
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cac-XdXL-Qk&feature=related

18. Iceland’s crowdsourced constitution

19. More Finnish crowdsourcing

20. http://collabdocs.wordpress.com/2011/09/20/umbrella-of-crowdsourcing/

21. Four conditions of a smart crowd:
• Diversity of opinion
• Independence
• Decentralization
• Aggregation

22. Diversity of Opinion
• private information

23. Independence
• not influenced by others

24. Decentralization
• specialist, local knowledge

25. Aggregate • mechanism for turning private
judgements into collective decisions

26. Scale it up
• more input produces better results

27. information + error
crowd error probability averaged = ~0
(i.e -10+50-60+20=0)
“information” with reduced error

28. Crowdsourcing Solutions
In recent years there has been a
number of services showing how
communities can collaboratively
come up with successful
solutions to problems and
questions.

29. Web of Trust

30. Nokia supported crowd-rating platform

32. The power of intuition
are
New findings in cognitive science
)
showing that intuition (gut feeling
ensed
can be thought of as “cond
any
experience” and in m ve
circumstance s can be more effecti
y.
than in depth analytical stud

33. Rating parameters (intuition)
User’s comparison to the
wisdom of the crowd

35. How it can go wrong
If the conditions are not right it can go badly wrong.

36. Easily influenced

37. Information Cascade

38. Information Cascade
Group 30% better on average

39. The Non-conformist
Imperfect information

40. Imperfect Information
Better restaurant

41. Kiitos!
Richard von Kaufmann
Concepting Director, Co-founder
puh. 045 11 222 73
s-posti: richard@zipipop.com
www.zipipop.com

42. Slideshare Resources
http://www.slideshare.net/tramp0/crowdfunding-for-highgrowth-ventures
http://www.slideshare.net/GijsbertKoren/crowdfunding-opportunities-for-crowdfunding-startups
http://www.slideshare.net/bryanmiller/the-future-of-fundraising-in-a-networked-society