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Green Economy Initiative


  United Nations Environment Programme

            Moustapha Kamal Gueye

Acting Head, Green Economy Advisory Services Unit
A multidimensional crisis rooted in
    patterns of development
The global context
Multiple crises: More than a financial and economic crisis:

• Social - 18 to 51 million unemployed over 2007 levels & the number
  of extremely poor has increased by at least 100 million people
  worldwide.

• Fuel - rising prices cost developing economies US$ 400 bn in higher
  energy bills in 2007.

• Food - prices cost developing countries US$ 324 bn in 2007.

• Ecosystems - EUR 50 bn worth of biodiversity is being lost each
  year.

• Climate - current global GHG emissions at 42 Gt per annum - 5 times
  higher than the threshold.
On a business as usual path…
B y 2 0 3 0 a n d b e yo n d …

 G lo b a l e n e r g y d e m a n d u p b y 4 5 %
 O il p r ic e u p t o U S $ 18 0 p e r b a r r e l
 G H G e m is s io n s u p 4 5 %
 G lo b a l a v e r a g e t e m p e r a t u r e u p
  6 °C in t h e n e x t c e n t u r y
 S u s t a in e d lo s s e s e q u iv a le n t t o
  5 - 10 % o f g lo b a l G D P a s c o m p a r e d
  t o t h e 3 % o f G D P lo s s f r o m t h e
  c u r r e n t f in a n c ia l c r is is
 P o o r c o u n t r ie s w ill s u f f e r c o s t s in
Discounting Natural Capital

• G lo b a l G D P
  m ore tha n
  d o u b le d
  b e t w e e n 19 8 1
  – 2 0 0 5 .

• B ut 6 0 % of
  w o r ld ’ s
  e c o s ys te m s
  d e g r a d e d /e x p l
  o it e d
  u n s u s t a in a b ly
  (M E A, 2 0 0 5 ).
Distribution of Costs -> Poor people




   N a t u r a l c a p it a l is              T h e r o le o f e n v ir o n m e n t a l
    c r it ic a l t o w e a lt h                 r e s o u r c e s in r e d u c in g
      c r e a t io n in lo w                   p o v e r t y , f ig h t in g h u n g e r ,
  i n c o tm e acl ocua n titr a e sis. e s s e n t ia l n d o l o wae r ih g r c h ti lio n ,
     “… a u r
       n                p il                         a t         we l t n c e a d
  a c c o u n t in g f o r a q u a r t e r o f w e a l t h ocr rt e a itt io n in t h e
                                                                 m      al y
p o o r e s t c o u n t r ie s , w h il e s u c h a s h a r e is o n l y 2 % in t h e
                      w o r l d ’s r ic h e s t c o u n t r ie s .”
Our Capital Space… and our Economic
                 Compass…
      Natural Capital




                                                   tal
                                            al Capi
                                   n&   Soci
                             Huma
                         Financial & Physical Capital




                                “We cannot manage what we do not measure”

7
Opportunity Amid Crisis
The Global Green New Deal
  • Revive the world economy, create new and decent jobs, and
    protect the vulnerable

  • Reduce carbon dependency, ecosystem degradation, and
    water scarcity - 1% of GDP in green sectors over two
    years

  • Eliminate persistent poverty by 2015…achieve the MDGs

  • Seed a process of transformative change by
    rebalancing financial and economic capital, human
    capital and natural capital


From : “Rethinking the Economic Recovery: A Global Green New Deal”, UNEP, Feb 2009
Green Stimulus
G20 Green Stimulus Spending Per Sector
                          (US$ Billion)
140
120
100
 80
 60
 40
 20
  0




                                                 er



                                                            r
                id



                           te



                                       EE
        il




                                                                    es
                                                          he
      Ra



             Gr



                         as




                                               ow




                                                                       l
                                                        Ot
                                  ing




                                                                   hic
                         /w




                                              eP



                                                      S/



                                                                Ve
                                 ld
                       er




                                                      CC
                                   i


                                           bl
                                Bu
                     at




                                                                n
                                         wa




                                                                o
                 W




                                                             rb
                                         ne




                                                           Ca
                                       Re




                                                           w
                                                        Lo
                                              Source: HSBC Global Research, UNEP
South Africa’s Green Stimulus




• S o u t h A f r ic a la u n c h e d a $ 7 . 5 b n f is c a l
s t i m u l u s f o r 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 11.
• A r o u n d 11% o r $ 0 . 8 b i l l i o n w a s a l l o c a t e d t o
Beyond Green Stimulus:
 Transition towards a
   Green Economy
Definition of Green Economy

• A G r e e n E c o n o m y is
  c h a r a c t e r iz e d b y s u b s t a n t ia lly
  in c r e a s e d in v e s t m e n t s in
  e c o n o m ic s e c t o r s t h a t b u ild o n
  a nd e nha nc e the e a rth’ s
  n a t u r a l c a p it a l o r r e d u c e
  e c o lo g ic a l s c a r c it ie s a n d
  e n v ir o n m e n t a l r is k s .

• T h e s e in v e s t m e n t s a r e d r iv e n b y
  o r s u p p o r t e d b y n a t io n a l p o lic y
Green Economy Initiative Components
Fostering a Green Economy in Africa


    “We see the green economy as an
  opportunity to respond to the notion that
  there is a trade-off to be made between
  faster economic growth and sustainable
 development, and the preservation of our
                environment”

  President Jacob Zuma, South Africa
Enhancing natural capital, Expanding wealth creation

• A p p r o x im a t e ly
  2 . 6 b illio n
  p e o p le r e ly o n                                           • 10 % i n c r e a s e i n
  a g r ic u lt u r a l                                             f a r m y ie ld s - > 7 %
  p r o d u c t io n                                                r e d u c t io n in
  s ys te m s fo r                                                  p o v e r t y in A f r ic a ,
• t h e2i r l im el ll ii o n o d
    5 5
                v
                   i
                          ho                                        m o r e t h a n 5 % in
 s m a ll f a r m s                                                 A s ia
  (FAO 2 0 0 9 )
 w o r ld w id e ,
 4 0 4 m illio n
 le s s t h a n t w o
                                                              • G r e e n f a r m in g
                                                               p r a c t ic e s h a v e
 he c ta re s of
                                                               in c r e a s e d y ie ld s ,
 la n d ( N a g a y e t s
                                                               e s p e c ia lly o n
 2 0 0 5 )
                                                               s m a ll f a r m s ,
• SA m in cl lr e a sr emins o v e r a l l G D P c o min g f b oemt a g e ic unl t7u 9 a a n a b o r
      n   a fa                                                 r      w r e          r l l d
 c uplrt ov a c t iv 6 y is o n a v e r a g e 2 .5 t ime s mo r e e f f e c t iv e in r a is in g
          i d u t e it 0 %
                                                               18 0 % .
 o f t a e a b oe lsa o f d t h e p o o r e s t q u in t il e in d e v e l o p in g c o u n t r ie s
        h r in c l me       n
 ( H e r r tehn ne at n ae lq. u iv a l e n t in c r e a s e in G D P c o min g f r o m n o n -
                 a
                          a g r ic uUNEP –u –rGREEN ECONOMYo r p r o d u c t iv it y .
                                     l UNEPGREEN ECONOMYb INITIATIVE
                                        t      a l l a INITIATIVE
Uganda’s Organic Agriculture Transformation

                                O r g a n ic A g r ic u lt u r e
                                                                           4 8 - 6 8 % lo w e r
                                                                       c a r b o n e m is s io n
                                                                                      C arbon
                                                                           S e q u e s t r a t io n
                                                                      O r g a n ic f o o d &
                                                                                     d r in k s :
                                                                                     97% of
                                                                               re ve nue s
                                                                                   in O E C D
                                                                               c o u n t r ie s
S $ 2 2 . 8 m i l ( 2 0 0 7 /8 )                                         A $ 50 8n % of
                                                                                     b 0
S $ 6 . 2 m i l ( 2 0 0 4 /5 )                                           g l o p ao d u c e r
                                                                               br l
S $ 3 . 7 m i l ( 2 0 0 3 /4 )                                           ma r k e te l o p i n g
                                                                         in d e v
 O A E x p o r t s in U g a n d a                                        g r o w in g n tt r i e s
                                                                               c ou a
                                    UNEP – Green Economy Initiative
                                                                         10% pe r
Greening Industrialisation
                                                                                                                     Comparison of Energy Intensities
Unit of energy use per unit of GDP
                                     (kg of oil per constant 2005 PPP $




                                                                                        0.45
                                                                                         0.4
                                                                                        0.35
                                                                          equivalent)




                                                                                         0.3
                                                                                        0.25
                                                                                         0.2
                                                                                        0.15
                                                                                         0.1
                                                                                        0.05
                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                            1994



                                                                                                                                          1996




                                                                                                                                                                1999

                                                                                                                                                                       2000



                                                                                                                                                                                     2002




                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2006
                                                                                                       1991




                                                                                                                                   1995



                                                                                                                                                 1997

                                                                                                                                                         1998




                                                                                                                                                                              2001



                                                                                                                                                                                            2003



                                                                                                                                                                                                          2005



                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2007
                                                                                                1990



                                                                                                              1992

                                                                                                                     1993




                                                                                                                                                                                                   2004
                                                                                                                                                            Year

                                                                                    World                Sub-Saharan Africa                             Latin America & Caribbean                         South Asia


                         Source: International Energy Agency, and World Bank PPP data.
GDP and Environment Performance Index in Africa

                                                  Relationship between 2010 EPI and GDP for African Countries
     Environmental Performance Index




                                               100.0
                                                90.0
                                                        Mauritius
                                                80.0
                                                               Ivory Coast
                                                70.0
                                                       Namibia       Tunisia               Morocco    Algeria             Egypt
                                                60.0
                                       (EPI)




                                                                  Kenya        Libya
                                                50.0
                                                                                                                                       South Africa
                                                                  Ethiopia
                                                40.0
                                                                 Cameroon         Angola                        Nigeria
                                                30.0
                                                               Senegal
                                                20.0   Niger                                                                       2
                                                                                                                                  R = 0.0445
                                                10.0
                                                 0.0
                                                 4.50E+08                              1.00E+11                      2.00E+11                 3.00E+11
                                                                                                 GDP (2010 US$)


    T h e E P I is c o n s t r u c t e d f r o m t h e s c o r e s o f t w o p o lic y
    o b je c t iv e s : E n v ir o n m e n t a l H e a lt h , a n d E c o s y s t e m
    V it a lit y .
e : 2 0 10 E n v ir o n m e n t P e r f o r m a n c e I n d e x
The Challenge of Energy
• Limited access to energy is one of the greatest
  challenges to achieve the MDGs in Africa.

• African firms lose 5% of their sales due to frequent power
  outages, a figure that rises to 20% for informal firms
  unable to afford backup generation.

• Overall, the economic costs of power shortage are 1 to
  2% of GDP (World Bank, 2010).

• Investments in clean energy remain minor in Africa,
  totalling $0.9 billion in 2009 (SEFI, 2010).
Green Jobs through Clean Energy




• A b o u t 2 . 3 m illio n jo b s in r e n e w a b le
  e n e r g ie s in c o m p a r is o n t o 2 m illio n
  e m p lo y e d in o il & g a s r e f in in g in d u s t r y
  i n 19 9 9 .

• G lo b a lly , in v e s t in g U S $ 6 3 0 b n in t h e
Harnessing Africa’s Clean Energy Potential




Source: REN21, Figures from Renewable Energy Potentials 2008
Enabling Just Transitions

                                                                                                  Pricing Instruments
                                                                          Sustainable Public
                                                                            Procurement
                                                  Favoring
                                              Green over Brown
                        Draw lessons
    Describe major
                                                                                               • In c e n t iv iz e
                                                                                                green
       policies                                                    • C re a te                  in v e s t m e n t
                                          • G ove rnm                  and
                                                                                                s and
                                            e nt                       s t im u la t e
                     • From                                            m a rke ts
                                                                                                c orrec t
                      e n a b lin g         p o lic ie s                                        n e Capacity v e
                                                                                                     g a t i Building
• G ove rnm                                 and                        fo r g r e e n
                      c o n d it io n                                                           e x t e r n a lit ie
 e nts                                      in f r a s t r u c         goods
                      s                                                                         s
• P r iv a t e                              ture c a n                 and
                                                                                                 • “ E n a b le
 in v e s t o r s     id e n t if ie d                                 s e r v ic e s
                      in s e c t o r        e nc ourag                                            the
• b u s in e s s                            e p r iv a t e                                        e n a b le r s "
 es                   c ha p te rs
                                            s e c tor to                                          in
                                            in v e s t in                                         d e v e lo p in
                                            e n v ir o n m e                                      g
                                            n t a lly                                             c o u n t r ie s
                                            s u s t a in a b l
                                     UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
                                        UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
Measuring Progress: Green Economy Indicators

A s e t o f in d ic a t o r s c a p t u r in g d if f e r e n t a s p e c t s o f
a g r e e n e c o n o m ic t r a n s it io n


                                                                  •   In v e s t m e n t ,
    Suppl y                        De ma n d                          e m p lo y m e n t , a n d
                                                                      o u t p u t in k e y
                                                                      s e c tors of the
                                                                      g re e n e c onomy
                                                                  •   D e c o u p lin g
                                                                      e c o n o m ic
                                                                      g r o w th fr o m
                                                                      im p a c t s o n t h e
                                                                      e n v ir o n m e n t

                 Green Economy                                    •   Ag g re g a te
                                                                      in d ic a t o r s o f
                                UNEP – Green Economy Initiative
                                                                      e c o n o m ic
Supporting National Initiatives:
Green Economy Advisory Services
Current Active Engagement
2 0 10 – 2 0 12 r o l l o u t c o u n t r i e s
• A f r ic a : R e g i o n a l p r o j e c t i n 7 c o u n t r i e s -
  B u r k in a F a s o , E g y p t , G h a n a , K e n y a ,
  R w a n d a , S e n e g a l, S o u t h A f r ic a .
• E a s t A s ia : C h i n a , I n d o n e s i a , P N G ,
  P h ilip p in e s , R e p . K o r e a .
• E u r o p e : A r m e n ia , A z e r b a ija n , M o ld o v a ,
  U k r a in e .
• L a t in A me r ic a a n d C a r ib b e a n : B a r b a d o s ,
D e liv e r a b le s :
  B r a z il, D o m in ic a ,
• G r e e n E cx ocno m yr e g io p ia lg i n i t i a t i v e i n t h e
            Me i o –            S c on n
  S t ur db e s a n .
  C a i ibe
• G r e e nA S ia c Jt o r dSat n ,d L e s g u e o f A r a b
• We s t       s e: or          u iea
• G t a teens .J o b s
  S re
• E n a b lin g p o lic ie s
More Information



   UNEP Green Economy Website

http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/

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UN Report Highlights Green Economy Transition

  • 1. Green Economy Initiative United Nations Environment Programme Moustapha Kamal Gueye Acting Head, Green Economy Advisory Services Unit
  • 2. A multidimensional crisis rooted in patterns of development
  • 3. The global context Multiple crises: More than a financial and economic crisis: • Social - 18 to 51 million unemployed over 2007 levels & the number of extremely poor has increased by at least 100 million people worldwide. • Fuel - rising prices cost developing economies US$ 400 bn in higher energy bills in 2007. • Food - prices cost developing countries US$ 324 bn in 2007. • Ecosystems - EUR 50 bn worth of biodiversity is being lost each year. • Climate - current global GHG emissions at 42 Gt per annum - 5 times higher than the threshold.
  • 4. On a business as usual path… B y 2 0 3 0 a n d b e yo n d …  G lo b a l e n e r g y d e m a n d u p b y 4 5 %  O il p r ic e u p t o U S $ 18 0 p e r b a r r e l  G H G e m is s io n s u p 4 5 %  G lo b a l a v e r a g e t e m p e r a t u r e u p 6 °C in t h e n e x t c e n t u r y  S u s t a in e d lo s s e s e q u iv a le n t t o 5 - 10 % o f g lo b a l G D P a s c o m p a r e d t o t h e 3 % o f G D P lo s s f r o m t h e c u r r e n t f in a n c ia l c r is is  P o o r c o u n t r ie s w ill s u f f e r c o s t s in
  • 5. Discounting Natural Capital • G lo b a l G D P m ore tha n d o u b le d b e t w e e n 19 8 1 – 2 0 0 5 . • B ut 6 0 % of w o r ld ’ s e c o s ys te m s d e g r a d e d /e x p l o it e d u n s u s t a in a b ly (M E A, 2 0 0 5 ).
  • 6. Distribution of Costs -> Poor people N a t u r a l c a p it a l is T h e r o le o f e n v ir o n m e n t a l c r it ic a l t o w e a lt h r e s o u r c e s in r e d u c in g c r e a t io n in lo w p o v e r t y , f ig h t in g h u n g e r , i n c o tm e acl ocua n titr a e sis. e s s e n t ia l n d o l o wae r ih g r c h ti lio n , “… a u r n p il a t we l t n c e a d a c c o u n t in g f o r a q u a r t e r o f w e a l t h ocr rt e a itt io n in t h e m al y p o o r e s t c o u n t r ie s , w h il e s u c h a s h a r e is o n l y 2 % in t h e w o r l d ’s r ic h e s t c o u n t r ie s .”
  • 7. Our Capital Space… and our Economic Compass… Natural Capital tal al Capi n& Soci Huma Financial & Physical Capital “We cannot manage what we do not measure” 7
  • 9. The Global Green New Deal • Revive the world economy, create new and decent jobs, and protect the vulnerable • Reduce carbon dependency, ecosystem degradation, and water scarcity - 1% of GDP in green sectors over two years • Eliminate persistent poverty by 2015…achieve the MDGs • Seed a process of transformative change by rebalancing financial and economic capital, human capital and natural capital From : “Rethinking the Economic Recovery: A Global Green New Deal”, UNEP, Feb 2009
  • 11. G20 Green Stimulus Spending Per Sector (US$ Billion) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 er r id te EE il es he Ra Gr as ow l Ot ing hic /w eP S/ Ve ld er CC i bl Bu at n wa o W rb ne Ca Re w Lo Source: HSBC Global Research, UNEP
  • 12. South Africa’s Green Stimulus • S o u t h A f r ic a la u n c h e d a $ 7 . 5 b n f is c a l s t i m u l u s f o r 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 11. • A r o u n d 11% o r $ 0 . 8 b i l l i o n w a s a l l o c a t e d t o
  • 13. Beyond Green Stimulus: Transition towards a Green Economy
  • 14. Definition of Green Economy • A G r e e n E c o n o m y is c h a r a c t e r iz e d b y s u b s t a n t ia lly in c r e a s e d in v e s t m e n t s in e c o n o m ic s e c t o r s t h a t b u ild o n a nd e nha nc e the e a rth’ s n a t u r a l c a p it a l o r r e d u c e e c o lo g ic a l s c a r c it ie s a n d e n v ir o n m e n t a l r is k s . • T h e s e in v e s t m e n t s a r e d r iv e n b y o r s u p p o r t e d b y n a t io n a l p o lic y
  • 16. Fostering a Green Economy in Africa “We see the green economy as an opportunity to respond to the notion that there is a trade-off to be made between faster economic growth and sustainable development, and the preservation of our environment” President Jacob Zuma, South Africa
  • 17. Enhancing natural capital, Expanding wealth creation • A p p r o x im a t e ly 2 . 6 b illio n p e o p le r e ly o n • 10 % i n c r e a s e i n a g r ic u lt u r a l f a r m y ie ld s - > 7 % p r o d u c t io n r e d u c t io n in s ys te m s fo r p o v e r t y in A f r ic a , • t h e2i r l im el ll ii o n o d 5 5 v i ho m o r e t h a n 5 % in s m a ll f a r m s A s ia (FAO 2 0 0 9 ) w o r ld w id e , 4 0 4 m illio n le s s t h a n t w o • G r e e n f a r m in g p r a c t ic e s h a v e he c ta re s of in c r e a s e d y ie ld s , la n d ( N a g a y e t s e s p e c ia lly o n 2 0 0 5 ) s m a ll f a r m s , • SA m in cl lr e a sr emins o v e r a l l G D P c o min g f b oemt a g e ic unl t7u 9 a a n a b o r n a fa r w r e r l l d c uplrt ov a c t iv 6 y is o n a v e r a g e 2 .5 t ime s mo r e e f f e c t iv e in r a is in g i d u t e it 0 % 18 0 % . o f t a e a b oe lsa o f d t h e p o o r e s t q u in t il e in d e v e l o p in g c o u n t r ie s h r in c l me n ( H e r r tehn ne at n ae lq. u iv a l e n t in c r e a s e in G D P c o min g f r o m n o n - a a g r ic uUNEP –u –rGREEN ECONOMYo r p r o d u c t iv it y . l UNEPGREEN ECONOMYb INITIATIVE t a l l a INITIATIVE
  • 18. Uganda’s Organic Agriculture Transformation O r g a n ic A g r ic u lt u r e 4 8 - 6 8 % lo w e r c a r b o n e m is s io n C arbon S e q u e s t r a t io n O r g a n ic f o o d & d r in k s : 97% of re ve nue s in O E C D c o u n t r ie s S $ 2 2 . 8 m i l ( 2 0 0 7 /8 ) A $ 50 8n % of b 0 S $ 6 . 2 m i l ( 2 0 0 4 /5 ) g l o p ao d u c e r br l S $ 3 . 7 m i l ( 2 0 0 3 /4 ) ma r k e te l o p i n g in d e v O A E x p o r t s in U g a n d a g r o w in g n tt r i e s c ou a UNEP – Green Economy Initiative 10% pe r
  • 19. Greening Industrialisation Comparison of Energy Intensities Unit of energy use per unit of GDP (kg of oil per constant 2005 PPP $ 0.45 0.4 0.35 equivalent) 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1994 1996 1999 2000 2002 2006 1991 1995 1997 1998 2001 2003 2005 2007 1990 1992 1993 2004 Year World Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Source: International Energy Agency, and World Bank PPP data.
  • 20. GDP and Environment Performance Index in Africa Relationship between 2010 EPI and GDP for African Countries Environmental Performance Index 100.0 90.0 Mauritius 80.0 Ivory Coast 70.0 Namibia Tunisia Morocco Algeria Egypt 60.0 (EPI) Kenya Libya 50.0 South Africa Ethiopia 40.0 Cameroon Angola Nigeria 30.0 Senegal 20.0 Niger 2 R = 0.0445 10.0 0.0 4.50E+08 1.00E+11 2.00E+11 3.00E+11 GDP (2010 US$) T h e E P I is c o n s t r u c t e d f r o m t h e s c o r e s o f t w o p o lic y o b je c t iv e s : E n v ir o n m e n t a l H e a lt h , a n d E c o s y s t e m V it a lit y . e : 2 0 10 E n v ir o n m e n t P e r f o r m a n c e I n d e x
  • 21. The Challenge of Energy • Limited access to energy is one of the greatest challenges to achieve the MDGs in Africa. • African firms lose 5% of their sales due to frequent power outages, a figure that rises to 20% for informal firms unable to afford backup generation. • Overall, the economic costs of power shortage are 1 to 2% of GDP (World Bank, 2010). • Investments in clean energy remain minor in Africa, totalling $0.9 billion in 2009 (SEFI, 2010).
  • 22. Green Jobs through Clean Energy • A b o u t 2 . 3 m illio n jo b s in r e n e w a b le e n e r g ie s in c o m p a r is o n t o 2 m illio n e m p lo y e d in o il & g a s r e f in in g in d u s t r y i n 19 9 9 . • G lo b a lly , in v e s t in g U S $ 6 3 0 b n in t h e
  • 23. Harnessing Africa’s Clean Energy Potential Source: REN21, Figures from Renewable Energy Potentials 2008
  • 24. Enabling Just Transitions Pricing Instruments Sustainable Public Procurement Favoring Green over Brown Draw lessons Describe major • In c e n t iv iz e green policies • C re a te in v e s t m e n t • G ove rnm and s and e nt s t im u la t e • From m a rke ts c orrec t e n a b lin g p o lic ie s n e Capacity v e g a t i Building • G ove rnm and fo r g r e e n c o n d it io n e x t e r n a lit ie e nts in f r a s t r u c goods s s • P r iv a t e ture c a n and • “ E n a b le in v e s t o r s id e n t if ie d s e r v ic e s in s e c t o r e nc ourag the • b u s in e s s e p r iv a t e e n a b le r s " es c ha p te rs s e c tor to in in v e s t in d e v e lo p in e n v ir o n m e g n t a lly c o u n t r ie s s u s t a in a b l UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE UNEP – GREEN ECONOMY INITIATIVE
  • 25. Measuring Progress: Green Economy Indicators A s e t o f in d ic a t o r s c a p t u r in g d if f e r e n t a s p e c t s o f a g r e e n e c o n o m ic t r a n s it io n • In v e s t m e n t , Suppl y De ma n d e m p lo y m e n t , a n d o u t p u t in k e y s e c tors of the g re e n e c onomy • D e c o u p lin g e c o n o m ic g r o w th fr o m im p a c t s o n t h e e n v ir o n m e n t Green Economy • Ag g re g a te in d ic a t o r s o f UNEP – Green Economy Initiative e c o n o m ic
  • 26. Supporting National Initiatives: Green Economy Advisory Services
  • 27. Current Active Engagement 2 0 10 – 2 0 12 r o l l o u t c o u n t r i e s • A f r ic a : R e g i o n a l p r o j e c t i n 7 c o u n t r i e s - B u r k in a F a s o , E g y p t , G h a n a , K e n y a , R w a n d a , S e n e g a l, S o u t h A f r ic a . • E a s t A s ia : C h i n a , I n d o n e s i a , P N G , P h ilip p in e s , R e p . K o r e a . • E u r o p e : A r m e n ia , A z e r b a ija n , M o ld o v a , U k r a in e . • L a t in A me r ic a a n d C a r ib b e a n : B a r b a d o s , D e liv e r a b le s : B r a z il, D o m in ic a , • G r e e n E cx ocno m yr e g io p ia lg i n i t i a t i v e i n t h e Me i o – S c on n S t ur db e s a n . C a i ibe • G r e e nA S ia c Jt o r dSat n ,d L e s g u e o f A r a b • We s t s e: or u iea • G t a teens .J o b s S re • E n a b lin g p o lic ie s
  • 28. More Information UNEP Green Economy Website http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/

Editor's Notes

  1. Sources: unemployment numbers ILO Fuel prices: IEA Food facts: World Bank Ecosystem fact: A new report commissioned by the European Commission – ‘The Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI): The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target’ Climate fact: The Economics of Climate Change - The Stern Review’
  2. On the GDP losses: To give an idea of the scale of these number (-5 to -10% of global GDP), the current crisis which have had the impact that we know was expected to reduce the global GDP by about 3% in 2009 (IMF).
  3. To the richest countries of the world natural capital only accounts for 2 percent of the wealth but to the poorest natural capital accounts for 26 percent of the wealth. Source: Where is the wealth of nations?
  4. We need to navigate a complex, three-dimensional economic space and what we use to navigate is largely an outdated compass… new metrics are required for policy targeting to become relevant to our future
  5. Most green stimulus speding went to sustainable transport systems, followed by energy infrastructure, water supply and waste management, and energy efficiency in the building sector.
  6. A Global Green New Deal (GGND) : a research report, a policy brief and an update to call upon governments to scale up, and expedite the disbursement of, green stimulus packages, implement supportive policy reforms, and strengthen international cooperation in the context of the financial and economic crisis. MORE IN NEXT SLIDE A Green Economy Coalition : around 20 leading NGOs, business groups, and intergovernmental agencies to gear societies towards a green economy – letters to G20 leaders. Country level assistance : S. Korea – review of national Green New Deal policy, China – national and international forums as well as policy inputs into the national development plan, requests for assistance from Azerbaijan, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Dominican Republic, Greece, Haiti, Kenya, Indonesia, Panama, Russia, Rwanda, Uruguay… Regional initiatives : East Asia : the GEI team has prepared a review of the Green Growth Vision of South Korea. The report was released in September. The GEI team is currently developing a "low-carbon, green growth roadmap for East Asia“ with support from the South Korean government West Asia : Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, Lebanon and UAE and the League of Arab States (October 2009) have held their green economy workshops under the auspices of local governments and with support from the private sector. China : UNEP to support policy research (feeding into five-year plan), a forum was held in August, and a field survey will be conducted. Uruguay & Panama : UNEP has been requested to support a country project on green economy. Follow-up is expected. African Green Economy Initiative : UNEP is in discussions with the EU to develop a green economy initiative for East Africa. UN-wide Joint Crisis Initiative on Green Economy : a joint statement by 22 UN agencies including BWIs highlighting key policy reforms in support of a green economic transformation; and a joint programme of action at global, regional and country levels involving about 30 UN agencies. A continuation of the Green Jobs Initiative – See coming slides A global Green Economy Report – See coming slides TEEB – See coming slides
  7. Source of Chart: Greenjobs report Employment potential in modern biomass is very significant in developing countries. In Nigeria, a biofuels industry based on cassava and sugar cane crops could provide jobs for 200,000 people. India could generate 900,000 jobs by 2025 in biomass gasification. The Sahara desert could provide a large source of clean power for the Mediterranean region and Europe. A “desertec” project under consideration could establish a network of renewable power generating sources from a a 400 billion euro (US$555.3 billion) solar power project in Africa. DESERTEC could meet two-thirds of the energy needs of North Africa and the Middle East and a large part Europe’s energy demand by 2050. In addition to providing power to partner nations and cutting carbon emissions, additional benefits include excess heat for desalination. Each plant of the solar power generating units has to be cooled and using saltwater to do the cooling could desalinate if properly designed, using principles of resource efficiency. Clean Energy and Clean Tech-not starting from ground zero Greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 80 per cent and finite natural resources from fossil fuels to metals need to be more efficiently used and re-used. UNEP's Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative renewable energy investments rose to $160 billion in 2007, up from $100 billion in 2006. Norway announced this month that it intends to double its national research fund for renewables to $3.4 billion. This year the UK announced a $100 billion investment to build 4,000 onshore and 3,000 offshore wind turbines by 2020-while creating some 160,000 jobs. The global market for environmental products and services currently runs at around $1,370 billion or $1,000 billon Euro according to German consultants Roland Berger. The market in 2020 could double to $2,740 billon or Euro 2,200 billion. Some 50 countries including a dozen developing countries, have set renewable energy targets including Mexico; Argentina, Brazil, Dominican Republic, China, India, the Philippines, Iran, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Senegal, South Africa and Uganda. Globally some 300,000 people are employed in wind power and maybe 170,000 in solar. Over 600,000 are employed in solar thermal-most of these in China. Nearly 1.2 million are employed in biomass energy in four countries-Brazil, USA, Germany and China. Overall 2.3 million are employed in renewable energy sector-a conservative figure. Kleiner Perkins, the venture capital firm that supported the establishment of Google, Netscape and Amazon.com, recently directed $100 million to new companies working on lowering C02 emissions. Clean Tech investment in China will totaled an estimated $580 in 2007 million and is likely to total more than $720 million in 2008 A shift towards renewable energy and clean technologies is already underway . This is as a result of the existing UN climate change agreements and in the anticipation of a deep and decisive new deal in Copenhagen in late 2009 that will better price carbon Numerous shining examples exist on how to accelerate a transition to a low or even zero carbon economy including feed-in tariffs such as those that were introduced a few years ago in Germany. The German renewable sector, for example, now already generates $240 billion in annual revenue, employs 250,000 people, and is expected to provide more jobs than the country's auto industry by 2020. Rural Energy-not starting from ground zero Two billion people globally do not yet have electricity, oil or gas to cook food and for daily living. This perpetuates the poverty trap and undermines attempts to achieve the UN Millennium Development Goals while putting pressure on economically-important ecosystems such as forests for fuel-wood and charcoal. It is a crisis but also an opportunity including a business one given the potential size of the market for alternative energy systems The Clean Development Mechanism of the UN's Kyoto Protocol is starting to reach some of the smaller developing economies. This is in part as a result of initiatives including the UN's Nairobi Framework of 2006 that is building the capacity of countries in, for example sub-Saharan Africa, to access the mechanism. Other measures have included awareness-raising among banks and industry players on the Continent to new green finance opportunities. The main countries benefiting to date have been the rapidly developing economies such as China, Brazil, India and South Africa. CDM starting to take-off in smaller developing countries The new figures for Africa, compiled by UNEP Risoe Centre in Denmark, indicate that this is changing with the first CDM projects emerging over the past 18 months in six countries - the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Mali and Senegal. These include an oil well, gas flare reduction project in the DRC and a run-of river hydroelectric project in Madagascar. In Kenya new projects include a 35MW extension of geothermal, hot rocks, generation and a sugar cane waste-into-energy project with Mumias Sugar Company. The total of CDM projects in Africa still remains low compared to a global tally of close to 3,500 CDM projects, but does mark a departure from the very low levels of the past. Assuming governments agree on a deep and decisive new climate agreement in 2009, Africa overall could see roughly 230 projects by 2012. These could cumulatively generate over 65 million certified emission reductions, worth close to one billion US dollars at a conservative carbon credit price of $15. Other measures might include different risk assessment by developed countries; the us weather derivatives and other insurance-linked products are being piloted and bundling numerous smaller projects including cross border ones together, to make them more attractive to investors. For example the UNEP Solar and Wind Energy Resources assessment has mapped more than 2,000 MW of wind energy potential n Ghana, mainly along the border with Togo. CDM projects that reflect the transport, heating and cooling and industrial emissions from developing country urban areas could also be a way forward and contribute to greening cities. Feed-in tariffs and tax changes, such as VAT on clean energy and energy saving products, may assist rural electrification. Other smart instruments include micro-credit schemes and buying down the interest on loans . UNEP has worked with two banks in India to reduce the cost of solar loans in rural areas from 12 per cent to five and then two per cent. 100,000 people were able to afford solar power. The project is now self-financing. Similar initiatives have kick-started the solar water heating market in Tunisia. In Mexico, UNEP is working with UNDP on a Global Environment Facility project with similar aims. The programme will cooperate with Mexico's National Solar Water Heater Program (known as PROCALSOL) to develop a supportive regulatory environment and to assist in building the market demand and the supply chain for solar water heaters. The aim is to reach the total capacity of 2,500,000 cubic metres of installed systems in Mexico by the end of 2011. It also aims to support continuing sustainable growth of the market beyond the project's life in order to reach the target to 23.5 million cubic metres of installed capacity by 2020. This has been estimated to correspond to an estimated cumulative greenhouse gas reduction potential of over 27 million tons of CO2 by 2020. By 2020, Mexico might have the potential to generate jobs for some 150,000 people in this sector as a result of the new project. Sustainable Agriculture-not starting from ground zero Agriculture remains a major employer in the world, providing jobs to about 40% of the total world labour force. The Global Green New Deal should include a major international program. This should be led by the Food and Agriculture Organisation, to provide long-term support for investing in land restoration, soil and water conservation, integrated pest management, organic production, infrastructure development, extension services, and market support in the developing world. Organic agriculture triggers very polarized views, seen by some as the saviour and others as a niche, even luxury product unable to meet the needs of billions of people. Studies indicate that organic agriculture in both the North and the South employees more people. But what of the wider benefits? A new survey by the UN Conference on Trade and the Environment and UNEP in East Africa found that over 90 per cent of studies show that organic or near organic agriculture had benefits for soil fertility; water control; improved water tables, carbon sequestration and biodiversity. This allows farmers to extend the growing season in marginal areas. The research in East Africa was among 1.6 million organic or near organic farmers from seven countries working on 1.4 million hectares. Other findings include an increase in crop yields of 128 per cent since switching. Higher incomes too as a result of not having to buy fertilizers and pesticides; more food availability; higher prices paid through certification schemes for both export and domestic markets-addresses poverty in environmentally friendly way. Close to 90 per cent of cases showed increase in farm and household incomes and because organic agriculture is more knowledge intensive it has lead to improvements in education; community bonds and cooperation on market access. The report concludes:" Organic and near-organic agricultural methods and technologies are ideally suited for many poor, marginalized smallholder farmers in Africa, as they require minimal or no external inputs, use locally and naturally available materials to produce high-quality products, and encourage a whole systemic approach to farming that is more diverse and resistant to stress". R+D: A perennial challenge Governments also need to consider stepping up research into perennial crops. Experts suggest that 'moving back to the future' to these kinds of multi-year crops with deep roots can also boost soil fertility and stability 50-fold while assisting in adapting to climate change Perennial crops are also 50 per cent better at carbon capture and storage than their annual cousins, according to some estimates. Because they do not need to be planted every year, they use less farm machinery and require fewer inputs - reducing greenhouse gas emissions further. Environment Infrastructure Investments and REDD - not starting from ground zero Over the past 300 years, the global forest area has shrunk by around 40 per cent; half the globe's wetlands have been lost since 1900 and human - led species extinction rates are now 1,000 higher than the 'natural' rate of extinction. Some 60 per cent of the Earth's ecosystems and the goods and services they provide are now degraded. Losses of natural areas between 2000 and 2050 are projected to be 7.5 million square km, roughly the size of Australia, if existing economic models continue unfocused and undirected. The economic losses have recently been emerging. For example in the Caribbean, tourism losses linked with an 80 per cent decline in coral reefs are set to rise to $300 million a year. Some Estimates of Returns on Natural Infrastructure Investments An annual investment of $45 billion could conserve services from protected area ecosystems which deliver an estimated $5 trillion a year-a good cost benefit ration of 100:1. Coral reefs, whose fishery, tourism and flood protection services are estimated at between $100,000 and $600,000 per square km, could be conserved for an investment of close to $780 per square km or 0.2 per cent of the value of the ecosystem protected. Deforestation contributes close to 20 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions-$17 billion to over $30 billion annually could halve this while securing livelihoods and boosting conservation-related employment in tropical countries. A global marine protected area network, involving the closure of 20 per cent of total fishing grounds could result in profit losses of an estimated $270 million annually. But could sustain fisheries worth $80-100 billion a year; assist in conserving an estimated 27 million jobs while generating one million new ones and protect food supplies for over one billion people, especially in developing countries whose main or sole source of animal protein comes from fish.. Emerging Public and Private Natural Infrastructure Instruments Under the UN climate convention for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) to be included in a post-2012 deal up to payments for ecosystem services. Norway for example has pledged close to $3 billion for REDD; Costa Rica has invested around $200 million in protection of forests for ecosystem services and Mexico is paying 1.5 million rural people to manage forests and watersheds. The United States spends more than $1.7 billion a year in direct payments to farmers for environmental protection. The European Union promotes environmentally-friendly agriculture and forestry under its Euro 4.5 billion Rural Development programmes. New instruments are emerging such as habitat and 'bio-banking'. In the United States, companies and individuals can buy wetland mitigation banks. Trade in wetland bank credits reached around $350 million in 2006. 'Endangered species credits' are being generated by a biodiversity cap-and-trade system, also in the United States. The market volume has been around $40 million with over 44,000 hectares of endangered species habitat protected. A similar scheme, created through the BioBanking Bill of 2006, has been piloted in New South Wales, Australia. Certification schemes involving consumers and companies are also becoming more creative. In South Africa's Cape Floral Kingdom, a biodiversity hot spot, wine producers who commit 10 per cent of their vineyard to conservation can use a special label. The market for sustainably produced commodities could reach $60 billion by 2010. There is an urgent need for governments to promote a sharp increase in financial flows via creative market mechanisms and smart instruments that reward those investing in rather than degrading nature-based assets. Sustainable cities-not starting from ground zero Huge opportunities exist for cutting greenhouse gas emissions and generating employment. In some countries the built environment is responsible for up to 40% of total energy use. A worldwide transition to energy-efficient buildings would create millions of jobs, as well as "greening" existing employment for many of the estimated 111 million people already working in the construction sector. Investments in improved energy efficiency in buildings could generate an additional 2-3.5 million green jobs in Europe and the United States alone, with the potential much higher in developing countries. Several cities are now developing sustainable transport projects including Bus Rapid Transport schemes. In Mexico City BRT schemes alongside cycle-ways and new traffic measures, envisage a 10 per cent cut in transport-related smog and fine air particles and average annual benefits of over $750 million. The Marikina bikeway project, which is focusing on safe cycle ways in Manila, Philippines, plans to double the share of journeys by pedal power by 2015. It is estimated that for every dollar of the around $2 million invested there will be a two dollar return in health and wider environmental benefits. Such projects are also helping to boost the incomes of local, often poor, people according to the new analysis by the World Bank which is one of the implementing agencies of Global Environment Facility-funded initiatives. In Lima, Peru use of bicycles twice a day results in per capita savings of up to $7.60 per month. The amount of money saved is equivalent to just under 10 per cent of a Lima resident's monthly energy bill. Better use of information technology, demand management and planning and market instruments are also forming part of such schemes. For example, housing and employment should be focused along transit hubs so as to shorten journeys to buses and cycle ways. Congestion charging, parking fees and tax credit for more efficient forms of transport may also be a boon. Finally, simple measures like ensuring buses and vehicles are properly maintained and serviced can deliver significant benefits in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and local air quality. "In Rio de Janeiro, improved operation of diesel buses has shown to result in annual savings of 40 million liters of fuel - a 12.5 per cent reduction - averting 107,800 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year." For More Information Please Contact Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson and Head of Media, on Tel: +254 733 632755; after 17 Oct 41 79 596 57 37, E-mail: nick.nuttall@unep.org
  8. More detais Key sectors: energy, buildings, transport, manufacturing, tourism, waste management, agriculture, forests, fisheries and water// Indicators reflect policy actions, such as the share of renewables in the energy mix Measures of the intensity of energy, resource and material use and waste generation for specific sectors// Indicators capture the outcomes/impacts of policies and investments to green key sectors Measures of the intensity of energy, resource and material use and waste generation for specific sectors// Indicators capture the outcomes/impacts of policies and investments to green key sectors
  9. Interest from other UN organisations includes: UNIDO’s Green Industry Initiative, UNESCAP’s Green Growth Initiative, and ILO’s Green Jobs Initiative (with UNEP). UNCTAD – Green Trade. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is already championing the Green Economy at international conferences. China is advancing fast on the Green Economy track. It has allocated over US$142 billion over the next three years to spend on renewable energy, clean technology, and pollution control.