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売れる歌詞の作り方
randomForest法を用いたテキストマイニング
アウトライン
背景

          目的

アウトライン   アプローチ

         研究内容

          まとめ
背景

          目的

アウトライン   アプローチ

         研究内容

         まとめ
背景


     音楽不況

4
CDの売上枚数
                          シングル   アルバム

     400,000,000

     300,000,000
枚数




     200,000,000

     100,000,000

              0
               19971998                 2007   20092010




                          大幅に減少
音楽不況
売れ続けるアーティスト
−いきものがかり
 アルバム「いきものばかり」132万枚
−西野カナ
 アルバム「to LOVE」71万枚

−FUNKY MONKEY BABYS
 アルバム「BEST」55万枚
売れ続けるアーティストの共通点




若者が共感する歌詞
若者が共感する歌詞



CDの売上を伸ばせるかも
背景

          目的

アウトライン   アプローチ

         研究内容

          まとめ
目的
      共感する歌詞
若者が
      共感しない歌詞

を分類するモデルを構築しよう
背景

          目的

アウトライン   アプローチ

         研究内容

          まとめ
アプローチ

テキストマイニング

使用したソフト

KH CORDER
モデルの構築
randomForest法
樹木モデルの集団学習により
高精度の分類・予測を行う




メリット     精度の高さ、扱える説明変数の多さ
背景

          目的

アウトライン   アプローチ

         研究内容

          まとめ
手順

1、訓練データ(正例、負例)を用意する


2、訓練データから予測モデルをたてる


3、実際に歌詞を予測モデルに入れて判定する
訓練データを集める
「うたまっぷ」から歌詞データを入手


     西野カナ、いきものがかり、
正例
     FUNKY MONKEY BABYS

     [自分が知っているあんまり売れてない歌手]
負例 andymori、NonaReeves、クラムボン、
     星野源、清竜人 ※無作為に選択
訓練データの加工

 KH CODERを使って
集めた歌詞データを加工!!
実際のデータ




説明変数は2260個!!
モデルを立てる

Rのパッケージ「randomForest」を使って
  歌詞を分類するモデルを立てる!!
Rのコード
> data <- read.csv(file = "data.csv") #データをRに読み込む
> ndata <- nrow(data)                #データの行
> ridx <- sample(ndata,ndata*0.5)  #データを2分割する
> data.learn <- data[ridx,]          #訓練用
> data.test <- data[-ridx,]          #判定用
> forest <- randomForest(artist~.,data = data.learn)
                                     #randomForestでモデル構築 
> pred.forest <- predict(forest,newdata = data.test,type = "class") 
                                     #実際に分類
精度
> table(pred.forest,data.test[,1])
                                      実際

                                 正例        負例
                正例               69        21
予測
                負例                4        93
                   黄色いセルが正しく分類
                        正解率=87%!!
使い方
   判別したい曲のデータを入れる


   > predict(forest,newdata = test,type = "class")

              1               2
   positive example  negative example


1行目:若者が共感する歌詞                     2行目:若者が共感しない歌詞
背景

          目的

アウトライン   アプローチ

         研究内容

          まとめ
まとめ
     モデルが構築できた!!

  売り出す前の歌詞をモデルにかければ
若者が共感する歌詞であるかどうかがわかる

つまりその曲が売れるかどうか判別可能!!?

             秋元康も夢じゃない!?
参考資料
ランダムフォレスト法による文章の書き手の同定
                  (金 明哲,村上 征勝)

はじめてでもわかるrandomForest入門
                  (hamada koichi)

Rによるtwitterテキストマイニング
                  (AntiBaysian)
ご清聴ありがとうございました
使用したソフト
KH CORDER       テキストマイニング

Lyrics Master   歌詞データの収集

txtjoin15
                歌詞データの編集
Speeeeed
関連研究
はてなブログ「あんちべ」
twitterで自分がつぶやいたtweetが
ウケるか(お気に入りにされるか)どうかを
randomForest法を用いて判断
関連研究
randomForest法による文章の書き手の同定
                   (金・村上,2007)


randomForestを用いて
10人が書いた200編の小説の筆者を予測


 randomForest法が持つ高精度の予測能力を証明
音楽不況
原因
−レンタル・中古市場の隆盛
−違法コピー・違法アップロードの蔓延
−コンテンツ市場の多様化
音楽不況
原因
−レンタル・中古市場の隆盛
−違法コピー・違法アップロードの蔓延
−コンテンツ市場の多様化
インターネット・携帯電話の普及で
人々が音楽に使う消費の割合が少なくなった

特に若者の音楽離れが深刻に−−−
若者の興味
以前            現在

ジャンル 市場の多様化
音楽性
完成度
              共感

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