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8

7. Ranking Informational Content of Incoming Trade
Choice of Action
Change Bid/Ask Trade on Interdealer Market
(Exogenous Trade) (Endogenous Trade)
Choice of Counterpart
Trade with Well Informed Dealer
(Smart Market Timer, Contrarian)
Trade with Informed Dealer
(Market Timer, Quasi-Contrarian)
Trade with Uninformed Dealer
(Averages)
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wr wkh rqhv fkdudfwhul}hg e| kljkhu lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh zdqw wr whvw
zkhwkhu h{shulphqwdwlrq lv rqh ri wkh vwudwhjlhv pdunhw pdnhuv sod|1
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lq fdvh zkhuh wkh| uhfhlyh sulylohjhg lqirupdwlrq1
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18. lqirupdwlrq0h{sorlwdwlrq vkrxog eh pruh fruuhodwhg wr hqgrjhqrxv wudglqj1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh
ghflvlrq wr wudgh hqgrjhqrxvo| vkrxog eh vwurqjhvw lq wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh lqfrplqj wudgh
lv yhu| lqirupdwlyh/ dqg zhdnhvw lq wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh lqfrplqj wudgh lv xqlqirupdwlyh1
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vkrxog fkdqjh dw wkh wlph ri wkh dxfwlrq1
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dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh ryhudoo pdunhw ghpdqg vfkhgxoh dqg oltxlglw| vkrfnv1 Dw
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ghqh wzr w|shv ri vwudwhjlhv= klglqj dqg h{shulphqwlqj1
Wkh qhw ehqhw ri sodflqj rughuv zlwk lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv lv d srvlwlyh ixqfwlrq
ri wkh rz ydoxh iurp h{shulphqwdwlrq + ,1 Xvlqj wkh ghqlwlrq ri +htxdwlrq :, zh
fdq uhodwh wkh ghflvlrq wr sodfh dq rughu zlwk lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv wr wkh glhuhqwldo
ehwzhhq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu zkr lv sodflqj wkh rughu dqg wkdw ri
wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhu zkrp wkh %klw% pdunhw pdnhu lv dssurdfklqj1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh
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C C
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wzr jurxsv zklfk zh zrxog fdoo %vqhdnlhv% dqg %vnhswlfv%1 Vnhswlfv sodfh wkhlu wudgh zlwk
frxqwhusduwv zkr duh pruh lqiruphg wkdq wkh rqhv zkrp wkh| duh uhfhlylqj wkhlu rughuv
iurp1 Vqhdnlhv sodfh wkhlu rughuv zlwk frxqwhusduwv zkr duh ohvv lqiruphg wkdq wkh rqhv
zkrp wkh| duh uhfhlylqj wkhlu rughuv iurp1 Wkh lqwxlwlrq lv wkdw wkh iruphu wu| wr ohduq
47

20. e| klwwlqj pruh lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv/ zkloh wkh odwwhu rqo| dssurdfk wkh ohvv lqiruphg
rqhv lq rughu wr klgh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq1 Wkh vnhswlfv duh pruh ulvn dyhuvh dqg/ wkhuhiruh/
dwwhpsw wr ohduq1 Wkh vqhdnlhv duh rqo| frqfhuqhg zlwk surwv dqg wkhuhiruh dwwhpsw wr
klgh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq wr h{sorlw lw ehwwhu1
Hpslulfdoo| wklv lpsolhv wkdw/ lq wkh fdvh ri klglqj/ zh h{shfw d qhjdwlyh uhodwlrqvkls
ehwzhhq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu zkr sodfhv wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh dqg
wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv zlwk zkrp wkh klw pdunhw pdnhu
sodfhv dq rughu1 Lq wkh fdvh ri h{shulphqwlqj/ rq wkh frqwudu|/ d srvlwlyh uhodwlrqvkls lv
suhglfwhg1
K|srwkhvlv 7= Pdunhw pdnhuv* uhdfwlrq wr pdunhw yrodwlolw| ghshqgv rq wkh
vwudwhj| wkh| sod|1 Yrodwlolw| lqfuhdvhv vqhdnlhv* lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh
dqg uhgxfhv vnhswlfv*v rqh1
Lq whupv ri wkh uhodwlrqvkls zlwk wkh pdunhw yrodwlolw| wkh wzr fodvvhv ri pdunhw pdnhuv
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C 2 2 u+{ 4,2
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Wklv lpsolhv wkdw=
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C2 C2
wkdw lv/ kljkhu xqfhuwdlqw| lq wkh pdunhw kdv d qhjdwlyh lpsdfw rq h{shulphqwdwlrq iru
wkh vnhswlfv dqg d srvlwlyh rqh iru wkh vqhdnlhv1 Wkh uhdvrq fdq eh irxqg lq wkh dyhuvlrq
wr ulvn= wkh kljkhu wkh yrodwlolw|/ wkh kljkhu wkh ulvn/ wkh ohvv wkh vnhswlfv h{shulphqw/ dqg
wkhuhiruh wkh ohvv wkh| uhvruw wr hqgrjhqrxv wudgh1 Wkh rssrvlwh lv wuxh iru wkh vqhdnlhv
zkr/ ehlqj ohvv ulvn dyhuvh/ xvh wkh rssruwxqlw| surylghg e| kljkhu yrodwlolw| wr klgh wkhlu
wudgh ehwwhu1 Wklv doorzv wkhp wr lqfuhdvh wkhlu hqgrjhqrxv wudgh1
e A i @h!i| @?_ | i #@|@ti|
Lq Lwdo|/ wkhuh duh wkuhh pdlq w|shv ri wudghg erqgv= Wuhdvxu| Qrwhv/ Wuhdvxu| Erqgv
dqg qdqfldoo| lqgh{hg erqgv1 Wuhdvxu| Erqgv +Exrql gho whvrur Srolhqqdol/ ru EWS, duh
phglxp0 dqg orqj0whup frxsrq erqgv1 Ilqdqfldoo| lqgh{hg erqgv +Fhuwlfdwl gl Fuhglwr
48

21. gho whvrur ru FFW, duh phglxp0orqj whup frxsrq erqgv zlwk wkh ydoxh ri wkh frxsrq lq0
gh{hg wr vkruw0whup Wuhdvxu| Eloov1 Wuhdvxu| Qrwhv +Fhuwlfdwl gho Whvrur d ]hur Frxsrq/
ru FW], duh 50|hdu }hur0frxsrq erqgv1
Erqgv duh prvwo|

22. wudghg rq dq lqwhu0ghdohu edvhg Wuhdvxu| Erqg Pdunhw +Phufdwr
Whohpdwlfr ghl wlwrol gl Vwdwr/ PWV,1 Wkh PWV pdunhw lv d vfuhhq0edvhg v|vwhp/ rshudwlqj
ehwzhhq 133 d1p1 dqg 8133 s1p1
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693,/ ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv +73, dqg _sulpdu| ghdohuv% ru _vshfldolvwv%+49,1 Rqo| edqnv/
lqyhvwphqw upv dqg lqvxudqfh frpsdqlhv duh doorzhg wr dfw dv ghdohuv1 Ruglqdu| ghdohuv
pd| rqo| sodfh rughuv zlwk pdunhw pdnhuv dqg fdqqrw srvw elg dqg dvn sulfhv1 Pdunhw
pdnhuv frpplw wkhpvhoyhv wr frqwlqxrxvo| srvwlqj elg dqg dvn sulfhv1 Wkh| pd| sodfh
rughuv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv1e Vshfldolvwv duh pdunhw pdnhuv zkr pxvw wudgh d plql0
pxp shufhqwdjh ri hdfk w|sh ri erqg rq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhw dqg sxufkdvh d plqlpxp
shufhqwdjh ri wkh erqgv ehlqj dxfwlrqhg r dw hdfk dxfwlrq1 Lq h{fkdqjh iru rshudwlqj
zlwklq pruh elqglqj wudglqj uhtxluhphqwv/ wkh| hqmr| uh0qdqflqj ehqhwv/ ehlqj hqwlwohg
wr eruurz dw d sduwlfxodu frqyhqlhqw udwh dw wkh glvfrxqw zlqgrz ri wkh Edqn ri Lwdo|1
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vhoyhv wr wudgh +ghswk,1 Pdunhw pdnhuv duh qrw dqrq|prxv h{ dqwh1 Wkdw lv/ wkh qdph ri
wkh pdunhw pdnhu dsshduv rq wkh vfuhhq qh{w wr wkh elg dqg dvn sulfhv kh lv srvwlqj1
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lqyroyhg1 Wklv pdnhv PWV yhu| vlplodu wr QDVGDT1
Wkh wudqvdfwlrq wdnhv sodfh rqo| dw wkh srvwhg sulfh1 Zkhq lw lv h{hfxwhg/ wkh qdph
ri wkh ghdohu _klw% eolqnv/ vljqdoolqj wr wkh pdunhw wkdw kh lv wudglqj dqg olvwlqj wkh sulfh

23. L?_t @hi @*Lt |h@_i_ L? | i *@? 5|LU! , U @?}i OLiihc | i Lih i*4?} 4@Lh|) Lu |h@_i ?
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lq wkh uduh fdvh zkhq d ghdohu uhfhlyhv dq rughu htxdo wr wkh pd{lpxp qxpehu ri erqgv
kh kdv frpplwwhg klpvhoi wr wudgh1 Lq wkdw fdvh/ kh dxwrpdwlfdoo| zlwkgudzv iurp wkh
pdunhw iru d shulrg qrw orqjhu wkdq 93 vhfrqgv1 D Wklv zlwkgudzdo lv wkh rqo| vljqdo wkh
pdunhw uhfhlyhv derxw wkh vl}h ri wkh wudqvdfwlrq1
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uhsruwhg rq d vshflf sdjh e| Uhxwhuv1 S
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ri wkh dxfwlrqv lv frppxqlfdwhg e| wkh Wuhdvxu| dw wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh |hdu/ zkloh wkh
qxpehu ri erqgv wkdw wr eh dxfwlrqhg r lv dqqrxqfhg rqh zhhn ehiruh1 Wkh rfldo
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doorwwhg/ zkloh wkh pdunhw dv zkroh lv lqiruphg ri wkh wrwdo qxpehu dvvljqhg/ wkh dxfwlrq
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wudqvdfwlrq/ zh kdyh gdwd vkrzlqj wkh wlph dw zklfk wkh wudqvdfwlrq lv h{hfxwhg/ wkh vl}h
ri wkh wudqvdfwlrq/ wkh sulfh dqg wkh qdph ri wkh frxqwhusduwv dqg wkh lghqwlfdwlrq ri
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25. Wr irfxv rq wkh uhdfwlrq ri wkh pdunhw pdnhu/ zh frqvlghu wkh wudqvdfwlrqv iroorzlqj
wkh ruljlqdwlqj rqh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ iru hdfk wudqvdfwlrq/ zh frqvlghu doo wkh wudqvdfwlrqv ri
wkh vdph pdunhw pdnhu lq wkh iroorzlqj 43 plqxwhv1 Wkhvh frpsulvh erwk wkh dgglwlrqdo
rughuv sodfhg zlwk wkh pdunhw pdnhu +h{rjhqrxv wudgh, dqg wkh rughuv wkdw kh sodfhv zlwk
wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv +hqgrjhqrxv wudgh,1 Zh ghqh dv hqgrjhqrxv wudgh wkh dprxqw
ri wudgh rq wkh n0wk erqg wkdw lv hqgrjhqrxvo| ruljlqdwhg e| wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu/ zkhq
kh sodfhv dq rughu zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv1 H{rjhqrxv wudgh/ rq wkh frqwudu|/ uhsuhvhqwv
wkh dprxqw ri wudgh rq wkh n0wk erqg wkdw lv qrw gluhfwo| ruljlqdwhg e| m0wk pdunhw pdnhu1
Lw frxog frph wr klp hlwkhu iru pdunhw h{rjhqrxv uhdvrqv ru ehfdxvh lw lv lqgxfhg e| d
fkdqjh lq wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv kh srvwv1
Wkh vdpsoh kdv ehhq glylghg lqwr _gd|v ehiruh wkh dxfwlrq% dqg _doo rwkhu gd|v%1
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Phwkrg ri Prphqwv/ zlwk fruuhfwlrq rq wkh yduldqfh0fryduldqfh pdwul{ wr frqwuro iru erwk
khwhurvfhgdvwlflw| dqg dxwrfruuhodwlrq1 Lq rughu wr ghdo zlwk wkh jhqhudwhg uhjuhvvruv lq
rxu hvwlpdwlrqv/ zh dgrsw wkh Sdjdq*v +4;7, dssurdfk edvhg rq lqvwuxphqwdo yduldeoh
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ex|v ehiruh sulfhv ulvh dqg vhoov ehiruh wkh| gurs lv fodvvlhg dv _lqiruphg%1 Wudglqj doorzv
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ghqhg lq whupv ri wkh ghdohu ruljlqdwlqj lw1 Wkh sulruv rq rwkhu ghdohuv ehfrph wkh edvlv
ri pdunhw pdnhuv* dvvhvvphqw ri wkh txdolw| ri lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lq wkh wudgh wkh|
uhfhlyh1 Zh zloo uhihu lqwhufkdqjhdeo| wr wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wudgh dqg wr wkh
ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu ruljlqdwlqj lw1 Zh orrn dw wkh fkdqjhv lq sulfhv ri
wkh vdph erqg lq wkh 8 plqxwhv wkdw iroorz hdfk wudqvdfwlrq dqg/ iru hdfk pdunhw pdnhu
m/ zh uxq wkh dx{loldu| uhjuhvvlrq=
S8™| @ W8™| . %8™| +4;,
lq d sdluzlvh uhodwlrq yhuvxv doo wkh rwkhu l ghdohuv iru hdfk lqglylgxdo erqg n1 Zh ghqh
W8™| dv wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri vljqhg wudghv uhfhlyhg e| wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu iurp wkh
l0wk ghdohu iru wkh n0wk erqg dw wlph w1 S8™| @ +S8™|nD S8™| , lv wkh fkdqjh lq wkh
sulfh ri wkh n0wk erqg lq wkh 8 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh wudqvdfwlrq1 Iroorzlqj Pdgkdydq/
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iroorz wr lghqwli| wudghv zlwk srvvleoh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw lv uhplqlvfhqw ri wkh vwdwlvwlfdo
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wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh ghdohu lv/ dqg wkh juhdwhu wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw
ri wkh rughu uhfhlyhg1 b
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lqiruphg1 Iru wkh vdph uhdvrq/ wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv lv orzhu iru ruglqdu| pdunhw
pdnhuv dqg wkh orzhvw iru ruglqdu| ghdohuv1
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rughu/ wkh pruh wkh pdunhw pdnhu vkrxog uhdfw wr klv rughu e| jrlqj hqgrjhqrxv1
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wkh ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv uhgluhfw wkhlu wudgh wrzdugv ohvv lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv1 Wklv
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55

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v iru wkh glhuhqw jurxsv vkrxog eh glhuhqw1
Wkh uhvxowv/ uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 7/ Sdqhov D dqg E/ vkrz wkdw wkhuh lv d vljqlfdqw
fkdqjh lq wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wkh lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh lqfrplqj wudgh dqg wkdw ri
wkh rxwjrlqj rqh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ d yhu| lqirupdwlyh vljqdo lqgxfhv wkh pdunhw pdnhu zkr
uhfhlyhv lw wr dssurdfk hlwkhu d yhu| lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhu ru d frpsohwho| xqlqiruphg
rqh1 Lqghhg/ wkh ydoxh ri lv vwurqjhu iru wkh uvw dqg wklug fodvv1
Wklv srodul}hg uhdfwlrq dw wkh djjuhjdwh ohyho vxjjhvwv wkh h{lvwhqfh ri wzr pdlq vwudwh0
jlhv1 Pdunhw pdnhuv fdq hlwkhu klgh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq e| wudglqj zlwk ohvv lqiruphg pdunhw
pdnhuv/ ru dvvhvv wkh txdolw| ri wkhlu lqirupdwlrq e| dssurdfklqj pruh lqiruphg pdunhw
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ri wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv* fkrlfhv dqg fkdudfwhulvwlfv pdnhv wkh sureohp yhu| lqyroyhg1
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56

32. pdunhw pdnhuv* shufhswlrq ri klv ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv/ zh vkrxog frqwuro iru wkh
uhdfwlrq ri doo wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv/ hvwlpdwlqj wkh furvv hodvwlflwlhv ri wkh uhdfwlrq
ixqfwlrqv iru doo wkh sdluv ri pdunhw pdnhuv lq wkh pdunhw1 Fohduo|/ wklv lv frpsxwdwlrqdoo|
fxpehuvrph dqg/ hyhq zlwk wkh ulfkqhvv ri d kljk iuhtxhqf| gdwdvhw/ xqihdvleoh1
Zh wkhuhiruh xvh dq dssurdfk lq zklfk zh uvw ghqh wkh srvvleoh dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhv
e| jurxslqj wkh pdunhw pdnhuv lq fodvvhv dffruglqj wr krprjhqrxv fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Wkhq/
zh vroyh wkh hqgrjhqhlw| sureohp e| surmhfwlqj wkh fkrlfh vsdfh +wkdw kdv d glphqvlrq
htxdo wr wkh qxpehu ri h{lvwlqj jurxsv, rqwr wkh vsdfh ri wkh fkrlfh fkdudfwhulvwlfv +wkdw
kdv wkh glphqvlrq htxdo wr wkh pxfk vpdoohu vhw ri fkdudfwhulvwlfv lq hdfk jurxs, +Ehuu|/
Ohylqvrkq dqg Sdnhv 48,1
Wkh fkrlfh vsdfh lv ghqhg rq wkh edvlv ri wkh wuhh ri dowhuqdwlyhv +Iljxuh 4,1 Wkh
pdunhw pdnhu fdq hlwkhu rshudwh rqo| e| fkdqjlqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv dqg2ru zlwkgudz
iurp wkh pdunhw/ ru gluhfwo| sodfh rughuv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv1 Li wkh pdunhw pdnhu
ghflghv wr sodfh rughuv gluhfwo| zlwk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv/ kh kdv dovr wr fkrrvh zklfk
rwkhu pdunhw pdnhu kh zdqwv wr dssurdfk1
Hdfk pdunhw pdnhu fdq fkrrvh wr sodfh wkh rughu zlwk yh glhuhqw w|shv ri pdunhw
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_frqwuduldqv%1 Wkh vpduw pdunhw wlphuv duh wkh ghdohuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv
frqghqw +zlwk frqghqfh lq h{fhvv ri 3(, duh deoh wr vxffhvvixoo| wlph wkh pdunhw/ l1h1/
wkh| ex| ehiruh dq lqfuhdvh lq sulfhv dqg vhoo ehiruh d uhgxfwlrq lq sulfhv1 Wkh pdunhw
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kdv orz nqrzohgjh derxw +frqghqfh ohyho orzhu wkdq 83(,1 Wkh frqwuduldqv duh wkh
pdunhw pdnhuv zkrp wkh pdunhw pdnhuv lv yhu| frqghqw +3( frqghqfh ohyho, iroorz
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57

33. iroorz frqwuduldq vwudwhjlhv zlwk d frqghqfh ehwzhhq 83( dqg 3(1 Wkh frqwuduldqv dqg
wkh txdvl0frqwuduldqv fdq eh frqvlghuhg dv lqwhuphgldulhv zkr kdyh rxwvlgh frqvwudlqwv
lqgxflqj wkhp wr wlph wkh pdunhw lq wkh zurqj gluhfwlrq1 Rqh uhdvrq frxog eh wkdw wkh|
lqwhuphgldwh oltxlglw| ghpdqg ru wkdw wkh| kdyh errnv zlwk dffxpxodwhg olplw0rughuv12
Frqwuduldq dqg pdunhw wlphuv fdq eh frqvlghuhg dv lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv zkr kdyh
glhuhqw lqirupdwlrq1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw wkh ghflvlrq ri d pdunhw pdnhu klw e| d pdunhw
wlphu wr dssurdfk d frqwuduldq dv zhoo dv wkh ghflvlrq ri d pdunhw pdnhu klw e| d frqwuduldq
wr klw d pdunhw wlphu fdq eh lqwhusuhwhg dv klglqj1 Wkh uhdvrq ehlqj wkdw wkh klw pdunhw
pdnhu lv dssurdfklqj d pdunhw pdnhu zkr kdv lqirupdwlrq wkdw lv glhuhqw iurp wkdw khog
e| wkh ghdohu zkr kdv sodfhg wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh1 Wkhuhiruh/ kh h{shfwv klp qrw wr eh
deoh wr pdnh xvh ri wkh dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq kh lv surylglqj zlwk klv wudgh1
Hyhu| vlqjoh wudqvdfwlrq lv d fkrlfh/ dqg wkh iuhtxhqf| ri wkh fkrlfh lv jlyhq e| wkh
qxpehu ri wudqvdfwlrqv gxulqj wkh vshflhg wlph lqwhuydo1 Hdfk dowhuqdwlyh lv vlpxowdqh0
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d pdunhw pdnhu zkr lv zhoo lqiruphg yv1 dssurdfklqj d pdunhw pdnhu zkr lv qrw lqiruphg,
dv zhoo dv zlwk doo wkh rwkhu dowhuqdwlyhv +l1h1/ qrw sodflqj dq| rughu gluhfwo| zlwk rwkhu
pdunhw pdnhuv/ exw rqo| fkdqjlqj wkh elg dqg dvn txrwhv,1
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wkdw wkh uhgxfhg irup fdq eh h{suhvvhg dv=
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58

34. wk hqgrjhqrxv dowhuqdwlyh1 Lw lv ghqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkdw wkh m0wk
pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv zlwk wkh pdunhw pdnhuv ehorqjlqj wr wkh l0wk jurxs lq wkh 43 plqxwhv
iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj wudgh/ dqg wkh wrwdo dprxqw ri wudghv +erwk hqgrjhqrxv dqg
h{rjhqrxv, wkdw kh ghdov zlwk lq wkh vdph lqwhuydo1
v f™| lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxog vhohfw wr jr h{rjhqrxv= Lw lv
ghqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu uhfhlyhv iurp rwkhu
pdunhw pdnhuv lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu/ dqg wkh wrwdo qxpehu
ri wudghv +erwk hqgrjhqrxv dqg h{rjhqrxv, wkdw kh ghdov zlwk gxulqj wkh vdph lqwhuydo1
SD
Ilqdoo|/ v™|ƒec•t @ v™| @ ' v™| lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu zrxog
vhohfw wkh l0wk hqgrjhqrxv dowhuqdwlyh/ frqglwlrqdo rq kdylqj ghflghg wr jr hqgrjhqrxv1
Wkdw lv/ lw lv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh rughuv wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu sodfhv zlwk rwkhu pdunhw
pdnhuv ehorqjlqj wr wkh l0wk fkrlfh jurxs lq wkh 43 plqxwhv iroorzlqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj
rughu/ dqg wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri rughuv wkdw/ gxulqj wkh vdph lqwhuydo/ wkh m0wk pdunhw
pdnhu sodfhv hqgrjhqrxvo|1
Wkh vwrfkdvwlf whup frqwurov iru wkh glvwulexwlrq ri pdunhw pdnhuv* suhihuhqfhv
dqg sod|v wkh uroh ri _phdq ri wkh ydoxdwlrqv wkdw hdfk pdunhw pdnhu kdv ri wkh rwkhu
pdunhw pdnhuv1% Wklv lqfoxghv wklqjv vxfk dv _foxe uhodwlrqvkls% dprqj sduwlfxodu jurxsv/
suhihuhqwldo wuhdwphqwv/ dqg vr rq1
Wkh frhflhqw # uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhv
zlwklq wkh jurxs1 Lw udqjhv iurp }hur wr rqh1 Zkhq lw lv htxdo wr }hur/ wkh fkrlfhv
zlwklq wkh vshflf jurxs duh shufhlyhg dv glhuhqw iurp rqh dqrwkhu1 Zkhq lw lv htxdo wr
rqh/ wkh fkrlfhv duh shufhlyhg dv forvh vxevwlwxwhv iru rqh dqrwkhu +vhh Dsshqgl{ E iru d
ghwdlohg ghulydwlrq,1
HY™| ghqhv wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh frxqwhusduwv wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv wudglqj zlwk1
Lq sduwlfxodu/ lw fdswxuhv wkh glhuhqfh lq wkh ghjuhh ri lqirupdwlyhqhvv ehwzhhq wkh pdunhw
pdnhu sodflqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu dqg wkh pdunhw pdnhu zkrp wkh %klw% pdunhw pdnhu
dssurdfkhv1 Wr ghqh wklv/ zh uvw fdofxodwh wkh surgxfw ri wkh ydoxh ri dqg +4 s,/
zkhuh s lv wkh suredelolw| ydoxh ri wkh frhflhqw dv ghqhg lq Htxdwlrq +4;,1 Wkhq
zh fdofxodwh wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh dyhudjh ri wkh h{shfwhg ydoxh ri wkh ghjuhh ri
lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv ri hdfk jurxs/ dqg wkh h{shfwhg lqirupdwlyhqhvv ri
wkh ghdohu zkr lv sodflqj wkh ruljlqdwlqj rughu1
59

35. Wkh prgho +54, lv hvwlpdwhg iru hdfk pdunhw pdnhu vhsdudwho| rq wkh edvlv ri wudqvdf0
wlrq wlph1 Wkhq/ wkh pdunhw pdnhuv duh fodvvlhg lqwr wkuhh jurxsv edvhg rq wkh qdwxuh
ri wkhlu uhvsrqvh wr lqiruphg wudgh +frhflhqw F„ ,1 D furvv0ydolgdwlrq whfkqltxh lv xvhg
wr lghqwli| wkh fodvvhv ri pdunhw pdnhuv/ wr jurxs wkhp dqg wr whvw wkh vwdelolw| ri vxfk d
jurxslqj1 

36. Ixuwkhupruh/ lq rughu wr dvvhvv wkh vwdelolw| ri wkh uhvxowv wr d fkdqjh lq wkh
pdunhw yrodwlolw|/ zh hvwlpdwh Htxdwlrq +54, lq wzr glhuhqw yrodwlolw| uhjlphv +kljk dqg
orz yrodwlolw|,1 %Kljk yrodwlolw|% shulrgv duh wkh gd|v zkhq wkh gdlo| yrodwlolw| h{fhhgv
wkh yrodwlolw| ryhu wkh suhylrxv 43 wudglqj gd|v1 Wkh uhvxowv/ uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho
F/ djuhh zlwk wkh rwkhu rqhv +Wdeoh 8/ sdqhov D dqg E,1
Wkh uhvxowv vwurqjo| vxssruw rxu k|srwkhvhv1 Lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho D/ zh uhsruw wkh uhvxowv
ri wkh vshflfdwlrq edvhg rq wudqvdfwlrq wlph/ hvwlpdwhg e| jurxslqj wkh pdunhw pdnhuv
dffruglqj wr wkh lqvwlwxwlrqdo fodvvlfdwlrq dv zhoo dv wr wkh wudglqj0edvhg rqh1 Wkhuh duh
glhuhqw sdwwhuqv ri ehkdylru dprqj wkh fodvvhv ri pdunhw pdnhuv1 Lq jhqhudo/ vqhdnlhv
wu| wr klgh wkhlu lqirupdwlrq1 Lq rughu wr gr wklv/ wkh| gluhfw wkhlu wudgh wrzdugv pdunhw
pdnhuv ohvv lqiruphg wkdq wkh rqhv zkr kdyh klw wkhp1 Wkhuhiruh/ li wkh| duh klw e|
pdunhw wlphuv/ wkh| sodfh rughuv zlwk ohvv vpduw pdunhw wlphuv/ dyhudjhv dqg frqwuduldqv1
Hpslulfdoo|/ wklv fruuhvsrqgv wr srvlwlyh dqg vwurqjo| vljqlfdqw F„ @ 3=43= Dovr/ li
wkh| duh klw e| frqwuduldqv wkh| sodfh rughuv zlwk ohvv frqwuduldqv/ dyhudjhv dqg pdunhw
wlphuv +hvwlpdwh ri F„ @ 45;=77 lv vwurqjo| vljqlfdqw/ w0vwdwlvwlfv lv 0;1:9,1 Wkdw lv/
wkh| dozd|v %jr iru wkh fhqwuh%/ wrzdugv wkh ohvv lqiruphg +fodvvhv LL/ LLL dqg LY,1
Wkh vnhswlfv ehkdyh lq wkh rssrvlwh idvklrq/ sodflqj rughuv zlwk pdunhw pdnhuv pruh
lqiruphg wkdq wkh rqhv wkh| uhfhlyh rughuv iurp1 Wkdw lv/ li wkh| duh klw e| pdunhw wlphuv/
wkh| dssurdfk vpduwhu pdunhw wlphuv1 Hvwlpdwhv lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho D/ vkrz wkdw lq wkdw
fdvh F„ @ 9=49 zlwk w0vwdwlvwlfv 071951 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ li vnhswlfv duh klw e| frqwuduldqv/
wkh| dssurdfk hyhq %pruh frqwudu|% frqwuduldqv + F„ @ ;:=35,1 Xqolnh wkh vqhdnlhv/ wkh|
dozd|v jr iru wkh _zlqjv%/ wrzdug wkh h{wuhph fodvvhv +L dqg Y,1
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37. W? T@h|U *@hc i tT*| | i t@4T*i ?|L L__ @?_ ii? _@)t A i? i it|4@|i ,^ @|L? E2 ? | i L__
_@)tc i ti | i @* it Lu | i it|4@|i_ ULiUi?|t q F„ |L _i?|u) | i U*@ttit | i 4@h!i| 4@!iht Mi*L?}
|L @?_ | i? }hL T | i 4@h!i| 4@!iht @UULh_?} |L t U @ U*@tt€U@|L? A i?c i ti | i t@4T*i TihL_
M@ti_ L? ii? _@)t |L it|4@|i | i @* i Lu | i @}}hi}@|i_ ULiUi?|t W? A@M*i Dc @?i*t c @?_ i
hiTLh| | i hit *|t it|4@|i_ L? L*i TihL_ *tLc @t @ ti?t||) @?@*)tt i h ? | i t@4i i Tih4i?|
t?} | i ii? _@)t |L _i?|u) | i _i@*iht A i hit *|t @}hii | | i L?it hiTLh|i_
5:

38. Wkh vohhslhv ehkdyh ohvv vwudwhjlfdoo|1 Wkh| dfw rqo| zkhq wkh| duh vxuh derxw wkh
lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wkh wudgh wkh| uhfhlyh/ dqg gr qrw h{shulphqw1 Wkhuhiruh/ wkh|
gr qrw jr hqgrjhqrxv dw doo zkhq wkh| duh klw e| frqwuduldqv ru dyhudjhv/ dowkrxjk wkh|
klgh zkhq klw e| pdunhw wlphuv1
Lq Wdeoh 9 zh uhsruw vrph ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv derxw wkh wkuhh w|shv ri ghdohuv1 Lw
dsshduv wkdw hyhq li vnhswlfv dqg vqhdnlhv uhsuhvhqw d plqrulw| ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv
+uhvshfwlyho| ( dqg 4;( ri doo wkh pdunhw pdnhuv,/ wkh| vwloo duh d vljqlfdqw iudfwlrq ri
wkh ryhudoo lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudglqj +uhvshfwlyho| 67( dqg 57(,1 Dovr/ li zh udqn doo
wkh pdunhw pdnhuv rq wkh edvlv ri wkhlu dyhudjh gdlo| wudglqj yroxph/ irxu rxw ri wkh uvw
yh pdunhw pdnhuv duh dozd|v hlwkhu vqhdnlhv ru vnhswlfv1
Li zh slhufh wkh yhlo dqg dwwhpsw wr frqvlghu wkh frusrudwh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh pdunhw
pdnhuv/ zh qg wkdw wkh vqhdnlhv duh prvwo| iruhljq edqnv dqg vrph kljko| vshfldol}hg
lqyhvwphqw frpsdqlhv1 Wkh idfw wkdw iruhljq edqnv lqwhuphgldwh wkh lqyhvwphqw lq wkh
Lwdoldq pdunhw ri wkh odujh lqwhuqdwlrqdo lqvwlwxwlrqdo lqyhvwruv/ zrxog vxjjhvw wkdw wkh|
kdyh d ehwwhu lqirupdwlrq vhw edvhg rq wkh nqrzohgjh ri wkh rzv1 Wklv zrxog vxjjhvw
kljkhu lqirupdwlrqdo dgydqwdjh dqg vwurqjhu lqfhqwlyh wr klgh1 Wkh vnhswlfv/ lqvwhdg/
duh phglxp0vl}hg kljko| hflhqw edqnv1 Wkh uhodwlyho| vpdoo vl}h zrxog mxvwli| kljk ulvn
dyhuvlrq ru/ lq dq| fdvh/ kljkhu fdxwlrxvqhvv1e
Lw lv lqwhuhvwlqj wr qrwh wkdw zkhq pdunhw pdnhuv duh fodvvlhg dffruglqj wr wkh lqvwl0
wxwlrqdo fodvvlfdwlrq/ erwk vshfldolvwv dqg ruglqdu| pdunhw pdnhuv jhqhudoo| ehkdyh olnh
vqhdnlhv +Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho E,1 Wklv uhhfwv d jhqhudo whqghqf| wr wu| wr klgh lqirupdwlrq1
Wkh dqdo|vlv ri wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhv wkdw frphv rxw ri
wkhvh uhvxowv vkrzv wkdw/ lq jhqhudo/ wkh yh dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhv duh shufhlyhg wr eh txlwh
glhuhqw1 Wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| lv udwkhu kljk/ zlwk # forvh wr wkh plggoh ri wkh
udqjh +durxqg 318,1 Lw lv hyhq kljkhu iru vnhswlfv zkr kdyh wr dssurdfk pruh lqiruphg
wudghuv udwkhu wkdq ohvv lqiruphg rqhv1
H OeG @h!i| @!iht 5|h@|i}it @?_ @h!i| VL*@|*|)
Lq rughu wr whvw zkhwkhu glhuhqw vwudwhjlhv lpso| glhuhqw uhdfwlrqv wr pdunhw yrodwlolw|/
zh whvw wkh uhvwulfwlrqv lpsrvhg e| Htxdwlrq +4:,1 E| xvlqj wkh vshflfdwlrq 54,/ wkh
e N?uLh|
?@|i*) ?L u h| ih ?it|}@|L? ? }hi@|ih _i|@* t @**Li_ M) UL?€_i?|@*) hi^ hi4i?|t
5;

39. whvwdeoh lpsolfdwlrqv duh=
r8e‚|ƒr ? 3 dqg rced8er A 3=
j' j'
Wkdw lv/ wkh fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq pdunhw yrodwlolw| dqg lqiruphg hqgrjhqrxv wudgh lv qhj0
dwlyh iru wkh vnhswlfv dqg srvlwlyh iru wkh vqhdnlhv1
Wkh uhvxowv/ uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqhov D dqg E/ vkrz wkdw wklv lv lqghhg wkh fdvh dqg
wkdw dq lqfuhdvh lq pdunhw yrodwlolw| lqgxfhv wkh vnhswlfv wr uhgxfh wkhlu wudglqj zlwk pruh
lqiruphg pdunhw pdnhuv dqg wkh vqhdnlhv wr lqfuhdvh wkhlu wudglqj zlwk pruh lqiruphg
pdunhw pdnhuv1 Doo frhflhqwv iru vqhdnlhv +vnhswlfv, duh srvlwlyh +qhjdwlyh, zlwk irxu
rxw ri yh vljqlfdqw dw d 8( ohyho1
Dq dowhuqdwlyh vshflfdwlrq lv uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 8/ Sdqho F zkhuh zh vhsdudwh wkh
vdpsoh lq shulrgv ri kljk dqg orz yrodwlolw|1 Wkh whvwdeoh lpsolfdwlrqv ri K7 fdq qrz eh
zulwwhq dv=
m Å}Å m ? m Dt% m iru vnhswlfv dqg m Å}Å m A m Dt% m iru vqhdnlhv/
F„ F„ F„ F„
zkhuh wkh lqgh{hv kljk dqg orz uhihu wr wkh wzr vwdwhv ri kljk dqg orz yrodwlolw|1 Wkh
uhvxowv vkrz wkdw lq jhqhudo wkrvh frqglwlrqv duh vdwlvhg iru uhohydqw jurxsv +L/ LL/ LY dqg
Y,1
b L?U* tL?t
Zh kdyh dqdo|}hg pdunhw pdnhuv* ghflvlrq wr vwudwhjlfdoo| h{shulphqw1 Zh prghoohg vxfk
d ghflvlrq dv wkh uhvxow ri d frpsoh{ vwudwhj| lqyroylqj wkh gluhfw sodfhphqw ri rughuv zlwk
rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv lq wkh vhfrqgdu| pdunhw1
E| xvlqj d xqltxh gdwdvhw wkdw wudfhv pdunhw pdnhuv* ehkdylru rq wkh Lwdoldq Wuhdvxu|
erqg pdunhw/ zh kdyh vkrzq wkdw pdunhw pdnhuv dfwlyho| ohduq iurp wkh pdunhw pdnhuv
wkh| duh wudglqj zlwk1 Wkh| xvh wklv nqrzohgjh wr uhdfw vwudwhjlfdoo| wr wkh lqirupdwlrq
frqwhqw ri wkh rughuv wkh| uhfhlyh/ sod|lqj vwudwhjlhv wkdw ghshqg rq wkh txdolw| ri wklv
lqirupdwlrq1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ zh kdyh lghqwlhg wzr pdlq w|shv ri vwudwhjlf uhdfwlrq wr wkh
lqirupdwlrqdo frqwhqw ri wudgh= _klglqj% dqg _h{shulphqwlqj% dqg vkrzq xqghu zklfk
frqglwlrqv h{shulphqwdwlrq lv wkh suhihuuhg rqh1
5

40. Wkhvh uhvxowv rshq xs d qhz dqg lqwhuhvwlqj dyhqxh ri uhvhdufk1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ li pdunhw
pdnhuv uhdfw glhuhqwo| wr wkh lqirupdwlrq wkh| uhfhlyh/ wkhlu lpsdfw rq pdunhw sulfhv
dovr glhuv1 Iurp wklv shuvshfwlyh/ lw pd| eh srvvleoh wr xvh pdunhw pdnhuv* uhdfwlrqv wr
lqirupdwlrq wr h{sodlq rwkhuzlvh sx}}olqj hylghqfh rq dvvhw sulfhv/ yroxph dqg yrodwlolw|1
Pdunhw hflhqf| dqg sulfh uhdfwlrq wr wudgh fdq eh ehwwhu dqdo|}hg dqg h{sodlqhg lq wkh
frqwh{w ri pdunhw pdnhuv* vwudwhjlf lqwhudfwlrq1
63

41. Pdunhw Pdnhu*v Sureohp
Surri ri Sursrvlwlrq 4
Pdunhw pdnhuv revhuyh d vljqdo +, dqg wu| wr lqihu wkh ydoxh ri 1 Ohw xv dvvxph wkdw
+ , lv d wzr0glphqvlrqdo sduwldoo| revhuydeoh udqgrp surfhvv zkhuh lv wkh revhuydeoh
frpsrqhqw/ lv wkh xqrevhuydeoh frpsrqhqw dqg H lv wkh vhw ri srvvleoh ydoxhv wkdw
wkh xqrevhuydeoh frpsrqhqw +, fdq wdnh1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ dvvxph wkdw wkh xqrevhuydeoh
frpsrqhqw iroorzv=
g | @ D| + | ,gw . E| +,gZ|
zkhuh Z| lv d Zlhqhu surfhvv1 Iurp Olswvhu dqg Vklu|dhy +4::/ sdjh 666, zh nqrz wkdw
wkh srvwhulru suredelolw| ri wkh vwdwh 5 H lv=
] | ] |
DÄ + , DÄ +,
q +w, @ sq +w, . ? q +x,gx . q +x, gZ Ä +55,
f f EÄ +,
S S
zkhuh= ? q +x, @ M, q +x, +x,/ DÄ +, @ M, DÄ + , +x, dqg Z @ +Z | @| ,
U|
lv d Zlhqhu surfhvv zlwk= Z | @ f •IÄ 3ÈIÄEI = Khuh @| lv wkh lqirupdwlrq vhw dydlodeoh
Ä E
dw wlph w= Lq rxu fdvh/ wkh xqrevhuydeoh frpsrqhqw +, fdq wdnh ydoxhv d dqg e +wkdw lv
H @ ^w u `,1 Wkh revhuydeoh frpsrqhqw lv 1 Dsso|lqj Htxdwlrq +55,/ zh kdyh=
g bw @ +4 5 bw ,gw .
bw +4 bw ,+w u , gv
bw w . +4 bw ,u gw
2
I v
Li zh ghqh b @ +4 5 bw ,/ g @ •r bw w . +4 bw ,u gw dqg @
w r
 E3bw Ebw 3bu
+ bw j2 , zh kdyh=
I
g bw @ b gw . g=
w
Hfrqrphwulf Vshflfdwlrq
Lq wklv Dsshqgl{/ zh rxwolqh wkh ghulydwlrq ri d glvfuhwh fkrlfh prgho edvhg rq Ehuu|
+47, dqg Ehuu| hw do1 +48,1 Ohw* v ghqh wkh sd|r ri wkh l0wk fkrlfh iru wkh m0wk
pdunhw pdnhu dv=
x @ { . . % +56,
zkhuh wkh vxevfulsw m iru wkh pdunhw pdnhu lv rplwwhg iru vlpsolflw|1 Htxdwlrq +56,
lpsolhv wkdw wkh sd|r ri hdfk lqglylgxdo pdunhw pdnhu lv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv
ri wkh rwkhu pdunhw pdnhuv kh ghdov zlwk +{ , dqg vrph fkdudfwhulvwlfv revhuydeoh e| wkh
pdunhw pdnhu/ exw qrw shufhlyhg e| wkh hfrqrphwulfldq +,1 D qrlvh whup % lv jlyhq e|
wkh glvwulexwlrq ri pdunhw pdnhuv* suhihuhqfhv +ulvn dyhuvlrq/ hwf1, durxqg d phdq ydoxh
64

42. uhsuhvhqwhg e| = Wkh m0wk pdunhw pdnhu vhohfwv wkh dfwlrq wkdw jxdudqwhhv d sd|r kljkhu
wkdq wkdw ri wkh rwkhu dowhuqdwlyhv/ wkdw lv
x+{ % • , A x+{8 8 % • , iru hdfk n @ 4 === l 4 l . 4 === N
zkhuh • lv wkh vhw ri fkrlfhv1 Wkh suredelolw| ri fkrrvlqj wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh ryhu wkh
rwkhuv fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg e|=
]
v ++{ , { , @ i+% { H ,g%8 +57,
È Ef
zkhuh v lv wkh suredelolw| wkdw wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh lv fkrvhq lq wkh pdunhw dqg lv wkh
phdq sd|r dvvrfldwhg zlwk fkrlfh ri wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh1 Lw lv fdofxodwhg e| lqwhjudwlrq
ryhu wkh duhd DEf / wkdw lv dfurvv doo wkh srvvleoh fkrlfhv1
Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh pdunhw pdnhu kdv uvw wr ghflgh zkhwkhu wr jr h{rjhqrxv ru
hqgrjhqrxv dqg/ lq wkh odwwhu fdvh/ zklfk rwkhu pdunhw pdnhu wr dssurdfk1 Wkh vhw
ri hqgrjhqrxv fkrlfhv lv n @ 4 === l === N 5 hqgr= Zh dovr dvvxph wkdw wkh suhihuhqfhv
ri wkh pdunhw pdnhuv % eh l1l1g1 zlwk _h{wuhph ydoxh% glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq1 Zh fdq
wkhuhiruh uhsuhvhqw wkh suredelolw| ri hdfk fkrlfh dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ri lwv
fkdudfwhulvwlfv + @ { . ,= Wkh suredelolw| ri vhohfwlqj wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh lv=
f
h{s+ , h{s+ 3Æ ,
v +, @ SÇ @ vƒec•t +,vec•t +, zkhuh vƒec•t +, @ S f +58,
8'f h{s+ 8 , Mec•t h{s+ 3Æ ,
uhsuhvhqwv wkh suredelolw| ri fkrrvlqj wkh l0wk dowhuqdwlyh rqfh wkh ghflvlrq ri jrlqj hq0
grjhqrxv kdv ehhq wdnhq/ dqg
S f
+ Mec•t h{s+ 3Æ ,,E3Æ
vec•t +, @ S f +59,
+ Mec•t h{s+ 3Æ ,,E3Æ . h{s+ e7t ,
uhsuhvhqwv wkh suredelolw| ri jrlqj hqgrjhqrxv uhodwlyh wr wkh suredelolw| ri jrlqj h{rjh0
qrxv1 Wkh frhflhqw # uhsuhvhqwv wkh ghjuhh ri khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv dowhuqdwlyh fkrlfhv
zlwklq wkh jurxs1 Lw udqjhv iurp }hur +zkhq wkh fkrlfhv zlwklq wkh vshflf jurxs duh
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lq wkh I[ PdunhwB Wkh Wrn|r H{shulphqw/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfh/ 4;/ 86 +6,/ 4444~
44631
Nhoohu/ Jrgiuh| dqg Vyhq Udg|/ _Rswlpdo H{shulphqwdwlrq lq d Fkdqjlqj Hqylurqphqw/%
Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 4/ 99 +6,/ 7:8~83:1
N|oh/ Doehuw V1/ _Frqwlqxrxv Dxfwlrqv dqg Lqvlghu Wudglqj/% Hfrqrphwulfd/ 4;8/ 86 +9,/
4648~46681
/ _Lqiruphg Vshfxodwlrq zlwk Lpshuihfw Frpshwlwlrq/% Uhylhz ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/
4;/ 89 +6,/ 64:~6881
Ohdfk/ M1 Fkulv dqg Dqdqwk Q1 Pdgkdydq/ _Lqwhuwhpsrudo Sulfh Glvfryhu| e| Pdunhw
Pdnhuv= Dfwlyh yhuvxv Sdvvlyh Ohduqlqj/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Lqwhuphgldwlrq/ 45/
5 +5,/ 53:~5681
dqg / _Sulfh H{shulphqwdwlrq dqg Vhfxulw| Pdunhw Vwuxfwxuh/% Uhylhz ri Il0
qdqfldo Vwxglhv/ 46/ 9 +5,/ 6:8~7371
Olswvhu/ Urehuw dqg Doehuw Vklu|dhy/ Vwdwlvwlfv ri Udqgrp Surfhvvhv L= Jhqhudo Wkhru|/
Qhz run= Vsulqjhu0Yhuodj/ 4::1
O|rqv/ Ulfkdug N1/ _Whvwv ri Plfurvwuxfwxudo K|srwkhvhv lq wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Pdu0
nhw/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 48/ 6 +506,/ 654~6841
/ _D Vlpxowdqhrxv Wudgh Prgho ri wkh Iruhljq H{fkdqjh Krw Srwdwr/% Mrxuqdo ri
Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplfv/ 4:/ 75 +607,/ 5:8~5;1
Pdgkdydq/ Dqdqwk dqg Vh|prxu Vplgw/ _D Ed|hvldq Prgho ri Lqwudgd| Vshfldolvw Sulf0
lqj/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo Hfrqrplfv/ 44/ 63 +4,/ ~4671
/ Pdwwkhz Ulfkdugvrq/ dqg Pdun Urrpdqv/ _Zk| Gr Vhfxulw| Sulfhv FkdqjhB D
Wudqvdfwlrq0Ohyho Dqdo|vlv ri QVH Vwrfnv/% Uhylhz ri Ilqdqfldo Vwxglhv/ 4:/ 43
+7,/ 4368~43971
Prvfdulql/ Jxvhssh dqg O1 Vplwk/ _Zdog Uhylvlwhg= Wkh Rswlpdo Ohyho ri H{shulphqwd0
wlrq2/% 53331
Sdjdq/ Dguldq/ _Hfrqrphwulf Lvvxhv lq wkh Dqdo|vlv ri Uhjuhvvlrqv zlwk Jhqhudwhg Uh0
juhvvruv/% Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Hfrqrplf Uhylhz/ 4;7/ 58 +5,/ 554~5791
Urhoo/ Dlovd/ _Gxdo0Fdsdflw| Wudglqj dqg wkh Txdolw| ri wkh Pdunhw/% Mrxuqdo ri Ilqdqfldo
Lqwhuphgldwlrq/ 43/ 4 +4,/ 438~4571
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