The United Nations projects that world population will rise from just over 7 billion in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion by 2050. This paper examines the nature of the population challenge globally, the effect of population growth on food demand in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the potential benefits -- in terms of food security, economic growth, and environment -- of reducing fertility levels more quickly than currently projected. This paper then explores promising, non-coercive approaches for reducing fertility rates.

1. December 9, 2013
Richard Waite, Associate, Food, Forests and Water Program Photo Source: EU Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection
CREATING A SUSTAINABLE
FOOD FUTURE:
ACHIEVING REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY

2. • The food challenge and menu of solutions
• Population, food security, and environment: Focus
on Africa
• Effective approaches to reducing fertility rates
Agenda

3. HOW CAN THE WORLD FEED MORE THAN
9 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2050 IN A MANNER THAT
ADVANCES DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCES
PRESSURE ON THE ENVIRONMENT?

4. Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards
2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
The world needs to close the food gap

5. Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at:
<http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).
The world needs agriculture to support economic
development

6. The world needs to reduce agriculture’s environmental
impact
Share of global impact (percent in 2010)
Source: WRI analysis based on IEA (2012); EIA (2012); EPA (2012); Houghton
(2008); FAO (2011); FAO (2012); Foley et al. (2005).
70
70
100% = 3862 km3 H2O
24
37
100% = 49 Gt CO2e 100% = 13.3 bn ha
WATER
WITHDRAWAL
GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS
EARTH’S LANDMASS
(EX-ANTARCTICA)

7. A menu of solutions is required to sustainably
close the food gap
Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do
land, water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J.
Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Illustrative

8. Consumption
 Reduce food loss and waste
 Shift to healthier diets
 Achieve replacement level fertility
 Reduce biofuel demand for food crops
Production
 Sustainably increase crop yields
 Boost yields through attentive crop breeding
 Improve soil and water management
 Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands
 Sustainably increase productivity of livestock
 Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands
 Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch
 Increase productivity of aquaculture
Menu for a sustainable food future (Preliminary)

9. Menu for a sustainable food future
Contributes to feeding everyone in 2050 while
satisfying (or not negatively impacting) a number
of criteria:
 Poverty alleviation
 Gender
 Ecosystems
 Climate
 Water
Photo source: Andrew So.

10. The world’s population is projected to grow from about
7 billion people in 2012 to nearly 9.6 billion in 2050, with
half of growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Population (in billions)
Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa” =
Rest of Africa.
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA).
2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total population
by major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.

11. All regions except sub-Saharan Africa are projected to
reach replacement level fertility by 2050
Total fertility rate
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA).
2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations. Total fertility by
major area, region, and country. Medium fertility scenario.
Note: “SSA” = Sub-Saharan Africa, including Sudan. “LAC” = Latin America and Caribbean. “N America” = North America. “N Africa”
= Rest of Africa.

12. 1.5
25% population undernourished
tons/hectare - cereal yields
Source: FAO, WFP and IFAD (2013), WRI analysis based on FAOSTAT (2012), WRI analysis based on
Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012).
Population, food security and environment in sub-
Saharan Africa: a perfect storm?
25% cereals imported

13. High population growth will create a large “food gap” in
sub-Saharan Africa
Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land,
water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012.
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food
availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
660
2,380
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels

14. Achieving replacement level fertility could help close the
global 2050 food gap
Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land,
water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012.
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food
availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
9,500
16,000
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Reduced demand
(worldwide
replacement level
fertility)
10%

15. Achieving replacement level fertility could help close
sub-Saharan Africa’s 2050 food gap
Global annual crop production (kcal trillion)*
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land,
water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012.
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
2006 - food
availability 2050 - baseline food
availability needed
660
2,380
* Includes all crops intended for direct human consumption, animal feed, industrial uses, seeds, and biofuels
Reduced demand
(worldwide
replacement level
fertility)
25%

16. Achieving replacement level fertility can bring
about a “demographic dividend”
Source: WRI analysis based on Bruinsma, J. 2009. The Resource Outlook to 2050: By how much do land,
water and crop yields need to increase by 2050? Rome: FAO; Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012.
World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.
Singapore
Hong Kong
South Korea
Taiwan

17. Achieving replacement level fertility can avoid
additional environmental impacts from agriculture

18. Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Fertility rate, total (births per woman).” Data retrieved
November 30, 2012, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
Total fertility rates can decline rapidly
Total fertility rate

19. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest total fertility rates
Total fertility rate (2005–2010)
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (UNDESA).
2013. World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations.

20. Photo Source: Travis Lupick.
Approach 1: Educate girls

21. Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest total share of women
with at least lower secondary education
Percent of women ages 20–39 with at least lower secondary education
(2005–2010)
Source: Harper, S. 2012. “People and the planet.” University of Oxford. Presentation at The Royal
Society, London, April 2012.

22. Photo Source: UK Department for International Development (DFID).
Approach 2: Reduce child and infant mortality

23. Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest child mortality rates
Mortality of children under age 5 per 1,000 live births (2005–2010)
Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births).” Data retrieved April
2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.

24. Photo Source: Travis Lupick.
Approach 3: Increase access to reproductive health services,
including family planning

25. Source: World Bank. 2012. Databank: “Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49).” Data
retrieved April 2, 2013, from World Development Indicators Online (WDI) database.
Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest share of women
using contraception
Percent of women ages 15–49 using contraception (2005–2010)

26. wri.org/wrr