Will Momentum for Climate Action Continue
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On January 13th, WRI President and CEO Dr. Andrew Steer presented the big stories that will shape the world in 2016. How do we turn the Paris Agreement from promise to action?What are the major trends in energy, finance, business, food and cities? Which countries will be in the spotlight?
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Will Momentum for Climate Action Continue
- 2. Photo: Greenpeace FEATURING Andrew Steer President & CEO January 13, 2016
- 3. WORST REFUGEE CRISIS SINCE WWII 60 million people displaced globally Photo: CAPHOD Photo Library/Flickr
- 4. TERRORISM SPIKES AROUND THE WORLD Photo: The Apex Archive
- 5. SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH: A NEW NORMAL? Photo: Wendell/Flickr
- 6. BUT, SIGNS OF HOPE Photo: United Nations
- 7. FROM COMMITMENTS… Photo: COP Paris/Flickr
- 10. THE PARIS AGREEMENT: Will Momentum Continue? STORY 1 Photo: Greenpeace
- 11. A TURNING POINT ON CLIMATE Photo: COP Paris
- 12. WHAT’S IN THE AGREEMENT?
- 13. MORE AMBITION NEEDED Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc- studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
- 14. MORE AMBITION NEEDED Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc- studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
- 15. MORE AMBITION NEEDED Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc- studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
- 16. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Countries Seize Momentum? Photo: Elentari86/Flickr
- 17. WHAT TO WATCH: How Many Countries Sign On? Photo: Susan Melkisethian/Flickr April 22: Earth Day
- 18. WHAT TO WATCH: Progress on National Commitments? Source: CAIT Paris Contributions Map/WRI 135 Countries Set GHG Targets
- 19. WHAT TO WATCH: India as a Bellwether? Photo: Narendra Modi/Flickr Goal: 3GW to 100GW Solar Power by 2022
- 20. Will Momentum Continue? STORY 1 Photo: Greenpeace
- 21. NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY: Will the Message Take Root? STORY 2 Photo: Greenpeace
- 22. THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
- 23. THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY • Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
- 24. THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY • Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs • Economic growth can be consistent with climate action Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
- 25. THE INTELLECTUAL JOURNEY • Economic growth and climate action are tradeoffs • Economic growth can be consistent with climate action • Economic growth is only possible with climate action Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
- 26. BUSINESSES: GROWING COMMITMENTS • 1,000+ companies commit to carbon pricing • 150+ U.S. companies pledge support for climate action • 116 companies commit to Science-Based Targets Source: http://sciencebasedtargets.org/; Carbon Pricing; The White House Photo: iStock
- 27. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Businesses Follow Through? Photo: COP Paris/Flickr
- 28. WHAT TO WATCH: More Science-Based Targets?
- 29. WHAT TO WATCH: Alignment on Lobbying Image: Flickr/Daniel Guy
- 30. ACTION IN CITIES, TOO 425+Cities join the Compact of Mayors Source: Compact of Mayors
- 31. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Cities Deliver? Photo:WRI
- 32. WHAT TO WATCH: Will New Urban Narrative Take Hold? Photo: Scipio/Flickr October: Habitat III Conference Quito, Ecuador
- 33. Will the Message Take Root? STORY 2 Image: Greenpeace
- 34. GREEN FINANCE: Will the Financial System Evolve? STORY 3 Photo:Travel Aficionado/Flickr
- 35. RAISING BILLIONS, SHIFTING TRILLIONS Photo: Scott Beale/Flickr
- 36. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
- 37. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
- 38. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
- 39. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
- 40. GREENING FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?
- 41. WHY NOT ENOUGH FUNDING FOR GREEN PROJECTS?
- 42. WHY NOT ENOUGH FUNDING FOR GREEN PROJECTS?
- 43. SIGNS OF CHANGE: INCREASING AWARENESS Source: Bank of England; Photo: World Economic Forum/Flickr “Shifts in our climate bring potentially profound implications for insurers, financial stability and the economy.” – Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
- 44. SIGNS OF CHANGE: ACTION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES Photo: bfishadow/Flickr
- 45. WHAT TO WATCH: Will China’s G20 Deliver? Photo: European Council President/Flickr
- 46. WHAT TO WATCH: Will G20 Embrace Systemic Reform? Photo: Alex Proimos/Flickr • Disclosure guidelines • Environmental stress tests • Lenders liability • Green bond regulations • Etc.
- 47. WHAT TO WATCH: What Will the New Taskforce Say? Image: Angela Radulescu/Flickr Recommendations in December
- 48. WHAT TO WATCH: Green Climate Fund: Will Money Flow? Photo: The Green Climate Fund Goal: $2.5 billion in 2016
- 49. WHAT TO WATCH: Which Way on Multilateral Investment? Photo: Yardley/Flickr Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) New Development Bank Silk Road Fund
- 50. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Institutional Investors Adjust? Image: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr • $600 billion committed to decarbonization • $1 trillion target in 2016?
- 51. Will the Financial System Evolve? STORY 3 Image:Travel Aficionado/Flickr
- 52. FOOD LOSS & WASTE: A Growing Movement? STORY 4 Image: superk8nyc/Flickr
- 53. A GLOBAL CHALLENGE • 2.3 billion more people by 2050 • 70% greater food demand in 2050 Source: UN 2015; World Resources Report 2015; FAO 2015. Photo: Ed Yourdon/Flickr
- 54. WHAT A WASTE… 32% of all food is wasted from farm to fork Photo: Shutterstock
- 55. FINANCIAL DRAIN Loss of $940 billion per year Source: FAO 2015; Photo: Alexander Edward/Flickr
- 56. HURTS FOOD SECURITY 1 in 9 people don’t get enough food today Source: World Bank; Photo: GAC | AMC/Flickr
- 57. INCREASES PRESSURE ON RESOURCES Food loss & waste uses cropland greater than the size of China Source: Kummu, M. et al, 2012; FAO, 2013; Photo: John Roberts/Flickr
- 58. MAJOR DRIVER OF EMISSIONS Source: CAIT, 2015, FAO 2015 Food wastage footprint & climate change. Rome: FAO
- 59. A NEW GLOBAL GOAL Halve Global Food Waste by 2030 Source: United Nations; Image: United Nations
- 60. WHAT TO WATCH: A Common Global Standard? Photo: Flickr/Lyza
- 61. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Businesses Make Progress? Consumer Goods Forum: 400 members Goal to cut food waste in half by 2025
- 62. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Companies Lead? Photo: raver_mikey/Flickr • Transparency • Whole value chain approach • Food surplus donation
- 63. WHAT TO WATCH: Will More Countries Set Targets? Source: USDA; Image: US Department of Agriculture/Flickr US GOAL 50% reduction in food waste by 2030
- 64. WHAT TO WATCH: Will Political Momentum Grow? Image: World Economic Forum/Flickr Launch of Champions 12.3 in Davos
- 65. A Growing Movement? STORY 4 Photo: superk8nyc/Flickr
- 66. CHINA: Will a New Vision Take Hold? STORY 5 Image: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr
- 67. A GOOD RIDE 10X increase in GDP since 1990 Note: GDP (Constant 2005 US$); Source: World Bank Development Indicators; Photo: IOC Young Reporters/Flickr
- 68. A VOLATILE MOMENT Source: Shanghai Composite Index data via Quandl Shanghai Composite Index (June 2015 – Jan 2016)
- 69. CURRENT MODEL CANNOT CONTINUE ‘Red Alerts’ for air pollution close schools and business Photo: V.T. Polywoda/Flickr
- 70. A TEST FOR CHINA’S LEADERS "China's development should not just be focused on growth pace, but, more importantly, on growth quality” – President Xi Source: http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/11/03/191s902485.htm ; Image: UN Photo/Loey Felipe/Flickr
- 71. 13TH FIVE YEAR PLAN March 2016: National People’s Congress to Approve Plan Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr
- 72. CHINA’S BROAD TARGETS ALREADY ANNOUNCED • Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 (or earlier) • Double non-fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2030 • Reduce carbon intensity 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030 Source: UNFCC; Photo: Peter F/Flickr
- 73. What targets for wind & solar pre-2020? Photo: The Climate Group/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: Progress on Clean Energy?
- 74. • More caps on coal? • Limits on coal finance? Photo: Rose Robinson/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: When Will Coal Peak?
- 75. Progress toward national trading? Photo: ansoncfit/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: Carbon Trading System?
- 76. • 3x building stock by 2030 • How many more low- carbon pilot cities? Photo: depps/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: A New Urbanization?
- 77. • Will China reduce excess capacity in steel & heavy industries? • How fast will the service industry grow? Photo: gregoire_m/Flickr WHAT TO WATCH: Rebalancing the Economy?
- 78. Will a New Vision Take Hold? STORY 5: Photo: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr
- 79. US CLIMATE LEADERSHIP: Will it Continue? STORY 6 Photo: ABC News/Flickr
- 80. 2015: TAX CREDITS FOR RENEWABLES Photo: Mark Fischer/Flickr
- 81. 2015: KEYSTONE XL PIPELINE REJECTED Photo: Bonnie Chan/Rainforest Action Network
- 82. 2015: CLEAN POWER PLAN FINALIZED • 17% by 2020 • 26-28% by 2025 (below 2005 levels) Photo: Alex Ferguson/Flickr US Climate Goals
- 83. HOW ARE STATES RESPONDING? 27 States Suing Source: (E&E Publishing, LLC) http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan
- 84. HOW ARE STATES RESPONDING? But 38 States Drafting Plans (so far) Source: (E&E Publishing, LLC) http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan
- 85. WHAT TO WATCH: How Will Courts Rule? (February/March) Photo: Wikimedia Commons
- 86. WHAT TO WATCH: What Will States’ Plans Look Like? (September) Photo: Energy.gov/Flickr
- 87. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: Duke Energy/Flickr 50+ Companies Signed on to Renewable Energy Buyers Principles How Will Utilities Respond?
- 88. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: The White House/Flickr • HFCs Standards • Fuel Efficiency Standards • Methane in Landfills & Infrastructure More Executive Action?
- 89. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: ABC News/Flickr How Will Climate Play in the Campaigns?
- 90. WHAT TO WATCH: Photo: AP How Will Climate Play in the Campaigns?
- 91. IN NOVEMBER… Photo: Getty Images
- 92. Will it Continue? STORY 6 Photo: ABC News/Flickr
- 93. Photo: Greenpeace THE PARIS AGREEMENT: Will Momentum Continue? NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY: Will the Message Take Root? GREEN FINANCE: Will the Financial System Evolve? FOOD LOSS & WASTE: A Growing Movement? CHINA: Will a New Vision Take Hold? US CLIMATE LEADERSHIP: Will it Continue?
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Photo: Greenpeace
- Most number of refugees and displaced persons (59.5 million) globally since WWII at the end of 2014. 2015 expected to break records for global displacement. Source: UNHCR: http://www.unhcr.org/558193896.html and http://www.unhcr.org/5672c2576.html Image: Flickr/CAFOD Photo Library https://www.flickr.com/photos/cafodphotolibrary/22094354393/in/photolist-zEpkNH-zEgaSh-zdTwDg-B13ep6-qht2Fi-yJgW7k-AHoaiY-yEMemb-zgcnwk-zgdjJp-zwCm6C-zvq1hy-zPFbAr-zwfHVa-y7VbKD-B13ezg-y7Q6xJ-A5rn6y-zgmKzj-yFcrSq-yq77jx-y7SSca-yNcCHW-z3na49-yKvYF1-y8TP5L-yAFmJG-yAFnr3-zdMdUG-y91SWt-z4GooC-ypr8QR-ypr91k-ypoPaP-yq77Br-yN3cBb-zPcb5n-zdMdA5-zxXyHa-y7VbVi-qhL8ar-y7P2X1-q1og6A-y8TMKw-z6wPJz-z4SK2w-z5E9CT-y93Q3P-AJJPSB-z5VrAa
- Recent terrorism spikes: Charlie Hebdo (Jan 2015), Paris Attacks (Nov. 2015), San Bernardino (Dec. 2015), and ongoing attacks by Islamic State and Boko Haram. Image: Flickr/The Apex Archive https://www.flickr.com/photos/the_apex_archive/16055165797/in/photolist-qsJVrp-qsB2LN-pNasB3-qu7wuK-AzjEz3-Bnh3XN-BU5cNQ-qKcxZW-AqNZKt-42HTBF-76Pa7n-7zP8H7-4zn8WY-4WRUfG-BaJdrB-aBYqV-7zKojZ-7zKo7p-7zKmHF-8LtpuQ-6i555F-qGSLKW-AvLjbJ-Ay5inc-B8wXT3-B7ri5b-B7rqvJ-B7rgJW-BaJ1gK-6hbDhx-B69AGa-Ard7SD-B69JjK-Atw2uZ-B2U1CE-A89PVJ-B41gBL-B69uJt-B2StYW-B3XQ5C-A87YP9-B69VxM-B6bfFV-A8hD2H-B3ZnVu-A8i91e-B5b8qx-A87Qpd-B69QBe-eGDwMa
- 3.3% GDP growth in 2015 (projected) Anemic growth in emerging markets Source: IMF, April 2015 WEO, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/index.aspx Note: 2015 and 2016 Projections reflect the July 9, 2015 World Economic Outlook Update: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/update/02/pdf/0715.pdf Flickr/Wendell https://www.flickr.com/photos/intherough/15625436951/in/photolist-pNLs2n-7eKY6d-6KPSLG-bLzdCp-bLzdWi-hknMZ6-hknN6P-hkpg4n-87kYfw-87hLXD-7LRqdJ-dPQtY7-qcDYwk-buR2U8-zZ16Ac-zYZWhx-62fRXz-jmyqtK-jmZdDU-dPQuf7-9chSab-9i8FM5-5kQKTc-fKokWq-87hM9K-aEMqQS-9Groe-aEMqKQ-AfjTLL-AgvsNz-4u8Eqe-5mpryS-5mpt5J-9t1YhT-zYVxw9-zZ14tX-5mk49x-5mpEpY-5mka6t-9kFZh4-9dxYGX-9gYj9s-9jY7vU-jkdtmV-9qu5uN-5kQQek-bwBkZe-bwAF8k-bwBpS4-bwBhPT
- Pope Francis visited America, delivered message of hope, at UN Passage of Sustainable Development Goals in September 2015 Combined with Paris Agreement, faith in multilateral action was restored. Image: Photo: United Nations https://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/21085660103/in/album-72157659091381965/
- 2015: Year of multilateral commitments -the Paris Accord and the Sustainable Development Goals setting a new agenda for climate and sustainable development Image: Photo: COP Paris/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/cop21/23078912453/in/album-72157661744003510/
- 2016: Countries - and other actors - businesses, cities, etc - need to move to implementation. It’s not enough to make big announcement, they need to follow-through. Image:Photo: Flickr/.freeside. https://www.flickr.com/photos/freeside/16834535246/
- Themes in this year’s stories all focus on moving from commitment to action to demonstrate progress on key issues to ensure the promise of 2015 is fulfilled.
- 187 countries have committed to climate action plans that provided momentum and buy in for the Paris Agreement. Together, these countries represent 99% of global emissions. For the first time in the history, the Paris Agreement establishes an ongoing, regular process to increase action by all countries. Image: Photo: COP Paris
- 187 countries announced climate plans (INDCs) Countries agreed on a long-term goal to head to net zero carbon this century They agreed to come back every 5 years to strengthen climate actions Common reporting for enhanced transparency and ac Adaptation for vulnerable countries And financial support was pledged especially for the least developed countries
- But, more ambition is needed if we are to move towards the Paris goal. What happens in the next few years will determine if we can stay within a climate-safe world. Red: Without the Paris agreement, we were projected to have dangerous global warming up to the red range (4-5 degrees Celsius) With the agreement, country climate action plans bring us closer to a 2 degree world - about the orange (2.7-3.7 degrees C) - but we still fall short of what we need. In green, you have the Paris Agreement goal of a 1.5-2 degrees limit to global warming. Note: Estimated increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels (in degrees Celsius) by 2100 Technical Note: Estimates show that the national climate commitments made through 2030 would keep global temperatures to 2.7 degrees C warming. The process of review and revision every five years provides the means go further and achieve the goal of keeping temperature rise below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) or lower. In other words, the review cycle can help us to get below 2C, but only if all countries are willing to take very big additional steps. (Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen) Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
- But, more ambition is needed if we are to move towards the Paris goal. What happens in the next few years will determine if we can stay within a climate-safe world. Red: Without the Paris agreement, we were projected to have dangerous global warming up to the red range (4-5 degrees Celsius) With the agreement, country climate action plans bring us closer to a 2 degree world - about the orange (2.7-3.7 degrees C) - but we still fall short of what we need. In green, you have the Paris Agreement goal of a 1.5-2 degrees limit to global warming. Note: Estimated increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels (in degrees Celsius) by 2100 Technical Note: Estimates show that the national climate commitments made through 2030 would keep global temperatures to 2.7 degrees C warming. The process of review and revision every five years provides the means go further and achieve the goal of keeping temperature rise below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) or lower. In other words, the review cycle can help us to get below 2C, but only if all countries are willing to take very big additional steps. (Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen) Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
- But, more ambition is needed if we are to move towards the Paris goal. What happens in the next few years will determine if we can stay within a climate-safe world. Red: Without the Paris agreement, we were projected to have dangerous global warming up to the red range (4-5 degrees Celsius) With the agreement, country climate action plans bring us closer to a 2 degree world - about the orange (2.7-3.7 degrees C) - but we still fall short of what we need. In green, you have the Paris Agreement goal of a 1.5-2 degrees limit to global warming. Note: Estimated increase in global average temperature above pre-industrial levels (in degrees Celsius) by 2100 Technical Note: Estimates show that the national climate commitments made through 2030 would keep global temperatures to 2.7 degrees C warming. The process of review and revision every five years provides the means go further and achieve the goal of keeping temperature rise below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) or lower. In other words, the review cycle can help us to get below 2C, but only if all countries are willing to take very big additional steps. (Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen) Source: WRI analysis by Kelly Levin and Taryn Fransen http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/11/insider-why-are-indc-studies-reaching-different-temperature-estimates
- Photo: Elentari86/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/22741281@N05/16191433406/
- How many countries will actually sign up and ratify? Earth Day (April 22) 2016 in NYC is when the Paris Accord will be ready for signing. Photo: Susan Melkisethian/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/susanmelkisethian/9380890286/in/photolist-fhXvRG-fhHqR6-fhXwgh-fhHoiz-fhXE9Y-fhXvKh-fhHnot-fhHqEx-fhHpra-fhXEsf-fhXwzf-fhHeGt-fhXFnG-fhHnUH-fhHqLD-fhHp6v-fhXEVL-fhHnFk-fhHeMt-fhXvzN-fhHoUn-fhHoDi-fhHotc-fhHn6n-fhXwr5-fhHeB4-fhHoLc-fhHnd2-AJpyqV-edJmDw-edJBKU-edJeuY-edJEbQ-edCCTt-edJgnd-edCVNz-edJtT3-pnazvS-8YkL3f-8YhJq2-8YkLa1-nntThf-8YhJxZ-8YkMjY-xhP6V-pka8nq-8YkLQ9-8YkLFG-8YhJFH-34yikz
- 135 countries with GHG targets (includes both carbon intensity in green and GHG reduction targets in blue) Other countries, mostly poor and developing countries have announced actions that they will do, but have not set specific targets for emissions reductions. What kind of progress will countries make on their national commitments? Source: CAIT Paris Contributions Map/WRI
- Prime Minister Modi of India committed to 100GW –more than a thirty fold increase in the next 7 years This year we will see if they are heading in the right direction By the end of 2016 we will have a good indication if this will attract the investments that are needed for this kind of transformational change Photo: Narendra Modi/Flickr
- Image: Greenpeace
- Image: Greenpeace
- Here you have Felipe Calderon, former President of Mexico and Chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. From his tenure as Energy Minister, then President of Mexico and Chair of the G20 (focused on Green Growth), and now as the Chair for New Climate Economy, he has described his intellectual journey as follows: Climate action + economic growth are tradeoffs Economic growth can be consistent with climate action Economic growth is only possible with climate action However, many folks are still stuck in either of the first two steps of this intellectual journey, thinking that climate action and economic growth are false trade offs, when in fact they go hand in hand. Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
- Here you have Felipe Calderon, former President of Mexico and Chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. From his tenure as Energy Minister, then President of Mexico and Chair of the G20 (focused on Green Growth), and now as the Chair for New Climate Economy, he has described his intellectual journey as follows: Climate action + economic growth are tradeoffs Economic growth can be consistent with climate action Economic growth is only possible with climate action However, many folks are still stuck in either of the first two steps of this intellectual journey, thinking that climate action and economic growth are false trade offs, when in fact they go hand in hand. Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
- Here you have Felipe Calderon, former President of Mexico and Chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. From his tenure as Energy Minister, then President of Mexico and Chair of the G20 (focused on Green Growth), and now as the Chair for New Climate Economy, he has described his intellectual journey as follows: Climate action + economic growth are tradeoffs Economic growth can be consistent with climate action Economic growth is only possible with climate action However, many folks are still stuck in either of the first two steps of this intellectual journey, thinking that climate action and economic growth are false trade offs, when in fact they go hand in hand. Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
- Here you have Felipe Calderon, former President of Mexico and Chair of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. From his tenure as Energy Minister, then President of Mexico and Chair of the G20 (focused on Green Growth), and now as the Chair for New Climate Economy, he has described his intellectual journey as follows: Climate action + economic growth are tradeoffs Economic growth can be consistent with climate action Economic growth is only possible with climate action However, many folks are still stuck in either of the first two steps of this intellectual journey, thinking that climate action and economic growth are false trade offs, when in fact they go hand in hand. Photo: C40 Cities/Flickr
- Over the last year, companies have made important commitments, and many CEOs were present in Paris to support the negotiations. Just some of these commitments include: 1,000+ companies commit to carbon pricing through World Bank’s Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition 150+ U.S. firms signed the American Business Act on Climate Pledge voicing their support for a strong Paris outcome and their own commitment to climate action 116 companies commit to Science Based Targets, which are emissions reduction targets aligned with what scientists say is necessary to keep global warming below the dangerous threshold of 2 degrees Celsius. The Science-Based Targets Initiative is something that WRI, along with UN Global Compact, WWF and CDP have put together to get companies to go from doing better to doing enough. Sources: http://sciencebasedtargets.org/ ; Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition; http://www.carbonpricingleadership.org/leadership-coalition: The White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/12/01/white-house-announces-additional-commitments-american-business-act Photo:IStock
- The question is - will businesses follow through with their commitments this year? Photo: COP Paris/Flickr
- For example, will we have more companies signing on to Science Based Targets? 116 companies have now committed to set emissions reduction targets, in line with what scientists say is necessary to keep global warming below the dangerous threshold of 2 degrees Celsius. 10 companies have already had their targets improved: Coca-Cola Enterprises, Dell, Enel, General Mills, Kellogg, NRG Energy, Procter & Gamble, Sony, and Thalys How will the companies perform against their targets? Source: http://sciencebasedtargets.org/ Image: Wikimedia Commons
- Will we start seeing businesses starting to lobby for a green future rather than against it? Will they put their money where their mouths are? Companies are facing increased scrutiny and pressure to align their public stance with their internal lobbying position. What to Watch: Will companies push their trade associations to shift their positions? Examples: NAM, US Chamber of Commerce, European Trade Assoc. Image: Flickr/Daniel Guy
- Cities were a major player in Paris. They are shifting to become leaders in sustainability - their targets are outpacing national commitments. 425 cities signed up to the Compact of Mayors commitment. WRI research found that Compact of Mayors signatories can collectively reduce their emissions by nearly 17% below 2010 levels by 2030. WRI found that the Compact of Mayors cities can avoid emitting 740 million tons of GHG emissions annually, more than the country of Mexico emits every year. (Note based on 360 cities.)
- Will more cities sign up to Compact of Mayors? Will they make progress on their emissions goals? Photo: WRI
- Will the new narrative take hold? This is a picture of Quito, Ecuador, In October, Quito will host the Habitat III Conference where thousands of experts and policymakers come to talk about cities -- once every 10 years. What to watch: Will sustainable cities be a dominant theme in Habitat III? Will the Paris Agreement and SDGs drive a narrative change in other international fora, such as Habitat III conference, the UN Conference in Quito, Ecuador October 2016. Will cities affirm a new urban agenda that focuses on sustainability and people? Will “compact, coordinated, connected” theme of NCE dominate the discussion? Source: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate Worldwide, this kind of city-design would save $3 trillion in investment over the next 15 years. What progress do we see at the “Climate Action 2016” Summit in May in DC, co-sponsored by World Bank, GEF, Compact of Mayors, WBCSD, WMB, and UMD. What progress will be seen by then and what new commitments will be announced? Finance: How do cities mobilize capital to finance low-carbon infrastructure and make emissions reductions? From national governments? The private sector? Image: Scipio/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/scatteredashes/2364565237/in/album-72157600594300896/
- Image: Greenpeace
- To keep our promise on Paris will require a lot of money. Our next story: will the financial system deliver the amount of resources that are required to move to a new path? Image:Travel Aficionado/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/travel_aficionado/2396814840/in/photostream/
- We do need billions in special money in banks and funds like the GCF and elsewhere, but more important we need to shift the trillions in the financial system New Climate Economy calculates that $90 trillion dollars will be invested just in energy, cities, and landscapes alone in the next 15 years. Source: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate Photo: Scott Beale/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/14499643915/
- So what would it take to green the financial system?
- First, we should take a look at what makes up the financial system? Households and corporations accrue savings and they choose to put them in banks, bonds, equities, and insurance.
- Combined, these different elements are the financial system.
- At the moment, the financial system invests capital in development and investments. At the moment, many of these investments are “brown.”
- Why aren’t banks putting their money into green markets?
- First, on the demand side: up until now there haven’t been enough bankable green projects, but that is changing and there will continue to be more projects to finance in a post-Paris world. However, post-Paris, in 2016, there will be more demand for this type of finance.
- But why are banks not be putting $ into green markets where they exist? On the supply side, three qualities of the financial system are preventing green finance investments (UPDATED!) Inability to assess environmental risk Short-term focus conservative lending culture Financial institutions tend to put money into what they have before and the RE and clean energy are relatively new. But what would it take to shift all of this to a greener form? New Climate Economy calculates that $90 trillion dollars will be invested in energy, cities, and landscapes alone in the next 15 years. Source: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate
- Importantly, we’ve seen an increasing awareness of the systemic problems in the financial system and a shift in dialogue on green finance. Bankers and regulators are starting to pay attention to these issues. The landmark UNEP report on greening the financial system, published last year concluded that a “quiet revolution” is already underway in the financial system, but more is needed Source: “The Financial System We Need” UNEP 2015 http://web.unep.org/inquiry/publications Awareness is increasing -- for example, Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, has said that climate change was the issue for the financial sector. “The challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared with what might come.” -- Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England Source: Bank of England http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2015/speech844.pdf Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldeconomicforum/8415998009/in/photolist-dPGbZX-bjJuMR-eyPaBo-qV7d6H-jueM1i-jug8XK-dPGqfr-dPGq6K-eyKMbi-qCQxKg-qCP4jn-qCQw4v-juib97-jueLtr-jug7ZT-dPGPni-dPGPta-z3JJnC-jtdhBm-9VhRq9-qCNAot-AuMcWd-AuMrjV-eyKLtt-eyP7oA-eyP7RN-eyP6A5-eyL2U6-aYiBb2-eyL3hH-eyPbsJ-eyKQpn-eyPbMA-eyKXbM-eyKXyP-eyKVzF-eyP1DC-eyKNCi-eyP7uC-eyKPYR-eyKWcc-eyKXNB-eyP7i1-eyL1hB-eyP6k3-eyL1rt-eyKMQp-eyP6XC-eyKQNV-eyKLHP
- Many bankers, regulators, and countries are starting to think seriously about these kinds of tools and reforms. France has just passed new regulations requiring companies to disclose environmental risk. The People’s Bank of China (pictured here) in particular is an institution that is taking on green finance. In 2016, they will be introducing mandatory disclosure in 2016, has green bond regulations... The good news is that China is hosting the G20 this year and putting green finance at the top of the agenda. Source: http://www.g20.org/English/ Photo: bfishadow/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/bfishadow/16556327031/in/photolist-4vMh8G-atwFw8-dXhVZo-7fyJXF-re2vdk
- This year, China will host the G20 summit in September and has made green finance the theme of the summit. "Building an innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive world economy" Significantly, this year, the G20 is putting green finance on the agenda. G20 was initially convened for the purposes of maintaining global financial stability. Reforms and policy changes made by the G20 have huge implications throughout the global economy; G20 members represent: G20 will officially launch its Work Stream on Green Finance January 25th in Beijing. The G20 Study Group on green finance (led by the Bank of England and the People’s Bank of China) will have five areas: banking, bonds, institutional investors, information disclosure & stress testing, and the role of government. Source: http://www.g20.org/English/ Things to watch: Will this new focus on green finance translate to real action? Will we see a recognition of the importance of a systemic approach to green finance in the G20 communique? Will we see concrete commitments from members? Will the G20 build accountability mechanisms into any commitments? Photo: European Council President/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/europeancouncilpresident/22641857237/in/photolist-AuMrjV-aYiBb2-jueM1i-jug8XK-dPGqfr-dPGq6K-eyKMbi-qCQxKg-qCP4jn-qCQw4v-juib97-jueLtr-jug7ZT-dPGPni-dPGPta-jtdhBm-eyKLtt-eyP7oA-eyP7RN-eyP6A5-eyL2U6-eyL1PK-eyPbBJ-eyKVGB-eyP7M9-eyL3hH-eyPbsJ-eyKQpn-eyPbMA-eyKXbM-eyKXyP-eyKVzF-eyP1DC-eyKNCi-eyP7uC-eyKPYR-eyKWcc-eyKXNB-eyP7i1-eyL1hB-eyP6k3-eyL1rt-eyKMQp-eyP6XC-eyKQNV-eyKLHP-eyKW7a-eyNZbo-eyL2Jx-eyNZQG
- A systemic shift is needed to these problems. So what kinds of policies and reforms could the G20 recommend? Disclosure guidelines Environmental stress tests Lenders liability Green bond regulations And more. Photo: Alex Proimos/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/proimos/5899300483/in/photolist-9Zisvi-66gp31-6JiaFU-k82g18-4Hgjqa-rZnjs-9ZmvKq-4Gq7mC-KpHhx-7oizgu-rXTcT-4Di3T7/
- At COP21, chair of the G20’s Financial Stability Board Mark Carney announced the formation of a global industry-led taskforce, established to examine the financial exposure of companies to the risks of climate change. The selection of Mike Bloomberg, an expert of the financial industry, as the chairman is seen as a signal of the seriousness of this taskforce. Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/04/mark-carney-unveils-global-taskforce-to-educate-business-on-climate-change They will issue their recommendations by December of this year. What will the recommendations be? Which companies will adopt these guidelines? Image: Angela Radulescu/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/walkingthedeepfield/3045650319/in/photolist-5D8KJp-8TZLWW-8XzEqi-5subqm-rm12Zp-shKVrR-shKUUt-sfvAHo-s1dnY5-sfvzpm-rkNo9Y-s1epQb-shKQ72-shKPCr-rYsBGa-rkNkds-shJT1v-s1dqZh-rYsA9R-s1dpUw-shCChW-shJQRv-shMJ6z-rkMmDq-shMHpe-s1kdH8-shCzMW-rkMjXE-rYsvNB-s1kaXi-s1djDm-shMDoD-s1ce6s-s1dhKm-shCuNC-sfur6u-s1dguq-rYsqVv-s1caMJ-s1cagU-shJF44-sfuo2y-s1c8P5-rYsnG6-shJCZe-rkYHwz-rkM995-shMupX-s1jZxR-shCmNu
- Goal $2.5 billion to disburse in 2016 To meet that goal, it will need to significantly ramp up its efforts. Will we see transformative projects funded by the GCF? Image: The Green Climate Fund
- Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) New Development Bank Silk Road Fund Several new mega-banks and funds are fundamentally changing the multilateral financial system, and they will be coming online or ramping up their activities in 2016. For example, AIIB, the New Development Bank (Formerly BRICs Bank) and the Silk Road Fund have hundreds of billions of dollars in authorized capital. Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) -$100 billion capital base New Development Bank (BRICS Bank)- $100 billion capital base China’s Silk Road Fund - $40 billion capital base Next week, the AIIB becomes operational, and it will issue its first loans by middle of the year. In its initial years, the AIIB expects to have $10-15 billion in annual lending. All of these institutions will be thinking through their policies on sustainability. What will they decide? What kinds of projects will they fund? Which direction will these investments go? Photo: Yardley/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/yarders/300200340/
- How are institutional investors shifting towards greener finance? The real shifts are needed where the real capital is - in the private sector. These are the trillions. The Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition (PDC) is a multi-stakeholder initiative that will drive GHG emissions reductions by mobilizing a critical mass of institutional investors committed to gradually decarbonizing their portfolios (beyond just divestment). So far, $600 billion assets under management in one year from some of the largest institutions who have indicated that they intend to decarbonize in some way. This was $100billion larger than their $500 billion target set for Paris. Source: http://unepfi.org/pdc/ What concrete steps will these investors take to decarbonize their portfolios? What will investors’ “decarbonization” look like? Will their efforts trigger greater shifts in capital flows beyond PDC members as the market reacts? Will they set a $1 trillion target in 2016?(currently something that is in discussion) Image: World Bank Photo Collection/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/5320573109/in/photolist-97ak28-8La67Z-8LcZwE-97ajnn-97dq15-97ajLK
- Image: Travel Aficionado/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/travel_aficionado/2396814840/in/photostream/
- Photo: superk8nyc/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/superk8/2801590280/in/photolist-5gyTbG-89vatM-5kYhFP-zcaAug-bMwwfM-6qg25k-aqEr4A-2mJ1UC-643xzv-rKqv22-2U1K44-647LbJ-vFXmn-ay6xEq-axA8iQ-dqDjar-ax1avw-ayGS66-axLPEx-ax1aaY-axLPoc-5rxpg8-643x6D-ay6xed-6CQecW-7TBCSs-6JXSSo-6pRY8T-jH5oUW-dwUud3-dC5Sa5-wSHrc-qyNhsE-34z2mq-7ruyrh-qB1ATY-dLdHMk-frxztv-9nV52w-6Dw3Z-9gdu9i-waHYeL-5q1Rc5-7gJZUm-4RsTk4-i6TEGN-9X5Eoc-6UfFa5-9PhaXV-qFnzKT
- 2.3 billion more people by 2050 By 2050 the world population will reach nearly 10 billion. Source: United Nations (2015). Probabilistic Population Projections based on the World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision. Population Division, DESA. http://esa.un.org/unpd/ppp/ 70% greater food demand in 2050 Source: World Resources Report 2013-2015: Creating a Sustainable Food Future, WRI et. al Image: Ed Yourdon/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/yourdon/14531939212/in/photolist-o98Zf5-u1a2sc-5k4cgT-hAQymS-tHz5po-Cir6A-gH4NMQ-aphJJx-pXQzxJ-qtbHmk-b3cH86-tjZeWx-5ERUL-zgAQ9U-cMx2jq-5ERUK-hxhHcN-hxhfAo-tE4AcN-tAL3KQ-qQzaay-dXCMR-tAUnhp-5ERUJ-aMt3Sg-aZGhnR-tXPHQj-tEcu8M-7ZEqk9-dLtjU7-tUji89-8c7kg1-tR2ePC-sWkvid-nAmdh-tWDNWr-tR2dnQ-tWMi5x-dPnfWL-dQkbxk-dQkb7Z-drd5xB-drdf3b-drd5sT-drdeLS-drdfho-drdeDy-drdeyY-drd51T-drdeQC
- 32% of food is currently wasted from farm to fork. (measurement by weight) Source: FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).2011d. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes, and prevention. Rome: FAO. Food loss is the unintended result of an agricultural process or technical limitation in storage. Food waste is the result of negligence or a conscious decision to throw food away. Source: Reducing Food Loss and Waste Working Paper WRI-UNEP: http://www.unep.org/pdf/WRI-UNEP_Reducing_Food_Loss_and_Waste.pdf Photo: Shutterstock
- $940 billion per year in economic losses through the entire food chain (FAO 2015) Image: Flickr/Alexander Edward https://www.flickr.com/photos/alexanderedward/6078746205/in/photolist-agaat4-6deTJw-6URL53-gD769Q-26LcKW-8KzXye-5F31QD-8SzWcq-aDQK5X-dW1YGe-ypEdgq-5gwcyg-gD8nom-4bNsTe-5KCdR-ndwUiH-6kKwBa-6BoPFq-ctTFbw-aZded4-3stKP-ompxgf-aHQb2K-3bH3uP-4N8ApP-6jG2CU-r3dTEo-75rV5f-4Bw3DA-7U4G7v-wHqH2a-8spj9X-Ekfx8-82juv1-9YBdgd-9xVtxH-2L6f5-9zBMJ1-kzvNy-5iR9rs-7gCJew-gD6Nra-8eJXKK-56Qubm-8E4hb5-7vfQ9Z-hhGFY-cfXnLu-8E4gdh-opUU6K
- 795 million undernourished people in the world or 1 in 9 people Source: FAO 2015 and WFP; http://www.worldhunger.org/articles/Learn/world%20hunger%20facts%202002.htm http://www.wfp.org/hunger Photo: GAC | AMC/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfait-maeci/10056945243/in/photolist-gjGtrD-gjGb33-hfsDg2-oiZjTi-bDdedT-bnzRy8-hfrojb-hfruR9-ngAHks-nw3sgS-ewvAeE-ffBx3v-5HFo6i-hfs7Br-hhKPAB-9LS2cs-hSjMuh-bxfJzf-ccyhdS-5DkSkw-6gddme-e34AY4-hfrE2W-cAjzqJ-cAjz2A-cAjyYA-dbXU4Q-hfsvxX-6HD5z7-hfra4U-p6jz83-9LPf2z-hfs6mR-dbXTpM-dY9Nwp-dY9N4P-gkUi5N-hfrAfY-ofdVvn-pnPpEB-9BzWFG-9Bx2t8-9BzWBh-9Bx2nB-9BzWHN-9Bx2er-9BzWKf-boFs1A-AVVUPb-ewvJbu
- Food that is ultimately lost or wasted requires cropland area greater than the size of China Note: 14. million square kilometers are used in vain; China is 9.5 million square kilometers.) Source: FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2013. Food wastage footprint: impacts on natural resources. Rome: UN FAO.http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3347e/i3347e.pdf Source: The World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html Food that is ultimately lost or wasted consumes a quarter of all water used by agriculture Source: Kummu, M., H. de Moel, M. Porkka, S. Siebert, O. Varis, and P.J. Ward. 2012. “Lost food, wasted resources: Global food supply chain losses and their impacts on freshwater, cropland, and fertiliser use.” Science of the Total Environment 438: 477-489. Image: John Roberts/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/johntrathome/4937051860/in/photolist-8wgFvN-8wgEMo-8wdE5K-8wdDcB-8wdHG8-4AFQxU-9tgT3F-6e2Lot-aMJmo-78gxA4-yjDnpM-y2kGnm-8wdH88-8wdJ6p-8wgHZW-8wdDPX-8wgDjb-8wgJs3-8wdCRp-8wgHC5-69E872-65DDin-7e4WJf-v6zCB-skCDC-dBkgRU-v6zxH-6e2JTV-zpLG9-y2ro2n-y2ro8e-y2kGK5-xn4pxz-71erNk-yiWRJi-y2jGrJ-y2jJ4b-aMBqJ-78kram-78krgY-78kreE-78gxw8-78gxua-78krtE-78krP1-78krjE-78krns-Bcn3p-BcmHC-Bcnh
- If Food Loss & Waste were a country, it would be the 3rd largest emitter (after China and the US). Food that is ultimately lost or waste is responsible for 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions (4.4 Gt CO2e) Source: FAO 2015 Food wastage footprint & climate change. Rome: FAO Image source: CAIT 2015; FAO 2015 Food wastage footprint & climate change. Rome: FAO
- Goal is to halve global food waste by 2030 In September 2015, countries agreed to a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The goals include one on food loss & waste, Goal 12.3 Source: United Nations Image: United Nations
- Food Loss and Waste Protocol to be finalized in April: global accounting and reporting standard, led by WRI and partners and can be used by companies and companies for quantifying their progress toward meeting SDG target 12.3. Also, later this year, when the UN finalized the indicators to be used to measure success of the SDGs, this new protocol will be adopted as the official indicator for SDG target 12.3, prompting its global use as a measurement tool. Designed for companies and governments, the Protocol will be the global accounting and reporting standard for quantifying food loss and waste. WRI is spearheading this Protocol with the Consumer Goods Forum, WBCSD, FAO, UN, the Waste and Resources Action Programme and the EU FUSIONS initiative on measuring food wastage.Photo: Flickr/Lyza Photo: Flickr/Lyza https://www.flickr.com/photos/lyza/49545547/
- So much of the world’s food is touched by the private sector, so companies are in a unique position to lead on this issue Consumer Goods Forum (which represents more than 400 companies across 70 countries) adopted a resolution to reduce food waste among member facilities by half by 2025, becoming the first worldwide corporate resolution to reduce food waste at this scale This target is 5 years more ambitious than the SDG goal. Note: this only applies to manufacturing and retail members of the CGF. Source: Consumer Goods Forum Will additional countries and companies make FLW commitments? Images: Wikimedia Commons
- Will other companies be leaders on this issue? Tesco, one of the world’s largest food retailers, is setting the bar for leadership on reducing food waste. It is doing so in a number of ways, but I will highlight three: First, the company is transparent about its food waste Tesco was the first food retailer perhaps in the world to quantify and publicly report on its food waste This transparency helps a company better understand where and how much food is being wasted. Last year (2014/2015) Tesco wasted 55,400 tonnes of food within its operations, down 1,000 tonnes from 2014 (2013/2014) when it first began publishing this data. Second, the company takes a whole value chain approach One of the insights from Tesco’s quantification of food waste is that the majority of it in Tesco’s value chain occurs outside of its stores Therefore, Tesco not only works to reduce food waste within its stores, but also engages suppliers and customers to help them reduce food loss and waste Third, the company is innovating to increase food surplus donation No matter what it does, a retailer will have some food that goes unsold. One way to avoid that food going to waste is to get it into the hands of the people who need food most. Through its Fair Share/Food Cloud program in the UK and Ireland, Tesco stores use an “app” that tells charities when food that is unsold becomes available. Charities can then come to the stores, pick up the unsold food, and get it to food banks and soup kitchens before the food goes out of date. Now that’s a way to combine leadership, partnership, and technology to reduce food waste and help out those less fortunate Source: Tesco 2015; data independently verified. Photo: raver_mikey/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/raver_mikey
- On September 16, 2015, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced the joint USDA-EPA first-ever national food loss and waste goal, calling for a 50-percent reduction by 2030. Source: USDA http://www.usda.gov/oce/foodwaste/faqs.htm In the United States, food waste is estimated at between 30-40% of the food supply. This corresponds to 133 billion pounds and $161 billion worth of food in 2010. Source: USDA Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/media/1282296/eib121.pdf This is an issue that individuals can see and have a direct impact. Americans throw out an average 273 pounds per person per year Food waste in households/restaurants in the US costs a family of four an average of $1,600 per year Other governments taking action (either setting goals or making progress) include: United Kingdom: cut food waste by 21% between 2007 and 2012, saving UK consumers over 13 billion pounds (Source: WRAP) In 2011, The European Union released a formal resolution against food waste, acknowledging the many reasons to avoid food wastes and potential policies to prevent it. (Source: EU) Denmark: In five years, Denmark reduced food loss and waste by 25% (Source: NPR) France: French National Assembly passed a law that makes it illegal for supermarkets to destroy edible food, requires supermarkets to establish processes for food recovery with food banks, and introduces food waste prevention as a topic in schools (Source: Boursorama) Will more governments set goals in 2016? Photo: US Department of Agriculture/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/usdagov/16110143177/
- Later this month in Davos, there will be the Launch of Champions 12.3, a global, multi-stakeholder, voluntary initiative comprised of executives of governments, companies, international organizations, research institutions, and civil society organizations committing their institutions to the task of achieving SDG target 12.3. WRI will act as the secretariat. What what companies, countries, and other leaders will join this growing movement? Photo: World Economic Forum/Flickr
- Photo: superk8nyc/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/superk8/2801590280/in/photolist-5gyTbG-89vatM-5kYhFP-zcaAug-bMwwfM-6qg25k-aqEr4A-2mJ1UC-643xzv-rKqv22-2U1K44-647LbJ-vFXmn-ay6xEq-axA8iQ-dqDjar-ax1avw-ayGS66-axLPEx-ax1aaY-axLPoc-5rxpg8-643x6D-ay6xed-6CQecW-7TBCSs-6JXSSo-6pRY8T-jH5oUW-dwUud3-dC5Sa5-wSHrc-qyNhsE-34z2mq-7ruyrh-qB1ATY-dLdHMk-frxztv-9nV52w-6Dw3Z-9gdu9i-waHYeL-5q1Rc5-7gJZUm-4RsTk4-i6TEGN-9X5Eoc-6UfFa5-9PhaXV-qFnzKT
- Photo: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr
- China’s GDP increased 10 times in real terms since 1990. Note: GDP in constant 2005 US$; most recent data point is for 2014 2014: 5,270,061,138,617.2 (Most recently available data) 1990: 527,715,716,442.5 2014 GDP/1990 GDP = 9.98 Source: World Bank Development Indicators; WRI calculations http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&country=&series=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD&period= Photo: IOC Young Reporters/Flick
- For the first time last year, China missed its GDP growth target and the volatility of its stock market continues to send shock waves through global markets. China’s markets have been volatile in recent months- as you can see here in the data from the Shanghai Composite Stock Index from June to yesterday. Since the start of 2016, twice in less than a week trading was actually suspended because shares fell too quickly. January 4th, shares fell so quickly that it triggered the “circuit breaker,” a market mechanism that halts trading when losses reach a threshold. However, January 7th, trading was again suspended after shares fell more than 7% in the first 27 minutes of trading. The circuit breaker is intended to help stabilize stocks, but the Chinese authorities have since suspended the circuit breaker out of concern that the trading curb may have intensified investors’ concerns. Source: New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/business/dealbook/china-shanghai-stocks-fall.html?_r=0 Shanghai Composite Index (daily close data) via Quandl https://www.quandl.com/data/YAHOO/INDEX_SSEC-Shanghai-Composite-Index-China --- On the big drop on the first day of 2016: “It’s looking pretty ugly,”a Financial Times analyst said. Source: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ea7434e6-b2af-11e5-aad2-3e9865bc6644.html#axzz3wUtQuF2F Bank of America told investors that it expects Shanghai Compost will to fall by nearly 30% by the end of 2016. Source: http://www.newsmax.com/finance/markets/bofa-china-shanghai-composite-stock-market/2016/01/05/id/708187/
- Last December (Dec. 8 and 18, 2015), the government issued the first ever red alerts for air pollution, shutting down schools and industry in several cities in northeast China Source: New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/18/world/asia/air-pollution-widespread-china-beijing-red-alert-maps-charts.html?_r=0 According to the US Embassy in Beijing, over 50% of days in Beijing have reached ‘unhealthy’ levels of air pollution. ‘Unhealthy’ air quality means that everyone should limit prolonged outdoor exertion, especially those with lung disease, children and older adults, and people who are active outdoors. Source: BBC http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-35129258; US EPA http://www3.epa.gov/airnow/aqi_brochure_02_14.pdf Photo: V.T. Polywoda/Flickr
- And, government officials have been emphasizing the need to rebalance the Chinese economy with a “new normal” of slower but more sustainable economic growth. Quote: At the Fifth Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee Meeting in October, President Xi himself spoke about this, saying: "In the next five years, China's development should not just be focused on growth pace, but also growth volume, and, more importantly, growth quality," Source: http://english.cri.cn/12394/2015/11/03/191s902485.htm Photo: UN Photo/Loey Felipe/Flickr
- At this critical crossroads of China’s growth and development, China will finalize its 13th Fifth Year Plan, which will guide the country’s economic, social and environmental direction from 2016-2020. This Five-Year Plan, the first to be finalized under President Xi’s leadership, will set a new vision of quality and sustainable growth and development. The finalization of the FYP is a months-long process with several stages that really began last year: Timeline: October 2015: 5th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party Meeting issued a communique that will serve as the suggested guideline of the FYP. This document, in combination with China’s climate action plan under the UNFCCC and statements by President Xi Jinping, provide a glimpse of what might be included in the FYP. December 2015: Central Economic Work Conference - a closed annual meeting at which Chinese leaders sketch out guidelines to economic policies and priorities for the next year in a conference statement Central Urban Work Conference - a high-level meeting of Chinese leadership on urbanization at which President Xi gave a speech outlining priorities March 2016: Plan will be approved by the National People’s Congress. The targets and policies in the plan will be generally high-level. Remainder of 2016 and beyond: The State Council will implement the plan, assigning responsibilities to amongst Chinese ministries. The finer details under the targets and policies will continue to be elaborated, as specific sector and provincial targets and plans are set and responsibilities for implementation are allocated amongst the various ministries Photo: Remko Tanis/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/35036603@N06/5499666908/
- Peak CO2 emissions by 2030 (or earlier) Double non-fossil fuels in the energy mix by 2030 Reduce carbon intensity 60–65% from 2005 levels by 2030 Source: http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/China/1/China's%20INDC%20-%20on%2030%20June%202015.pdf ---- More details: Increase the share of non-fossil fuels in the energy mix to about 20 percent by 2030 (““To increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20%”) As of 2014, China got about 11% of its total primary energy from non-fossil sources. Source: WRI ChinaFAQs http://www.chinafaqs.org/files/chinainfo/ChinaFAQs_Renewable_Energy_Graphical_Overview_of_2014.pdf China will need to install 800-1,000 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel electricity generation capacity to achieve its 2030 non-fossil energy target. This is greater than its current coal-fired capacity and almost the total current electricity generation capacity of the United States. Peak its carbon emissions around 2030 and make best efforts to peak early; reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP (carbon intensity) by 60-65 percent from the 2005 level by 2030; and reduce carbon intensity 40-45% from 2005 levels by 2020. Photo: Peter F/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/peterfuchs/1951611087/in/photolist-3YsvZ2-dLGDsT-2fmwb-SpHfF-kkqzw-agJ9pV-mcBS-Dm7B7-bbRti4-7HxN23-agGqw6-57P3TP-57TfbG-xaeZ1-57TfP9-57TfuE-2Vvka-7k4Lha-KSYYc-c6E9w-arWfvU-rL35a-MKN5M-2GKXP-amk529-S8XbE-57NZMc-57Tckj-57TcGm-bqpN9K-4RdDqp-65f9D2-4RihQh-4RdZsK-4RhR2G-4RhGab-4ReckP-4RhGF9-4Rdt94-4RibyJ-4RdDNM-4RhN45-4RebEZ-4RhQuS-4Rdym8-4RhLMw-4RdRBe-4Ri3Q7-4Rip3b-4Rdukg
- China’s current 2020 wind power capacity target is 200 gigawatts, and its current 2020 solar power capacity target is “around” 100 gigawatts. A number of Chinese officials have indicated that these targets could be revised upward to 250 gigawatts of wind power and 150 gigawatts of solar power Source: http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL3N0YA3OT20150519 Will these targets be increased in the fifth year plan? What kind of ambition will we see? Already, China was the world’s number one investor in renewable energy in 2014, investing $83.3 billion, accounting nearly a third of global investment Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-22/u-s-wind-power-installations-rose-sixfold-in-2014-bnef Photo: The Climate Group/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/theclimategroup/10576875965/in/photolist-h7DfJr-qTVW8c-8HTjen-8K9SJc-8KcVRC-8THZgf-ih4AyX-8Dk8ih-k7qpxP-8CPb1e-eL4pev-9p6TL7-ih51US-ih5cFQ-ih4DMk-ih4KRe-ih56w7-ih5rD8-ih57wS-ih5fD2-ih4LEP-ih5gjb-ih5evb-ih4Bzp-ih4x5T-7nmi3X-8KcVWL-8K9SGZ-8K9SFM-7nqcsQ-7nmhYP-7nqco9-7nqcjC-7nmhNv-7nmhSz-7nmi1B-7nmhV4-7ouTqQ-vR6at2-ftzVck-ftQew5-ftQh9y-ftzRSH-9chSab-ftzR5R-8Jid4C-8Jid19-8JicUu-8JicKU-8JicWS
- Successfully peaking emissions and reducing carbon intensity will depend significantly on the future of coal in China As of 2014, coal use comprised 66% of China’s energy use. (1) China’s coal consumption fell in 2014 (2) and appears to have fallen in 2015 as well the energy from burning coal was roughly flat in 2014. (4) Sources: (1) http://www.reuters.com/article/china-coal-idUSL3N0WL32720150326 Note: Reflects upward revision of coal data. (2) http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201502/t20150228_687439.html (3) http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/IEEFA_Peak-Coal_November-2015.pdf (4) http://www.reuters.com/article/climatechange-carbon-china-idINL5N11L28020150915?irpc=932&utm_source=CP+Daily&utm_campaign=2fdea5ce36-CPdaily15092015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a9d8834f72-2fdea5ce36-99552861 More caps on coal? Currently, there are twelve 2017 regional-coal-control targets and ten pre-2030 CO2 emission peak commitments. Combined, these sub-national cities and regions produced more than 66% of China’s GDP in 2014. For the cities and provinces that have committed to peak their carbon emissions by the end of the FYP or soon after, this FYP will be especially important in charting a course to a peak. Limits on coal finance? How will China carry out President Xi’s statement that China will “strictly” control public investment in high-emissions projects? Source: US-China presidential statement: “China will strengthen green and low-carbon policies and regulations with a view to strictly controlling public investment flowing into projects with high pollution and carbon emissions both domestically and internationally.” Source: https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/us-china-joint-presidential-statement-climate-change Photo: Rose Robinson/Flickr
- What progress will China make on its move to a national carbon trading system in 2016? How might the government reconcile the existing pilots or what lessons will it take from them moving forward? Last October, China announced plans to launch a national ETS by 2017. Currently its 7 pilots (in 2 provinces and 5 cities) cover 18% of the population and 27% of GDP and constitute the 2nd largest ETS in the world after the EU. Full implementation of the national ETS may extend beyond 2017. Photo: ansoncfit/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/13456209@N05/14423234378/in/photolist-9cmCyd-6QU12-aCaPKf-9YqdyM-aCf25g-aCaTKJ-aChMMW-aCeL46-aBiKfz-aAFkgT-aChpME-aCf6rX-aAJ9S9-d6X47L-aBms8o-aC8dJn-aAQvqa-aA1dAT-aAFsCx-aAJ32A-aA3RTd-aATct1-aAFozr-aA3LHY-aA18eM-aBiE4g-aA3PYu-nYwR5N-aBmooh-aCaXzG-aCaVAJ-9MCGnJ-stPTFV-9b32GM-7z1rrb-5vfmhF-k1KNe-6ShP4L-6SdHmr-6ShPxJ-6SdKka-9VDJae-9VDHVp-9VDJ2Z-9VDHNT-9VGxYG-9VGxX7-9VDJ5K-9VGxLy-9VGxRC
- By 2030, China is expected to triple its building stock. From 1995 to 2005, China’s building stock nearly tripled, and it is expected to nearly triple again by 2030. China is currently experiencing a significant increase of new buildings, which represents over 2 billion square meters every year. In other words, much of the building stock that will exist in two decades is yet to be built. Source: Source: Global Buildings Performance Network: http://www.gbpn.org/activities/china; How many more low-carbon cities (pilots)? Currently there are 36 national pilot cities need citable source General urbanization data on China: Currently, 750 million Chinese live in cities. Since 1978, the number of cities jumped from 193 to 653, equivalent to the population of Romania (21 million) moving to cities each year. As China as developed, it has massively urbanized, driving China’s economic growth as well as a range of environmental problems such as air pollution, congestion,and excess waste. Therefore, a central pillar of China’s new economic growth will focus on smart urbanization. Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-12/30/content_22863986.htm Last December’s Urban Work Conference was the first to be held in 37 years. The Central Urban Work Conference is a meeting in which the central government lays out the guiding plan for the development of cities. Source: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2015-12/30/content_22863986.htm
- Most importantly, China has understood that in order to move from a highly polluting to a greener, harmonious future, they need to rebalance the economy Will China reduce excess capacity in steel & heavy industries? How fast will the service industry grow? Photo: gregoire_m/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/25294106@N07/2919369604/in/photolist-5rYwSG-ogWAzg-kD8ndr-aaJjHB-7Q4coq-rh3PAr-9kmD4c-9khMA3-bmXDWm-f4nGM3-7psjx-7iUXhS-pHmYty-nbNeKM-7iR4E6-ocRDwm-xJPN6S-5mYENE-73xQkr-7iUX4j-BYWzPa-7iUX91-8sBCEW-prWVVG-oLRVtZ-7iR4hk-7Pdzt3-v5MJo-tZpFoZ-N7mv-5VCVJ3-5XYZUP-N7M2-Evy3g-4sdazq-7PXzGc-C6jge4-fibzdq-CcVY4W-CbhP1u-vFaPUJ-BpZN8J-6HhGx8-fa9pHF-prkUsa-5ZUDyw-pJahKa-8knxDJ-pJaiZ4-61D2ww
- Photo: Trey Ratcliff/Flickr
- Photo: ABC News/Flickr
- In December 2015, the House and Senate agreed by significant margins to grant extensions to the 30 percent investment tax credit (ITC) for solar energy and the 2.3-cent-per-kilowatt-hour production tax credit (PTC) for wind power. The Investment Tax Credit for solar will continue at 30 percent levels for both commercial and residential systems through 2018, then taper off in yearly increments to settle at 10 percent in 2022 The Production Tax Credit for wind energy will remain at full strength through 2016, followed by incremental reductions in value for 2017, 2018 and 2019 before expiring in January 2020 The credits provide a bridge for renewable energy expansion between now and the first set of state compliance deadlines for U.S. EPA's Clean Power Plan in 2022 Source: ClimateWire http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/renewables-boom-expected-thanks-to-tax-credit/ Photo: Mark Fischer/Flickr
- It’s been a pretty good year on environmental issues in the US all things considered. For example, in November 2015, President Obama rejected the Keystone XL Pipeline “America is now a global leader when it comes to taking serious action to fight climate change,” Mr. Obama said in remarks from the White House. “And, frankly, approving this project would have undercut that global leadership.” Source: New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/us/obama-expected-to-reject-construction-of-keystone-xl-oil-pipeline.html Photo: Bonnie Chan/Rainforest Action Network
- In 2015, the Clean Power Plan was finalized and agreed and climate goals were established as 17% by 2020 and 26-28% by 2025 So is this target achievable? WRI’s study finds that it’s possible for the US to meet this target even without Congressional action, but only if it expands existing state and federal policies. In fact, the country could go even further than the 28 percent goal using existing federal laws and state action. Source: WRI http://wri.org/publication/delivering-us-climate-commitment-10-point-plan-toward-low-carbon-future Photo: Alex Ferguson/Flickr
- While twenty-seven states have filed suit, the list of states "just saying no" is shrinking, not growing. Source: E&E Publishing, LLC http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan
- Two-thirds (18 out of 27) of the states suing EPA are drafting a plan and most of the rest are at least exploring doing so Even those that have not officially declared they will submit plans to EPA have been meeting with utilities and public interest groups and taking other steps to prepare The trend in many states is two-pronged -- attorneys general file suit while environmental regulators and cabinet members grapple behind the scenes with compliance strategies The deadline for initial state plans is September 6, 2016 Source: E&E Publishing, LLC http://www.eenews.net/interactive/clean_power_plan
- In February or March look for a decision on whether or not to stay Clean Power Plan implementation. Will the Clean Power Plan be put on hold while the US Court of Appeals and then US Supreme Court take up the case? The next decision - on the merits of the Clean Power Plan (or whether or not it’s constitutional) - will probably be a year away. The Clean Power Plan is on a firm legal footing. Legal challenges are based on claims that the agency overstepped its authority under the Clean Air Act Source: http://www.utilitydive.com/news/final-clean-power-plan-rule-published-24-states-sue-epa/407869/ But failure to act on GHG emissions by a future U.S. President would likely be challenged in court. The Bush Administration was sued successfully by several states and environmental groups for failing to act to address GHG emissions, with the Supreme Court reaffirming EPA’s obligation three times since 2007. Sources: EDF http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2015/10/21/a-look-at-the-strong-legal-foundation-of-the-clean-power-plan/ ; http://blogs.edf.org/climate411/2015/10/21/a-look-at-the-strong-legal-foundation-of-the-clean-power-plan/ EPA regulations are required by law to be science-based, and a new administration would need scientific justification to reverse the Clean Power Plan or other existing regulations. Under the Clean Air Act, EPA has the responsibility to step in with a federal implementation plan to ensure states meet their emissions-reduction mandates set out in the Clean Power Plan. Many of the states challenging the Clean Power Plan in court have already announced they are preparing to comply with it. Finally, when the next president enters office in 2017, state implementation of the Clean Power Plan will be far along, making it much more difficult to reverse Photo: Wikimedia Commons
- EPA has given states a lot of flexibility for implementation, and the initial filings (due September 6) will be an important signal of the direction states are taking on several key issues: Will states use the Clean Power Plan target based on emission rates (lbs per MWh) or total emissions (tons), and if the latter, will they include new as well as existing sources? What sort of mechanisms will states choose to include? Emphasis on renewables, efficiency or nuclear? Market mechanisms? Will they look to interstate trading or other regional approaches? If they go with trading, will they give away or auction the permits? Photo: Energy.gov/Flickr
- More than 50 major companies have supported working with utilities to bring more renewable energy online These companies need to buy 42 million MWh of new renewable energy by 2020 – enough clean energy to power nearly 4 million US homes. Since this initiative launched in July of 2014, the number of signatories has more than quadrupled and the Principles have become a powerful platform for change Photo: Duke Energy/Flickr
- In 2016, look for more action from the executive branch, including: Identify and evaluate substitutes in the U.S. to reduce (HFCs); lead global efforts to finalize a requirement in 2016 for countries to reduce production and use of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol Finalize a proposal to improve fuel economy and cut carbon pollution from heavy-duty vehicles Finalize rules to limit methane leaks from oil and gas operations Source: EPA priorities in 2016, Gina McCarthy Blog post: https://blog.epa.gov/blog/2016/01/in-2016-were-hitting-the-ground-running/ Photo: The White House/Flickr
- Will climate weigh in as a deciding factor in the US Presidential and Legislative races? Will it be a major favor? On the democratic side you have two front runners very supportive of climate action. Photo: ABC News/Flickr
- Will the eventual Republican nominee take a more thoughtful, rational stance on the issue? After Paris Accord, Republican Primary Debate didn’t have a single question about climate change... But we’re already seeing some R Senators moving toward support for climate action; will climate be an issue in swing states? 4 moderate Republican senators recently formed the Energy and Environment Working Group: Sen. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), Mark Kirk (Ill.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) Will the percentage of voters who say climate is a determining factor of their vote grow? Will that percentage reach 6%? While 63 percent of Americans polled say climate change is a serious problem, that’s a 6 point drop from the same poll conducted just a year-and-a-half ago. Meanwhile, 36 percent of people say climate change is not a serious problem at all, a 7 point increase from the previous poll Source: ABC News/Washington Post poll: http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1173a5ClimateChange.pdf Photo: AP
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- Photo: ABC News/Flickr
- Image: Greenpeace