Next Station: Our Low Carbon Future
•
2 gefällt mir•1,199 views
Presentation by EMBARQ Director Holger Dalkmann. - Next Station: Our Low Carbon Future: En Route to a Transportwende? Climate Solutions for the Transportation Sector
Empfohlen
Empfohlen
Weitere ähnliche Inhalte
Was ist angesagt?
Was ist angesagt? (18)
Ähnlich wie Next Station: Our Low Carbon Future
Ähnlich wie Next Station: Our Low Carbon Future (20)
Mehr von World Resources Institute (WRI)
Mehr von World Resources Institute (WRI) (20)
Kürzlich hochgeladen
Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)
Next Station: Our Low Carbon Future
- 1. HOLGER DALKMANN, DIRECTOR, EMBARQ, WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE NEXT STATION: OUR LOW-CARBON FUTURE En Route to a Transportwende? Climate Solutions for the Transportation Sector - Nov. 24, 2014
- 2. THE URBANIZATION CHALLENGE • Over 50% of the global population now live in cities and urban areas, rising to 70% by 2050. Billion People 0 2 4 6 8 10 20502040203020202010200019901980197019601950 Global population Urban population Rural population 70% 50% 30% Cities
- 3. CITIES: ENGINES OF GROWTH AND PROSPERITY • The 150 largest metropolitan economies account for 14% of global population yet generate 41% of global GDP
- 4. CITIES ARE KEY DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Note: Population split from 2011, GDP split estimate from Grubler et al 2007 cited in GEA 2012, Energy use split from GEA 2005, Emissions from World Energy Outlook 2006 SOURCE: World Urbanisation Prospects, Grubler et al 2007, GEA 2012, WEO 2006 52% of Population 80% of GDP
- 5. 250 million 1970 1 billion 2010 3 billion? 2050 Stock of Motorcars
- 6. Reduced Gap BRIDGING THE GAP TO A 2 DEGREE SCENARIO Reference: UNEP 2013 Gap Report Transport 1.7 – 2.5 Gt 2 degree scenario 17Gt Gap Business As Usual 2 degree scenario
- 7. THE CHALLENGE – 23% REDUCTION FOR 2°AND $20T Source: IEA (2012) Energy Technology Perspectives 42,971 33,194 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Road Travel (Billion Veh‐Km) 4 Degree Scenario 2 Degree Scenario
- 8. RELATED HEALTH & SAFETY IMPACTS Source: EMBARQ Analysis, Duduta and Hidalgo (2013) 3,783,009 5,098,418 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Worldwide annual traffic fatalities 2 Degree Scenario 4 Degree Scenario
- 9. Source: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/package/index_en.htm EU commitment: 40 % GHG reduction by 2030 Norway – Carbon Neutrality by 2030 (for negotiation at Paris)
- 10. COST OF CONGESTION IN EU
- 11. COSTS OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION Sources: Christidis, P. and Ibáñez Rivas, J. N., 2012. Measuring Road Congestion. European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Total EU Germany France UK Annual Cost of Congestion (€B) Cost of Congestion as % of GDP 2009 • In Europe €110Bn is lost annually due to traffic congestion
- 12. COSTS OF TRAFFIC CONGESTION Sources: IBM Institute for Business Value, Smarter cities for smarter growth. Li-Zeng Mao, Hong-Ge Zhu, and Li-Ren Duan (2012) The Social Cost of Traffic Congestion and Countermeasures in Beijing. Sustainable Transportation Systems: pp. 68-76. 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% PercentageofGDP Cost of Traffic Congestion as a Percentage of GDP Traffic congestion costs some cities more than 4% of GDP
- 14. AIR QUALITY IMPACTS Source: World Health Organisation: http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.wrapper.ENVHEALTH3 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 NewYork LosAngeles Chicago BuenosAires SaoPaulo RiodeJaneiro Bogota MexicoCity Lima Paris Essen Moscow Istanbul London Kinshasa Cairo Tehran Baghdad Lagos Johannesburg Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen Tianjin Dongguan Chengdu Wuhan Chongqung Hangzhou HongKong Tokyo Osaka Nagoya Manila Seoul Taipei Bangkok HoChiMinhCity Dhaka Delhi Mumbai Calcutta Chennai Bengaluru Hyderabad Ahmedabad Jakarta Karachi Lahore North America Latin America Europe & Central Asia Middle-east & North Africa East Asia & Pacific South Asia WHO air quality standard PM10 <20 per m3 Particulate matter per m3 for top 50 cities – higher particulate matter means worse air quality • Of a selection of the world’s biggest cities by population none meet WHO air quality standards
- 15. LOCAL ISSUES: ROAD SAFETY
- 16. LOCAL ISSUES: PHYSICAL INACTIVITY 3.2 million people are affected for illnesses derived from physical inactivity and obesity
- 17. “BUSINESS AS USUAL” IS BREAKING DOWN LOST ACCESSIBILITYLOST TIME LOST PUBLIC SPACELOST HEALTH
- 19. CIGARETTE SMOKING • Percentage decrease in the adult population who smokes daily from 2000 – 2010 Source: OECD Health Data 2012; Eurostat Statistics Database; WHO Global Infobase. 11.3% 13.7% 20.4% 40.6% 16.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
- 20. CIGARETTE SMOKING • Percentage decrease in the adult population who smokes daily from 2000 – 2010 Source: OECD Health Data 2012; Eurostat Statistics Database; WHO Global Infobase. 11.3% 13.7% 20.4% 40.6% 16.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
- 21. WHERE DO PEOPLE STAY? IHG •65 years •645K rooms •100 countries Hilton •93 years •610K rooms •88 countries Accor •44 years •530K rooms •92 countries Airbnb •4 years •650K rooms •192 countries
- 22. PARADIGM SHIFT: NEW YORK CITY
- 23. PARADIGM SHIFT IN US? • Proportion of population with driving licenses by age (2002-2008) Source: Sivak and Schoettle, 2011 http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/86680/102764.pdf
- 24. BUILD ON GLOBAL BEST PRACTICES: • Portland City’s transportation policies save its residents $2.6 billion that can be invested in the local economy. Source: “Portland’s Green Dividend,” Joe Cortright, CEO for Cities (2007). 24
- 25. PARADIGM SHIFT? NORWAY • Proportion of population with driving licenses by age (1991-2009) Source: Sivak and Schoettle, 2011 http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/86680/102764.pdf
- 26. HAVE WE HIT PEAK TRAVEL? • Passenger kilometers by private car & light truck 1990-2009 • (Index 1990=100) Source: International Transport Forum 2012
- 27. Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea PARADIGM SHIFT: TREND VS. LEAPFROGGING
- 28. WHAT WOULD A PARADIGM SHIFT LOOK LIKE?
- 29. Emission Reduction + Co-benefits Technology Improvements Public Transport Non- motorized Transport Urban development and transport integration AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE AVOID-SHIFT-IMPROVE (ASI) APPROACH
- 30. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE LOW CARBON FUTURE DEMAND SUPPLY Accessibility
- 31. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE LOW CARBON FUTURE DEMAND Accessibility
- 32. ATLANTA VS. BARCELONA • The 2 have similar populations and wealth levels, but very different carbon productivities. ATLANTA’S BUILT-UP AREA BARCELONA’S BUILT-UP AREA Population: 2.5 million Urban area: 4,280 km2 Transport carbon emissions: 7.5 tonnes CO2 per person (public+ private transport) Population: 2.8 million Urban area: 162 km2 Transport carbon emissions: 0.7 tonnes CO2 per person (public+ private transport) Source: Laconte, P., Urban and Transport Management - International Trends and Practices, in International Symposium "Sustainable Urban Transport and City. 2005, Tongji University and Nagoya University: Shanghai, carfreeinbigd.com, chron.com/the highwayman, ec.Europa.eu for emissions for Copenhagen, World Bank for emissions for Houston
- 33. HOUSTON VS. COPENHAGEN • Contrast shows the economic benefits and cost savings from mass transit and compactness Source: Laconte, P., Urban and Transport Management - International Trends and Practices, in International Symposium "Sustainable Urban Transport and City. 2005, Tongji University and Nagoya University: Shanghai, carfreeinbigd.com, chron.com/the highwayman, ec.Europa.eu for emissions for Copenhagen, World Bank for emissions for Houston Houston Copenhagen Population density: 3,500 per sq/mi ~4% of people use public transport, 95% of trips are by car 14% of local GDP spent on transportation Emissions per capita (tCO2e/capita): 14.1 Population density: 17,000 per sq/mi ~46% of people use public transport, cycling also common 4% of local GDP spent on transportation Emissions per capita (tCO2e/capita): 4.7
- 34. CHOICES MATTER • Cities & countries with similar levels of GDP per capita can have vastly different carbon emissions 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Germany Hamburg UK France Canada Paris London New York City USA Australia Sydney Toronto Cape Town Shanghai South Africa Mexico Mexico City São Paulo BrazilChina India Delhi PerCapitaCO2Emissions (tonnes) GDP per capita (2008 USD)
- 35. COMPACT AND CONNECTED URBAN PATHWAYS CAN GO HAND IN HAND WITH ECONOMIC GROWTH Source: Rode, Floater et al. 2013; Floater, Rode et al. 2013, 2014.
- 36. Savings in global infrastructure spending to 2030 from more compact, connected urban development Source: New Climate Economy analysis.
- 39. TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT IN KBV
- 40. VEHICLE DEMAND MANAGEMENT Source: EMBARQ http://thecityfix.com/blog/on-the-move-limiting-car-usage-vehicle- demand-management-industrialized-economies-heshuang-zeng/vehicle-demand- management-strategies-embarq/
- 41. LOW EMISSION ZONES 13 48 71 79 131 151 192 226 0 50 100 150 200 250 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 #ofLEZCitiesinEU
- 42. GERMAN LOW EMISSION ZONES
- 44. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE LOW CARBON FUTURE SUPPLY Accessibility
- 45. NEW TRENDS ON THE RISE Source: EMBARQ; http://thecityfix.com/blog/on-the-move-advancing-sustainable- transport-getting-from-here-to-there-holger-dalkmann/
- 46. HIGH LEVEL OF SERVICE BUSES IN EUROPE Source: (Finn et. al, 2011) Cambridge, UK
- 47. BRT AND BUSWAY SYSTEMS IN THE WORLD Source: EMBARQ, 2011 Planned / in construction (82 cities) In expansion (23 cities) In operation (163 cities)
- 48. BRT GROWTH IN EUROPE Source: BRTdata.org 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Cumulative System Total New BRT Systems New Systems Cumulative Total
- 49. KEY BHLS COMPONENTS Running ways Stations Vehicles Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), operation management tools Identity of the BHLS scheme
- 50. BHLS IN EUROPE Country Cities with BHLS England Cambridge, Crawley, Dartford, Leeds France Lille, Lorient, Lyon, Nantes, Paris, Rennes, Rouen, Toulouse Germany Essen, Hamburg, Oberhausen Ireland Dublin Italy Brescia*, Pisa, Prato Netherlands Alkmaar, Almere, Amsterdam, Eindhoven, Twente, Utrecht Spain Barcelona*, Castellón, Madrid Sweden Gothenburg, Jönköping, Lund, Stockholm Source: Brendan Finn ETTS Ltd., Ireland
- 51. GLOBAL GROWTH OF CAR SHARE 2000-2012
- 52. CAR SHARING • For every shared car, there are 15 fewer owned cars on the road. (Source: Zipcar) Source: http://futureofcarsharing.com/
- 53. GLOBAL GROWTH OF BIKE-SHARE 2000-2013 Source: Peter Midgely and EMBARQ
- 54. BIKE SHARING IN LONDON & MADRID Photo source: Flickr user shaggy359, LONDON MADRID
- 55. BIKE SHARING SUCCESS FACTORS • Go Big or Go Home Create a big, dense system with broad coverage or it won’t get used. • You Get What You Pay For Quality of infrastructure can make or break a system • Merge the Financials Make the case for subsidies • Evolve or Disappear Evolving payment systems that work for the new technology • Connect Across Borders Work with established international service providers with experience
- 56. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE LOW CARBON FUTURE – INTEGRATION & DISRUPTION DEMAND SUPPLY DISRUPTIVE SOLUTIONS ? ACCESSIBILITY
- 58. BLURRING LINES BETWEEN PUBLIC & PRIVATE
- 59. HELSINKI RIDESHARING: KUTSUPLUS & AJELO
- 60. RIDESHARING: UBER, LYFT, SIDECAR…
- 61. BIG DATA SOLUTIONS • Real-time traffic and transport data through bus location devices, cell phone data tracking, and crowd-sourced information platforms, like Waze
- 62. OPEN SOURCE DATA APPLICATIONS Within 1 hour: Real-time bus locations on Google Earth Within 1 week: Desktop widget with transit countdown information Within 5 weeks: iPhone and Andriod transit tracking & planning apps • Open source transit data can enable live trip planning tools and other new innovations • When Boston’s transit authority opened its data in 2009, the results were immediate:
- 63. DISRUPTING THE 9-5 • Alternatives to working one 9-5 job for one employer
- 64. TELEWORKING
- 65. ONLINE SHOPPING & DELIVERY SERVICES
- 66. Open Data Bike Sharing Car Sharing CONVENTIONAL SOLUTIONS & INNOVATIVE DISRUPTIONS Biking Metro Buses Walking
- 67. 5 ELEMENTS FOR TOWARDS A TRANSPORTWENDE Political Will – Leadership and Community Support Finance – Sustainable investment in Infrastructure and Operations Integrated Planning – Land-use and Sustainable Mobility Enable entrepreneurial environment for disruptive solutions Technology as enabler to better cleaner vehicles & integrated (disruptive) solutions
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Slide from From New Climate Economy Already live in an urban world……passed the point where over 50% of world's population live in cities. Expected to reach close to 70% by 2050. Cities also critical drivers of economic activity: The 150 largest metropolitan economies account for 14% of global population yet generate 41% of global GDP. Additional content from initial slide: The 150 largest metropolitan economies account for 14% of global population yet generate 41% of global GDP. The urbanisation trend presents significant opportunities SOURCE: LSE Cities and Oxford Economics based on United Nations World Urbanization Prospects, 2007 Revision and Oxford Economics City 750 database. See Floater, G., Rode, P., Robert, A., Kennedy, C., Hoornweg, D., Slavcheva, R. and Godfrey, N., 2014 (forthcoming). Cities and the New Climate Economy: the transformative role of global urban growth. New Climate Economy contributing paper. LSE Cities, London School of Economics and Political Science. To be available at: http://newclimateeconomy.report.
- Slide from From New Climate Economy Cities are at the heart of driving economic development and structural transformation. See how closely GDP and urbanisation are related as rising agricultural productivity creates surplus labour for deployment elsewhere in industry and services, primarily located in urban centres. Most successful high-income countries have economically dynamic cities at the heart of their regional and national economies. Cities are rapidly transforming the economic landscape of emerging markets and developing countries…….. Original text on the slide: 1 Definition of urbanization varies by country; pre-1950 figures for the United Kingdom are estimated. 2 Historical per capita GDP series expressed in 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars, which reflect purchasing power parity. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute, Population Division of the United Nations; Angus Maddison via Timetrics; Global Insight; Census reports of England and Wales; Honda in Steckel & Floud,1997; Bairoch, 1975
- Picture of cars from: http://ethanolfacts.com/lower-toxic-emissions/
- This does not make the point as well as the diverse, city specific stats do, but these are more relevant to the audience. Even in Europe, there is $$$ wasted ($100B Euros) on traffic congestion untapped market for innovation
- Classified countries using World Bank classification: http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/0,,contentMDK:20421402~menuPK:64133156~pagePK:64133150~piPK:64133175~theSitePK:239419,00.html Information on Beijing: In 1998, Beijing launched a ‘Defending the Blue Sky’ campaign with air quality data becoming openly available on a weekly basis in February 1998 [1–3], and on a daily basis in June 2000 The World Health Organization (WHO) guideline for daily PM10 concentrations is 50 µg m−3, and the annual average PM10 concentration guideline is 20 µg m−3 [5, 24]. The WHO also has established less stringent interim targets to assist countries in tracking progress over time in reducing population exposure to particulate matter. For daily PM10 concentration the interim target-1 is 150 µg m−3, and the annual average PM10 interim target-1 is 70µg m−3. Neither the Chinese national ambient air quality standards, nor the World Health Organization guidelines, differentiate between particulate from anthropogenic and natural sources, or between pollution from local and distant sources in the air quality standards [23a, 19]. However, in the United States, extreme events are not included in determining violation of the national ambient air quality standards [67]. Particulate pollution from dust storms [11, 24], biomass burning and distant sources [7, 26] impacts Beijing air quality, and has complicated control efforts taken by the Beijing government From: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/3/3/034009/pdf/1748-9326_3_3_034009.pdf
- To sum up: topics; drop numbers
- Slide from From New Climate Economy This plots GDP per capita of cities and carbon emissions. Original text: SOURCE: LSE Cities based on multiple sources
- In Houston, 95% of trips are by car. In Dallas, 96% of trips are by car. In Houston, 14% of local GDP is spent on transportation. Simply, getting around and participating in the economy. In Copenhagen, which has been systematically and incrementally reducing the role and necessity of private automobile cost and usage since the 1960's, only spends 4% of GDP on transportation. Population densities from: http://blog.chron.com/thehighwayman/2014/05/traffic-is-in-the-eye-of-the-beskueren/ Emissions from http://ec.europa.eu/environment/europeangreencapital/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Section-1-Local-contribution-to-climate-change_Copenhagen.pdf page 3 Emissions for Houston from: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTUWM/Resources/GHG_Index_Mar_9_2011.pdf Transport as % of GDP figures: http://www.carfreeinbigd.com/2014/03/the-destructive-fiscal-irresponsibility.html
- In Houston, 95% of trips are by car. In Dallas, 96% of trips are by car. In Houston, 14% of local GDP is spent on transportation. Simply, getting around and participating in the economy. In Copenhagen, which has been systematically and incrementally reducing the role and necessity of private automobile cost and usage since the 1960's, only spends 4% of GDP on transportation. Population densities from: http://blog.chron.com/thehighwayman/2014/05/traffic-is-in-the-eye-of-the-beskueren/ Emissions from http://ec.europa.eu/environment/europeangreencapital/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Section-1-Local-contribution-to-climate-change_Copenhagen.pdf page 3 Emissions for Houston from: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTUWM/Resources/GHG_Index_Mar_9_2011.pdf Transport as % of GDP figures: http://www.carfreeinbigd.com/2014/03/the-destructive-fiscal-irresponsibility.html
- Cars are only part of the picture, but not the whole story. Let’s think outside of the box
- Countries: Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, Austria and UK.
- Residents of Portland Oregon, drive on average about 20% less a day (4 miles) than residents of the other 32 most populous metropolitan areas in the United States. The estimated savings is 2.6 billion in transportation costs and time. That’s over a billion dollars that is available for investment in goods and services produced by the local economy, as well as tens of millions of hours available for more productive activity. Portland’s Green Dividend, Joe Cortright, 2007
- Crowdsourcing data can provide data on traffic, and also less obvious issues, including dangerous road crossing, unsafe pavement, incomplete or blocked cycle paths, lack of enforcement of street regulations, or lack of bike parking
- Taskrabbit: outsource household errands and skilled tasks to people in your community oDesk: global online work platform where businesses and independent professionals connect and collaborate remotely Freelancer: global outsourcing marketplace, which allows potential employers to post jobs that freelancers can then bid to complete Elance: Freelance rated web developers, mobile programmers, designers, writers, translators, marketing pros, etc. PeoplePerHour.com: online freelance marketplace Fiverr: global online marketplace offering tasks and services, referred to as 'gigs' beginning at a cost of $5 per job performed, from which it gets its name. Guru: web, software, and IT freelancers GetACoder: Programming freelancing marketplace 99designs: freelance marketplace for graphic design, including logo design, web design and other design contests Etsy: Handmade & vintage item marketplace