The document discusses using modelled hydrological data to assess river health over time for different scenarios. It presents monthly flow data from 1900-1909 for four scenarios: natural flows, current flows, climate change flows, and all have the same dates, length, and no gaps to allow comparison. The modeled data can generate a single health score rather than values for each year and allows evaluating changes from a natural baseline to current and future conditions.

1. Hydrological methods for river
health assessment
Dr Chris Gippel, Australia
Workshop on China’s national river health assessment program
Ministry of Water Resources
2012 February 22

2. What data to use?
Monthly Daily Monthly Daily
Measured Measured Modelled Modelled
Cost
Availability/coverage
Gaps
Record length
Scenarios (natural)
Hydrological detail
Links to ecology

3. Measured versus modelled data
Modelled “Reference”
Measured “Historical pre-dam”
Measured “Historical post-dam”
Flow parameter
Modelled “Current”
pre-dam post-dam
Time (increasing water resources development)

4. China
Modelled “Reference”
Measured “Historical pre-dam”
Measured “Historical post-dam”
Flow parameter
pre-dam post-dam
Time (increasing water resources development)

5. Australia
Modelled “Reference”
Flow parameter
Modelled “Current”
Modelled “Climate change”
Time (increasing water resources development)

6. History of Assessment in Australia – all
use modelled data
• 1995 – Annual Proportional Flow Deviation (APFD) Gherke et al. (1995)
• 1999 –Amended Annual Proportional Flow Deviation (APFD) – Victorian
ISC (Ladson and While, 1999)
– Same as Chinese Flow Variation Degree (FD)
• 2002 – National Land and Water Resources Audit – Hydrological
Disturbance Index (early version of FSR)
– annual flow, variability, seasonality
– Could only analyse 14% of Basin river length (due to lack of data)
• 2001 to 2005 – Flow Stress Ranking (FSR) first used in Victoria
• Currently – Versions of FSR used in:
– Victoria (ISC)
– Tasmania (TRCI)
– Murray-Darling (SRA)
– National Framework for the Assessment of River and Wetland Health (FARWH)

7. Presentation Heading

8. Presentation Heading

9. Modelled scenarios
1
Date Natural Current ∆Climate
/01/1900 243.72 5 109.53 8 257.44 8
• Scenarios (monthly)
1/02/1900 227.02 5 63.8 6 280.05 7
1/03/1900 230.77 8 220.54 3 182.10 5
1/04/1900 250.65 2 462.93 5 195.48 6
1/05/1900 216.58 9 433.07 4 199.35 3
1/06/1900 301.90 5 571.80 9 301.89 4
1/07/1900 405.36 7 917.88 9 405.29 4
1/08/1900 455.19 8 926.63 2 454.43 2
1/09/1900 368.63 3 1160.76 8 369.6 9
1/10/1900 301.63 1 791.81 7 368.94 9
1/11/1900 319.78 3 423.42 8 348.12 6
1/12/1900 352.13 8 221.00 1 347.84 8
1/01/1901 328 .6 110.83 4 328 .6
1/02/1901 290.59 2 54.8 9 293.05 2
1/03/1901 258.48 1 54.12 9 306.59 1
1/04/1901 361.85 5 61.03 2 174.93 8
1/05/1901 163.17 2 119.49 7 165.17 2
1/06/1901 129.61 1 283.72 1 129.6 8
– Same dates
1/07/1901 126.19 9 218.51 6 126.10 4
1/08/1901 245.01 9 419.18 6 234.53 7
1/09/1901 402.58 8 1034.14 8 400.73 8
1/10/1901 310.19 8 895.84 2 307.90 7
1/11/1901 445.68 7 790.65 5 512.42 5
1/12/1901 361.95 7 190.0 2 368.01 3
1/01/1902 325.5 8 118.1 7 326.51 8
1/02/1902 296.13 6 50.83 7 273.26 6
1/03/1902 325.44 1 50.9 6 244.99 4
1/04/1902 268.8 4 69.63 6 149.06 2
1/05/1902 118.09 5 41.03 9 140.41 4
1/06/1902 103.0 1 212.4 6 97.67 7
1/07/1902 103.67 3 204.95 1 105.11 8
1/08/1902 228.56 2 97.0 2 240.11 2
1/09/1902 172.88 4 156.04 4 185.97 9
– Same length
1/10/1902 278.68 7 285.35 1 265.08 6
1/11/1902 304.48 7 108.54 8 318.16 9
1/12/1902 228.36 3 147.40 5 330.06 2
1/01/1903 328.52 5 89.62 6 328 .6
1/02/1903 284.93 9 41.91 2 257.34 1
1/03/1903 173.76 5 85.3 9 170.17 4
1/04/1903 114.15 7 132.28 5 110.40 2
1/05/1903 98.8 4 178.94 3 99.91 3
1/06/1903 205.78 1 311.69 5 205.72 7
1/07/1903 386.36 8 704.70 2 384.93 6
1/08/1903 113.68 8 391.29 2 110.33 2
1/09/1903 257.65 3 702.03 8 254.70 4
1/10/1903 264.93 7 840.77 5 354.15 8
1/11/1903 326.9 7 445.11 8 380.60 4
1/12/1903 254.82 3 234.93 6 239.77 3
– No gaps
1/01/1904 198.58 6 294.27 8 199.29 3
1/02/1904 234.31 6 138.20 2 243.47 7
1/03/1904 299.22 7 86.97 7 255.17 1
1/04/1904 244.30 2 57.6 8 173.57 3
1/05/1904 96.73 4 133.02 3 115.17 3
1/06/1904 160.62 7 298.99 2 154.59 3
1/07/1904 518.91 5 871.14 5 518.87 3
1/08/1904 381.31 8 725.5 9 380.79 2
1/09/1904 304.50 8 850.60 9 310.94 2
1/10/1904 425.72 9 1105.90 8 424.46 9
1/11/1904 500.0 1 804.04 5 500.0 1
1/12/1904 400.00 9 247.54 1 399.98 7
1/01/1905 328.24 5 120.45 6 327.56 8
1/02/1905 237.80 9 62.2 3 240.59 1
1/03/1905 228.12 3 42.33 5 236.08 7
• Result
1/04/1905 148.09 6 68.79 2 146.66 1
1/05/1905 120.41 1 87.30 2 115.5 1
1/06/1905 179.42 9 376.09 6 179.09 3
1/07/1905 790.30 6 1565.55 9 790.05 1
1/08/1905 365.79 4 857.74 3 364.62 8
1/09/1905 218.75 7 680.61 7 221.49 3
1/10/1905 234.42 1 855.69 7 266.78 7
1/11/1905 358.67 7 936.5 7 317.04 9
1/12/1905 404.00 7 416.56 3 402.37 6
1/01/1906 406.51 2 146.65 7 379.7 3
1/02/1906 257.13 3 55.08 7 264.27 4
1/03/1906 260.72 4 349.77 7 273.83 5
1/04/1906 177.79 6 241.07 6 205.00 7
1/05/1906 152.52 7 451.0 4 158.27 2
1/06/1906 455.24 8 846.05 1 455.24 8
1/07/1906 681.19 1 1557 .4 681.12 4
1/08/1906 530.46 8 1344.17 7 529.75 3
– For each indicator
1/09/1906 827.79 9 1467.78 1 825.6 9
1/10/1906 1479.80 4 1986.42 9 1473.34 2
1/11/1906 615.07 2 873.53 7 611 .5
1/12/1906 439.3 8 796.57 6 456.66 9
1/01/1907 270.32 9 296.82 6 399.49 5
1/02/1907 224.92 2 142.81 9 267.88 3
1/03/1907 258.07 2 96.25 2 259.87 4
1/04/1907 260.9 4 99.36 3 227.53 5
1/05/1907 134.82 7 172.24 9 83.93 8
1/06/1907 113.37 2 257.9 9 109.63 3
1/07/1907 155.97 3 267.66 8 155.87 8
1/08/1907 335.53 3 704.79 1 334.55 1
1/09/1907 235.78 4 530.12 5 188.98 5
1/10/1907 430.42 5 563.07 5 398.38 2
1/11/1907 456.90 7 479.94 2 477.90 4
• A single score
1/12/1907 407.90 1 262.45 3 365.59 6
1/01/1908 332.61 2 157.25 4 341.44 2
1/02/1908 314.15 3 94.1 8 301.31 8
1/03/1908 326.44 5 67.96 6 289.55 2
1/04/1908 302.04 6 50.9 5 239.74 5
1/05/1908 110.48 3 126.46 4 162.4 2
1/06/1908 188.23 9 305.63 9 197.80 7
1/07/1908 240.33 5 414.63 7 240.2 3
1/08/1908 161.87 9 401.32 4 169.64 8
1/09/1908 266.17 2 783.79 6 263.55 3
1/10/1908 286.42 7 818.06 8 276.53 7
1/11/1908 384.46 6 401.73 8 486.96 6
1/12/1908 374.11 4 166.50 4 345.28 7
• Not a value for each year
1/01/1909 328.46 2 76.85 3 328.52 5
1/02/1909 241.97 7 53.1 9 288.59 9
1/03/1909 223.34 6 118.35 3 305.81 4
1/04/1909 234.16 8 112.12 4 315.49 6
1/05/1909 345.95 1 557.13 9 352.53 4
1/06/1909 654.76 1 1116.92 8 654.35 2
1/07/1909 484.26 7 1219.42 8 484.18 4
1/08/1909 909.20 2 2114.95 6 908.69 1
1/09/1909 368.09 2 1112.32 4 366.90 5
1/10/1909 522.76 2 808.73 5 336.34 1
1/11/1909 481.11 2 358.98 8 568.63 5
1/12/1909 419.65 2 164.91 4 413.41 4
1/01/1910 328 .6 95.28 4 333.39 5
1/02/1910 264.49 2 60.56 3 220.35 4
1/03/1910 281.15 4 68.28 7 238.78 2
1/04/1910 206.56 8 44.28 8 242.6 2
1/05/1910 74.18 4 80.43 9 85.78 7
1/06/1910 93.59 5 207.72 9 95.38 8
1/07/1910 343.64 1 538.04 8 343.57 7
1/08/1910 215.35 1 407.83 1 248.75 9
1/09/1910 768.80 1 1415.52 5 770.8 2
1/10/1910 499.98 9 966.61 2 500.00 7
1/11/1910 499.99 5 670.8 7 500.00 7
1/12/1910 399.99 9 472.54 9 400.00 2
1.0
1/01/1911 247.55 4 302.50 8 225.0 1
1/02/1911 183.21 1 382.69 5 201.16 2
1/03/1911 200.64 2 470.12 6 306.21 5
1/04/1911 282.79 7 223.60 3 307.80 4
1/05/1911 133.08 7 205.04 6 135.71 2
0.99 0.997
1/06/1911 338.90 3 661.20 7 338.86 9
0.9 0.98 0.98
1/07/1911 302.25 2 777.28 2 302.14 9
0.96 0.96
1/08/1911 187.88 9 777.13 9 186.50 2
0.94
1/09/1911 122.97 8 531.7 1 137.3 5
1
1
1
/1
/1
/1
0
1
2
/1
/1
/1
9
9
9
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
4
2
1
1
9
2
1
7
.4
.1
.4
2
9
5
2
4
6
4
2
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2
2
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9 0.93 0.90 0.91
0.8
1/01/1912 327.04 1 111.33 6 331.58 4
1/02/1912 268.71 7 56.37 1 245.04 5
1/03/1912 287.5 1 51.15 5 301.58 4
1/04/1912 266.25 7 56.53 6 195.06 4
1/05/1912 89.19 2 46.67 9 92.83 5
1/06/1912 85.08 4 93.82 7 94.92 5
0.7 0.77
1/07/1912 255.89 1 488.00 7 255.35 4
1/08/1912 220.36 2 401.84 6 219.98 8
1/09/1912 841.48 7 1594.64 4 840.83 9
1/10/1912 499.99 4 889.98 1 500.00 9
1/11/1912 516.70 3 638.15 3 515.59 9
1/12/1912 400.00 6 749.0 8 265.67 1
0.6
1/01/1913 240.4 6 336.33 9 374.82 1
1/02/1913 228.16 4 112.27 2 229.96 4
1/03/1913 248.51 7 289.51 5 231.00 8
1/04/1913 306.3 1 243.05 3 305.89 5
1/05/1913 136.62 5 235.91 2 133.28 5
1/06/1913 98.69 5 300.11 3 98.4 8
1
1
1
1
/0
/0
/0
/1
7
8
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0
/1
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9
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2
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3
5
3
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.3
4
4
5
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1
5
9
5
0.5
1/11/1913 427.12 5 527.37 9 395.94 4
0.4
1/12/1913 365.10 4 206.42 4 352.95 9
1/01/1914 324.48 7 119.70 5 328 .6
1/02/1914 292.68 2 70.84 4 296 .8
1/03/1914 318.85 9 49.22 5 306.95 2
1/04/1914 325.92 5 100.32 5 384.45 9
1/05/1914 157.83 4 218.53 3 157.3 9
0.3
1/06/1914 178.1 6 153.77 5 181.76 2
1/07/1914 109.56 5 231.58 1 108.54 5
1/08/1914 168.45 6 194.16 9 168.28 4
1/09/1914 418.99 4 228.83 2 336.33 1
1/10/1914 535.11 7 130.23 7 484.33 8
1/11/1914 484.88 8 52.45 6 494.27 4
0.2
1/12/1914 356.91 2 84.09 5 347.41 5
1/01/1915 328 .6 62.83 9 328 .6
1/02/1915 296 .8 31.33 7 270.50 7
1/03/1915 194.0 3 24.15 4 180.21 7
1/04/1915 109.9 2 30.40 9 100.80 1
H
o
u
n
h
d
1/05/1915 89.36 5 160.38 4 88.12 7
e
a
0.1
g
v
y
x
c
1/06/1915 537.81 1 412.72 5 306.07 4
r
I
i
l
1/07/1915 610.61 5 1075.5 6 567.02 9
1/08/1915 627.58 1 1370.90 5 626.67 6
1/09/1915 383.53 8 1027.49 1 381.78 5
1/10/1915 390.7 7 1639.49 8 380.31 4
1/11/1915 500.0 1 825.17 8 412.31 4
1
1
1
1
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/0
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2
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9
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9
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7
6
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2
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1
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1
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8
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6
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5
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7
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0.0
1/04/1916 138.68 7 84.75 8 276.37 3
A SA SP LF (Q90) HF (Q10) PZD FD CV Mean Median FSR
1/05/1916 129.68 2 126.88 8 147.50 4
1/06/1916 131.71 2 269.63 8 133.98 3
1/07/1916 743.59 5 1406.56 6 743.54 5
1/08/1916 664.18 1 1212.19 2 663.60 7
1/09/1916 758.23 6 1574.54 7 757.16 1
(Q99.5) Ann Q Ann Q Overall
1/10/1916 753.50 2 1503.32 8 858.68 6
1/11/1916 1008.39 5 1404.57 1 1012.26 5
1/12/1916 695.04 3 1147.21 7 690.35 3
1/01/1917 246.03 4 432.56 5 260.53 6
1/02/1917 237.65 1 239.8 8 226.72 2
1/03/1917 284.43 5 239.1 1 291.90 1

10. Site distribution
Hydrology station
Modelled hydrology point

11. New approaches – using measured data
No e-flows study E-flows study done
• Assume monthly data • Assume daily data available
available • E-flows recommended
• Assume data available before components define the
regulation - “reference” “reference” hydrology
hydrology • Measure the compliance of
• Calculate ecologically the flow with the e-flows
meaningful indicators components
• Score from 0 - 1 • Score from 0 - 1

12. Flow Health – monthly data
Seasonality altered (SFS) 50th percentile in
ref erence period
Low f low season volume High f low season volume 25th percentile in
greatly reduced (LFV) greatly reduced (HFV) ref erence period Taizihe – Liaoyang
Year 1999/2000
800 High disturbance
700 Highest monthly f low Persistently 太子河 - 辽阳 , 人类干扰很
moderately reduced
大
0 )
high (PHF)
3 1 6
600 f rom ref erence (HMF) Persistently low (PLF)
and persistently
500
very low (PVL)
400
Lowest monthly f low
300 greatly reduced
f rom ref erence (LMF)
200
m
M
w
h
n
o
y
(
f
t
l
100
0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

13. Flow Health – monthly data
Seasonality intact (SFS) 50th percentile in
ref erence period
Low f low season volume High f low season 25th percentile in
slightly reduced (LFV) volume OK (HFV) ref erence period
Guijiang – Guilin
Year 2007/2008
1200 Low disturbance
1000
Highest monthly 桂江 - 桂林，干扰
较小
0 )
f low OK (HMF)
3 1 6
Persistently very
800 low OK (PVL) Persistently
high OK (PHF)
600 Persistently low
reduced (PLF)
Lowest monthly
400 f low OK (LMF)
m
M
w
h
n
o
y
200
(
f
t
l
0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

14. Score relative to reference
Deviation from reference range of variation
Large Small Small
V large Moderate V small Very small
Frequency of observations
in reference period
Score = 1
Score = 0 Reference range
of variation
Minimum 25th 75th Maximum
percentile percentile
Low flow season hydrological attribute value
Frequency of observations
in reference period
Minimum 25th 75th Maximum
percentile percentile
High flow season hydrological attribute value

15. Example output
• Score for each year
• Sub-indicators show which parts of flow regime unhealthy
• Sensitive mainly to regulation and also to natural variation
– As for biological indicators

16. Summary
• Australian methods exclusively use modelled data
• Hydrological modelling is wide-spread in Australia
– But mostly in regulated (managed) sections of rivers
• In-house software is used
• The methods compare long-term “scenarios”
– No annual scores
Limited scope to apply in China
• New approach designed for China, uses measured data
• Free software available
• Can apply to most rivers in the world