Osteoporosis market opportunities. Egypt 2010

1. Osteoporosis market
opportunities
Cairo
Prepared by: Walid Saafan

2. Topics
Summary
Market Overview
Medical analysis
Promotional analysis
Cost analysis for leading brands

3. Summary
The Osteoporosis market size:
– Sales: 10.2 Mio US$ in representing 0.4% of the total market GR%
+9.9%, and CAGR 10.7% vs total market GR% of +16.4% and
CAGR +18.3%.
– Units: 559K packs, GR% +10.4% and CAGR +7.4% vs total
market GR% +11.7% and CAGR +9.7%.
Osteoporosis market is derived by Multinational corporations
(Novartis, MSD, Servier, and Sanofi Aventis) represent 85% of the
market.
The osteoporosis is not reimbursed in the MOH and the sales are
driven from the private market (out pocket).
The market is derived by Bisphosphonate class representing 54% of
the total market followed be Calcitonins representing 32%, both
classes represent 86% of the market.
Source: IMS Y09

4. Summary – cont.,
The MKT is consisting of 3 trends
– Bisphosphonate: divided to Alendronate group mainly Fosavance/
Fosamax from MSD with 8 generics, Residronate group mainly
Actonel from Sanofie Aventis with two generic.
– Calcitonin: the oldest trend led by Miacalcic launched in 1986
– Raloxifen: leading the group Evista from Lilly with 4 generics.
The main segment prescribing antiresorptive for osteoporosis are the
ORTH with 76% Rx share and GR of +11%.
Source: IMS Y09

5. Market overview – leading classes
Market segmentation
Source: IMS Y09, values in US$

6. Market overview – leading classes cont.,
Leading corporate per class Leading brands per class
Source: IMS Y09, values in US$

7. Market overview – market development
Total pharma.
+19.5% +19.7% +18.9% +16.4%
Market GR%
Source: IMS Y09, values in K.US$

8. Market overview – Leading corporate performance
Source: IMS Y09, values in US$

9. Market overview – Leading brands performance
Source: IMS Y09, values in US$

10. Medical analysis - Source of RXs
The osteoporosis Rx are mainly generated
from ORTH doctors contributing with 75% of
all antiresorptive Rx.
Other specialties show minor contribution with
a growing potential for the GP segment.
The market is showing low level of stay on
therapy for most of brands with an average of
1.8 Pack/Rx for Miacalcic, 1.6 for Protelos and
2 for Actonel and Fosavance.
Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

11. Medical analysis - Source of RXs
Leading brands per specialty Leading brand source of RXs
Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

12. Promotional analysis - Target specialties
ORTHO is the main target for details
acquiring 68% of the total details.
New shift from ORTHO towards IM in
Y09.
Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

13. Promotional analysis - Leading corp. targeting
Leading corporate per class Corporate target classes
Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

14. Promotional analysis - Share of voice - ORTHO
Novartis has the highest SoV among ORTHO of 25%
(Miacalcic 16% with GR% +41%& ACLASTA +9% with
GR% +22%) with increased focus on IM.
PROTELOS has the highest SoV of 22% with GR% +29%
Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

15. Promotional analysis - Detail SoV analysis
Leading brands per specialty Brand target classes
Source: IMS MAT Q4/09

16. Cost analysis for main brands
Source: IMS, Prices in EGP

17. Thank you

18. Leading brands per class
Sales US$ CAGR GR%
Osteop.MKT. 10,207,855 10.7 9.9
M05B3 BISPHOSPH 5,498,920 9.9 10.6
FOSAVANCE/FOSAMAX 1,884,977 1.9 (0.3)
ACTONEL 1,229,611 -6.9 (11.6)
ACLASTA 1,139,665 --- 72.4
H04A0 CALCITONINS 3,224,716 4.6 7.2
MIACALCIC/PLUS 3,170,595 4.1 10.6
M05B9 CALCIUM REGULAT 1,341,167 88.6 20.3
PROTELOS 1,293,199 107.7 21.0
G03J0 SERMS 109,414 -30 (34.1)

19. Leading specialties – RXs
Y09 Projected RXs
Total Others
GYN, 18,075, (6) , 14,390,
6% 5%
G.P., 39,939,
13%
ORTHO.,
237,080, 76%

20. SOT PSP
Osteoprosis market
MIACALCIC 17 316
PROTELOS 23 124
ACTONEL 26 107
ACLASTA 64 1,860
FOZAMAX/FOSAVANCE 31 100
Monthly Yearly
Treatment treatment
cost cost
Leading brands
MIACALCIC 367 4,405
PROTELOS 269 3,233
ACTONEL 233 2,802
ACLASTA 1,860
FOZAMAX/FOSAVANCE 217 2,607
NB: brand prices calculated based on the weighted average of its SKU’s public
sales price times the units sales

21. Chart Title
450
MIACALCIC
400
PROTELOS
350
ACTONEL
300
Price per month
250
200
150
100
50
-
- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Stay on therapy