Una importante opportunità per incontrare Jorgen Randers, uno degli autori dello storico volume “I limiti dello sviluppo”, che nel 1972 mise per la prima volta in discussione il mito della crescita continua aprendo il dibattito internazionale sullo sviluppo sostenibile.

1. 2052 –
A Global Forecast
for the Next Forty Years
Jorgen Randers
Professor
Center for Climate Strategy
Norwegian Business School BI
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Launch of the Italian translation
J Randers 1 Rome, April 4th, 2013

2. 12 scenarios for
the 21st century
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
J Randers 2

3. Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis
3: Industrial output
5: Nonrenewable resources
1 2 3
1
5
2: Food
output
5
4
1: Population 1 2
3
2
1
5
2 5
3 4 4: Pollution level 3 4
4
0
1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
J Randers 3

4. Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability
5
5: Nonrenewable resources 5
3: Industrial output
3
3
1 2
5
1 2
2: Food 5
output
4
1: Population 1 2
3
1 4: Pollution level
2 4
3 4
0 4
1900 1950 2000 2050 Year 2100
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004
J Randers 4

5. The 3 conclusions of The Limits to Growth
1. The planet is small
(Resource constraints are likely within 100 years if
growth continue)
2. Overshoot is likely
(Current systems of governance are likely to allow
human activity to grow beyond the finite carrying
capacity of the planet)
3. Once in overshoot, physical contraction is
unavoidable
(Either managed or by the forces of nature or the
market)
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
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6. Overshoot in CO2: Emissions = 2xAbsorption
1. Emissions from fossil fuels
+ 2. Emissions from deforestation
- 3. Absorption in oceans
- 4. Absorption in forests
= 5. Accumulating in the atmosphere
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Global Carbon Project, Carbon Budget 2009
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7. For all numerical data
and the forecast model,
consult
the book website
www.2052.info
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
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8. The five regions used in the 2052 forecast
Region Population GDP GDP per person
2010 2010 2010
(billion (trillion (1000
people) $ pr year) $ pr person-year)
US 0,3 13 41
China 1,3 10 7
OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30
BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6
ROW (3) 2,1 8 4
Sum world 6,9 67 10
(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc
(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies
(3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 8

9. World population will peak in 2040
Gpersons % / yr
10 5,0
Population
8 (←scale) 4,0
6 3,0
4 Birth rate 2,0
(scale →)
2 1,0
Death rate
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 1
0 0,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 9

10. World GDP growth will slow down
G$ / yr 10,000$ / person-yr Gp
150 6,0 6.0
120 4,8 4.8
Population
aged 15 to 65
(scale → →)
90 World GDP 3,6 3.6
(←scale)
60 2,4 2.4
Gross labor
30 productivity 1,2 1.2
(scale →)
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 3a
0 0,0 0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product – World 1970 to 2050
Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 10

11. Global consumption will stagnate
% G$ / yr
40 150
World GDP
32
(scale →) 120
Investment
share in GDP
24 (←scale) 90
Consumption
16 (scale →) 60
8 30
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 4
0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption – World 1970 to 2050
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 11

12. Energy use will peak in 2040
G$
Gtoe / yr toe / M$ / yr
20 300 300
World
energy use
16 (←scale) 240 240
Energy intensity
= Energy use
12 per unit of GDP 180 180
(scale →)
8 120 120
World GDP
(scale →→)
4 60 60
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 6
0 0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 5-1: Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 12

13. Fossil fuel use will peak around 2030
Gtoe / yr
6,5
5,2 Coal use
3,9
Oil use
2,6
Gas use
Renewable energy use
1,3
Nuclear use
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 8
0,0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 5-2: Energy Uses – World 1970 to 2052
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 13

14. World CO2 emissions will peak in 2030
GtCO2 / yr tCO2 / toe Gtoe/yr
50 5 25
CO2 emissions
40 Climate intensity (←scale) 4 20
= CO2 per unit
of energy
30 (scale →) 3 15
20 2 10
Energy use
(scale →→)
10 1 5
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 9
0 0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use – World 1970 to 2050.
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 14

15. Temperature will pass +2 degrees C in 2052
ppm deg C m
500 2,5 1.5
400 CO2 in atmosphere 2,0 1.2
(←scale)
Temperature rise
(scale →)
300 1,5 0.9
200 1,0 0.6
Sea level rise
(scale →→)
100 0,5 0.3
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 10
0 0,0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 5-4: Climate Change – World 1970 to 2050
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 15

16. Food will satisfy demand – but not need
Gt / yr Gha t/ha-yr
12,5 2,0 10
10,0 1,6 8
Food production
(←scale)
7,5 Cultivated land 1,2 6
(scale →) Gross yield
(scale →→)
5,0 0,8 4
2,5 0,4 2
g120821 2052 database with slides Graph 11
0,0 0,0 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
J Randers 16

17. Main conclusions from the 2052 forecast
♣ World population and economy
will grow more slowly towards 2052
than most people expect
- but still fast enough to trigger a climate crisis
♣ Consumption will stagnate
because world society will have to spend
ever more on repair and adaptation
♣ Future will resemble Limits Scenario 2:
“Pollution crisis”
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
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18. After-tax disposable income – 1970 to 2050
(in 2005 PPP $ per person-year)
40 000
WORLD
35 000
BRISE
30 000
China
25 000 OECD
less US
20 000 USA
15 000 RoW
Residual
10 000
5 000
0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012
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19. The root problem: Pervasive short-termism
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
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20. What should have been done? - Globally
1. Introduce the 1-child family, first in the rich world –
to further slow population growth
2. Ban fossil fuels, first in the rich world –
to reduce climate gas emissions
3. Build a climate-friendly energy system for and in the
poor world – to help them avoid cheap coal
4. Establish supra-national institutions (e.g. a global
central bank for climate-gas-emission rights) - to
temper short-termism
5. Establish new goals for rich society: Higher
wellbeing in a world without growth
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL
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21. I don’t like what I see!
NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL jorgen.randers@bi.no www.2052.info
J Randers 21