This document provides an overview of the latest developments in the mobility industry from the perspective of Volkswagen Group Research. It discusses the complex challenges facing the industry from changes in society, technology, politics and the environment. It also examines trends in traveler behavior, including travelers becoming older, more hybrid in their travel preferences, and more ecologically aware. The document outlines Volkswagen's approach to strategic planning and developing future innovations, including electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies. It emphasizes the need to think beyond current conceptions of mobility to develop new solutions for sustainable transportation.

1. 20XX
Latest developments in the mobility industry
Road
Wolfgang Müller-Pietralla
Head of Future Affairs
Volkswagen Group Research
23.04.2009

2. Tough environment: More obstacles on the road
Complex and dynamic developments in society, environs, technology and politics.
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3. Moments of awareness: Crisis, accidents, disasters
“When systems fail we become temporarily conscious of the extraordinary force and power of design,
and the effects that it generates. Every accident provides a brief moment of awareness of real life,
what is actually happening, and our dependence on the underlying systems of design.” (Massive Change, Bruce Mau)
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4. Underlying systems
23.04.2009 K-EFZ Quelle: Raskin ert al, 2002 4

5. Back Casting: From the future to the present
Forecast Foresight
Market research Future research Scenarios
&
Innovation Translation Visions
2009
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6. Road mapping as a strategic tool
PICTURE & VISION OF THE FUTURE
General conditions G1 G2
Society/ Environment
P1 P2 P3
Cycle plan
Markets/ Products P4
I1 I2
Innovation management
Innovation/ Features I3 I4
T1 T2 T4 T6
Research Projects
Technologies T3 T5
Investment / Finances
Resources Supply Chain
Job profile
2009 2015 t
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7. Picture of the future
Scenarios: possible, probable, desirable
t
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8. Our approach: World Scenario Check
STEEP FACTORS
Society
Technology
Economy
Ecology
Politics
Analysis of:
220 Future Reports
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9. Drivers of Change: Key Factors from the WSC 2030
1. Classes in society and social structure: increase in inequality
2. Population dynamics: low mortality and birth rates = demographic shift, 9bil. 2050
3. Technological development: information and communication, nano, bio, info, cogno
4. Climate change and biodiversity: unexpected dynamics, irreversible
5. Energy supply: fossil fuels in the mid-term, regenerative in the long-term
6. Availability and price of resources: uncertain and unpredictable
7. Environmental and traffic policies: stringent regulations
8. Urbanisation: progressing, increased need for infrastructure and new concepts
9. Mobility and mobility infrastructure: on the rise, Car2X concepts
10. Information society: web 3.0, anytime, anywhere, anydata
11. Vehicle technology: conventional and alternative drivetrains, low- and zero emission
12. Corporate Social Responsibility: going beyond legal standards, sustainable reporting
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10. In Touch with changing Travelers:
Clear developments already visible, partially linked
Travelers got and are getting…
… older 1 … more hybrid 2 … more digital 3
The share of the over 60 year olds has been Constant rise of the LC flights, as well as Rising share of travelers, which are reading
rising constantly within the last 5 year. changes in travel expenses up on travels online and booking online.
Share of the LCC traffic on Changes in travel
17 % 20% 19 % 2 0 % 2 1% 22% 26% 29% the overall traffic in Europe expenses 39%
35% 37% 33%
223
22% 27%
19%
100 118 15% 15%
4% 9%
79 4%
2001 2007 1996 2000 2006
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2001 2003 2005 2007
60 years and older Travels over 3.000€ ø travels expenses Travels under 500€ Information Booking
… more Asiatic 4 … more individual 5 … more ecologically aware 6
Travelers form Asia are showing highest Decreasing share of packaged tours Ecological aspects have an increasing impact
growth rates: >10% p.a. on purchase decision
19%
10,2 9 8 15%
8 8 33% 13%
7,7 32%
6 2006/ 29% 28% 8%
5 5 2005 20%
4 4
2
2007/
2006 Going less Going less Preferring Generally
by car by plane regional less
World Europe Asia/ America Africa Middle 2004 2005 2006 2007 2020 destinations vacation
Pacific East trips
Source: Arthur D. Little, Statistisches Bundesamt, F.U.R Reiseanalyse/RA 2007, Official Airline Guide (OAG), UNWTO, IPK International, CN, GfK
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11. The „Traveler 2020“ is characterized by high and changing
demands – indications already visible
15 Trends "Traveler 2020"
Relaxation 1 Always Online 4 Body Upgrades 7 Convenience 10 Sustainability 13
Entspannung und Ruhe
Relaxation and Vernetzung 24h, all die - Medical Tourism
Connection rund um Steigende Service-
Growing service Verantwortungs-bewusst
Responsible purchase
– Medizin Tourismus
als Gegenpol zum
calmness as antipole Uhr auf the world. Welt. - Wellness
around der ganzen erwartung vor und
expectations before and getroffene Kaufentschei-
decisions
hektischen Alltag "Kleiner, schneller, – Wellness während der Reise dungen
to stressful daily life „Smaller, faster, - Spiritual Self-Discovery during traveling
besser,… "
better,...“ – Spirituelle
Selbstfindung
Community 2 Cosmo-politics 5 Luxury 8 Learning 11 Virtualization 14
Connection with like-
Vernetzung mit The world is growing
Die Welt wächst zu- Rising demanding-
Steigendes An- Learning anytime and Online experiences,
Überall und immer lernen Erlebnisse in der
minded people
Gleichgesinnten sammen. Relativisation
together. Relativierung attitude, exclusivity,
spruchsverhalten, anywhere virtual reality as
Onlinewelt, Virtual Reality
von Distanzen
of distances Exklusivität, stärkere
stronger differentiation als Substitut für Reisen?
replacement of
Differenzierung traveling?
Extreme Experiences 3 Hybrid-Offers 6 Home-Holidays 9 Individuality 12 Recommendation 15
From Materialismus zum
Vom materialism to Situational,
Situationsabhängig, Decreasing travel-
Abnehmende Customized products,
Maßgeschneiderte Purchase decision
Kaufentscheidung
Aktivismus: "Höher,
activism: „Higher, heterogene Kunden-
heterogeneous Reiseintensität in
intensity in saturated Produkte, individu-elle
individual processes: zunehmend auf user-
increasingly based on
schneller, weiter,… "
faster, wider,...“ anforderungen
customer gesättigten Märkten
markets Prozesse – für
for customer generated-content
user-generated-based
requirements Einzelpersonen &
segments & basierend,
quality reports.
Kundensegmente
individuals Erlebnisberichte
Source: Arthur D. Little
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12. Hybrid Customers with Highly Dynamic Personalities
Bildquelle: Corbis
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13. Traveling - diversified

14. 9 brands, 178 models,
6.3 Million automobils 2008
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15. Product Portfolio SCANIA
Haulage Construction Distribution
Special purpose Network and services
Intercity and coach City and intercity Engines
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16. Volkswagen’s Powertrain- and Fuel Strategy
Our cars use the whole range of available energy sources
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
(Renewable) E-Drive
Electricity Battery
Renewable E-Drive
SunFuel®
Hybrid
DSG®
Natural Gas SynFuel
TSI®
TDI®
Diesel Fuel
Oil Gasoline / CNG
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17. Golf Twindrive: Downsizing and Hybrid Technologies for
maximum efficiency
Starting with plug-in hybrid vehicles and
then building on this to develop purely
electric cars is the right approach.
(Dr. M. Penth, Heidelberg Institut for Energy and Environmental Research)
12,7% 2020
(Source Center for Automotive Research)
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18. Research for the future

19. Cornerstones of Innovation
Essence Customer Timing Blockbusters Code
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20. Driving ideas: Future innovations
Accident-free driving Custom-made cars Bio fuel car
Car2X Mixed realities TwinDrive
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21. THE CONNECTED CAR?
yes, in a Connected World
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22. THE CITY CAR?
no, but a variety of specific car and mobility concepts
Interieur Motives Design Award Interieur Motives Design Award
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23. A question of balance: Engineering of livable cities
Core elements of urban traffic planning scope of duties: OEM
scope of duties: state and city
Public-transport
Good infrastructure for
systems which are Lively centers along
pedestrians and
quicker than the transport corridors
bicyclists
remaining road traffic
Financing of public
Services and Continuous
transport and transport
connections for optimization of vehicle
infrastructure through
seamless mobility technology
different charges
Source: Kenworthy, Jeff; Newman, Peter (2007): Greening Urban Transportation. In: Worldwatch Institute (Hg.): State of the World 2007. Our urban
future. A Worldwatch Institute report on progress toward a sustainable society. Washington: Earthscan, pp. 66–85
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24. THE ACCIDENT FREE CAR?
perceiving better than humans
close-up range radar video camera
ultrasound
rear-
camera distant radar
interior sensors
multibeam
laser
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25. FULLY AUTOMATIC CARS?
first not, but with intelligent co-pilot and butler features
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26. ALTENAUTO?
no, but age-based innovations for silver-agers
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27. THE FULLY ELECTRIC VEHICLE: definitely an alternative!
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28. Challenges Electric Vehicles: lifetime, costs, safety and range
Weight for 100 km in kg Gas Battery
3 kg for 100 km <200 kg for 100 km
Range in Km for 1min refueling Gas Battery
800 km in 1 min. 1 km in 1 min.
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29. From vision to reality: www.volkswagen2028.com
Volkswagen 2028.
Our idea of the
automotive future.
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30. Volkswagen 2028 – „Room“ – When cars and homes converge
A car for the whole family:
Take a minute to consider how much
time you spend in your car – and what
else you might do with that time. We
consider it quite often. Here's our vision Autonomous driving: Mobile devices: wireless
of quality time while on the move. the autopilot communication inside the vehicle
Navigation 2028: Flexible interiors:
your digital companion the car as a natural habitat
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31. Interview with experts – Mobility
”In my study ’After the car‘ I look at a whole variety of innovations
which would produce a different sort of personal vehicle system. It
would be based on battery-fuelled cars, smaller cars, cars built
from lightweight materials, and a replacement of the concept of
ownership by the concept of access.“
“Lots of the processes you have got listed here are exactly the
ones I think could well produce what I call a de-mobilisation of the
world.”
Prof. John Urry
Mobility and Sociology Research
University of Lancaster
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32. “Now that we can do anything, what will we do?”
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33. OUR responsibility is to think BEYOND
“If I’d asked them what they wanted, they would have said
– a faster horse.” Henry Ford
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