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Housing Market Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION  OF REALTORS® Presentation at NAR Midyear Legislative Meetings Washington, D.C.  May 12, 2011
U.S. Annual Existing Home Sales… Ready to Breakout?
Monthly Existing Home Sales Tax Credit Impact
Improving Factors for Higher  Home Sales ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Total U.S. Payroll Jobs (1.3 million in the past 12 months) 6.5 million  below prior peak In thousands
Alaska Payroll Jobs –  Booming
North Dakota Jobs –  Outperforms Alaska
Texas Payroll Jobs –  Fully Recovered
Kansas Payroll Jobs –  No Recovery
Missouri Payroll Jobs –  Barely Registering
Most States follow U.S. Payroll Pattern (Modest Job Recovery) In thousands
Weekly Fresh Unemployment Claims… Not Going under 400,000 In thousands
Financial Asset at $50 trillion…  Full Recovery Source: Federal Reserve
Residential Real Estate Net Worth…  Long way to recover, but not falling Source: Federal Reserve
New Home Price vs. Existing Home Price  30% premium rather than 10-15% normal premium 12 month moving average Existing Home Price New Home Price
CPI Apartment Rent
Home Price vs Rent (index = 100 in 1980)
Qualified Renters who can buy a  Median Priced Home 2005 2010 Median Price $219,000 Median Price $173,100 Mortgage Rate 6% Mortgage Rate 5% Down payment 10% Down payment 10% Monthly Payment $1,180 Monthly Payment $840 Qualifying Income $56,600 Qualifying Income $40,300 How many renters have at least this income? 7,700,000 (21% of renters) How many renters have at least this income? 15,000,000 (39% of renters)
Renter Households In million
Distress Sales:  30% to 40% of  Transactions  Will Remain Significant for Next 2 years
# of Serious Delinquent Mortgages… Mostly Borrowers prior to 2009 (90+ days late or in foreclosure process) In 2010, there were 1.5 million distressed sales… need to wait 2.7 years
One U.S. Dollar gets…
U.S. Home Price after  Currency Conversion
Smart Money Buying? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
REALTORS ® ’ Home Value Expectation: Survey of REALTORS ®  regarding prices in 12 months Increase or Stable Decrease
Real Estate as Inflation Hedge? (single-family home price in blue vs CPI in red) Good inflation hedge in the past before the housing bubble/bust
U.S. Housing Starts Housing Starts in thousands Long-Term Average
Upside Potential Surprise
Average Credit Score for  Loan Origination 15% to 20% Higher Sales Normal 2009 2010 If Fannie  720 761 762 720 Freddie 720 757 758 720 FHA 650 682 698 660
QE2… to keep rates low…  are inconsequential if too strict  underwriting standards Fannie and Freddie Backed Mortgage Loan Performance Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency  Fannie Mae Vintage Cumulative Default Rate after 18 months 2002 3.1% 2003 2.5% 2004 4.6% 2005 4.8% 2006 11.6% 2007 28.7% 2008 12.6% 2009 1.2% Freddie Mac Vintage Cumulative Default Rate after 18 months 2002 2.7% 2003 1.2% 2004 2.0% 2005 1.8% 2006 6.0% 2007 22.3% 2008 13.7% 2009 1.1%
Downside Potential Surprise
Washington Policy Change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Current Savings Rate = 6%  Takes 9 years to save $20,000  based on average $2,200 per year
Economic Hurdles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CPI Inflation and PPI Inflation (% change from one year ago) Prices falling on consumer electronic products :  Smartphone1 = $200  to  Smartphone2 = $200 is computed as falling prices; even though your wallet did not get any relief
# Unemployed (looking but cannot find job)
Adults in the Labor Force (Rest are not looking for job and officially  not included  in  unemployment rate)
Government Spending and  Tax Receipts $ billion
Government Default?
U.S. 10-year Treasury Rate
Consumer Confidence Index (Under 100; incumbents in trouble)
Housing Baseline Outlook ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Presidential Quotes ,[object Object],Franklin Delano Roosevelt ,[object Object],Ronald Reagan

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Residential Housing Market Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun