Water quality

Water in Agriculture
Proceedings of a CARDI International Conference on Research on
Water in Agricultural Production in Asia for the 21st Century
Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 25–28 November 2003

Editors: Vang Seng, Eric Craswell, Shu Fukai and Ken Fischer

Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research
Canberra 2004

Water in agriculture
edited by Vang Seng, Eric Craswell, Shu Fukai and Ken Fischer
ACIAR Proceedings No. 116e
(printed version published in 2004)

The Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) was established
in June 1982 by an Act of the Australian Parliament. Its mandate is to help identify agri-
cultural problems in developing countries and to commission collaborative research
between Australia and developing country researchers in fields where Australia has a
special research competence.

Where trade names are used this constitutes neither endorsement of nor discrimination
against any product by the Centre.

ACIAR PROCEEDINGS
This series of publications includes the full proceedings of research
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© Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, GPO Box 1571,
Canberra, ACT 2601.

Veng, S., Craswell, E., Fukai, S. and Fischer, K., ed., 2004. Water in agriculture. ACIAR
Proceedings No. 116, 239p.

ISBN 1 86320 426 1 (print)
1 86320 427 X (online)

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Foreword
WATER makes a significant contribution to food security as it directly
affects agricultural productivity.
Due to the significant growth in agricultural productivity over recent
decades, the irrigated areas that comprise 17 per cent of agricultural
lands produce nearly 40 per cent of food and agricultural commodities.
The water used for irrigation in developing countries makes up over 80
per cent of fresh water use.
High risks of flood and/or drought make rain-fed systems difficult
environments in which to increase crop productivity.
The extent to which agricultural production can be increased to
meet food demands is limited by decreasing water availability and
growing competition for water from the industrial and urban sectors.
In arid and semi-arid regions, water resources are fully exploited.
Declining quality of water and soil resources has created new threats to
food supplies. The great challenge in the 21st century will be to
increase food production with limited water and land resources in both
rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.
ACIAR supports a number of projects which have an emphasis on
improving agricultural productivity and sustainability, particularly in
Southeast Asia. The host country of this conference provides a good
example. One of our projects focuses on Cambodia, where the most
important crop is rice grown mostly under rain-fed conditions. ACIAR
has made a commitment to improve production from the limited and
unreliable rainfall by improving planting methods, direct seeding and
the development of suitable rice cultivars.
We are pleased to publish these proceedings and hope that the book
will be a valuable resource for researchers with an interest in the many
aspects of water use in agricultural production.

Peter Core
Director
Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research

3

Contents

Foreword 3

Preface 7

Challenges to agricultural production in Asia in the 21st Century 9
Per Pinstrup-Andersen

Sustainable agriculture and efficient water use in Monsoon Asia 22
Kunio Takase

The economics of rice double-cropping with supplementary irrigation in
the rainfed lowlands of Cambodia: a survey in two provinces 32
S. Chea, R.A. Cramb, and S. Fukai

Developing sustainable land and water management for the Aral Sea Basin
through an interdisciplinary approach 45
Christopher Martius, John Lamers, Peter Wehrheim,
Anja Schoeller-Schletter, Ruzimbay Eshchanov, Alexander Tupitsa,
Asia Khamzina, Akmal Akramkhanov and Paul L.G. Vlek

Household-level irrigation for efficient water use and poverty alleviation 61
Jack Keller and Michael Roberts

The effect of water availability on rice-based double cropping in rainfed
lowlands in Cambodia 72
C. Phaloeun, J. Basnayake, C. Kim Ngoy, S. Fukai and M. Sarom

Mekong River water: will river flows meet future agriculture needs in the
Lower Mekong Basin? 86
H. Nesbitt, R. Johnston and Mak Solieng

Land and water resources 105
Benjavan Rerkasem

Premises and realities of agricultural benefits from large dams 119
K.B. Esser

5

Using GIS technology to develop crop water availability maps for Lao PDR 124
Thavone Inthavong, S.P. Kam, J. Basnayake, S. Fukai, B. Linquist and
Monthathip Chanphengsay

Roles of floods for agricultural production in and around Tonle Sap Lake 136
Takao Masumoto, Katsuyuki Shimizu and Pham Thanh Hai

Enhancing the agronomic productivity of degraded soils in North-east
Thailand through clay-based interventions 147
A.D. Noble, S. Ruaysoongnern, F.W.T. Penning de Vries
C. Hartmann and M.J. Webb

Rainfed lowland rice-growing soils of Cambodia, Laos, and North-east
Thailand. 161
R.W. Bell and V. Seng

The development of tube-well irrigation systems in Cambodia 174
By Joseph F. Rickman and Poa Sinath

Improved crop production under water constraints. 182
Shu Fukai and Suan Pheng Kam

Improving rice productivity under water constraints in the Mekong Delta,
Vietnam 196
Bui Chi Buu and Nguyen Thi Lang

Drought response index for identifying drought resistant genotypes for
rainfed lowland rice in Cambodia 203
Makara Ouk, S. Fukai, K.S. Fischer, J. Basnayake, M. Cooper
and H. Nesbitt.

Progress in drought avoidance of rainfed lowland rice 215
L.J. Wade, B.K. Samson, J. Siopongco, J. Egdane, A. Ismail, J. Bennett,
H. Salekdeh, B. Ghareyazie, C.G. McLaren, A. Kamoshita, K. Yano,
A. Yamauchi

Synthesis 224
Per Pinstrup-Andersen

Increasing productivity through genetic improvement for tolerance to drought
and excess-moisture stress in maize (Zea mays L.) 227
G. Srinivasan, Pervez H. Zaidi, N.N. Singh and Ciro Sanchez

6

Preface

THE AVAILABILITY of water and water quality are major concerns for
everyone. Water plays a very important role in all parts of life and at all
stages of crop growth and plant development. Generally, water is
regarded as life—no water, no life.
Agriculture is the largest consumer of water. With increases in popu-
lation, agricultural production also increases, which consequently
leads to a significant increase in the quantity of water to be used, both
for crop production and for urbanisation. Hence, the main question for
us now is how to increase food production with limited water and land
resources. The challenge becomes even more severe under irrigated
conditions, where water availability is decreasing and competition for
water is increasing between agriculture and industry. In these circum-
stances, as a result of increased water use, the incursion of saltwater
from the sea or from subsurface layers to cultivated areas is alarming.
The International Conference ‘Research on Water in Agricultural
Production in Asia for the 21st Century’, which was held at the Cam-
bodian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI) in
Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 25–28 November 2003, provided an impor-
tant forum for researchers from around the world to discuss the issues
and plan effective measures for the future. The themes: (i) Agricultural
Systems and Efficient Water Use; (ii) Water and Land Resources; and
(iii) Improving Agricultural Productivity under Water Constraints with
Emphasis on Agricultural Production in Asia, were deliberately cho-
sen to reflect the problems we are facing.
I want to congratulate the Conference Organising Committee
chaired by Dr Seng Vang, and his team, Mr Hun Yadana, Mr Ty
Channa, Ms. Sakhan Sophany, Mr Chea Marong, Dr Eric Craswell
(CARDI-Assistant Project), Mr Mike Clark (CARDI-Assistant
Project), Prof. Shu Fukai (University of Queensland, Australia), and
Prof. Ken Fischer (University of Queensland, Australia) for the suc-
cess of this conference. Appreciation also goes to all those who partic-
ipated in the conference and to all donors for making it possible.

7

It is hoped that these proceedings will provide valuable information
to researchers and anyone else who takes an interest in this important
subject.

Dr Men Sarom

Director, Cambodian Agricultural Research
and Development Institute (CARDI)

8

Challenges to agricultural production in
Asia in the 21st Century

Per Pinstrup-Andersen1

DURING the past 50 years, Asia has made tremendous Asia, 88% of pregnant women suffer from anaemia,
progress in food security and agricultural develop- usually as a result of insufficient dietary iron.
ment. Nations with large populations that once expe- Given that the centre of gravity of regional poverty
rienced periodic famine, such as China and India, are and food insecurity remains rural, agriculture will con-
now virtually self-sufficient in food production. tinue to play a critical role as the region pursues sus-
Community-based nutrition programs in Indonesia tainable food security for all. It is particularly
and Thailand are frequently presented as models for important that strategies for future agricultural growth
developing countries. No longer does one hear the focus on equity, as well as redressing past environ-
phrase ‘basket case’ when Bangladesh or India are mental degradation that has often occurred in well
mentioned. The achievement of peace in Cambodia endowed and irrigated areas, while recognising that
and East Timor has greatly improved the prospects environmentally friendly intensification of agriculture
for overcoming hunger. can offer sustainable livelihoods to the many poor
Asia has also made tremendous progress in agricul- people who live in less favoured rural areas. Public
tural development. Cereal production more than policies must strike an appropriate balance among
doubled during the past 30 years boosting calorie agricultural, urban, and non-farm rural investments,
availability per person by 24% even as the region’s and between well endowed and less favoured areas.
population grew by a billion people. Virtually all of the Research and technology along with investments in
increase in production resulted from yield gains rather rural infrastructure will play a major role in successful
than expansion of cultivated area. Increased agricul- rural development and poverty eradication.
tural productivity and subsequent rapid industrial
growth in many countries of the region, along with a
rapid expansion of the non-farm rural economy, con- Current food security and
tributed to almost a tripling of per capita incomes. nutrition situation
While three of every five Asians lived in poverty some
30 years ago, less than a third do so today. Nearly two-thirds of the 800 million people in the
However, poverty remains higher in rural Asia world who suffer from hunger and food insecurity live
than in the cities with nearly 700 million rural people in Asia. The more than 500 million Asians affected
still considered poor with low levels of health, edu- account for about 17% of all Asian residents, down
cation, and general well being. More than half a from 21% about 10 years ago. The number of food-
billion Asians are chronically undernourished and insecure Asians has been dropping dramatically
child malnutrition is widespread in parts of Asia, during the past 30 years, a trend that is expected to
especially in South Asia. Famine is severe in North continue during the next 10 years and beyond (Figure
Korea and has been for about a decade. In South 1). The prevalence of food insecurity is higher in
South Asia than in the rest of the region, accounting
1 International Food Policy Research Institute for more than 20% of the South Asian population com-
2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002, USA pared to about 10% in East Asia. FAO predicts that by
Email: P.Pinstrup-Andersen@cgiar.org year 2030, only 6% of the South Asian population and

9

4% of the East Asian population will be food insecure. from malnutrition in the following nine Asian coun-
It is projected that there will be very little food insecu- tries: Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Laos,
rity left in South-east Asia by 2030 (Figure 2). Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. Malnour-
Malnutrition among pre-school children is of par- ished children who make it to their fifth birthday
ticular concern. The World Health Organization esti- often suffer stunted physical and mental develop-
mates that it is a factor in about half of all deaths of ment and are at heightened risk of infection. As
children under the age of five in developing coun- adults, they are likely to be less productive workers.
tries. Every year, nearly three million children die As shown in Figure 3, there are more than 150
million malnourished preschool children in the
world. More than 70% of them are found in Asia with
1200 South Asia accounting for more than half of the
world’s malnourished preschool children (Figures 4
1000 958 and 5). At 44% of the South Asian population, the
incidence of malnutrition in that region is higher than
800 778 it is in any other developing region. Fortunately, both
680 the incidence of child malnutrition and the number of
Millions

600 malnourished children have been declining in Asia,
in contrast to Sub-Saharan Africa where the number
400 is increasing.
In addition to calorie and protein deficiencies,
micronutrient deficiencies are an important nutrition
200
problem in Asia. In South and South-east Asia, 76%
of pregnant women and 63% of preschool children
0
1970 1998 2010 suffer from iron deficiency anaemia (Figure 6).
Around 50% of the world’s anaemic women live in
South Asia South Asia. Their risk of maternal mortality is 23%
East/SE Asia higher than that of non-anaemic mothers. Their
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
200
West Asia and North Africa
Source: FAO (2000, 2001) 166

Figure 1. Number of food-insecure people 1970, 150
1998, 2010. 132
Millions

30 100
1990–92
25 1997–99
2015 50
20
2030
Percent

15
0
1997 2020
10
South Asia
5 Sub-Saharan Africa
East/SE Asia
0 West Asia and North Africa
Latin America
East Asia South-east Asia South Asia
Source: FAO Source: Pinstrup-Andersen, Pandya-Lorch, and Rosegrant (1999).

Figure 2. Percent of population that are food Figure 3. Number of malnourished children 1997 and
insecure. 2020.

10

babies are more likely to be premature, have low such as China, where consumption of fat and sugar has
birth weights, and die as newborns. The incidence of increased rapidly (Figure 7). Overweight and obesity
anaemia is also high among South Asian infants and leads to increasing risk of diabetes, hypertension, and
children, who, as a result, face impaired health and heart diseases. Recent research indicates that by year
development and limited learning capability. Other 2025, almost 40% of the Chinese population will be
widespread micronutrient deficiencies include overweight or obese—an increase from about 10% in
vitamin A, zinc, and iodine ones. 1995 (Table 1). As shown in Figure 8, cardiovascular
Overweight and obesity are gradually becoming disease, diabetes, and cancer are expected to account
serious nutrition problems in parts of Asia, particularly for a rapidly increasing share of all deaths in China and
in countries experiencing rapid economic growth, India by 2020.

1000 60

50 1997
800
40 2020

Percent
600 1997
Million

30
2020
400 20

10
200
0
South Asia India South-east China
0
South Asia South-east China Asia
and East Asia Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2000
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2000 Figure 5. Malnourished children as a percentage of
Figure 4. Number of malnourished children by total children under five years, by region,
region, 1997 and 2020. 1997 and 2020.

100 100

Preschool children Pregnant women
80 76 80

63
60 55 60
Percent

Percent

50
46
42 40
40 40
33
22 24
21
20 18 20

0 0
South/SE
Asia
Eastern
Mediterranean

Africa

Europe

Western
Pacific

Americas

Europe

Americas

Western
Pacific
Africa

Eastern
Mediterranean
South/SE
Asia

Source: UN-SCN/ACC (1999)

Figure 6. Prevalence of anaemia in preschool children and pregnant women by region, 1999.

11

40
Men Women

Percent of population
30

20

10

0
1989 1997 2020 1989 1997 2020
projection projection
Source: Gillespie and Haddad, “Attacking the Double Burden of Malnutrition In Asia,”
IFPRI, Washington, DC (2000).

Figure 7. Prevalence of overweight in China.
Death rates per 100 000 persons

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1990 2020 1990 2020
People’s Republic of China India

Cardiovascular diseases Other noncommunicable diseases
Diabetes Infections and parasitic diseases
Cancers All others (injuries, maternal and perinatal conditions)
Source: Asian Development Bank Nutrition and Development Series (2001).

Figure 8. Actual (1990) and projected deaths (2020) by cause in the PRC
and India.

Table 1. Overweight and obesity in China 1995 and projected for
2025a.

Number % Increase % of Total
(million) population
1995 2025 1995 2025
Men 48 286 496 8 37
Women 71 309 335 12 40
Total 119 595 400 10 39
a Projected on the basis of one-half of the rate of increase during the period 1989–97.
Source: Estimated on the basis of Popkins, Horon, and Kim (2001).

12

Poverty is also widespread in large parts of Asia. Food demand and consumption
Close to one billion Asians lived on the equivalent of
less than one US dollar per day in 1990, a number that Forecasts in the 1950s and 1960s that population
has decreased to fewer than 800 million today. The growth would outstrip food supplies in Asia fortu-
Millennium Development Goal calls for a 50% nately did not materialise. On the contrary, during the
reduction in the per cent of the population that falls past 30 years, cereal production doubled in South
into poverty. This goal will easily be achieved by Asia and increased by about 120% in East and South-
Asia in general and by each of the sub-regions as east Asia. The cultivated area increased by only 4%
well, although some countries may fall short (Figure and the green revolution technology accounted for
9). A somewhat more difficult goal would be to most of the production gain. Although population
reduce the number of poor people by half, relative to growth rates in the region are considerably below 2%
1990. Again, Asia as a whole is likely to achieve this per year, the region will still experience large
goal although South Asia may fall short (Figure 10).
increases in the demand for food during the next 20–
30 years, partly due to population growth and partly
to income increases.
As shown in Figure 11, the rural population growth
50
rate is expected to reach zero within the next five to
1990
10 years. Growth in the urban population will con-
40 One half of 1990
tinue to follow an almost straight-line trend. Per
2015 projection
capita income growth during the 1990s was high in
30
Percent

several Asian countries, notably China, Vietnam, and
Myanmar, while they were low in Nepal, Indonesia,
20
Cambodia, Pakistan, and the Philippines (Figure 12).
Future growth in incomes is expected to be relatively
10
high at about 5.5% for Asia. China, Cambodia,
Vietnam, and India are expected to experience partic-
0
ularly high economic growth between now and 2020
East Asia China South Asia
(excluding China) (Figure 13). Past income growth, urbanisation, and
Source: Global Economic Prospects & Developing Countries,
changing lifestyles have resulted in dramatic dietary
World Bank (2000). changes in Asia (Table 2). In middle income Asian
Figure 9. Percent of people below $1/day. countries the dietary change has been towards rapid
increases in the consumption of dairy products, meat,
fish, fruit, vegetables, and refined sugar. Somewhat
600 similar dietary changes have taken place in low
1990 income Asian countries although the magnitude is
500 One half of 1990 much less. The net result of these dietary changes is
2015 projection a rapid increase in the consumption of calorie-rich
400
food containing high levels of fats and sugar with the
Million

300 likely effect of increasing overweight, obesity, and
related chronic diseases. The dietary changes have
200 been particularly dramatic in East Asia as shown in
Figure 14.
100

0 Agricultural production
East Asia China South Asia
(excluding China) Cereal yields continue to increase in Asia but at a
Source: Global Economic Prospects & Developing Countries, lower rate than during the 1970s and 1980s. During
World Bank (2000).
the 1990s, cereal yields increased by 13% in Asia as
Figure 10. Number of people below $1/day.
a whole, with large variations among countries. Thus,

13

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0
Urban population
0.5 Rural population

0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: UN Population Division (2001).

Figure 11. Urban and rural populations of Asia.

10
9 8.8
8
7
6 5.7
6
Percent

5 4.7
4 3.9 3.9 3.6
4 3.1 3
3 2.4 2.3 2.2
2 1.2 1
1
0
China

Vietnam

Myanmar

Korea

India

Malaysia

Laos

Sri Lanka

Bangladesh

Thailand

Nepal

Indonesia

Cambodia

Pakistan

Philippines

Source: UNDP, Human Development Report (2003).

Figure 12. GDP per capita annual growth rate (%), 1990–2000.

7
6 6 6 5.8 5.8 5.7
5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2
5 5 4.9 4.8
5 4.5 4.5 4.5
4
Percent

4 3.5
2.9
3
2
1
0
Cambodia
China
India
Vietnam
East Asia
Asia
South Asia
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
South Korea
Southeast Asia
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Other South Asia
Pakistan
Myanmar
Other East Asia
World

Source: IFPRI-IMPACT (2000).

Figure 13. Projected GDP growth rates, 1997–2020.

14

Cereals for food
South Asia
Roots and tubers
East Asia
Sugar
Pulses
Vegetable oil and oilseeds
Meat
Dairy products
Total calories

–50 –25 0 25 50 75 100 125 150
Percent
Figure 14. Projected percentage change in per capita consumption of
selected foods in South and East Asia.

Table 2. Consumption of selected foods in middle- Table 3. Average cereal crop yields.
and low-income Asian countries in 1962 and
1996 (kg per capita). Country Average cereal crop yields
kg per hectare Change since
Middle-income Low-income
(1999–2001) 1989–91 (%)
1962 1996 1962 1996 1 Korea, Republic of 6,500 10
Cereals and starchy 155 165 159 193 2 China 4,869 16
roots
3 Vietnam 4,075 33
Dairy products and 18 49 39 56
4 Indonesia 3,860 1
eggs
5 Bangladesh 3,322 31
Meat 13 31 5 7
6 Sri Lanka 3,270 12
Fish 18 31 4 5
7 Myanmar 3,082 13
Fruits and 129 142 59 80
vegetables 8 Malaysia 3,075 13
Added sugar 12 32 16 20 9 Laos 2,978 33
Source: Popkins, Horon, and Kim (2001). 10 Thailand 2,659 24
11 Philippines 2,571 27
yield increases in Cambodia during the 10-year 12 India 2,321 21
period were 43% compared to a 1% increase in Indo- 13 Pakistan 2,305 29
nesia (Table 3). The irrigated area in Asia is 14 Nepal 2,089 11
increasing but more slowly as shown in Figure 15. 15 Cambodia 2,050 43
During the 30-year period, 1965–95, the irrigated
Asia (excl. 3,678 13
cereal area in Asia increased by 58%. It is projected Middle East)
that it will increase by only 10.5% during the 30-year
World 3,096 15
period, 1995–2025. The competition for water uses
Source: World Resources Institute, 2002, in collaboration with the
other than irrigation is increasing rapidly in Asia and United Nations Development Program, the United Nations
it is projected that the percentage of the water used Environment Program, and the World Bank.
for irrigation will decrease from 87% in 1995 to 77%
in 2025, leaving the total consumption of water for
irrigation roughly constant during that 30-year One of the main reasons for the rapid yield increases
in Asia is the adoption of improved crop varieties
period. The projected increase in total water con-
(Figure 16). About 90% of the area grown with pota-
sumption of 14% during the 30-year period will
toes and wheat use improved varieties. For rice, maize,
occur in non-irrigation for which water consumption
soybean, and millet, the rate is around 70%.
is expected to double during that period.

15

As shown in Figures 17–19, the annual growth in 1960s (Figure 20). East Asia will account for more
cereal demand and production has decreased signifi- than two-thirds of the net cereal imports into Asia by
cantly during the past 30 years, a trend that is expected 2020 (Table 4). As shown in Figures 21 and 22, maize
to continue during the next 20 years. Another past prices are expected to stay constant in real terms over
trend expected to continue is a faster growth in the next 20–25 years while most other food prices are
demand than in production leading to increasing net expected to decrease.
imports of cereals (Table 4). It is expected that Asia’s Fish provides a different picture than that for most
net cereal imports will reach close to 100 million tons other food commodities in Asia. Fish production has
by 2030, up from less than 20 million tons during the increased rapidly during the past 30 years, particu-
larly in China where the annual growth in fish pro-
200 60 duction between 1985 and 1997 was 15.6% (Figure
50 23). The growth in fish production in Asia is
Million hectares

150
40 expected to continue although more slowly (Table 5).
100 30 Percent Production increases that exceed the increase in
20 demand in the region have resulted in a switch from
50
10 the region being a net importer of fish to a net
0 0 exporter, a trend that is projected to continue in the
1965

1995

2025

% change
1965–95

% change
1995–2025

future (Table 6 and Figure 24). Contrary to most
other food commodities, fish prices are expected to
increase significantly during the next 15–20 years
Figure 15. Irrigated cereal area in Asia, 1965, 1995, (Figure 25).
and projected for 2025.
4 Cereal demand
Cereal production
90
1970 1990
80 3
1980 1998
Percentage

70
60 2
50
40
30 1
20
10 0
0 1967–82 1982–90 1990–97 1993–2020
Wheat Rice Maize Potatoes
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT (for 1967–1997 data)
Source: Evenson and Gollin, Eds. (2003). PNAS Online (for 1993–2020 data)

Figure 16. Percent of area planted to improve varieties Figure 18. Annual growth rate (%) in cereal demand
in Asia. and production in South-east Asia.

5 4
Cereal demand
Cereal demand Cereal production
4 3
Cereal production
Percentage
Percentage

3
2
2
1
1

0 0
1967–82 1982–90 1990–97 1993–2020 1967–82 1982–90 1990–97 1993–2020
PNAS Online (for 1993–2020 data)
PNAS Online (for 1993–2020 data)

Figure 17. Annual growth rate (%) in cereal demand Figure 19. Annual growth rate (%) in cereal demand
and production in East Asia. and production in south Asia

16

Table 4. Net cereal import in Asia, 1967–2020 (million tons).

1967 1982 1990 1997 2020
South Asia 12 3 3 3 21
South-east Asia 0 0 0 7 9
East Asia 6 30 26 21 67
Total 18 29 30 31 97
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, (2002).

100
80
Million tons

60
40
20
0
1964–66 1974–76 1984–86 1997–98 2015 2030
Source: FAO (2003).

Figure 20. Asian net cereal imports.

Rice
Wheat
1995
Maize
2025
Other coarse grains
Soybeans
Potatoes
Sweet potatoes
Other roots and tubers
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
$/mt
Source: Rosegrant, Cai, and Cline (2002).

Figure 21. World food prices, 1995 and projected for 2025 ($/t).

All meat
1993
Poultry meat 2020

Sheep and goat

Pigmeat

Beef

0 500 1000 1500 2000
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, (2001).
$/mt

Figure 22. Real world market prices of selected commodities, 1993
and projected for 2020 ($/t).

17

Table 5. Production of food fish from aquaculture, 1973–2020.

Region Total production (million tons) Annual growth rate (%)
Actual Projected Actual Projected
1973 1985 1997 2020 1985–97 1997–2020
China 1 3.4 19.5 35.1 15.6 2.6
South-east Asia 0.4 0.9 2.3 5.1 7.6 3.6
India 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.3 9.6 3.7
Other South Asia 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 10.5 4.0
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT model (Rosegrant et al. 2001)

Table 6. Total net exports of food fish, 1973–97 and
2020.
40
Region Total net exports (thousand metric tons)
35 Actual Projected
1973
30 1985 1973 1985 1997 2020
25 1997 China –108 –284 181 543
Million tons

2020 South-east Asia –324 –145 1,131 482
20
India –49 –109 122 426
15
Other South Asia 26 –97 84 –157
10
All Asia –455 –635 1,518 1,294
5 Source: Delgado et al. (2003).
0
China India
Source: IFPRI-IMPACT model (2002), FAO (2002).

Figure 23. Production of food fish from aquaculture, Challenges to Asian agriculture
1973–2020.
A number of challenges are facing Asian agriculture.
They include accelerated globalisation, and further
trade liberalisation, sweeping technological changes,
degradation of natural resources and increasing water
scarcity, emerging and re-emerging health and nutri-
2000 tion crises, rapid urbanisation, and changing struc-
ture of farming and agribusiness.
1500
Thousand metric tons

1000 Accelerated globalisation including trade
liberalisation
500
The failure of the WTO meeting in Cancun to move
0 towards more trade liberalisation of agricultural and
–500 food commodities was a major blow to the world
1973 1985 1997 2020 community in general and to developing countries in
–1000 particular. Failure by the OECD countries to reduce
Source: Delgado, et al., (2003).
trade-distorting behaviour is severely harming devel-
oping-country agriculture and the rural as well as
Figure 24. Total Asian net exports of food fish, urban poor in those countries. Harmful policies
1973–97 and 2020. include agricultural subsidies linked to quantity pro-
duced, dumping of surplus production on developing

18

country markets, and offering subsidised food com- likely to increase by between two and three dollars.
modities on the international market at prices signifi- The most powerful illustration of this multiplier is
cantly below production costs. found in China beginning in the late 1970s. These
According to Oxfam estimates, the world market multipliers are important not only in the above men-
prices for maize are only 80% of the production cost tioned countries where more than one-third of the
in the US from where wheat is sold on the interna- gross national product comes from agriculture but
tional market at roughly half the production costs. also in countries such as Pakistan, India, Bangladesh,
Sugar prices on the international market are only Vietnam and Sri Lanka where roughly one-quarter of
about one-fifth of the EU production costs and the the national income is from agriculture. The key to
cotton market is badly affected by US subsidies. It is agricultural growth in Asian countries is productivity
virtually impossible for developing country farmers increases from land, labour, and water. Producing
to compete in the international market at those highly more per unit of each of these three scarce resources
subsidised prices. Furthermore, except for special is of critical importance not only for agricultural
and preferential treatments, it is virtually impossible growth but for general economic growth and poverty
for developing countries to enter the OECD markets alleviation. Agricultural growth is also needed to
with commodities such as sugar, rice, meat, cotton, meet future food demands and to help protect natural
dairy products and groundnuts because of extremely resources.
high import tariffs. There are large differences
between the trade positions of the various countries 20 18
in Asia, with some, such as Vietnam and Thailand, 18
being major exporters of rice and others net food 16 15
importers. Others, such as South Korea and Japan, 14
12
Percent

maintain high levels of trade-distorting protection of
their agriculture. In spite of these differences, I 10
8
believe the region would benefit greatly from reduc- 6
6
tions in the trade-distorting OECD policies. The chal- 4
lenge to Asian agriculture is to develop the 2
infrastructure, technology, and institutions that are 0
needed to support not only increasing productivity Low value High value Fishmeal
food fish finifish
but also the ability to change the production patterns
and commodity portfolio in response to relative price
Figure 25. Projected real price change of fisheries
changes on the international market. Ability to meet commodities, 1997–2000 (%).
existing and emerging non-tariff barriers in OECD
and Asian countries, such as increasing quality stand-
Although an increasing share of the agricultural
ards and new food safety demands, is also a major
research that is needed to generate the productivity
challenge.
increases needed will come from the private sector,
there is an urgent need for accelerated public invest-
Sweeping technological changes
ment in the kind of agricultural research that is
Achieving equitable and sustainable rural growth needed to produce the public goods type technology
will be an important challenge for the 21st Century. needed by small farmers in Asia. Benefits to society
Agriculture will play a prominent role, particularly in from such research generally exceed 20% per year
countries where it provides a large percentage of the compared to long-run real interest rates of 3–5% for
national incomes, such as Myanmar, Laos, Nepal and government borrowing. Modern biotechnology can
Cambodia. The importance of agriculture as the contribute to the development of the technology
driver of economic growth and poverty alleviation is needed for Asian agriculture. When used in conjunc-
due not only to its large share of national incomes and tion with traditional agricultural research methods,
employment but also to the large multiplier effect biotechnology can be a powerful tool to increase
associated with agricultural growth. Studies in Asia agricultural productivity and reduce poverty. It
have shown that for every dollar of additional agri- should be used where appropriate to develop solu-
cultural income, incomes in society as a whole are tions for problems faced by small-scale farmers.

19

A number of different modern biotechnology parts of Asia. Water is poorly distributed across
methods are being used in Asia including marker- countries as well as within countries and between
assisted breeding and tissue culture. Genetic engi- seasons. As shown earlier in this paper, the demand
neering is being applied in only a few countries. for water other than for irrigation will grow rapidly in
Among Asian countries, only China and India have a Asia. The costs of developing new sources of water
significant area planted to genetically modified are high and rising and non-traditional sources such
crops. In China, more than 100 genetically modified as desalination, reuse of waste water, and water har-
crop varieties have been authorised for release while vesting are unlikely to add much to Asian water
commercial production of genetically modified crops availability in the near future, although they may be
in India is limited to Bt cotton. Thailand and the Phil- important in some local or regional ecosystems. The
ippines have modest research efforts in progress rapidly growing domestic and industrial demand for
although, except for Bt maize in the Philippines, no water will have to be met with reduced use in the agri-
GM technology has been approved for commercial cultural sector. Reforming policies that are contrib-
production. In addition to the new technological uting to wasteful use of water offers considerable
advances in molecular biology, Asian agriculture opportunity to save water, improve efficiency in
could benefit greatly from increased use of new water use, and boost crop output per unit of water.
information and communications technology, partic- Policy reforms needed include establishing secure
ularly to improve sustainability in production and to water rights of users, decentralising and privatising
obtain better market information. water management functions, and setting incentives
for water conservation—including markets in trade-
Degradation of natural resources and able water rights, pricing reform, and reduction in
increasing water scarcity subsidies.
Degradation of natural resources is rampant in
many resource-poor areas of developing countries, Emerging and re-emerging health and
particularly those with fragile soils, irregular rainfall, nutrition crises
a relatively high population concentration, and stag-
The devastating effects of HIV/AIDS on the well-
nant productivity in agriculture. Natural resource
being of millions of people and the grim prospects for
degradation is also occurring in agricultural areas of
its rapid expansion in parts of Asia have serious
Asia that have been exposed to misuse of modern
farming inputs. While natural resource degradation is implications for future agricultural development and
often a consequence of poverty, it also contributes to food security. While HIV/AIDS has historically been
poverty. Such a downward spiral is found in many viewed as an African problem, it is spreading rapidly
parts of Asia where low income people reside. Invest- in many parts of Asia. In those African countries such
ments in rural infrastructure and institutions as well as Uganda where governments recognised the
as appropriate policies and technologies are needed increasing prevalence of HIV/AIDS and put in place
to identify win–win situations where productivity effective interventions, the spread of AIDS has been
can be increased without doing damage to natural brought under control. In other countries such as
resources. Such win–win scenarios are plentiful and South Africa, where the government is more hesitant
there is no reason to believe that productivity to recognise the importance of the problem, it is out
increases can only be obtained at the expense of of control. The lesson for Asia is to pursue transpar-
natural resources. In fact, much of the natural ency, foresight, and appropriate interventions instead
resource degradation that occurs in Asia is a result of of failing to recognise the problem until it is out of
low productivity and resulting unsustainable survival control. Preparing for the impact of HIV/AIDS on the
behaviour coupled with government failure to invest agricultural and rural labour force and on health care
in the so-called ‘low potential’ areas where a large expenditures would be an appropriate action.
share of the world’s poor people live. A number of other health problems including
Unless properly managed, fresh water may well chronic diseases resulting from overweight and
emerge as the most important constraint to food pro- obesity may play an important role in future agricul-
duction in an increasing number of areas including tural development and food security in the region.

20

Rapid urbanisation those needed in Laos and Cambodia. Therefore, the
challenges I have discussed above may be more rel-
As already discussed, while the rural population of evant to some countries than others. Similarly, policy
Asia is expected to reach a growth rate of zero within priorities will vary widely. However, at the most
the next five to 10 years, the Asian urban population general level, I believe that six policy areas should be
will continue to increase at significant rates. The considered by most Asian countries to further accel-
rapid increases in urbanisation will mean new chal- erate economic growth, reduce poverty and hunger,
lenges to the Asian agricultural sector partly because and achieve sustainable management of natural
of the new demands on transportation, processing, resources. These policy areas are, in my opinion, the
storage, and other marketing activities and partly following:
because of the above mentioned dietary changes that 1. Investment in human resources through primary
tend to follow urbanisation. Policies will be needed education, primary health care, and access to clean
for improved infrastructure, markets, and institutions water, with emphasis on neglected rural areas.
to meet the rapidly increasing food demand from 2. Improving access to productive resources and
urban centres. employment for the rural as well as the urban poor.
3. Policies to promote pro-poor technological change
Changing structure of farming of in agriculture as already discussed.
agribusiness 4. Policies and institutions that would facilitate the
capture of benefits and reduce the risks associated
Rapidly changing structure of farming and agri- with globalisation including trade liberalisation.
business pose a serious challenge to Asian agricul- 5. Investments in rural markets and rural
ture. Partly in response to increasing globalisation infrastructure.
and partly because of the stagnation and expected 6. Further policy guidance to improve the rural
decrease in the rural population, the small farms capital and labour markets.
typical of many of the Asian countries are likely to be Asia has made tremendous economic progress
less viable. This is so partly because of the higher during the past 30 years instigated in most, but not all
marketing costs associated with the collection of countries, by rapid productivity increases in agricul-
products from many small farms and partly because ture. The role of agriculture as the driver of economic
these small farms are unlikely to be able to provide development in low income countries is extremely
the desired income levels for the farm family. Rapid important but frequently overlooked. We need to
concentrations in the agribusiness will further push constantly remind policy makers of the importance of
the structure of farming towards larger and more spe- agricultural growth not only to produce more food,
cialised farms simply because that is expected to but to generate income within and outside agriculture
reduce unit costs in production and marketing. Past and to hopefully eradicate poverty and hunger.
trends of rapidly increasing off-farm income among
small farmers is likely to continue. It is less clear
whether many small farms will in fact be merged into References
larger farms or whether small farming will coexist Delgado, C., Wada, C N., Rosegrant, M., Meijer, S. and
with an increasing share of off-farm employment. Ahmed, M. 2003. Fish to 2020: supply and demand in
Undoubtedly, the changes that do occur will vary changing global markets analysis of supply and demand
with location. in the world fish market to 2020. IFPRI and World Fish
Center, 225 pp.
Popkins, B., Horton, S. and Kim, S. 2001. The nutrition
Concluding comments transition and prevention of diet-related chronic diseases
in Asia and the Pacific. Manila, Asian Development
There is great variation among Asian countries and Bank.
attempts to derive uniform policies for all of Asia Rosegrant, M., Paisner, M., Meijer, S. and Witcover, J.
would not be useful. Clearly, the policies needed for 2001. Global Food Projections to 2020. Washington,
agriculture in Korea and Taiwan are different from D.C., IFPRI.

21

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