Slides presentate in occasione della 3rd International ECCC, 5 - 7 May 2014

1. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
© World Energy Council 2010
World Energy Scenarios
Composing Energy Futures to 2050
Gilberto Callera
Chairman, World Energy Council Italy
Paolo D’Ermo
Energy Studies and Analyses Manager

2. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all© World Energy Council2
World Energy Council (WEC)
WEC is UN-accredited, non-governmental, non-commercial and non-aligned
Established in 1923, WEC is one of the biggest multi-energy International
Organisations
WEC produces many regional, inter-regional and world studies
WEC organises the World Energy Congress every three years, the most
important Multi-energy Congress in the World:
Last round Daegu 2013, South Korea;
Next round Istanbul 2016, Turkey.

3. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
WEC IN THE WORLD
National Member Committees in nearly 100 countries

4. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
WEC’s Flagship Studies
Scenarios Trilemma Resources
Study activity aims to provide energy leaders, policymakers, opinion leaders and voters with proper
data and information about energy issues in order to help them making decisions.

5. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
World Energy Scenarios - Composing energy futures to 2050
Jazz: trade based,
consumer driven, focussed
on access and affordability;
achieving growth through
low cost energy;
Governments facilitate
GHG actions.
What are scenarios?
The Organisation has put together plausible and pragmatic
assessments of the reality of what is actually happening and
not what WEC would like to happen in an ideal or politically
directed world.
The WEC’s World Energy Scenarios to 2050 are therefore exploratory, rather than normative
Symphony: government led,
voter driven, focussed on
environmental goals and
energy security, national and
regional measures to increase
share of renewables in energy
mix; binding international
agreement on GHG emissions

6. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
 WEC Scenarios building process and assumptions;
 Scenario highlights;
 Primary energy supply;
 Global demand by fuel;
 Global electricity production by fuel/technology;
 World investment needs by technologies;
 Two focuses: Central-South Asia and East Asia;
 Global CO2 emissions by regions;
 Conclusions: energy and electricity mix in 2050.
INDEX

7. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
Scenario Building Process and the key drivers differientiating the
two scenarios
1. Government and the role of state
2. Availability of funds: investment
3. Mitigation of CO2
4. Equality, energy access and poverty
5. Global economics
6. Energy prices
7. Consumer/citizen acceptance
8. Energy efficiency
9. Technology developments
10. Security of supply
11. China and India
12. Energy poverty
13. Energy sources
14. Competition for resources
15. Skills shortages
Output from 29 critical issues was then combined with the
messages from regional workshops and further expert input to
yield two distinctly separate scenario stories, differentiated in
terms of 15 specific clusters:

8. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
The WEC’s scenario storyline and quantification assumptions
The WEC’s scenario stories were
quantified into these figures which
acted as constraints in the two models

9. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
Scenarios Highlights
Share of fossil fuels in the total primary energy supply:
• Jazz 2050: 77%
• Symphony 2050: 59%
(share of fossils in 2010: 80%)
Global final energy demand:
• Jazz 2050: 629 EJ
• Symphony 2050: 491 EJ
(demand in 2010: 373 EJ)
Per capita electricity consumption:
• Jazz 2050: 5440kWh/y
• Symphony 2050: 4600kWh/y
(consumption in 2010: 2580kWh/y)
The cumulative CO2 emissions are for 2010 to 2050:
• Jazz: 2000Gt
• Symphony: 1400Gt
(1000Gt from the period 1900-2004)

10. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
10
Global primary energy supply
SYMPHONYJAZZ
Upstream liberalized;
Technology development;
Supply surge/more producers;
Coal remains dominant in some regions.
Tighter supply (lower E&P);
Higher infrastructure costs;
Energy security drives reduced fossil
use.
+61% +27%
20% 30%

11. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
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Total fuel consumption by fuel type: the increasing share
of the electricity
JAZZ:
• economic growth
leads to higher
consumption;
• improved access to
energy.
SYMPHONY:
• lower consumption, high
impact of energy saving
(and lower growth);
• switching away from
fossil fuels (peak in
2030).0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony
2050
EJ/y
Solar
Bio, Alc
Hydrogen
Electricity
Gas
Oil Type
Coal
Heat
Bio noncomm.
Both Scenarios foresee a significant increase of the electricity in the total fuel consumption

12. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
The main driver: population without access to electricity

13. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
13
Global electricity generation by fuel type
+150%
+123%

14. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
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Global investment in Electricity Generation
Cumulative 2010-2050 in GW
• Coal and Solar are the technologies that will
require the largest amount of invesments in the
long run respectively in the Jazz and in the
Symphony scenario;
• Wind and Hydropower will follow with huge
requirments of money in both scenarios;
• Natural gas technologies will require less
investment despite the significant growth of the
capacities in both scenarios.

15. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
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Focus on: South-Central Asia, and East Asia

16. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
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Investment needs in electricity generation in the East Asia (China,
South Korea and Japan)

17. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
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Investment needs in electricity generation in the Central-South Asia
(India and Central Asia countries without Russia)

18. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
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Global CO₂ emissions by region
JAZZ:
• Energy choice based on free
markets
• limited regulations supporting low-
carbon energy (but regional
diversity)
SYMPHONY:
• Priority to environmental
sustainability
• CO2 reduction obligations, carbon
taxes, CC(U)S mandates,
renewable energy subsidies
• consequently: global carbon price
emerges
The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target without enormous economic costs

19. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
• Energy efficiency is absolutely crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply in both
Scenarios;
• Coal remains a dominant fuel (especially in China and India), CCS is critical to coal in Symphony;
• Natural gas will gain more importance in the energy share especially in Jazz;
• Oil will continue to be the dominant fuel in transport with growth in natural gas in Jazz and
Biofuels and electricity in Symphony;
• Nuclear is not a game changer but is important in Symphony;
• Hydro: great economic potential of hydro electricity generation especially in SSA and LAC ;
• Share of renewables increases in Symphony. Solar takes off;
• Future electricity generation mix will be subject to tremendous changes up to 2050 with an
increasing complexity of the system.
Conclusions: energy and electricity generation mix in 2050

20. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!
Paolo D’Ermo,
Energy Studies and Analyses Manager, WEC Italy
paolo.dermo@wec-italia.org
+39 0651605091

21. Promoting the sustainable supply and use of energy for the greatest benefit of all
Conclusions: 10 Key messages
1. Energy system complexity will increase
by 2050
2. Energy efficiency is crucial in dealing
with demand outstripping supply
3. The energy mix in 2050 will mainly be
fossil based
4. Regional priorities differ: there is no ‘one
size fits all solution’ to the energy
trilemma
5. The global economy will be challenged
to meet the 450ppm target without
unacceptable carbon prices
6. A low carbon future is not only linked to
renewables: CC(U)S is important and
consumer behaviour needs changing.
7. CC(U)S technology, solar energy and
energy storage are the key uncertainties
moving forward up to 2050
8. Balancing the energy trilemma means
making hard choices
9. Functioning energy markets require
investments and regional integration to
deliver benefits to all consumers
10. Energy policy should ensure that energy
and carbon markets deliver