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Russian corporate bond
1.
1 Not suitable for
sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected
2.
Political developments Although
late in May 2016 EU decided to extend economic sanctions against Russia, and Russian Government, in its turn, prolonged its partial food embargo against the EU countries, general intensity of mutual standoff is visibly abating; European non-corporate media, as well as most social networks more and more often admit that Ukrainian conflict with Russia supported by certain Western leaders was a mistake; Pardon by Russian president Putin and release of Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko in late May 2016 served as additional evidence of Kremlin’s good intent to improve its relationships with Ukraine and the West; Once the sanctions are lifted, and crude oil price stabilise, the ruble will start to return to its fair exchange rate, and Russian bond yields will go down, thereby eliminating currently existing opportunities in this uniquely politicised fixed income market 2 Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected
3.
Current debt and
rating developments On April 22, 2016 Moody’s confirmed Russia’s Sovereign Rating of Ba1. According to the Moody's statement, the Russian economy has shown resilience to the renewed drop in oil prices while "the fiscal appears sufficient to reduce the 2016-18 deficits to a level that can be financed in the domestic capital markets and through fiscal reserve drawdowns.“; On May 23, 2016 Russia’s MinFin succesfully placed a $1,75 billion 10 year eurobond with low benchmark rate of 4,75%. Russia last tapped international markets in 2013, raising $7bn. Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 3
4.
Unemployment in Russia
Unemployment rate in Russia was recorded at 5.9 percent in April of 2016, down from 6.0 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 6.0 percent. The number of unemployed people decreased by 47 thousand to 4.52 million while economically active increased by 0.2 million to 76.3 million (52 percent of population). 4 Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected
5.
Inflation in Russia
Consumer prices in Russia increased 7.3 percent year-on- year in April of 2016, the same pace as in the preceding month, staying at its lowest level since April of 2014 and below market expectations of 7.4 percent. Food and transport prices growth accelerated while housing and transportation cost slowed down. On a monthly basis, prices edged up by 0.4 percent. 5 Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected
6.
Russia’ GDP: Slowly
out of the woods Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 6
7.
Ruble/USD exchange rate:
back to old devices Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 7
8.
Russia’s gold and
currency reserves: road to rebuilding (and renovation, think gold) Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 8
9.
Russia’s CBR key
interest rate Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 9
10.
Russia Sovereign Yield
Curves: Time Series Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 10
11.
Russian C-Bonds and
the Sovereigns: Typical Yield Curve Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 11
12.
Current growth prospects
Russian borrowers are better positioned vis-a-vis their CIS counterparts due to generally stronger credit metrics and the more diversified and more resilient, largely due to ample ruble devaluation in 2013-2015, domestic economy; Provided we will not face further deterioration of the geopolitical situation or other adverse market conditions, we expect the demand from investors on both markets for selected strong, either export- or domestic service-oriented market leaders in respective industries with healthy balance sheets and strong liquidity positions; Strong pool of relationship banks will play an important role on the syndicated market together with secure deal structures; Opportunity pricing is relevant for all Russia’s markets. Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 12
13.
Our Key Team
Members Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 13
14.
Vladimir Rojankovski, LIFA Working
with HSBC James Capel in 1996, he was the first of the Russian-speaking employees who conducted broad-based in-house presentation on Russia’s political and investment climate in London. He participated in preparation in the pre-IPO Gazprom investment memorandum and due diligence clarification letter in conjunction with launch of Gazprom ADS on the London Stock Exchange. In 1997-1998 Mr. Rojankovski worked in Russia, including with a then Top-5 stock market operators Regent European Securities (affiliated with Regent Pacific). That period had brought a new practical experience in more sophisticated Russia’s domestic market research. It is worth to mention that Regent Pacific was a member of well-known Tiger Funds family, one of which was recognized the best alternative global fund in 1996. That period was particularly rich by extensive Russia-wide business trips, ranging from Krasnodar and Belgorod to Irkutsk and Sayanogorsk – ones that delivered undistorted vision of Russia’s manufacturing process and shareholder rights’ enforcement, as well as numerous valuable interpersonal contacts with top management of respective enterprises. Until recently, Mr. Rojankovski was head of equity research of one of the oldest (since 1992) Russian international brokerage company. His main management credo has been to provide maximum freedom to creative analytical work as far as accuracy of respective viewpoints is concerned. An individual analyst responsibility was strictly enforced by creation and tracking of a benchmark analytical portfolio, solely based on the analysts’ issued recommendations. Mr. Rojankovski is a fluent speaker of several languages and graduated from Moscow Power Engineering Institute (now Moscow State Technical University). He carries designation of NASD Registered Representative in the New York State (SEC Series 7, 63) and is a charter- holder of LIFA. Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 14 Vladimir ROJANKOVSKI has over 18 year track record in international (USA, UK, Russia) investment and brokerage houses. Since the beginning of his career, Vladimir ROJANKOVSKI has written over 150 professional research reports and presentations dedicated to various industrial enterprises, banks and macroeconomic issues both in Russian and English. In 1996 Mr. Rojankovski studied the SEC compliance and fundamentals of the US securities law. Having dedicated several months to studying US GAAP, he had returned to Russia with backpack of practical knowledge sufficient to participate in a number of top value corporate investment projects such as Makheev Finance, Solikamsk Magnesium Plant, Lovozersk Ore- Enrichment Plant, etc. In 1996 he enrolled in a Government-sponsored bilateral Russia /Great Britain financial specialist exchange program entitled Chancellor’s Financial Sector Scheme. As part of the pilot program, he completed express course (full equivalent of MBA) at Canterbury Business School and joined HSBC James Capel in London. Working side by side with recognized front-runners of global financial and investment industry, he acquired not only in-depth valuation skills, but adherence to high corporate ethic standards. His first publications in a number of front-end Russian and international (UK, USA) financial press also dated back to that time. In particular, he published an extensive article unveiling “bubble stocks” demonstrated their real speculative nature during the Asian stock market flu in October 1997.
15.
Roman Dmitriev Roman Dmitriev
is graduated with honor from Russian State Academy of Management with specialty of World economy. Having started his extensive bond market trading career in 1996 being one of the frontliners at one of the world’s most talked about GEM institutional investors/brokers, MFK- Renaissance, Roman obtained thorough understanding and hands-on experience in EM bond selection, valuation, execution and settlement. Roman, then, worked as VP of “Russkie Fondy” – also very prominent local market securities dealer – for six years thereon. His experience on bond trading desk with Nord Capital further threatened his market grasp and intuition, allowing to create complex short/long derivative- enhanced bond strategies, which greatly enhanced implied and realized fixed income yields. Atmosphere of family office gave opportunity to participate in every step of trade initiation, settlement, depository and coupon collection tracking activities. Roman has always been very ethical in avoiding most common trading pitfalls simultaneously caring about each particular client’s needs and promptly addressing his or her relevant queries. Finally, his position with NC was upgraded to Managing Director of companywide fixed income portfolios. Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 15 His latest job at Specter Invest as Head of trading desk and portfolio management has enabled him to reach level of fully accomplished, ‘self-contained’ professional with tons of practical experience – including in such areas as regulatory interaction and compliance. His expertise with Specter Invest not only covered Russian bonds and derivatives, but spread far throughout entire Global Emerging Market universe, which eventually lead to formation of bond-oriented in-house hedge fund, which performance in late 2000’s greatly exceeded all applicable GEM bond benchmarks. Roman Dmitriev holds Russian Secutiries and Exchanges Regulator’s (FSFR’s) certificates of 1.0 and 5.0 series, along with certificate of an accredited Moscow Exchange (MOEX) trader/dealer.
16.
Ross Stoukalov Ross Stoukalov
has over 15 years of international HNWI consulting experience througout Europe and Russia, having secured several dozen low-risk high-return accounts. Having started his career in 1993 with Lehman Brothers (London) and then further strenthening his professional path through experience with Oppenheimer International Fund in London in 1997-1999, Ross restlessly strived to complete his professional roundup by successfully passing all pertinent regulatory exams - such as U.S.'s SEC Series 7 and 63, those from Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (UK) and Chartered Institute of Insurance (UK). Being graduated with M.Sc.from St Petersburg's School of Economics and Political Science, Mr. Stoukalov boasts by extremely unique bilingual/bicultural combination of his background and talent, which allows him to be always finely tuned in terms of global market opportunities and individually tailored private investors' needs and aspirations. His perfect bilingualism/biculturalism has always made him standing out of the crowd and greatly above an average Western school graduate with typical “your next door” professional experience. For the past 5 years Ross have been preemptively focused on sales of life protection products by various European providers to international expatriates and their families, with emphasis on long-term savings and pension plans, and children's education planning. Professional growth has been aimed at developing and maintaining a broad international client base in the EU and overseas Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 16
17.
Securities Disclaimer This Presentation
is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell shares or securities in the Company or any related or associated company. Any such offer or solicitation will be made only by means of the Company's confidential Offering Memorandum and in accordance with the terms of all applicable securities and other laws. None of the information or analyses presented are intended to form the basis for any investment decision, and no specific recommendations are intended. Accordingly this Presentation does not constitute investment advice or counsel or solicitation for investment in any security. This website does not constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or subscription of, or any invitation to offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor should it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in any connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The Company expressly disclaims any and all responsibility for any direct or consequential loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from: (i) discretionary, frivolous reliance on any information contained in the Presentation, (ii) any error, omission or inaccuracy in any such information or (iii) any action resulting therefrom. Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 17
18.
Thank you for
your time and attention! Not suitable for sale in U.S. and the U.K. © 2016 SDR Group, tentative name is protected 18
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