1. +
Arab Spring
VistaMind

2. +
North Africa & Middle East
 Traditionally seen as immune to Democracy
 Democracy has come to South America, Asia, Eastern Europe
 Typical features
 Bad rulers (Monarchs and Dictators)
 Poor Human Development Indicators
 High Unemployment
 Terrorist and Fundamentalist fringe elements
 Sectarian or Tribal loyalties
 Rule by brute force and by fear

3. +
Foreign Patronage
 Saddam Husain -US (Against Khomeini’s Iran)
 Syria, Yemen by USSR
 Bahrain by Saudi Arabia
 International community was neutral
 Stability of the region
 Fear of fundamentalism
 Belief – Unsuitable for Democracy

4. +
Tunisia Dec 2010
 Small Country fringe player in the Arab World
 Better Educated, Relatively Prosperous nation
 Non Violent revolution
 Mohamed Bouazizi – Fruit vendor
 Millions onto the street
 Current Status: Democratic Coalition Govt
 Nahda, Islamist party + 2 Secular Parties
 Peaceful transition

5. +
Egypt – January 2010
 One of the cradles of the World Civilization
 18 years of Hosni Mubarak
 18 days of protests at Tahrir Square
 Army withdrew support from Hosni Mubarak
 Current Status
 Democratic and fair elections held
 Muslim Brotherhood, Army & Liberals key players
 Extremist Salafist Party
 Secular Liberals – Disorganized & unprepared

6. +
Egypt What lies in store
 Poor state of the economy
 Dependent on Tourism and Foreign Aid
 High inflation & Unemployment
 Muslim Brotherhood
 Strike a balance Islam and Modernity
 Well organized and politically savvy
 Secular Liberals
 Urban, Educated
 Army is the key
 Large reasonably modern disciplined army

7. +
Libya – Feb – Oct 2011
 Oil Rich, Sparsely populated
 40 years of Mummar Qaddafi
 No traces of Democracy or civil rights
 Rule of terror, megalomania, opulence
 Flirtation with Terorrism
 Protests to Civil War
 Use of force against unarmed protesters
 Defections from armed forces
 Western Air support tilts the balance

8. +
Bahrain – Feb 2011
 A key ally of Saudi Arabia - USA
 The Khalifa Dynasty (Sunni)
 Vast majority is Shia
 Protests for democracy, Constitutional monarchy
 Saudi Troops sent to back the Ruling monarchy
 USA stays largely silent
 30 Killed, 300+ arrested, many missing
 Key Forces
 Largest opposition party Wefaq
 The Suadi Royal Family
 Kuwait – offered services as Mediator

9. +
Syria March 2011 onwards
 President Bashar AL Assad
 Ruler since 1963
 Emergency law since 63 bans opp parties
 Protests – Repression – Civil War
 Unarmed protests are brutally put down
 Armed rebellion escalates to civil war
 Over 30,000 people killed

10. +
Syria March 2011 onwards
 Free Syrian Army
 Rebels and Defectors from Syrian Army
 Formation of Government in Exile
 Recognition by 149 countries
 Arab League intervention
 Throws Syria our of the league
 Imposes sanctions, joined by Turkey

11. +
Key Learning's
 Educated unemployed people have high aspirations, can lead
to dissatisfaction
 Aspirations and hope is contagious
 Social Media is highly effective at organizing protests and
difficult to censor
 Democratic institutions take time to build