5. 28 years of high growth 1.0 3.5 6.0 8.9 (%) Average annual GDP growth 0 2 4 6 8 10 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
6. Population growth is slowing Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001) 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 (%) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
7. Literacy is rising Source: Census of India (2001) 17 52 65 80 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
8. When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002 65 220 368 8% 22% 32% 0 100 200 300 400 1980 2000 2010 (m)
9. Poverty is declining 46 26 16 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years Equals ~ 200m (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 1980 2000 2010
10. Per capita income gains Source: World Bank US$ ppp 2005 3,051 1980 1,178
19. Implication of India model – Consumption led People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP People Friendly, Less inequality: Gini Index Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.? 41% 45% 59% U.S. China Brazil India 33% 58% 42% 64% Europe China India
20. Reasons for success India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state induced The entrepreneur is at the centre of the Indian model
35. “ By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
36.
37.
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39. Per capita income 2,100 3,050 5,800 16,800 37,000 On a ppp basis 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 0 10 20 30 40 ($000)
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41. India will gradually turn middle-class 50% 50% 8% 22% 32% West of the Kanpur- Chennai line East of the Kanpur- Chennai line Chennai Kanpur- 1980 2000 2010 2020 2040