The document discusses various exchange rate regimes including hard pegs, soft pegs, crawling pegs, target zones, and managed floats. It notes that with a hard peg, a currency's price is held permanently at a fixed level, while with a soft peg or crawling peg the parity level can be adjusted periodically or have prescheduled changes. Exchange rate policies can also vary in their degree of commitment. Maintaining a currency peg can be difficult when economic conditions change and force adjustments to monetary policy. Speculative attacks can also threaten pegged exchange rates if markets believe a devaluation is likely.
2. Commitment
Exchange Rate Policy can be characterized
along two dimensions
Currency
Union (Euro)
Hard Peg
(China)
Pure Float
(USA)
Flexibility
3. With a hard peg, a currency’s price is held
permanently at a fixed level. For example, the
Chinese Yuan.
Flexibility
e
.1265
$1 = 7.90Yuan
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
4. With a soft peg, a currency’s price is returned
to the predefined parity at regular intervals
(monthly, weekly, etc). For example, the
Algerian Dinar.
Flexibility
e
$1 = 76 Dinar
.012
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
5. With an adjustable peg, the parity price is
adjusted as circumstances warrant (monthly,
weekly, etc). The Bretton Woods System was
an adjustable peg
Flexibility
e
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
6. With a crawling peg, a currency’s price is held
permanently at a fixed level, but that parity level
has prescheduled changes For example, the
Mexican Peso followed a crawling peg in the
1990s
Flexibility
e
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
7. With a target zone, a currency’s price
is held permanently between an upper
and lower bound. The Bretton Woods
system used 2% bands
Flexibility
e
+2%
-2%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
8. From 1971 until 1987 the US followed a policy
of managed floating (market based exchange
rate with periodic “re-alignments”). A pure
float would have no such re-alignments.
USD/JPY
400.00
The Plaza Accord
(1985) purposely
devalued the dollar
against the Yen and
Deutschmark by
51%
350.00
300.00
250.00
200.00
The Louvre Accord
(1987) ended the
dollar devaluation
policy of the plaza
accord
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
Jan-71
Flexibility
Jan-75
Jan-79
Jan-83
Jan-87
9. Policies can also vary by the degree of commitment to the
policy
Commitment
Fixed Exchange Rate: This is simply a policy
decision of the government or central bank
and can be easily reversed (China).
Currency Boards: A currency board is a
monetary authority separate from (or in
replacement of) a country’s central bank
whose sole responsibility is maintaining
convertibility of the country’s currency. (Hong
Kong)
Dollarization/Currency Union: foreign money
replaces domestic money as official currency
(Panama)
10. Exchange Rate Systems
Pure Float
6%
Managed Float
21%
10%
5%
14%
20%
24%
Crawling Peg or
Band
Target Zone
Pure Peg
Currency Board
Dollarization
11. Currency Baskets
Some countries choose to peg to a “basket” of currencies rather
that a single currency. This basket will have a price equal to a
weighted average of the individual currencies
Latvia: SDR (Euro, JPY, GBP, USD)
Malta: Euro (67%), USD21%), GBP (12%)
Iceland: Euro + 6 other countries
Why peg to a basket?
Baskets of currency should exhibit less volatility that individual
currencies.
The central bank has a wider choice of options for official
reserves
12. Costs/Benefits of Fixed Exchange
Rates
Main Benefit
Reduces uncertainty with regard to cross border
trade in both goods and assets
Main Cost
Eliminates a country’s ability to use monetary
policy for domestic objectives
Full Employment
High Output Growth
Low Inflation
13. Suppose that the US decides to peg to the Euro at a price of $1.30 per
Euro – Our ability to maintain the peg depends on our foreign
exchange reserves.
Liabilities
$ 10,000,000 (Currency)
Assets
E 2,000,000 (Euro)
E 3,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
E 5,000,000
X
1.30 $/E
$ 6,500,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$10,000,000
Currently, the reserve ratio is 65% (6.5M/10M)
14. If we are going to analyze the policy options, we need a
structured framework to proceed.
Long Run
PPP holds
Relative prices are
constant. Therefore,
the real exchange rate
equals one
The nominal exchange
rate returns to its
“fundamentals”
Short Run
Commodity prices are
fixed (PPP fails)
UIP and Currency
markets determine
exchange rates
15. Using PPP and the two Money Market equilibrium conditions, we
get the “fundamentals” for a currency
Foreign Money Market
Domestic Money Market
(1 + i ) M
P=
y
(
)
M*
P* = 1 + i* *
y
PPP
P = eP
*
*
M Y 1 + i
e = *
Y 1 + i*
M
This should give us the long run trend
16. The US is pegging at $1.30/Euro. This explicitly defines a
monetary policy!
*
M Y 1 + i
1.30 = e = *
Y 1 + i*
M
Now, solve for M
*
Y 1 + i
M = 1.30 M * *
1+ i
Y
( )
We now have the US monetary policy rule
17. This is actually better expressed in percentage terms…
%∆M = %∆M * + ( %∆Y − %∆Y * ) + ( i * − i )
Note: All else equal, money growth rates should be the
same.
Suppose that US economic growth is 4% per year
while Europe is 1% per year.
To maintain the peg, the US would have to
increase the US money supply by 3% relative to
Europe
18. Mama knows best!
“If Billy jumped off the
Brooklyn Bridge,
would you do it to?”
*
Y 1 + i
M = 1.30 M *
1+ i
Y
( )
*
Suppose that Europe was following an irresponsible monetary
policy (excessive money growth). If the US was pegging to the
Euro, we would be forced into the same irresponsible behavior!
19. You need to choose a currency regime that is
compatible in the long run with your economic
fundamentals
e
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Mexico’s crawling peg to the US was due to its high inflation rate
relative to the US (high inflation is a result of low economic growth
and high money growth
20. Suppose the Federal Reserve conducts an open market purchase of
$1,000,000 in Treasuries to increase the money supply, what will the short
run impact be?
Liabilities
$ 10,000,000 (Currency)
+ $1,000,000
Assets
E 2,000,000 (Euro)
E 3,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
E 5,000,000
X
1.30 $/E
$ 6,500,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$10,000,000
+ $1,000,000 (T-Bills)
The reserve ratio drops to 59% (6.5M/11M)
21. The increase in money increases income (this worsens the trade
balance as imports increase) and lowers domestic interest rates (this
worsens the capital account by cutting off foreign investment)
i
LM
BOP = 0
i
IS
y
With a BOP deficit, Federal Reserve must use Euro
reserves to buy dollars in order to maintain the peg
22. The Fed Conducts an open market purchase of Dollars
Liabilities
$ 10,000,000 (Currency)
+ $1,000,000
- $1,000,000
Assets
E 2,000,000 (Euro)
E 3,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
E 5,000,000
X
1.30 $/E
$ 6,500,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$10,000,000
+ $1,000,000 (T-Bills)
- $1,000,000 (Euros)
The reserve ratio drops to 55% (5.5M/10M)
Note: The money supply returns to $10M
23. Suppose that the US Government runs a deficit
(either spending increases or tax cuts) to
stimulate the economy
i
Increased spending increases the trade deficit
Higher government debt raises the interest rate (this
attracts foreign capital)
LM
Can this policy be maintained
under a currency peg system?
i
IS
y
24. If capital mobility is sufficiently high, the increase in domestic interest
rated creates sufficient capital inflow to finance the trade deficit. The
dollar begins to appreciate
i
LM
BOP = 0
i
BOP = CA + KFA
IS
y
The balance of payments surplus forces the dollar to appreciate in
the short run.
25. The Fed Conducts an open market sale of Dollars to maintain
the peg with the Euro
Liabilities
$ 10,000,000 (Currency)
+ $1,000,000
Assets
E 2,000,000 (Euro)
E 3,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
E 5,000,000
X
1.30 $/E
$ 6,500,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$10,000,000
+$1,000,000 (Euros)
The reserve ratio rises to 68% (7.5M/11M)
26. With low capital mobility, high US interest rates are unable to
attract sufficient financing for the trade deficit. A BOP deficit
causes the dollar to depreciate
i
BOP = 0 LM
i
BOP = CA + KFA
IS
y
The balance of payments surplus forces the dollar to depreciate in
the short run.
27. The Fed Conducts an open market purchase of Dollars to
maintain the peg with the Euro
Liabilities
$ 10,000,000 (Currency)
- $1,000,000
Assets
E 2,000,000 (Euro)
E 3,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
E 5,000,000
X
1.30 $/E
$ 6,500,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$10,000,000
-$1,000,000 (Euros)
The reserve ratio falls to 61% (5.5M/9M)
The purchase of dollars contracts the money supply. Can the
Fed avoid this monetary contraction?
28. The Fed Conducts an open market purchase of Treasuries to
“Sterilize” the currency intervention
Liabilities
$ 10,000,000 (Currency)
$1,000,000
+ $1,000,000
Assets
E 2,000,000 (Euro)
E 3,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
-
E 5,000,000
X
1.30 $/E
$ 6,500,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$10,000,000
-$1,000,000 (Euros)
+$1,000,000 (T-Bills)
The reserve ratio falls to 55% (5.5M/10M)
29. Suppose that foreign investors view US debt as too risky?
Financial flows reverse, the US runs a BOP deficit requiring
a purchase of dollars
i
LM
Reversal of capital flows causes
the dollar to begin to depreciate.
The US must correct this by
buying dollars.
i
IS
y
Note: This would contract the money supply – raising interest rates and
lowering output.
30. The Fed Conducts an open market purchase of dollars to
stabilize the exchange rate
Liabilities
$ 10,000,000 (Currency)
- $1,000,000
Assets
E 2,000,000 (Euro)
E 3,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
E 5,000,000
X
1.30 $/E
$ 6,500,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$10,000,000
-$1,000,000 (Euros)
The reserve ratio falls to 61% (5.5M/9M)
31. Suppose that foreign investors view US debt as too risky?
Financial flows reverse, the US runs a BOP deficit.
i
LM
i
IS
y
Alternatively, if capital is mobile
enough, the government could
“bail out” the private companies
– replacing private debt with
public debt
This is risky…total indebtedness increase!!
32. Foreign Reserves are dangerously low! What can we do?
Liabilities
$ 6,100,000 (Currency)
Assets
E 1,000,000 (Euro)
E 1,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
E 2,000,000
X
1.30 $/E
$ 2,600,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$6,100,000
The reserve ratio is at 42% (2.6M/6.1M)
The Fed could fix this problem by devaluing the dollar (i.e. raising the
dollar price of Euro)
The drop in value would hopefully stop the selling
The devaluation would also improve the Fed’s reserve position
33. A devaluation from $1.30 to $1.50 helps
Liabilities
$ 6,100,000 (Currency)
The reserve ratio is at 49% (3M/6.1M)
Assets
E 1,000,000 (Euro)
E 1,000,000 (ECB Bonds)
E 2,000,000
X
1.50 $/E
$ 3,000,000
$ 3,500,000 (T-Bills)
$6,500,000
34. Speculation and “Peso Problems”
Even a strong currency can become the
victim of a speculative attack.
If the market believes that a currency might
devalue in the future, they will sell that
country’s currency and assets.
The resulting balance of payments deficit
forces the country to devalue (self fulfilling
prophesy)
35. Short Run Management
Currency Pegs work well as long as times are
good
A country can maintain an appreciating currency
forever
Currency pegs are not terribly successful during
tough times
You can’t maintain a depreciating currency forever –
and markets know this!
A peg forces you to follow policies that tend to make
economic conditions worse (tight money, balanced
government budgets)
36. Pearls of wisdom from “The Karate
Kid”
“Daniel-san, must talk. Man walk on road. Walk left side, safe. Walk right
side, safe. Walk down middle, sooner or later, get squished just like
grape. Same here. You karate do "yes," or karate do "no." You karate do
"guess so," just like grape. Understand?”
