Future trends in technology Business Incubation.

1. New Zealand Trade and Enterprise
Asian Association of Business Incubation
International Conference, Auckland, New Zealand
March 2007
Future Trends in
Technology Business Incubation
Rustam Lalkaka
Business & Technology Development Strategies LLC
rlalkaka@btds.biz www.btds.biz

2. Key Development Concern is now Poverty
Today, 1 in 5 of the world’s people - 1.2 billion - live on
less than one dollar a day, 1 in 3 have no access to electricity,
and 1 in 2 lack basic sanitation. 50 countries have lower per
capita incomes now than a decade ago.
Traditional measures of poverty focus on income or
expenditure. The broader concept of Empowerment,
however, covers choices, opportunities and access to:
Human Assets (Skills, Knowledge, Health care)
Social Assets (Family, Friends, Political networks)
Financial Assets (Savings, Government transfers, Credit)
Physical Assets (Property rights, drinking Water, clean Air)
Equity, Human rights, Self-esteem, Social Inclusion
Respect for Culture, Ethnicity, Religion, Language
The lack of access to such assets are ‘unfreedoms’

3. The Paradoxes of Poverty
Knowledge to attack problems of poverty and disease exists.
But political commitment and resources have yet to be mobilized.
Knowledge Rights (IP) unfairly deny the right to a better life
Energy demands of developing nations must rise & oil prices
climb, with disastrous effects on global warming and growth.
Today renewable energy contributes under 15 % of global
supply
People paradox: Population is ageing in many rich countries
but proportions of youth are rising in poor countries - This poses
the dilemma: Import young workers OR export the work ?
Official development assistance to poor countries is about
$ 50 billion a year. Subsidies to agriculture in rich nations are
$ 350 billion, and military expenditures $1,000 billion
Racial, religious and gender violence make us all less secure

4. Determinants of Incubation
Success ....beyond incubator location, layout,
management
Public policy
Community support
Geography Business
History Infrastructure
Culture
The COMMUNITY is the New incubation
Context
ultimate supporter modes must be
(and beneficiary) developed to address
of the Incubation system rural & urban poverty

5. Putting Incubation in Context
Incubation deals with a tiny portion of SME development
It is no panacea, not a solution to vast unemployment
Incubation requires a variety of players, playing as a team
For success, it must be integrated in national plans
Its about people and process, not only plans and policies
Change comes slowly, and failure is part of success
From the outset, it must involve politicians and community
Importantly, incubation must have a ‘champion’
Half the world’s 4,500+ incubators are in developing
nations. But one-third of these are in only three
(China, Brazil, Korea)

6. Emerging Developments Worldwide
ONE, Technology need no longer be the dominant focus.
The urgent issues are employment, empowerment, environment
TWO, Government should no longer be the sole sponsor.
The emerging model is of public-private-academia partnering
THREE, the Bottom-of-pyramid - 4 bill poor with $ 2,000 PPP
income - is much bigger market than the affluent 100 million with
$20,000 at Top-of-pyramid. MNCs and SMEs can serve BoP
FOUR, it is not enough to look west at USA and Europe, as
significant developments are taking place in the South, eg. in
Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and in East, eg. China, India, Korea
No one wants to (or can) stop the GLOBALIZATION
Express, but you must prepare the platform for us to
jump on to it !!

7. Future developments outside the incubator
Many service/ pharma/ manufacture jobs will move out of USA
Skilled migrants will return home, while American youth migrate
Disparities in incomes within countries may well widen
More people will work at home, Ideas of retirement will change
Workers will choose quality-time over more money
Computing power/convergence will rise, Robots will replace labor
Use of stem-cells and targeted drug delivery will enhance health
Water shortages will become severe > Major cause of conflicts
Costs of global climate change will rise to billions per year
....but enlightened self-interest and human ingenuity
may well prevail

8. Discernible Incubation Trends
1. Convergence of services on the ‘smart’ Incubation platform
2. Incubators & Managers accredited to meet quality norms
4. Stronger links to knowledge-base: academia-research
5. Mobilizing public-private partnerships, to serve the BoP
6. e-incubation network for distance counseling, as eRedes
7. Increase in global out-sourcing of services /manufacture
8. More emphasis on MIS, monitoring, evaluation, impact
Move towards balance between:
Public intervention> Private Initiative
>Inclusive Development

9. 9. Strengthened incubator association linked worldwide
10. Social innovation - civic entrepreneurs, to address 3 E’s
11. New technologies (nano, environment, energy, security)
12. Expatriate nationals to bring back expertise, contacts
13. International incubation alliances for soft-landings/synergy
14. Incubator Expansion: Finland (pop. 5 mill has 40
incubators), Korea (pop 50 mill - 350 incubators), that is,
7 to 8 per million pop. What are the plans in your country?
Which of the trends above will be your national priorities??
We welcome your comments and proposals

10. We cannot solve tomorrow’s problems
using the same skills and knowledge we had
when we created them
Albert Einstein