CEP: Event-Decision Architecture for PredictiveBusiness, Centre for Strategic Infocomm Technologies (CSIT), Singapore July 26, 2006, Tim Bass, CISSP, Principal Global Architect, Director, TIBCO Software Inc.

1. CEP: Event-Decision Architecture for PredictiveBusiness TM Centre for Strategic Infocomm Technologies (CSIT), Singapore July 26, 2006 Tim Bass, CISSP Principal Global Architect, Director TIBCO Software Inc.

4. A Vocabulary of Confusion (Work in Progress) Resource Management Data Fusion Sensor Fusion Information Fusion Tracking Data Mining Correlation Planning Complex Event Processing Processing Management Sensor Management Control Estimation Event Stream Processing Adapted from: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., CRC Press, 2001

5. PredictiveBusiness TM

10. TIBCO BusinessEvents™ Solutions Overview BusinessEvents™ Solutions Space Data: Events & Databases -Real-Time & Historical Data Models: Statistical Financial Optimization Comms: Pub/Sub Messaging Queues Topics UIs Knowledge: Facts & Rules

12. Event-Decision Hierarchy 22 Impact Assessment Situational Assessment Relationship of Events Identify Events Location, Times and Rates of Events of Interest Existence of Possible Event of Interest Data/Event Cloud Analysis of Situation & Plans Contextual and Causal Analysis Causal Analysis, Bayesian Belief Networks, NNs, Correlation, State Estimation, Classification Use of Distributed Sensors for Estimations Raw Sensor Data (Passive and Active) Adapted from: Waltz, E. & Llinas, J., Multisensor Data Fusion, 1990 HIGH LOW MED

13. Event-Decision High Level Architecture 22 EVENT CLOUD (DISTRIBUTED DATA SET) KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS KS Adapted from: Engelmore, R. S., Morgan, A.J., & and Nii, H. P., Blackboard Systems, 1988 & Luckham, D., The Power of Events, 2002

15. Event-Decision Reference Architecture 24 EVENT PRE-PROCESSING EVENT SOURCES EXTERNAL . . . LEVEL ONE EVENT REFINEMENT USER INTERFACE COMPLEX EVENT PROCESSING (CEP) DB MANAGEMENT Historical Data Profiles & Patterns DISTRIBUTED LOCAL EVENT SERVICES . . EVENT PROFILES . . DATA BASES . . OTHER DATA LEVEL TWO SITUATION REFINEMENT LEVEL THREE IMPACT ASSESSMENT LEVEL FOUR PROCESS REFINEMENT Adapted from JDL: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., Handbook of Multisensor Data Fusion, CRC Press, 2001

24. TIBCO’S Event-Decision Reference Architecture Flexible SOA and Event-Driven Architecture

26. Event Processing Application Scenarios Examples of Detection-Prediction Scenarios We Solve for Customers POC Fraud Detection Financial Services Pre-Sales Intrusion Detection Financial Services Production Supply Chain Monitoring Business Hub (B2B) Planning/POC Supply Chain Monitoring Manufacturing Pre-Sales Anti Money Laundering Government Pre-Sales Power Grid Monitoring Energy Production Track & Trace Transportation Production Service Monitoring Telecommunications Pre-Sales Track & Trace Supply Chain - Logistics Pre-Sales Network & Applications Management Telecommunications Status (2Q06) Application Scenarios Industry

27. Identity Theft Detection / Phishing Example Fraud Detection Scenario Source: Bass, T., TIBCO Software Inc., January 2006 Uses Proxy Alert Service Account Lockout Profile Mismatch Brand Phishing Alert Security Alert Customer Known Fraud IP Identity Theft Login Success Phishing Alert Brand Misuse

28. Customer Case Study: Fusion-Based IDS High Level Event-Driven Architecture (EDA) – Early Phase JAVA MESSAGING SERVICE (JMS) DISTRIBUTED QUEUES (TIBCO EMS) HIGH PERFORMANCE RULES-ENGINE (TIBCO BE) HIGH PERFORMANCE RULES-ENGINE (TIBCO BE) HIGH PERFORMANCE RULES-ENGINE (TIBCO BE) HIGH PERFORMANCE RULES-ENGINE (TIBCO BE ) SENSOR NETWORK RULES NETWORK NIDS BW JMS LOGFILE JMS BW LOGFILE JMS BW LOGFILE JMS BW IDS JMS BW HIDS JMS BW SQL DB BW JMS ADB SQL DB BW JMS ADB MESSAGING NETWORK TIBCO PRODUCTS

31. Event-Decision Processing Characteristics Adapted (this and the next slide) from: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., Handbook of Multisensor Data Fusion, CRC Press, 2001 Sensor Output Individual Event Aggregation (situation) Effect (situation, given plan) (Action) Entity Estimate Sensor Processing Event Processing Situation Assessment Impact Assessment Decision Making Activity Detection Assignment (L0) Event Preprocessing Attribution Assignment (L1) Event Refinement Relational Aggregation (L2) Situation Refinement Plan Interaction Aggregation (L3) Impact Assessment (Control) Planning (L4) Process Refinement Estimation Process Association Process JDL Model Levels

32. Comparison of Event-Decision Models Sense Detect Detect Analyze Analyze Decide Respond Sense & Respond Sensor Processing Collate Orient Sensor Processing (L0) Event Preprocessing Sensor Acquisition Collect Observe Sensing --- Activity Intelligence Cycle Boyd Loop Waterfall Model JDL Model Levels Decision Execution Disseminate Act (L5) Visualization Collate Evaluate Evaluate Disseminate Event Processing Situation Assessment Impact Assessment Decision Making Orient Pattern Processing / Feature Extraction (L1) Event Refinement Orient Situation Assessment (L2) Situation Refinement Orient --- (L3) Impact Assessment Decide Decision Making (L4) Process Refinement

33. Enterprise Scenario The Full Range of Business Integration Products and Services EVENTS EVENTS

35. Thank You! Tim Bass, CISSP Principal Global Architect [email_address] Complex Event Processing at TIBCO

36. Example Publications, Webinars and Tools