1. FUTURES FOR HIGHER
EDUCATION
UUK SCENARIOS PROJECT
AUA Planning Forum
9 February 2011

2. There are some big questions
facing the sector
• Shift to fees
Short term
• ‘Interventionist’ deregulation
• New entrants
Medium • New models of deregulation
term
• Significant shift to private finance?
• More differentiation?
Long-term • More fragmented provision?

3. So our LTSN has run a scenarios
exercise
To take stock of longer And help start a
Through a mix of
term drivers and shape conversation on the long
activities
of the sector... term future of the sector
• Set in the context of current • Help build a collective vision’ • Four LTSN meetings
reforms but with a longer term for the long-term future of the
view HE sector • Three university workshops
• Develop new insights and ways • Be useful to institutions by • Three UUK staff workshops
of thinking about the future helping them look beyond the
short- to medium-term
• Survey
• Describe the possible outcomes
of uncertainties facing the • Shape an agenda of work for
sector securing the long term success • Planners group executive
of the sector

4. We reflected on the ongoing challenges
of the 21st century
University interest
Autonomy & Freedom
Reputation and sustainability
New opportunities in New industries - demand for new
developing countries types of skills
Multiplicity of provision, inc New technology - new ways of
learning and teaching
‘unbundling’ of content
New research agendas economic, tech
Competitive nological, politi
Resilience/
global cal & social
success
markets change
‘Consumer interest’ Climate
regulation change, migration, demographic
change
Demand led funding
Global economic crisis and growing
economic power of Asia
Constitutional change (EU, UK)
Public interest
Economic growth
Social equity and stability

5. We also came up with our own scenarios
for the sector
• Normative transforming ‘Mont fleur’ model
• Flight of the
Flamingos 'vision'
scenario: 'networks
of universities at Does quality assurance keep up
the heart of social HEIs at the heart of
and economic with new complexity/multiplicity?
advance‘ social
Do we know /offer what YES and economic
• Icarus: 'Rapid a fast-changing advance
expansion at the NO
-
expense of a global society needs from
reputation for universities?YES
excellence‘
• Lame ostrich:
'Internecine -
struggles and
marginalisation' NO Quality & international
Self-interested reputation of UKHE declines
protectionist, marginalised

6. We have learned lessons on using
scenarios from our exercise
Going longer term
• Can help to raise the sights if not a prediction
• Stay alert to changing landscape – think of that ‘KODAK’ moment
The conversation is key
• Pushing some challenging or provocative points to the group is essential
• Structure it in order to avoid ‘group think’
Consider using it as part of a wider programme
• As an evaluation an existing strategy or developing a new strategy
• Or a wider programme of engagement
Use your left and right brains
• Facilitated process for creative and critical thinking
• But start thinking early on about what concrete actions you may need to take
Ask yourself what you actually want for the future
• Assuming we have one

7. And now we have produced a toolkit for others to
benefit from
www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/ScenariosProject
• Introductions
• The report
• Workshop templates
• Presentations
• Facilitation tips and tools
• Data sets
• Strategy check lists
• And a whole lot more...

8. Get in touch to discuss
how our work can help
• Toolkit end user support:
• Advice
• Facilitation
• The expanding set of UUK outputs:
– Policy briefings and data analysis
– Data blog
• Starting a conversation:
– Hearing about users findings and experiences
– Evaluating the project itself

9. Because there are some significant
short-term milestones coming up
• HEFCE grant allocations for AY2012/13
– Student number controls, phasing out of teaching funding
– Impact of departmental unallocated provision
• Governance reforms in Scotland
• HEFCE teaching funding consultation
• March budget and OBR forecasts
• Outcomes of 2012/13 admissions cycle (undergraduate and
postgraduate)
– Impact of teaching funding policy changes on student and institution behaviour
– Extent of loan take-up and pressures on BIS budget
– Impact of visa policy changes
• The HE bill ????

10. Here are some questions
to you
What are the implications of what How do you use scenarios in your
emerges from the UUK exercise? own work?
• How do the outcomes of your
• Your own conclusions/themes? scenarios planning feed into
decision-making in your
institution?
• You institution?
• What other challenges do you
• Your role?
face? e.g. engagement
• How can UUK support you in
your own work?