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Accelerating innovation globally prof. dr. Mark Harris Intel - L'Internet du Futur Telecom Valley
1. “Accelerating Innovation
Globally”
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Mark Harris
Intel® Director Higher Education & Research
Europe, Middle East, Africa
2. Global Challenges and Policy
Responses Policy Responses
Global Challenges Urgency “Climate policy must be based on
sound science. We know
"We have less than what the problem is. We know what
10 years to halt the we must do. Now is the time to do
it. Now is our moment.
global rise in greenhouse
gas emissions if we are to Need for We need a deal in Copenhagen that
avoid catastrophic will enable deep cuts in emissions,
consequences for people Innovation that promotes green growth, that
that will provide the resources and
and the planet. It is,
simply, the greatest structures needed for adaptation.
collective challenge we We will pay a high price if we do not
face as a human family.“ act and if we do not invest now. The
cost of inaction today will be far
(39th plenary assembly of greater than the cost of action
the World Federation of tomorrow, not just [for] future
United Nations generations, but for this generation
Associations, 10th August too.”
2009) (World Climate Conference,
Geneva, 3rd September 2009)
Ban Ki-moon
6. Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941,
photo by W.O. Field
Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004,
photo by B.F. Molnia
7. Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period Rate
Years /decade
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
17. Kofi Annan 2000
One of the greatest success stories of modern times is
the increasing number of people living into old age
However this triumph of humanity is also one of our
greatest challenges
18. Demographic Ageing is
changing our world …..now
……
By 2050, 21 percent of the world population—
nearly 2 billion people—will be 60 and older
Source: United Nations “Population ageing 2002” 18
19. United Nations Projected Percentages
of Global Population
20
Actual Projected
15
Age 65+
% of Global Population
10
Age <5
5
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Source: World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision, Annex 2 (low-variant projection). UN Population Division.
20. The demographic causes of global population ageing:
Total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth:
World, 1950-2050
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Total fertility rate (births per woman)
7 80
6
60
5
4
40
3
2
20
To tal fertility rate
1
Life expectancy at birth
0 0
19 50 - 55 19 75- 8 0 2 0 0 0 - 0 5 2 0 2 5- 3 0 2 0 4 5- 50
23. Health care
spending
over the next
100 years?
At the historic growth rate,
health care will consume
an ever-growing proportion
of the developed nations‟
wealth, reaching 30 percent
of GDP in the United
States in 2040 and 30
percent of the median
OECD GDP by 2070.
Source: McKinsey Quarterly September 2008
24. The already acute economic pressures healthcare
spending places on society will grow
A significant part of an average person‟s health care spending throughout life occurs in its
second half, especially the last two years. In many countries, the tax-financed part of health
care represents a massive transfer from young taxpayers to older health care users.
Source: McKinsey Quarterly September 2008
26. Security
•Using ICT to communicate we leave data all over the
internet.
•At the moment the data is fragmented, but consolidation
is more and more possible and happening.
•For data security the data needs to be validated and the
owner needs to have control of the flow.
•Our medical records, driving records, sick leave, buying
tendancies, our bank account data etc. could otherwise
be bartered over the internet.
•Security raises many challenges caused by the ever
increasing usage of ICT, but can also be solved through
ICT together with the right EU/Global policies.
27. These are Big Global Challenges, but
also Big global Opportunities !
Global Warming Ageing Society
Energy Public Health
Water/Food Security
…
28. Revolutionary versus Evolutionary
Innovation
To address these challenges we need to
accelerate Innovation.
We need to move from a sustained
innovation model (evolutionary) to a
revolutionary model.
29. The Innovators Dilemma
The Impact of Sustaining and Disruptive Technological Change
Revolution
P
Product Performance
Performance
Demanded At the high
end of the market
Performance
Demanded At the low
end of the market
Disruptive
Technological
innovation
t
Source: The Innovator„s Dilemma
Clayton M. Christensen
30. The Innovators Dilemma (Revolutionary)
Revolutionary
Innovation
P
Product Performance
Performance
Demanded At the high
end of the market
Performance
Demanded At the low
end of the market
Disruptive
Technological
innovation
t
31. Opportunity and Challenge
Observations: Entrepreneurship
• EU 2020 declaration highly EU 2020 Initiative
focussed (#1 issue) on Criteria US Europe Comparison Comment
innovation and Economies in
entrepreneurship. GDP 14.2 T$ 16.18 T$ same Ballpark
• Invention (ideas,patents ) is
Europe invents
good, but commercialization is Domestic Patents
82000 135000
+65% more (actually much
more because no SW patents in
not. (2009) Europe, CII)
• Very low VC activity in EU Europe only ~
(1/8th US), huge equity GAP VC activity(Q1‟2010) 4810M$ 632M$ 1/8th the VC
• Attitude of entrepreneurship
% of population that US is 50%
and failure not being an option consider 67% 45% higher
a big hindering factor. entrepreneurship
• Need to catch-up on some 20+ % of Population that
13% 4.5%
US is 289%
higher
become entrepreneurs
years of entrepreneurship
education % of population that US 40%
• Need to broaden where and accept possible failure
in a startup
75% 54% higher
how entrepreneurship is taught Trying to catch
• Need to get EU success rates Entrepreneurship
1980‟s Early 2000‟s
up 20-25years
of Education
Education since
(20%) close to US (30%). and attitude
Programs in
HE and now
Breadth (# types) 8 1-2
starting in K12
32. Additional Challenges for Informatics !
from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' new 10-years
forecast of job growth
"... among ALL occupations in ALL fields of science and
engineering, computer science occupations are projected to
account for nearly 60% of ALL job growth between now and
2018."
reported in Comm.ACM, 53(3), Mar.2010, p.17
34. Technology Entrepreneurship in
EMEA
Since 2005 in EMEA:
•600+ Technical Faculty
trained on Technology
Entrepreneurship
•180+ Faculty trained to
be Train-the-trainers
•3 Regional annual
BizPlan competitions with
over 300 Finalists and
10000‟s of Plans
submitted
35. Technology Entrepreneurship & Innovation
MSc Discipline
Innovation Financial
Student Management Management
Company In IT And Venture
~60 hrs ~75 hrs Funds
Marketing ~75 hrs
Strategies for Organizational
High-Tech Behavior
Companies ~60 hrs
~60 hrs
Technology
Customer Entrepreneurship E-Commerce
Relationship & Innovation Fundamentals
Management
MSc ~60 hrs
~60 hrs
~105 hrs
Knowledge
Management
And E-Government
Technology Fundamentals
Transfer ~60hrs
~60 hrs
Project Legal Issues
Strategy and
Management Management E-Business
~60 hrs ~60 hrs
~60 hrs
41. Risk Factors
The above statements and any others in this document that refer to plans and expectations for the third quarter, the year and the future are
forward-looking statements that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect Intel‟s actual results, and variances from
Intel‟s current expectations regarding such factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking
statements. Intel presently considers the following to be the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the
corporation‟s expectations. Ongoing uncertainty in global economic conditions pose a risk to the overall economy as consumers and businesses
may defer purchases in response to tighter credit and negative financial news, which could negatively affect product demand and other related
matters. Consequently, demand could be different from Intel's expectations due to factors including changes in business and economic
conditions, including conditions in the credit market that could affect consumer confidence; customer acceptance of Intel‟s and competitors‟
products; changes in customer order patterns including order cancellations; and changes in the level of inventory at customers. Intel operates in
intensely competitive industries that are characterized by a high percentage of costs that are fixed or difficult to reduce in the short term and
product demand that is highly variable and difficult to forecast. Additionally, Intel is in the process of transitioning to its next generation of products
on 32nm process technology, and there could be execution issues associated with these changes, including product defects and errata along with
lower than anticipated manufacturing yields. Revenue and the gross margin percentage are affected by the timing of new Intel product
introductions and the demand for and market acceptance of Intel's products; actions taken by Intel's competitors, including product offerings and
introductions, marketing programs and pricing pressures and Intel‟s response to such actions; and Intel‟s ability to respond quickly to technological
developments and to incorporate new features into its products. The gross margin percentage could vary significantly from expectations based on
changes in revenue levels; capacity utilization; start-up costs, including costs associated with the new 32nm process technology; variations in
inventory valuation, including variations related to the timing of qualifying products for sale; excess or obsolete inventory; product mix and pricing;
manufacturing yields; changes in unit costs; impairments of long-lived assets, including manufacturing, assembly/test and intangible assets; and
the timing and execution of the manufacturing ramp and associated costs. Expenses, particularly certain marketing and compensation expenses,
as well as restructuring and asset impairment charges, vary depending on the level of demand for Intel's products and the level of revenue and
profits. The current financial stress affecting the banking system and financial markets and the going concern threats to investment banks and
other financial institutions have resulted in a tightening in the credit markets, a reduced level of liquidity in many financial markets, and heightened
volatility in fixed income, credit and equity markets. There could be a number of follow-on effects from the credit crisis on Intel‟s business,
including insolvency of key suppliers resulting in product delays; inability of customers to obtain credit to finance purchases of our products and/or
customer insolvencies; counterparty failures negatively impacting our treasury operations; increased expense or inability to obtain short-term
financing of Intel‟s operations from the issuance of commercial paper; and increased impairments from the inability of investee companies to
obtain financing. The majority of our non-marketable equity investment portfolio balance is concentrated in companies in the flash memory market
segment, and declines in this market segment or changes in management‟s plans with respect to our investments in this market segment could
result in significant impairment charges, impacting restructuring charges as well as gains/losses on equity investments and interest and other.
Intel's results could be impacted by adverse economic, social, political and physical/infrastructure conditions in countries where Intel, its customers
or its suppliers operate, including military conflict and other security risks, natural disasters, infrastructure disruptions, health concerns and
fluctuations in currency exchange rates. Intel's results could be affected by adverse effects associated with product defects and errata (deviations
from published specifications), and by litigation or regulatory matters involving intellectual property, stockholder, consumer, antitrust and other
issues, such as the litigation and regulatory matters described in Intel's SEC reports. A detailed discussion of these and other risk factors that
could affect Intel‟s results is included in Intel‟s SEC filings, including the report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 27, 2009.
Rev. 7/27/09