How we bring future technology concepts to life for the Münchner Kreis Future Study.

1. Finding faster growth: new products and services
Picture this
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2. Picture this
Visualisation is providing ICT researchers
with vital insights as to the real potential
of futuristic technologies and the barriers
that must be overcome if consumers are
to embrace them enthusiastically.
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3. Picture this
the more difficult it therefore is for researchers to guide
the R&D process. ICT development may take place
“Your scientists were so preoccupied in an ivory tower – but it is not an ivory tower of the
developers’ own making.
with whether they could that they The fourth phase of the Münchner Kreis Future Study,
didn’t stop to think if they should.”
an annual research programme conducted by TNS on
behalf of major German and international companies
and institutions, tackles the conundrum of generating
meaningful data on consumer attitudes head-on. The
study’s previous three phases had focused on qualitative
This dire warning issued by Jeff Goldblum’s Those forces are a greater mystery for those working in and quantitative surveys of ICT experts, both within
mathematician character in the film Jurassic Park has ICT than for many other sectors. With no actual personal Germany and internationally, in order to establish the
a special resonance for those working in R&D for the experience to draw upon, it is difficult for consumers potential for incremental innovation across the ICT and
ICT industry. The role of ICT development teams is to to give meaningful answers about their attitudes to, media industries. Armed with such insights, the Future
establish what is possible, to map where technology and potential use of previously unimaginable solutions. Study for 2011 turned its attentions to the question
could go next. Yet the question of where technology The further the ICT industry stares into the future, the of which innovative technologies have the greatest
should go remains largely outside their control, governed more difficult it is for consumers to imagine the role potential for consumer uptake in the future, identifying
above all by the mysterious forces of consumer demand. that putative technologies could or could not play – and potential barriers and the preconditions necessary for
successful launches.
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4. Picture this
Feeding the consumer imagination
To overcome the problem of relating never-before-
seen technology to current consumer experiences,
the researchers turned to visualisation. Leveraging
the insights from previous phases, they developed 16
‘Pictures of the Future’ to illustrate how incremental
innovation and the application of technologies in new
combinations and categories, could potentially impact
on consumer experiences.
Each of the 16 pictures consisted of an image and
accompanying description that translated complex,
technical visions into everyday language. Importantly,
these pictorial concepts linked futuristic ideas to
relevant, known functions and services – a form of visual
shorthand that ensured greater meaning for the survey
respondents. The pictures were developed for a range
of seven different life situations: Living, staying healthy,
maintaining mobility, consumption and payment,
entertainment and storage, learning and knowledge Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’
and work and organisation.
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5. Picture this
In this way, consumers were asked to imagine scenarios
in which on-demand cars automatically delivered
themselves to the locations where they were required,
dealings with city services took place wholly online,
energy-using devices in the home turned themselves
off and on according the availability of renewable-
sourced electricity and ICT solutions took over the job of
monitoring patients’ health in the home, replacing more
regular contact with doctors.
The sample group of 7,231 participants, evenly spread
across Germany, Sweden, the USA, Brazil, China and
Korea, were asked to identify the aspects of different
pictures that they viewed positively or critically. They
then answered further questions on issues such as
their willingness to pay for the services, and their
expectations as to when they should become available.
Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’
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6. Picture this
Key themes and concerns Willingness to pay
Across markets a number of key themes emerged from Consumers no longer expect ICT solutions to be
the participants’ responses, providing vital insight into delivered for free, however willingness to pay varies
the overriding concerns of consumers – and the issues considerably by region and the type of solution offered.
that technology companies must address if they are to Consumers are most willing to pay where solutions
launch services successfully in the future. offer comprehensive new services rather than simply
information.
Privacy protection
Consumer fears about the unauthorised storage and Trust in ICT
criminal misuse of their data confirm the importance A lack of trust in ICT solutions represents one of the
of firmly embedded, credibly enforced data and privacy most significant challenges for those in business, science
protection rules as a necessary precondition if ICT and politics who seek to launch new technologies.
solutions are to be adopted by mainstream consumers. Consumers worldwide expressed fears about system
outages, services becoming unavailable and data
User friendliness becoming lost. Prior experience of unreliable or
Ease of use is a given in consumer expectations of immature solutions appears to be a major contributory
ICT solutions. Any technology provider must ensure factor here. A new approach to beta-testing and new
simplicity and accessibility if they are to launch services forms of system design, clearly communicated to
successfully. Across sectors, the most successful ICT potential users, may be essential for the take-up of new
products set new standards in this area. technologies in many areas.
Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’
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7. Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’
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8. Picture this
Enthusiasm and scepticism: Picturing future opportunities excessive costs and unreliable technology. A broader,
key geographical differences Despite the reservations that potential providers must well-defined support network for those living at home
To a significant degree, potential consumers in China, overcome, the study highlighted significant areas of appears to be an essential starting point for such
Korea and Brazil proved consistently more positive opportunity for ICT, where solutions to different life solutions in European markets.
in their view of the potential for ICT solutions, their situations are likely to engender healthy consumer
willingness to pay for them, and their trust in the demand across different markets. Staying healthy
capability of the solutions to deliver on their promises. When it came to the role of technology in keeping
These findings suggest that ICT companies in markets Living consumers healthy, applications to help users
such as Germany, Sweden and the USA, which enjoy The ‘automatic energy manager’, a ‘picture of the communicate more effectively with doctors were
ready access to the skills required to develop innovative future’ that invited respondents to imagine a system met with far greater enthusiasm than those that
solutions, may need to target these technologies first for automatically controlling energy use in the home to transmitted data to doctors automatically. Greater
at emerging markets before re-importing them to their match the availability of renewable electricity sources, levels of trust in technology and those providing
home territories. highlighted the need for more transparency on energy tele-monitoring services are essential if autonomous
pricing and better communication of the finite nature technology is to take more of the initiative in the
of resources, in order to drive consumer take-up. monitoring of medical conditions – although these
reservations were far more pronounced in the
The notion of ‘healthcare assistants’, devices that European and US markets than in China, Korea and
enable people to live independently at home in old Brazil. Interestingly, users are far more inclined to pay
age, found a large, receptive market in China but was for tele-monitoring services when tangible hardware is
Consumers in China, Korea and Brazil proved consistently met with some scepticism in Europe, where potential involved – providing vital insights on how to package
more positive in their view of the potential for ICT solutions users expressed concern over loss of social contacts, such solutions effectively for consumer take-up.
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9. Picture this
Maintaining mobility deliver on its promises emerged in Europe and the USA, Brazil and Korea. The concepts of mobile shopping and
In the field of mobility, the ‘pictures of the future’ whereas consumers in China, Brazil and Korea showed mobile wallets are welcomed, although with significant
approach revealed strong potential interest in immediate interest. reservations about the security of payment details and
solutions that solve well-established consumer needs. personal data. End-to-end digital banking services,
Respondents were asked to imagine personal mobility Consumption and payment which remove the need to open accounts in person,
assistants, which provide end-to-end support in planning Across markets, consumers recognise the value of new were met with enthusiasm in Sweden, Brazil, Korea and
and conducting long-distance trips, automatically payment options, with users in the USA and Europe China, whereas users in the USA and Germany doubted
booking tickets and making reservations; networked more cautious about the benefits than those in China, whether such a solution would ever be feasible.
vehicles that use ambient communications technology
to detect hazards and avoid traffic; and autonomous
vehicles, available on demand, which drive themselves
to the point where a user requests them.
As with many other scenarios, the key to mainstream
take-up of such technologies rests on packaging
them in a way that can overcome reluctance to pay,
and building up trust in relevant technologies and
technology providers to the extent that consumers have
faith in them to take control, whether in spending their
money on travel reservations and bookings or deciding
when to brake. When it came to the concept of an
autonomous car making itself available on-demand,
Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’
familiar scepticism as to the capability of technology to
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10. Picture this
Entertainment and storage Work and organisation concept of an online data manager that could give
The concept of a lifetime data safe, providing reliable, The ‘pictures of the future’ developed around the users direct control over access to their data, provided
secure storage of digital content that can then be theme of ‘work and organisation’ involve consumers trust could first be established for any provider of the
accessed from anywhere, proved a popular ‘picture of dealing directly with the issues of security and service. There was also recognition of the benefits
the future’ across markets, fitting with the long-term personal privacy that form potential barriers to take- of a digital city service office that could move many
trend towards the digital storage and consumption of up of many ICT solutions. Key insights to emerge of consumers’ dealings with municipalities into the
content. The concept of a personal TV, enabling users from the study include strong appetite for the online space.
to view on a range of devices, at any time or place
that suits them, also met with enthusiasm, although
reservations emerged as to potentially complicated user
experiences. For future providers of such services, clear
and simple functionality is essential.
Learning and knowledge
Innovative forms of teaching and learning are an area of
great opportunity for ICT solutions, reflecting growing
consumer demand for continuous learning. Participants
responded positively when asked to picture an electronic
textbook, which could enable independent, networked
learning for adults or cut down on the weight of books
in schoolchildren’s bags. Concerns about cost and data
privacy, especially where children are concerned, are the
major barriers for potential providers to address.
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11. Picture this
New opportunities, new challenges For its next phase, in 2012, the Future Study will A ‘trend landscape’ will be compiled, mapping
The expert-focused previous phases of the Future continue to focus on the user, leveraging the out consumers’ priority needs going forward. By
Study had already demonstrated the speed with insights provided through the Pictures of the identifying areas of strong demand for innovation,
which ICT is transforming consumer experiences. Future to ask detailed questions about daily life the study will provide insights on adapting solutions
In helping potential users to imagine ICT playing a experiences and ideal requirements for technology. to future consumer priorities.
role in previously unimaginable situations, the fourth
phase of the study has highlighted wholly new
opportunities for growth. At the same time, though,
it revealed significant barriers to adoption that
companies or governments must address in order to
prepare the ground for such technologies to enter
the mainstream. In enabling meaningful consumer
responses to futuristic scenarios, the Pictures of the
Future approach has a vital role to play in informing
the R&D process and providing a regular sounding
board that can continue to link developing concepts
to potential future demand.
Examples of ‘Pictures of the Future’
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12. About InFocus
InFocus is part of a regular series of articles that takes an in-depth look at a particular subject, region or
demographic in more detail. All articles are written by TNS consultants and based on their expertise gathered
through working on client assignments in over 80 markets globally, with additional insights gained through
TNS proprietary studies, such as Digital Life and Mobile Life. About the authors
About TNS Dr. Malthe Wolf is Director of the Future Research Centre
TNS advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and at TNS Germany. Malthe specialises in technology and
stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence media, working with clients from all sectors interested
in how ICT and new media will influence our future.
in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands
He and his team continue to pioneer new methodologies
individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. for assessing the impact of future developments.
TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world’s largest insight, information and consultancy groups.
Stefanie Sagl is Senior Consultant in the Future Research
Please visit www.tnsglobal.com for more information. Centre at TNS Germany. Stefanie is also a technology
and media specialist, with specific expertise in
Get in touch implementing syndicated studies.
If you would like to talk to us about anything you have read in this report, please get in touch
via enquiries@tnsglobal.com or via Twitter @tns_global
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