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Transition management agendasetting IST13
- 1. Transition management past and future Dr. Derk Loorbach IST Zurich, 21-06-2013
- 2. What is transition management? • Way to think about and act upon agency in transitions • Governance theory and framework • Operationalized method and set of systemic instruments
- 3. 2000-2010
- 4. Policy sciences Sustainable Development Complexity theory Sociology Technology studies 1980 s 2000 Modeling Multi-level Multi fase TM Climate research Onzerkerh. Klimaat modellen Scene IA structuratie management SCOT Transitie Niche CTA History Innovation studies 1990 s Multi-level Multi-fase Uncertainty. CAS Scaling Climate models 3P governance IA Structuration Management SCOT Transition Niche CTA Uncertainty Transition Management
- 5. TM 1.0 Monitoring, evaluating and learning Developing images coalitions and transition- agendas Mobilizing actors and executing projects and experiments Problem structuring, establishment of the transition arena and envisioning society Transition arenaRegular policy arena - Short term - Peloton - Incremental change - Problem- and goal oriented - Long term - Frontrunners - System-innovation - Problem- and goal searching Predevelopment-based: Creating space Problem structuring/envisioning Experimentation Toolls/instruments
- 6. Theoretical evolution (1) • Complex systems perspective on transition dynamics (De Haan & Rotmans 2011, De Haan 2010, Loorbach et al. 2012, Loorbach and Frantzeskaki 2012, Frantzeskaki & De Haan 2009,) • Integrated sustainability assessment (Grosskurth & Rotmans 2005, Rotmans 2006, Rotmans et al. 2008) • TM in relation to sustainability governance and policy design (Frantzeskaki et al. 2012a, Loorbach et al 2011, Avelino 2009) • Participatory methods for transition management (Van den Bosch & Rotmans 2008, Wittmayer et al. 2009, Sondeijker 2009, Van den Bosch 2010, Frantzeskaki et al 2012c, Roorda et al. 2012, Taanman et al. 2012) • Urban innovation processes (Loorbach 2009, Frantzeskaki et al. 2012b, Wittmayer et al. 2012, Roorda et al. 2012, Roorda 2012, Van Steenbergen et al. 2012, Lodder & Krosse 2012)
- 7. Theoretical evolution (2) • Analyses of sectoral transitions: energy (Loorbach & Verbong 2012), mobility (Zijlstra & Avelino 2012, Avelino et al. 2012), health care (Van Raak & De Haan forthcoming), water (Van der Brugge 2009, Frantzeskaki 2011), and infrasystems (Frantzeskaki & Loorbach 2010) • Grassroots innovations, social movements, social economy and self- organisation (Avelino & Kunze 2009, Wittmayer 2011, Avelino et al. 2012) • Transitions in relation to socio-ecological resilience and biodiversity (Van der Brugge & Van Raak 2007, Van der Brugge 2009, Westley et al. 2011, Frantzeskaki 2011) • Power, politics, discourse and other critical engagements with transition studies (Jhagroe 2011, Avelino 2011, Jhagroe & Wijsman 2011, Eshuis, et al. 2012, Van Steenbergen & Wittmayer 2012, Wittmayer 2012, Jhagroe & Frantzeskaki 2012) • Transition perspectives on the economic crisis (Lijnis Huffenreuter 2012) and the role of business (Wijsman & Loorbach 2012)
- 8. Tools TM 1.0 SCENE patterns actor analysis problem analysis TRANSCE reflexive monitoring monitoring framework trans. indicators MLP DBU Deepening, broadening, upscaling transitioning actor selection expert-arena system analysis arena agendaexperiments evaluation TM multiple participatory tools
- 9. 2010-2020
- 10. 20 culturele organisaties > 100.000 bezoekers Transitie UGent 38.000 studenten 7.100 staf Onderzoek biogas uit GFT Mobiliteitsarena 938 mobbers Begeleidingstraject KMO’s KLIMAAT- ARENA Inspiratie partijprogramma’s Klimaatwerkgroep stadslandbouw KWG EE in bedrijven KWG valorisatie rioolwater en GFT KWG Kunstsector KWG mobiliteit KWG consument duwt markt Onderzoek ESCO’s (in opstart) CEIP meets GMS
- 11. Transition Networks Transition Experiments Transition Arena Phase III Framing the transition Phase IV Envisioning a sustainable city Phase V Reconnecting long term & short term Phase VI Going into action Transition Team Phase I Setting the scene Phase II Exploring dynamics Phase VII Engaging & anchoring
- 12. Diversity Emergence Discourse Conflicts Pathways Lock-in First movers Diversity Emergence Discourse Conflicts Pathways Lock-in First movers Boundary shifting & reconnecting Storylines shifting and new emerge Spawning & Multiplying Dampening Legitimacy Inclusivity Diversity Scalability Speed of change Justice Time Glocal Legitimacy Inclusivity Diversity Scalability Speed of change Justice Time Glocal Predevelopment selection zone Acceleration
- 13. Tools TM 2.0 tipping point ethics transition potential community engagement communiciation & discourse financing (e.g. joint purchase) empowerment coalition building business cases cost-benefit system analysis arena agendaexperiments evaluation TM power analysis institutionalization power strategy social movement
- 15. What’s going on? predevelopment take-off acceleration stabilisation Based on Rotmans et al, 2001 System breakdown Lock-in Some argue we are here But perhaps we’re here… Or here …?
- 16. Transition lock-in? • Transition field established, dominated by socio-technical regime • Different ‘schools’ hardly interact/exchange/cocreate • We are stuck in optimising the established regime • Lack of strategy to really impact science, policy and society together
- 17. Escaping the lock-in • Celebrate the diversity, make intellectual tensions explicit and use them • Kill our darlings: no more multiplying MLP, TIS, TM, SNM • Strategize – Global database of transition experiments/social innovation – Face up to external (science/policy) regimes and destabilize – Create global transition network based on existing hubs – New themes: socio-economic domain, transition in science, policy transition, … – Our mission: a world in transition?