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Special Report

Goals-Based Asset Allocation
A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy




January 2007
Goals-Based Asset Allocation
A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy




 Prepared by:                              Table of Contents
 Ronald Florance, CFA                      Asset Allocation—A Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
 Director of Asset Allocation & Strategy   Prudent Efficient Frontiers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
 Editorial Review:                         Hypothetical Goal: Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
                                           Hypothetical Goal: Vacation Home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
 Dean A. Junkans, CFA
                                           Hypothetical Goal: Philanthropic Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
 PCS Chief Investment Officer
                                           Hypothetical Goal: Wonderful Retirement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
 Anne Symanovich                           Goals-Based Optimization and Asset Allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
 Senior Analyst




                                                                                                                                 January 2007
Goals-Based Asset Allocation
A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy



Asset allocation is the cornerstone of sound investment strategy. Unfortunately, too many times, the asset allocation
process involves complicated risk analysis with little concern for your goals or real investment requirements. In
traditional asset allocation, risk is measured by annualized standard deviation, though most investors do not define
personal investment risk in this way. For that reason, standard deviation is not always a good measure of an investor’s
intuitive risk tolerance. An asset allocation approach solely based on standard deviation may lead to inappropriate
investment strategies because it fails to take an investor’s unique goals into consideration. A goals-based approach to
risk tolerance can lead to investment strategies that are better suited to your specific wealth goals and behavioral
finance risk tolerances.1

Traditional asset allocation is based on asset class optimiza-                       achieve tangible goals, such as paying for children’s education,
tion. It asks the question: how can different asset classes be                       making charitable contributions, or funding retirement.
combined to make the return-to-risk relationship as favorable                        Looking at the greater picture, which includes your wealth
as possible? Note that there is no reference to client goals.                        objectives and goals-based risk tolerance, can lead to a much
A goals-based approach takes into account a client’s unique                          more satisfying asset allocation and investment strategy.
definition of risk, required return, and success. An investor’s
broader satisfaction is based on more than the return/risk
                                                                                     Asset Allocation—A Review
relationship.
                                                                                     Asset allocation is the process of combining different
This report takes a different approach. We want to use the
                                                                                     investment vehicles into a portfolio that addresses an
sophisticated science of Modern Portfolio Theory and
                                                                                     investor’s risk and return requirements. Traditional asset
mathematical optimization, but within a context that is
                                                                                     allocation involves determining an investor’s risk tolerance,
focused on your unique investment goals. At Wells Fargo
                                                                                     and then—based on that—finding the investment mix that
Private Client Services (PCS), we take a client-centric or
                                                                                     has the greatest potential for return. This is done through an
goals-based approach to developing your investment
                                                                                     optimization process, which maximizes the return-to-risk
strategy. By focusing on your investment goals, we can create
                                                                                     relationship. Let’s review the fundamentals of asset allocation
an investment strategy tailored to your specific wealth needs.
                                                                                     before addressing goals-based vs. risk-based optimization.
Identifying desired return, minimum acceptable return, and
investment time frame leads to an asset allocation designed                          The asset allocation process starts with capital market
for your financial goals with a more realistic risk tolerance than                   assumptions for each asset class that is available in your
traditional standard deviation analysis.                                             investable universe. These assumptions are not intended to
                                                                                     predict the future but rather, to put in perspective realistic
This process relies on you, the investor, being able to articulate
                                                                                     expectations of potential investment risk and return traits.
the real needs you have for your investment portfolio.
                                                                                     The capital market assumptions include hypothetical return,
Satisfaction generally does not come from simply maximizing
                                                                                     hypothetical risk, and correlation. Return is measured as
return or minimizing risk. A study of behavioral finance
                                                                                     annualized total return, with risk measured by annualized
revealed that investors are not focused on statistics to define
                                                                                     standard deviation of returns. The correlations measure how
investment satisfaction.1 In fact, few clients articulate risk in
                                                                                     much diversification you get by adding a specific asset
terms of annualized standard deviations. Investors tend to
                                                                                     class to the existing mix. A low correlation helps to add
think of risk in terms of minimum wealth level or probability of
                                                                                     diversification and reduce total portfolio risk.
losing money. True satisfaction comes from having a portfolio




1
    Wells Fargo Special Report, Asset Allocation for Real World Investors, 2006

                                                                                  Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 1
The Wells Fargo PCS Asset Allocation Team has developed a                                                Prudent Efficient Frontiers
set of capital market assumptions. Below is a table that high-
                                                                                                         Each of the two efficient frontiers represents a different
lights our multiple market-cycle (10–15 years) expectations for
                                                                                                         investable universe. The more diverse the universe, the better
selected asset classes.
                                                                                                         the risk/return tradeoffs available to the investor. Additionally,
Selected Capital Market Assumptions                                                                      different clients have other efficient frontiers due to the
                                                                                                         unique restrictions or constraints they have put on their
                                                                   Hypothetical
                                                                       Risk                              investment portfolios. These restrictions may be cash
                                              Hypothetical          (Standard           Sharpe           requirements, concentrated stock holdings, social investing
     Asset Class                                Return            Deviation [%])        Ratio*           requirements, or other investment concerns. Our two efficient
     Inflation                                    2.75                   —               —               frontiers represent portfolios with and without alternative
     Intermediate-Term                            5.00                   5.50            0.32            investments,2 which are defined as hedge funds,3 private
     Taxable Bonds                                                                                       equity, real estate, and commodities. Your specific efficient
     Long-Term Taxable Bonds                      5.75                   8.25            0.30            frontier will be different, depending on the restrictions that
                                                                                                         you require. We call this a “prudent efficient frontier.”
     U.S. Large Cap Core                          8.75                   15.00           0.37
     International Developed                      9.00                   15.50           0.37            Now that we have established an efficient frontier, we need to
     Markets Equity                                                                                      determine where your appropriate portfolio lies along this
     Commodities                                  8.75                   14.50           0.38            frontier. The risk-based approach uses a risk-tolerance
                                                                                                         questionnaire designed to assess your attitudes toward risk.
* The Sharpe ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted returns:                                                The profilers come in many forms, but generally they include
     hypothetical return – hypothetical risk-free rate                                                   10-15 questions addressing your attitude toward capital loss,
            hypothetical standard deviation
                                                                                                         volatility, and liquidity needs. Your responses are scored on a
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06                                                                           risk-tolerance scale, and you are assigned a risk range, defined
                                                                                                         by annualized standard deviation of returns.
By using an optimization process, we can combine these
                                                                                                         Efficient Frontier Analysis
asset classes into “efficient portfolios.” Efficiency is defined
as maximizing hypothetical return, given each level of                                                                10
                                                                                                                               Two-Asset Groups
hypothetical risk. The set of these portfolios along the risk                                                                  Four-Asset Groups
spectrum represent the efficient frontier. The chart below                                                             9

shows the two efficient frontiers that Wells Fargo PCS uses for
                                                                                                                       8
developing asset allocation strategies.
                                                                                                         Return (%)




Efficient Frontier Analysis                                                                                            7

             10                                                                                                        6
                      Two-Asset Groups
                      Four-Asset Groups
              9                                                                                                        5

              8                                                                                                        4
                                                                                                                           4      6                8            10              12   14   16
Return (%)




              7                                                                                                                                        Standard Deviation (%)
                                                                                                         Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
              6

                                                                                                         On the efficient frontier above, your sample risk tolerance
              5
                                                                                                         range is highlighted. Your optimal strategic asset allocation is
                                                                                                         generally represented by the portfolio that falls in the middle
              4
                  4      6                8              10              12        14            16      of this risk range. While the risk-based optimization approach
                                                Standard Deviation (%)                                   is very effective in maximizing the risk-return relationship, it
Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06                                                                           may not address your specific investment goals or goals-
                                                                                                         based risk tolerance. Interestingly, many investors have a
                                                                                                         significant disconnect between their attitudes toward risk and
                                                                                                         the return requirements of their investment portfolios.

2
    Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified investors only.
3
    Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only.

                                                                                                      Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 2
One of the biggest problems facing investors is emotional risk.         Today, the portfolio is worth $160,000, and your asset allocation is:
When things go bad, investors often make short-term
                                                                        Original Portfolio
decisions that can be detrimental to the long-term success of
the portfolio. When markets go down because of short-term                            International
                                                                                     Emerging-Markets
trading reactions, some investors sell and wait for the rebound.                     Equity 5%
This is classic market timing of selling low and buying high. On                     International
the flip side, investors have been known to pile assets into the                     Developed-Markets
                                                                                     Equity 20%
”theme du jour” for fear of missing the party, while knowing                                                                                                       U.S. Large Cap 55%
that all rational valuation measures tell them not to. Because                       U.S. Small Cap 8%
this usually occurs just before a very painful correction,
investors end up buying high and selling low. The goals-based                        U.S. Mid Cap 12%

approach reduces the chance that short-term emotions will
derail your long-term strategy because it focuses on long-term          Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
goals rather than short-term market swings.
By using a goals-based approach, you can reduce the chances             In taking a goals-based approach to developing your investment
of this disconnect between risk tolerance, potential invest-            strategy, a disconnect between the risk you are taking and the
ment return, and investment goals. Following are hypothetical           risk you need to take becomes obvious. You have stated that
scenarios that use a goals-based optimization approach to               this portfolio’s value needs to be $200,000 in four years. Given
develop asset allocation and investment strategies.                     its current value of $160,000, the required annual rate of return
                                                                        to achieve your goal is about 5.75%. You also noted that your
                                                                        minimum acceptable return is 0%, or no loss of principal.
Hypothetical Goal: Education
                                                                        Using our efficient frontier chart below, you see that you are
Your daughter has just started her freshman year in high                taking much more risk than is necessary to achieve your goal.
school, reminding you that her college tuition bills will start in      Why is this bad? Because risk has two sides: an upside and a
just four years. You have been saving and investing in a 529            downside. More risk means more chance for both. If you
plan in anticipation of this responsibility. In speaking with your      experience downside risk in the next four years, there is not
financial professional and planner, you have determined that            enough time to recover the losses before your daughter starts
you will need about $200,000 in four years to cover her total           college. Why take unnecessary risk?
college costs.
                                                                        Efficient Frontier Analysis
You’re a long-time investor and are comfortable with a
                                                                                     10
moderately high level of risk in your investment portfolios.                                                                                                       Original Portfolio
In the past few years, the markets have performed well,
                                                                                      9
increasing the value of your riskier investments. You would like
to achieve the $200,000 value, but don’t want to lose a lot of
                                                                                      8
money, as you don’t have much time to recoup losses. You
                                                                        Return (%)




also know that any shortfall at this point can be addressed                           7                                                                               Risk-Based
through student loans.
                                                                                      6                        Suggested Portfolio
Investment Goal: Education                                                                     Education
                                                                                              Goal-Based
                                                                                      5
 Stated Risk Tolerance                     High
 Goals-Based Risk Requirement              Low                                        4
                                                                                          4                6                 8                10              12          14            16
 Required Return                           5.75%
                                                                                                                                     Standard Deviation (%)
 Minimum Acceptable Return                 0.00%                        Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
 Investment Time Frame                     4–8 years
                                                                        The risk of a portfolio designed with the potential return goal
                                                                        of 5.75% is significantly lower than the current risk in your
                                                                        portfolio, and has an average expected return in line with the
                                                                        $200,000 goal. Because of the lower level of risk of this
                                                                        portfolio, there is less of a chance of falling below your
                                                                        minimum acceptable return.



                                                                     Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 3
By optimizing for your goal, we are able to develop the                      To achieve your goal of $300,000, you’ll need about 13.50% of
asset allocation below, which is designed to achieve your                    annual return. Our efficient frontier chart below shows that
investment objective, while reducing the chance of failure                   this is an extremely ambitious return goal for a portfolio,
defined by your goals-based risk tolerance. This is the power                especially with the relatively short investment time frame.
of goals-based optimization.                                                 Though a portfolio may achieve this return level in some
                                                                             years, requiring this return year after year is probably
Education Goal-Based Suggestion
                                                                             unreasonable. There is a good chance that a portfolio will not
    High-Yield Bonds 8%                              U.S. Large Cap 11%      grow to the required size. In this case, you need to re-evaluate
                                                     U.S. Mid Cap 2%         your goal. Adjustments can be made to either the size of the
    Long-Term Bonds 12%                              U.S. Small Cap 2%
                                                     International
                                                                             cabin, or the timing of the construction. Either approach can
                                                     Developed-Markets       reduce the required return to the portfolio. The goals-based
                                                     Equity 4%
                                                     International           approach highlights how realistic the goal is in relation to the
                                                     Emerging-Markets
                                                     Equity 1%               investment opportunities available.
    Intermediate-Term
    Bonds 45%                                        Short-Term
                                                     Bonds 15%               Efficient Frontier Analysis

                                                                                          14                               Goal-Based Requirement

Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06                                                            13
                                                                                                   Two-Asset Groups
                                                                                          12       Four-Asset Groups

All portfolios have uncertainty. For this reason, you need to                             11

meet with your financial professional regularly to review and                             10
monitor your portfolio’s actual performance, any change in                                 9
your goals, and rebalancing actions that are required.
                                                                                           8
                                                                             Return (%)




                                                                                           7
Hypothetical Goal: Vacation Home                                                           6

You spent many happy days camping out in a tent in the                                     5

mountains as a child. When you retire you’d like to relive the                             4
                                                                                               4      6                8            10              12   14   16
experience, but with a more substantial kind of lodging—a                                                                  Standard Deviation (%)
vacation cabin. You estimate that in six years it will cost about
                                                                             Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
$300,000 to construct a comfortable cabin on a piece of land
that’s been in your family for a long time. You have $140,000
set aside so far. You don’t need the money until you start                   Hypothetical Goal: Philanthropic Distributions
construction, so you can tolerate illiquidity and short-term                 Your family has achieved financial success and you wish to
loss. This indicates an above-average risk tolerance. How                    share your good fortune through philanthropic activities. You
should you invest your $140,000?                                             have set up a family foundation with $5 million. The goal is to
Investment Goal: Vacation Home                                               maintain distributions and expenses equal to 5% of the
                                                                             market value every year, in perpetuity. You want your family to
 Stated Risk Tolerance                     Average                           enjoy the benefits and share in the responsibilities of wealth
 Goals-Based Risk Requirement              High                              management for generations to come, and the family
                                                                             foundation is a wonderful vehicle to achieve your wealth
 Required Return                           13.50%
                                                                             planning goals.
 Minimum Acceptable Return                 13.50%
                                                                             Because the assets placed in the foundation are for charitable
 Investment Time Frame                     6 years
                                                                             causes, you don’t want to take much investment risk with this
                                                                             portfolio. Your minimum acceptable return is 5%, which will
                                                                             cover the annual distributions from the foundation. A return
                                                                             below that level would cause concern.




                                                                          Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 4
You have the money invested in a lower-risk allocation as                      Philanthropic Goal-Based Suggestion
shown below:
                                                                                                                                                                   Real Estate—
                                                                                            Hedge Funds—                                                           Public REITs 2.5%
Original Portfolio                                                                          Aggressive** 3%
                                                                                                                                                                   Real Estate—
                                                                                            Hedge Funds—                                                           Private REITs* 2.5%
                                                                                            Conservative** 2%
    High-Yield Bonds 6%                                                                     Private Equity* 2%
                                                       U.S. Large Cap 21%                                                                                          U.S. Large Cap 27%
    Long-Term Bonds 9%                                                                      Commodities 3%
                                                       U.S. Mid Cap 5%                      High-Yield Bonds 4%
                                                                                            Long-Term Bonds 3%                                                     U.S. Mid Cap 5%
                                                       U.S. Small Cap 3%
                                                                                                                                                                   U.S. Small Cap 4%
    Intermediate-Term                                  International
    Bonds 37%                                          Developed-Markets                                                                                           International
                                                       Equity 8%                            Intermediate-Term
                                                                                                                                                                   Developed-Markets
                                                                                            Bonds 20%                                                              Equity 15%
                                                       International
                                                       Emerging-Markets                     Short-Term Bonds 3%                                                    International
    Short-Term Bonds 9%                                Equity 2%                                                                                                   Emerging-Markets
                                                                                                                                                                   Equity 4%

Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
                                                                               * Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified
                                                                                 investors only.
As our efficient frontier chart to the right indicates, the                    **Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only.

hypothetical return of this portfolio is projected to be about                 Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
6.8%. Let’s determine if this is consistent with your investment
goals. Your goal is for distributions and expenses to be 5%
annually, and to maintain this for perpetuity. To accomplish                   Efficient Frontier Analysis
this, you must generate 5%, plus keep up with inflation.                                    10
Calculating the required return for your foundation shows
the following:                                                                               9

                                                                                                        Philanthropic Goal-Based
Distributions and Administrative Expenses      5.00%                                         8                                               Suggested Portfolio
Inflation                                      2.75%
                                                                               Return (%)




Total Required Return                          7.75%                                         7
                                                                                                                     Original Portfolio

Investment Goal: Philanthropic Distributions                                                 6


 Stated Risk Tolerance                         Low                                           5                      Risk-Based
 Goals-Based Risk Requirement                  Moderate
                                                                                             4
 Required Return                               7.75%                                             4              6            8               10              12          14              16

 Minimum Acceptable Return                     5.00%                                                                                Standard Deviation (%)

 Investment Time Frame                         Perpetual                       Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06


Your current risk tolerance does not allow for a portfolio with                A scenario analysis reveals that this portfolio, despite its higher
adequate growth opportunities to accomplish your stated                        risk, has a reduced probability of falling below your minimum
goals. Using your goals as a basis for optimization, we see that               acceptable return of 5%. This portfolio is well diversified,
the following allocation, with an 8.14% hypothetical return is                 which helps to control overall risk, but still focused on
more appropriate:                                                              investment growth. The hypothetical return is slightly higher
                                                                               than your goal, which allows for some level of uncertainty in
                                                                               the returns. This provides a better opportunity for your
                                                                               investment goals to be achieved over multiple generations.
                                                                               A goals-based approach has better aligned the investment
                                                                               strategy of the foundation with your philanthropic goals.




                                                                            Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 5
Hypothetical Goal: Wonderful Retirement                                             By looking at your efficient frontier from a goals-based stand-
                                                                                    point, we determine that a balanced portfolio is appropriate for
You and your husband have worked hard and saved for
                                                                                    your investment requirements:
retirement. You met while working at the same company, and
your investments are dominated by the company stock. It has                         Efficient Frontier Analysis
done well over the years, and it does pay a dividend, but you
                                                                                                 10
know that the risk of having all of your eggs in one basket is
not appropriate. The assets are in tax-deferred vehicles, both                                    9
401(k) and IRA accounts, so diversifying the assets should not
incur any tax liabilities.4                                                                       8
                                                                                                          Retirement Goal-Based
                                                                                                                                      Suggested Portfolio
The current value of the portfolio is $1,500,000. Your intent is to




                                                                                    Return (%)
                                                                                                  7
have this portfolio supplement your pension and Social Security
benefits. Working with your wealth planning specialist, you
                                                                                                  6
determine that a 4% withdrawal rate, equaling about $60,000
adjusted for inflation annually, is sustainable. You also feel that                               5
the portfolio’s performance should at least cover the 4%
withdrawal, making 4% your minimum acceptable return.                                             4
                                                                                                      4              6            8                10             12         14             16
What investment strategy is appropriate for this portfolio?                                                                              Standard Deviation (%)
You know that the current concentration in company stock                            Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
is not prudent. You and your husband are both 63 years old
and starting retirement, so you are nervous about risk. A                           Balanced Portfolio Suggestion
long time horizon of 30 years or more is not unrealistic. Let’s
                                                                                                 Hedge Funds—
take a goals-based approach to determine the appropriate                                         Aggressive** 2%                                                       Real Estate—
                                                                                                                                                                       Public REITs 3%
investment strategy. The required return is calculated as follows:                               Hedge Funds—
                                                                                                                                                                       Real Estate—
                                                                                                 Conservative** 4%
                                                                                                                                                                       Private REITs* 2%
                                                                                                 Private Equity* 2%
Distribution Requirement                           4.00%                                                                                                               U.S. Large Cap 20%
                                                                                                 Commodities 2%
Inflation                                          2.75%                                         High-Yield Bonds 5%
Administrative Expenses                            0.75%                                         Long-Term Bonds 3%                                                    U.S. Mid Cap 4%
                                                                                                                                                                       U.S. Small Cap 3%
Total Required Return                              7.50%
                                                                                                                                                                       International
                                                                                                 Intermediate-Term                                                     Developed-Markets
Investment Goal: Wonderful Retirement                                                            Bonds 28%                                                             Equity 12%

                                                                                                                                                                       International
                                                                                                                                                                       Emerging-Markets
    Stated Risk Tolerance                          Low                                           Short-Term Bonds 7%                                                   Equity 3%
    Goals-Based Risk Requirement                   Moderate
                                                                                    * Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified
    Required Return                                7.50%                              investors only.
    Minimum Acceptable Return                      4.00%                            **Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only.
                                                                                    Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06
    Investment Time Frame                          10–40 years

                                                                                    This investment strategy provides sufficient liquidity to satisfy
                                                                                    your 4% annual distribution, along with growth opportunities
                                                                                    to provide assets throughout your retirement. The diversified
                                                                                    asset allocation controls risk much better than your
                                                                                    concentration in the company stock. Statistical analysis shows
                                                                                    that this portfolio has a lower probability of falling below the
                                                                                    4% minimum required return. This is important in retirement,
                                                                                    because you do not have the same opportunity to overcome
                                                                                    loss as you did while working. This goals-based approach
                                                                                    has provided you with an investment strategy that meets
                                                                                    both short-term cash flow needs and longer-term growth
                                                                                    requirements in a well diversified allocation.



4
    Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor to determine how this information may apply to your own situation.

                                                                               Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 6
Goals-Based Optimization and Asset Allocation                                       Every investment portfolio has some level of uncertainty. Also,
                                                                                    capital markets don’t always behave as expected. As a result,
Successful investing requires a multi-faceted approach. Risk
                                                                                    you and your financial professional need to have regular
tolerance alone does not provide enough information to
                                                                                    monitoring and reviewing discussions. You need to review
develop a comprehensive investment strategy. Focusing solely
                                                                                    your desired goals, minimum acceptable return requirements,
on return may lead to a strategy with inappropriate levels of
                                                                                    and minimum wealth levels. If your goals change, your target
risk, given your cash-flow, liquidity, or time-horizon require-
                                                                                    asset allocation should be adjusted to accommodate these
ments. To maximize the probability of having a successful
                                                                                    changes. Your portfolio needs to be monitored to determine
investment portfolio, you need to address risk and return,
                                                                                    how different your target strategy is from your actual
along with cash flow, liquidity, and tax efficiency.5 A behavioral
                                                                                    investment mix, and if you need to rebalance your portfolio.
finance approach to risk tolerance uses a minimum acceptable
                                                                                    These regular meetings are a critical component for successful
return or minimum wealth target to articulate risk, as opposed
                                                                                    goals-based strategy analysis.
to a traditional standard deviation (volatility) range.
Maximizing returns is not the goal for truly successful investors.
Your success is measured by achieving the required return to
meet your investment goals, while controlling risk. Risk toler-
ance is commonly associated with a minimum wealth level,
as opposed to a pure volatility measure. You must be able to
articulate your goals, not only in terms of total return, but also
your cash flow, liquidity, and time-horizon requirements. By
thoroughly analyzing your comprehensive investment goals,
you are able to develop an investment strategy that addresses
all of your needs. A goals-based optimization approach to
asset allocation can lead to a customized strategy designed
for your unique investment objectives.
What can you do today to start developing a goals-based
strategy for your wealth? In talking with your Wells Fargo PCS
financial professional, there are three steps to follow:
1. Develop a plan. Articulate what your goals are and assign
   an appropriate time frame to each goal. If you have only
   one or two goals, you probably need to be more thorough.
2. Create an investment policy statement. Work with your
   financial professional to create an investment policy
   statement that will serve as a complete road map for your
   wealth plan.
3. Measure success over time. Determine appropriate
   benchmarks based on your goals (not necessarily based
   on industry standards like the S&P 500), and measure your
   portfolio’s performance against this customized benchmark.




5
    Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor to determine how this information may apply to your own situation.

                                                                               Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 7
Disclosures
     Wells Fargo Private Client Services provides financial products                The Well Fargo PCS capital market assumptions and associated
     and services through various banking and brokerage affiliates of               strategic asset allocations will change periodically, based on our
     Wells Fargo & Company, including Wells Fargo Investments, LLC                  long-term capital markets outlook. Please consult your relationship
     (member SIPC).                                                                 manager to obtain the complete and most up-to-date capital market
                                                                                    assumptions and help determine the strategic asset allocation that is
     The information and opinions in this report were prepared by PCS               most appropriate for your circumstances.
     Investment Management, the investment management organization
     within Private Client Services. PCS is a division of Wells Fargo Bank,         The hypothetical goals mentioned in this report do not represent
     N.A. (WFB).                                                                    actual performance results achieved and are for illustrative
                                                                                    purposes only.
     Information and opinions have been obtained or derived from
     information we consider reliable, but we cannot guarantee their                Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks that may not be
     accuracy or completeness. Opinions represent WFB’s opinion as of               present in domestic securities. For example, investments in foreign
     the date of this report and are for general information purposes only.         and emerging markets present special risks including currency
     WFB does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions             fluctuation, the potential for diplomatic and political instability,
     or the information contained in this report. WFC affiliates may issue          regulatory and liquidity risks, foreign taxation and differences in
     reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach                 auditing and other financial standards.
     different conclusions from, this report.
                                                                                    Fixed income securities are subject to availability and market
     Past performance does not indicate future results. The value or                fluctuation. These securities may be worth less than the original cost
     income associated with a security may fluctuate. There is always the           upon redemption. Certain high-yield/high-risk bonds carry particular
     potential for loss as well as gain.                                            market risks and may experience greater volatility in market value
                                                                                    than investment-grade corporate bonds. Government bonds and
     The investments discussed in this presentation are not insured by the          Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to
     Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and may be unsuitable for                maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. Interest
     some investors depending on their specific investment objectives               from certain municipal bonds may be subject to state and/or local
     and financial position.                                                        taxes and in some instances, the alternative minimum tax.
     This report is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to   Real estate investment carries a certain degree of risk and may not
     buy or sell any securities mentioned. Investments discussed or                 be suitable for all investors.
     recommended in this presentation may be unsuitable for some
     investors depending on their specific investment objectives and                Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified
     financial position. Additional information on any security mentioned           investors only.
     is available on request.
                                                                                    You cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include
     Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide tax advice. Please consult                management fees, so your actual return may differ from those listed
     your tax advisor to determine how this information may apply to your           in charts.
     own situation.
                                                                                    S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index calculated on a
     Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide legal advice. Please consult              total-return basis with dividends reinvested. The index includes
     your legal advisor to determine how this information may apply to              500 widely held U.S. market industrial, utility, transportation and
     your own situation.                                                            financial companies.
     Asset allocation does not guarantee better performance and cannot              Additional information is available upon request.
     eliminate the risk of investment losses.
                                                                                    © 2007 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved.
     Your individual asset allocation may be different from the strategic
     asset allocations shown in this special report due to your unique
     circumstances. A portfolio’s asset allocation may fluctuate based on
     asset values, portfolio decisions and account needs.




© 2007 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.                                                                                                      PCS-AB24001 (200612136 01/07)

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White paper for WFB Private Clients

  • 1. Special Report Goals-Based Asset Allocation A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy January 2007
  • 2. Goals-Based Asset Allocation A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy Prepared by: Table of Contents Ronald Florance, CFA Asset Allocation—A Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Director of Asset Allocation & Strategy Prudent Efficient Frontiers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Editorial Review: Hypothetical Goal: Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Hypothetical Goal: Vacation Home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 Dean A. Junkans, CFA Hypothetical Goal: Philanthropic Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 PCS Chief Investment Officer Hypothetical Goal: Wonderful Retirement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 Anne Symanovich Goals-Based Optimization and Asset Allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Senior Analyst January 2007
  • 3. Goals-Based Asset Allocation A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy Asset allocation is the cornerstone of sound investment strategy. Unfortunately, too many times, the asset allocation process involves complicated risk analysis with little concern for your goals or real investment requirements. In traditional asset allocation, risk is measured by annualized standard deviation, though most investors do not define personal investment risk in this way. For that reason, standard deviation is not always a good measure of an investor’s intuitive risk tolerance. An asset allocation approach solely based on standard deviation may lead to inappropriate investment strategies because it fails to take an investor’s unique goals into consideration. A goals-based approach to risk tolerance can lead to investment strategies that are better suited to your specific wealth goals and behavioral finance risk tolerances.1 Traditional asset allocation is based on asset class optimiza- achieve tangible goals, such as paying for children’s education, tion. It asks the question: how can different asset classes be making charitable contributions, or funding retirement. combined to make the return-to-risk relationship as favorable Looking at the greater picture, which includes your wealth as possible? Note that there is no reference to client goals. objectives and goals-based risk tolerance, can lead to a much A goals-based approach takes into account a client’s unique more satisfying asset allocation and investment strategy. definition of risk, required return, and success. An investor’s broader satisfaction is based on more than the return/risk Asset Allocation—A Review relationship. Asset allocation is the process of combining different This report takes a different approach. We want to use the investment vehicles into a portfolio that addresses an sophisticated science of Modern Portfolio Theory and investor’s risk and return requirements. Traditional asset mathematical optimization, but within a context that is allocation involves determining an investor’s risk tolerance, focused on your unique investment goals. At Wells Fargo and then—based on that—finding the investment mix that Private Client Services (PCS), we take a client-centric or has the greatest potential for return. This is done through an goals-based approach to developing your investment optimization process, which maximizes the return-to-risk strategy. By focusing on your investment goals, we can create relationship. Let’s review the fundamentals of asset allocation an investment strategy tailored to your specific wealth needs. before addressing goals-based vs. risk-based optimization. Identifying desired return, minimum acceptable return, and investment time frame leads to an asset allocation designed The asset allocation process starts with capital market for your financial goals with a more realistic risk tolerance than assumptions for each asset class that is available in your traditional standard deviation analysis. investable universe. These assumptions are not intended to predict the future but rather, to put in perspective realistic This process relies on you, the investor, being able to articulate expectations of potential investment risk and return traits. the real needs you have for your investment portfolio. The capital market assumptions include hypothetical return, Satisfaction generally does not come from simply maximizing hypothetical risk, and correlation. Return is measured as return or minimizing risk. A study of behavioral finance annualized total return, with risk measured by annualized revealed that investors are not focused on statistics to define standard deviation of returns. The correlations measure how investment satisfaction.1 In fact, few clients articulate risk in much diversification you get by adding a specific asset terms of annualized standard deviations. Investors tend to class to the existing mix. A low correlation helps to add think of risk in terms of minimum wealth level or probability of diversification and reduce total portfolio risk. losing money. True satisfaction comes from having a portfolio 1 Wells Fargo Special Report, Asset Allocation for Real World Investors, 2006 Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 1
  • 4. The Wells Fargo PCS Asset Allocation Team has developed a Prudent Efficient Frontiers set of capital market assumptions. Below is a table that high- Each of the two efficient frontiers represents a different lights our multiple market-cycle (10–15 years) expectations for investable universe. The more diverse the universe, the better selected asset classes. the risk/return tradeoffs available to the investor. Additionally, Selected Capital Market Assumptions different clients have other efficient frontiers due to the unique restrictions or constraints they have put on their Hypothetical Risk investment portfolios. These restrictions may be cash Hypothetical (Standard Sharpe requirements, concentrated stock holdings, social investing Asset Class Return Deviation [%]) Ratio* requirements, or other investment concerns. Our two efficient Inflation 2.75 — — frontiers represent portfolios with and without alternative Intermediate-Term 5.00 5.50 0.32 investments,2 which are defined as hedge funds,3 private Taxable Bonds equity, real estate, and commodities. Your specific efficient Long-Term Taxable Bonds 5.75 8.25 0.30 frontier will be different, depending on the restrictions that you require. We call this a “prudent efficient frontier.” U.S. Large Cap Core 8.75 15.00 0.37 International Developed 9.00 15.50 0.37 Now that we have established an efficient frontier, we need to Markets Equity determine where your appropriate portfolio lies along this Commodities 8.75 14.50 0.38 frontier. The risk-based approach uses a risk-tolerance questionnaire designed to assess your attitudes toward risk. * The Sharpe ratio is a measure of risk-adjusted returns: The profilers come in many forms, but generally they include hypothetical return – hypothetical risk-free rate 10-15 questions addressing your attitude toward capital loss, hypothetical standard deviation volatility, and liquidity needs. Your responses are scored on a Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 risk-tolerance scale, and you are assigned a risk range, defined by annualized standard deviation of returns. By using an optimization process, we can combine these Efficient Frontier Analysis asset classes into “efficient portfolios.” Efficiency is defined as maximizing hypothetical return, given each level of 10 Two-Asset Groups hypothetical risk. The set of these portfolios along the risk Four-Asset Groups spectrum represent the efficient frontier. The chart below 9 shows the two efficient frontiers that Wells Fargo PCS uses for 8 developing asset allocation strategies. Return (%) Efficient Frontier Analysis 7 10 6 Two-Asset Groups Four-Asset Groups 9 5 8 4 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Return (%) 7 Standard Deviation (%) Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 6 On the efficient frontier above, your sample risk tolerance 5 range is highlighted. Your optimal strategic asset allocation is generally represented by the portfolio that falls in the middle 4 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 of this risk range. While the risk-based optimization approach Standard Deviation (%) is very effective in maximizing the risk-return relationship, it Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 may not address your specific investment goals or goals- based risk tolerance. Interestingly, many investors have a significant disconnect between their attitudes toward risk and the return requirements of their investment portfolios. 2 Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified investors only. 3 Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only. Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 2
  • 5. One of the biggest problems facing investors is emotional risk. Today, the portfolio is worth $160,000, and your asset allocation is: When things go bad, investors often make short-term Original Portfolio decisions that can be detrimental to the long-term success of the portfolio. When markets go down because of short-term International Emerging-Markets trading reactions, some investors sell and wait for the rebound. Equity 5% This is classic market timing of selling low and buying high. On International the flip side, investors have been known to pile assets into the Developed-Markets Equity 20% ”theme du jour” for fear of missing the party, while knowing U.S. Large Cap 55% that all rational valuation measures tell them not to. Because U.S. Small Cap 8% this usually occurs just before a very painful correction, investors end up buying high and selling low. The goals-based U.S. Mid Cap 12% approach reduces the chance that short-term emotions will derail your long-term strategy because it focuses on long-term Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 goals rather than short-term market swings. By using a goals-based approach, you can reduce the chances In taking a goals-based approach to developing your investment of this disconnect between risk tolerance, potential invest- strategy, a disconnect between the risk you are taking and the ment return, and investment goals. Following are hypothetical risk you need to take becomes obvious. You have stated that scenarios that use a goals-based optimization approach to this portfolio’s value needs to be $200,000 in four years. Given develop asset allocation and investment strategies. its current value of $160,000, the required annual rate of return to achieve your goal is about 5.75%. You also noted that your minimum acceptable return is 0%, or no loss of principal. Hypothetical Goal: Education Using our efficient frontier chart below, you see that you are Your daughter has just started her freshman year in high taking much more risk than is necessary to achieve your goal. school, reminding you that her college tuition bills will start in Why is this bad? Because risk has two sides: an upside and a just four years. You have been saving and investing in a 529 downside. More risk means more chance for both. If you plan in anticipation of this responsibility. In speaking with your experience downside risk in the next four years, there is not financial professional and planner, you have determined that enough time to recover the losses before your daughter starts you will need about $200,000 in four years to cover her total college. Why take unnecessary risk? college costs. Efficient Frontier Analysis You’re a long-time investor and are comfortable with a 10 moderately high level of risk in your investment portfolios. Original Portfolio In the past few years, the markets have performed well, 9 increasing the value of your riskier investments. You would like to achieve the $200,000 value, but don’t want to lose a lot of 8 money, as you don’t have much time to recoup losses. You Return (%) also know that any shortfall at this point can be addressed 7 Risk-Based through student loans. 6 Suggested Portfolio Investment Goal: Education Education Goal-Based 5 Stated Risk Tolerance High Goals-Based Risk Requirement Low 4 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Required Return 5.75% Standard Deviation (%) Minimum Acceptable Return 0.00% Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 Investment Time Frame 4–8 years The risk of a portfolio designed with the potential return goal of 5.75% is significantly lower than the current risk in your portfolio, and has an average expected return in line with the $200,000 goal. Because of the lower level of risk of this portfolio, there is less of a chance of falling below your minimum acceptable return. Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 3
  • 6. By optimizing for your goal, we are able to develop the To achieve your goal of $300,000, you’ll need about 13.50% of asset allocation below, which is designed to achieve your annual return. Our efficient frontier chart below shows that investment objective, while reducing the chance of failure this is an extremely ambitious return goal for a portfolio, defined by your goals-based risk tolerance. This is the power especially with the relatively short investment time frame. of goals-based optimization. Though a portfolio may achieve this return level in some years, requiring this return year after year is probably Education Goal-Based Suggestion unreasonable. There is a good chance that a portfolio will not High-Yield Bonds 8% U.S. Large Cap 11% grow to the required size. In this case, you need to re-evaluate U.S. Mid Cap 2% your goal. Adjustments can be made to either the size of the Long-Term Bonds 12% U.S. Small Cap 2% International cabin, or the timing of the construction. Either approach can Developed-Markets reduce the required return to the portfolio. The goals-based Equity 4% International approach highlights how realistic the goal is in relation to the Emerging-Markets Equity 1% investment opportunities available. Intermediate-Term Bonds 45% Short-Term Bonds 15% Efficient Frontier Analysis 14 Goal-Based Requirement Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 13 Two-Asset Groups 12 Four-Asset Groups All portfolios have uncertainty. For this reason, you need to 11 meet with your financial professional regularly to review and 10 monitor your portfolio’s actual performance, any change in 9 your goals, and rebalancing actions that are required. 8 Return (%) 7 Hypothetical Goal: Vacation Home 6 You spent many happy days camping out in a tent in the 5 mountains as a child. When you retire you’d like to relive the 4 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 experience, but with a more substantial kind of lodging—a Standard Deviation (%) vacation cabin. You estimate that in six years it will cost about Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 $300,000 to construct a comfortable cabin on a piece of land that’s been in your family for a long time. You have $140,000 set aside so far. You don’t need the money until you start Hypothetical Goal: Philanthropic Distributions construction, so you can tolerate illiquidity and short-term Your family has achieved financial success and you wish to loss. This indicates an above-average risk tolerance. How share your good fortune through philanthropic activities. You should you invest your $140,000? have set up a family foundation with $5 million. The goal is to Investment Goal: Vacation Home maintain distributions and expenses equal to 5% of the market value every year, in perpetuity. You want your family to Stated Risk Tolerance Average enjoy the benefits and share in the responsibilities of wealth Goals-Based Risk Requirement High management for generations to come, and the family foundation is a wonderful vehicle to achieve your wealth Required Return 13.50% planning goals. Minimum Acceptable Return 13.50% Because the assets placed in the foundation are for charitable Investment Time Frame 6 years causes, you don’t want to take much investment risk with this portfolio. Your minimum acceptable return is 5%, which will cover the annual distributions from the foundation. A return below that level would cause concern. Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 4
  • 7. You have the money invested in a lower-risk allocation as Philanthropic Goal-Based Suggestion shown below: Real Estate— Hedge Funds— Public REITs 2.5% Original Portfolio Aggressive** 3% Real Estate— Hedge Funds— Private REITs* 2.5% Conservative** 2% High-Yield Bonds 6% Private Equity* 2% U.S. Large Cap 21% U.S. Large Cap 27% Long-Term Bonds 9% Commodities 3% U.S. Mid Cap 5% High-Yield Bonds 4% Long-Term Bonds 3% U.S. Mid Cap 5% U.S. Small Cap 3% U.S. Small Cap 4% Intermediate-Term International Bonds 37% Developed-Markets International Equity 8% Intermediate-Term Developed-Markets Bonds 20% Equity 15% International Emerging-Markets Short-Term Bonds 3% International Short-Term Bonds 9% Equity 2% Emerging-Markets Equity 4% Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 * Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified investors only. As our efficient frontier chart to the right indicates, the **Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only. hypothetical return of this portfolio is projected to be about Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 6.8%. Let’s determine if this is consistent with your investment goals. Your goal is for distributions and expenses to be 5% annually, and to maintain this for perpetuity. To accomplish Efficient Frontier Analysis this, you must generate 5%, plus keep up with inflation. 10 Calculating the required return for your foundation shows the following: 9 Philanthropic Goal-Based Distributions and Administrative Expenses 5.00% 8 Suggested Portfolio Inflation 2.75% Return (%) Total Required Return 7.75% 7 Original Portfolio Investment Goal: Philanthropic Distributions 6 Stated Risk Tolerance Low 5 Risk-Based Goals-Based Risk Requirement Moderate 4 Required Return 7.75% 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Minimum Acceptable Return 5.00% Standard Deviation (%) Investment Time Frame Perpetual Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 Your current risk tolerance does not allow for a portfolio with A scenario analysis reveals that this portfolio, despite its higher adequate growth opportunities to accomplish your stated risk, has a reduced probability of falling below your minimum goals. Using your goals as a basis for optimization, we see that acceptable return of 5%. This portfolio is well diversified, the following allocation, with an 8.14% hypothetical return is which helps to control overall risk, but still focused on more appropriate: investment growth. The hypothetical return is slightly higher than your goal, which allows for some level of uncertainty in the returns. This provides a better opportunity for your investment goals to be achieved over multiple generations. A goals-based approach has better aligned the investment strategy of the foundation with your philanthropic goals. Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 5
  • 8. Hypothetical Goal: Wonderful Retirement By looking at your efficient frontier from a goals-based stand- point, we determine that a balanced portfolio is appropriate for You and your husband have worked hard and saved for your investment requirements: retirement. You met while working at the same company, and your investments are dominated by the company stock. It has Efficient Frontier Analysis done well over the years, and it does pay a dividend, but you 10 know that the risk of having all of your eggs in one basket is not appropriate. The assets are in tax-deferred vehicles, both 9 401(k) and IRA accounts, so diversifying the assets should not incur any tax liabilities.4 8 Retirement Goal-Based Suggested Portfolio The current value of the portfolio is $1,500,000. Your intent is to Return (%) 7 have this portfolio supplement your pension and Social Security benefits. Working with your wealth planning specialist, you 6 determine that a 4% withdrawal rate, equaling about $60,000 adjusted for inflation annually, is sustainable. You also feel that 5 the portfolio’s performance should at least cover the 4% withdrawal, making 4% your minimum acceptable return. 4 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 What investment strategy is appropriate for this portfolio? Standard Deviation (%) You know that the current concentration in company stock Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 is not prudent. You and your husband are both 63 years old and starting retirement, so you are nervous about risk. A Balanced Portfolio Suggestion long time horizon of 30 years or more is not unrealistic. Let’s Hedge Funds— take a goals-based approach to determine the appropriate Aggressive** 2% Real Estate— Public REITs 3% investment strategy. The required return is calculated as follows: Hedge Funds— Real Estate— Conservative** 4% Private REITs* 2% Private Equity* 2% Distribution Requirement 4.00% U.S. Large Cap 20% Commodities 2% Inflation 2.75% High-Yield Bonds 5% Administrative Expenses 0.75% Long-Term Bonds 3% U.S. Mid Cap 4% U.S. Small Cap 3% Total Required Return 7.50% International Intermediate-Term Developed-Markets Investment Goal: Wonderful Retirement Bonds 28% Equity 12% International Emerging-Markets Stated Risk Tolerance Low Short-Term Bonds 7% Equity 3% Goals-Based Risk Requirement Moderate * Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified Required Return 7.50% investors only. Minimum Acceptable Return 4.00% **Hedge funds are available for accredited investors only. Source: Wells Fargo PCS, 12/06 Investment Time Frame 10–40 years This investment strategy provides sufficient liquidity to satisfy your 4% annual distribution, along with growth opportunities to provide assets throughout your retirement. The diversified asset allocation controls risk much better than your concentration in the company stock. Statistical analysis shows that this portfolio has a lower probability of falling below the 4% minimum required return. This is important in retirement, because you do not have the same opportunity to overcome loss as you did while working. This goals-based approach has provided you with an investment strategy that meets both short-term cash flow needs and longer-term growth requirements in a well diversified allocation. 4 Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor to determine how this information may apply to your own situation. Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 6
  • 9. Goals-Based Optimization and Asset Allocation Every investment portfolio has some level of uncertainty. Also, capital markets don’t always behave as expected. As a result, Successful investing requires a multi-faceted approach. Risk you and your financial professional need to have regular tolerance alone does not provide enough information to monitoring and reviewing discussions. You need to review develop a comprehensive investment strategy. Focusing solely your desired goals, minimum acceptable return requirements, on return may lead to a strategy with inappropriate levels of and minimum wealth levels. If your goals change, your target risk, given your cash-flow, liquidity, or time-horizon require- asset allocation should be adjusted to accommodate these ments. To maximize the probability of having a successful changes. Your portfolio needs to be monitored to determine investment portfolio, you need to address risk and return, how different your target strategy is from your actual along with cash flow, liquidity, and tax efficiency.5 A behavioral investment mix, and if you need to rebalance your portfolio. finance approach to risk tolerance uses a minimum acceptable These regular meetings are a critical component for successful return or minimum wealth target to articulate risk, as opposed goals-based strategy analysis. to a traditional standard deviation (volatility) range. Maximizing returns is not the goal for truly successful investors. Your success is measured by achieving the required return to meet your investment goals, while controlling risk. Risk toler- ance is commonly associated with a minimum wealth level, as opposed to a pure volatility measure. You must be able to articulate your goals, not only in terms of total return, but also your cash flow, liquidity, and time-horizon requirements. By thoroughly analyzing your comprehensive investment goals, you are able to develop an investment strategy that addresses all of your needs. A goals-based optimization approach to asset allocation can lead to a customized strategy designed for your unique investment objectives. What can you do today to start developing a goals-based strategy for your wealth? In talking with your Wells Fargo PCS financial professional, there are three steps to follow: 1. Develop a plan. Articulate what your goals are and assign an appropriate time frame to each goal. If you have only one or two goals, you probably need to be more thorough. 2. Create an investment policy statement. Work with your financial professional to create an investment policy statement that will serve as a complete road map for your wealth plan. 3. Measure success over time. Determine appropriate benchmarks based on your goals (not necessarily based on industry standards like the S&P 500), and measure your portfolio’s performance against this customized benchmark. 5 Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor to determine how this information may apply to your own situation. Goals-Based Asset Allocation—A Personal Approach to Investment Strategy | 7
  • 10. Disclosures Wells Fargo Private Client Services provides financial products The Well Fargo PCS capital market assumptions and associated and services through various banking and brokerage affiliates of strategic asset allocations will change periodically, based on our Wells Fargo & Company, including Wells Fargo Investments, LLC long-term capital markets outlook. Please consult your relationship (member SIPC). manager to obtain the complete and most up-to-date capital market assumptions and help determine the strategic asset allocation that is The information and opinions in this report were prepared by PCS most appropriate for your circumstances. Investment Management, the investment management organization within Private Client Services. PCS is a division of Wells Fargo Bank, The hypothetical goals mentioned in this report do not represent N.A. (WFB). actual performance results achieved and are for illustrative purposes only. Information and opinions have been obtained or derived from information we consider reliable, but we cannot guarantee their Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks that may not be accuracy or completeness. Opinions represent WFB’s opinion as of present in domestic securities. For example, investments in foreign the date of this report and are for general information purposes only. and emerging markets present special risks including currency WFB does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions fluctuation, the potential for diplomatic and political instability, or the information contained in this report. WFC affiliates may issue regulatory and liquidity risks, foreign taxation and differences in reports or have opinions that are inconsistent with, and reach auditing and other financial standards. different conclusions from, this report. Fixed income securities are subject to availability and market Past performance does not indicate future results. The value or fluctuation. These securities may be worth less than the original cost income associated with a security may fluctuate. There is always the upon redemption. Certain high-yield/high-risk bonds carry particular potential for loss as well as gain. market risks and may experience greater volatility in market value than investment-grade corporate bonds. Government bonds and The investments discussed in this presentation are not insured by the Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and may be unsuitable for maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. Interest some investors depending on their specific investment objectives from certain municipal bonds may be subject to state and/or local and financial position. taxes and in some instances, the alternative minimum tax. This report is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of an offer to Real estate investment carries a certain degree of risk and may not buy or sell any securities mentioned. Investments discussed or be suitable for all investors. recommended in this presentation may be unsuitable for some investors depending on their specific investment objectives and Some alternative investments may be available for pre-qualified financial position. Additional information on any security mentioned investors only. is available on request. You cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide tax advice. Please consult management fees, so your actual return may differ from those listed your tax advisor to determine how this information may apply to your in charts. own situation. S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index calculated on a Wells Fargo & Company cannot provide legal advice. Please consult total-return basis with dividends reinvested. The index includes your legal advisor to determine how this information may apply to 500 widely held U.S. market industrial, utility, transportation and your own situation. financial companies. Asset allocation does not guarantee better performance and cannot Additional information is available upon request. eliminate the risk of investment losses. © 2007 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. Your individual asset allocation may be different from the strategic asset allocations shown in this special report due to your unique circumstances. A portfolio’s asset allocation may fluctuate based on asset values, portfolio decisions and account needs. © 2007 Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. PCS-AB24001 (200612136 01/07)