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HAART	
  sostenibilità	
  di	
  un	
  miracolo	
  
Milano,	
  22	
  marzo	
  2013	
  
Giuliano Rizzardini
Dipartimento Malattie Infettive Ospedale Luigi Sacco, Milano
School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Science,
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
	
  
L’	
  inizio	
  della	
  storia	
  
L’inizio	
  della	
  speranza	
  
L’inizio	
  del	
  miracolo	
  
Il	
  compimento	
  del	
  miracolo	
  
Per-person survival gains with treatment in patients with
AIDS compared with gains associated with interventions for
other common diseases in the United States
Walensky	
  RP,	
  et	
  al.	
  J	
  Infect	
  Dis,	
  2006	
  
 	
  	
  
Ma	
  il	
  miracolo	
  è	
  sostenibile	
  ?	
  
Il contesto di riferimento:
la crisi economica mondiale
CRISI DEL WELFARE STATE
IL SISTEMA SANITARIO E’
DIFFICILMENTE SOSTENIBILE
AL 2030
G-7 Eu (ITA, FRA, GER, UK) : +3 p.p. sul Pil
Canada: oltre +3 p.p. di Pil
Giappone: +3 p.p.
Usa: poco meno di +4,5 p.p.
AL 2050
G-7 Eu: circa +9 p.p. sul Pil
Usa: poco meno +13 p.p.
Proiezioni FMI costo sistemi sanitari
Spesa	
  pro	
  capite	
  in	
  $	
  PPP	
  
$0,00	
  
$1.000,00	
  
$2.000,00	
  
$3.000,00	
  
$4.000,00	
  
$5.000,00	
  
$6.000,00	
  
$7.000,00	
  
$8.000,00	
  
$9.000,00	
  
$10.000,00	
  
1995	
   1996	
   1997	
   1998	
   1999	
   2000	
   2001	
   2002	
   2003	
   2004	
   2005	
   2006	
   2007	
   2008	
   2009	
   2010	
   2011	
  
Australia	
  	
  
Brasile	
  
Russia	
  
India	
  
Cina	
  
Sudafrica	
  
Canada	
  
Giappone	
  
USA	
  
Italia	
  
Francia	
  
Germania	
  
Spagna	
  
Regno	
  Unito	
  
Norvegia	
  
Svezia	
  
Svizzera	
  
Fonte: WHO, National Health Accounts, 2013, rielaborazione CREMS
BRICS
USA
E	
  l’Italia?	
  
Anno
Debito	
  
Pubblico	
  
(milioni	
  
di	
  €)
PIL	
  
(milioni	
  
di	
  €)
2007 1.602.115 1.546.177
2008 1.666.603 1.567.761
2009 1.763.864 1.519.702
2010 1.843.015 1.548.816
Fonte:	
  Ministero	
  dell'economia	
  e	
  delle	
  finanze	
  
PIL/debito	
  pubblico	
  italiano	
  
1980	
  
Cossiga,	
  
Forlani	
  
21,1%	
   118.038	
   58,0%	
  
1981	
  
Forlani,	
  
Spadolini	
  
18,7%	
   146.410	
   60,1%	
  
1982	
  
Spadolini,	
  
Fanfani	
  
16,3%	
   186.961	
   65,0%	
  
1983	
   Fanfani,	
  Craxi	
   15,0%	
   235.520	
   70,3%	
  
1984	
   Craxi	
   10,6%	
   284.825	
   74,4%	
  
1985	
   Craxi	
   8,6%	
   346.005	
   80,5%	
  
1986	
   Craxi	
   6,1%	
   401.499	
   84,5%	
  
1987	
  
Craxi,	
  Fanfani,	
  
Goria	
  
4,6%	
   460.418	
   88,6%	
  
1988	
   Goria,	
  De	
  Mita	
   5,0%	
   522.732	
   90,5%	
  
1989	
  
De	
  Mita,	
  
Andreo]	
  
6,6%	
   589.995	
   93,1%	
  
1990	
   Andreo]	
   6,1%	
   667.848	
   94,8%	
  
1991	
   Andreo]	
   6,4%	
   755.011	
   98,1%	
  
1992	
  
Andreo],	
  
Amato	
  
5,4%	
   849.920	
   105,0%	
  
1993	
   Amato,	
  Ciampi	
   4,2%	
   959.713	
   115,1%	
  
1994	
  
Ciampi,	
  
Berlusconi	
  
3,9%	
   1.069.415	
   121,2%	
  
Anno	
  
	
  
Presidente	
  
Consiglio	
  
Inflazi
one	
  
Debito	
  
(milioni	
  €)	
  
Rapporto	
  debito/PIL	
  
1995	
  
Berlusconi,	
  
Dini	
  
5,4%	
   1.151.489	
   120,9%	
  
1996	
   Dini,	
  Prodi	
   3,9%	
   1.213.508	
   120,2%	
  
1997	
   Prodi	
   1,7%	
   1.238.172	
   117,4%	
  
1998	
   Prodi,	
  D'Alema	
   1,8%	
   1.254.388	
   114,2%	
  
1999	
   D'Alema	
   1,6%	
   1.281.550	
   113,0%	
  
2000	
  
D'Alema,	
  
Amato	
  
2,6%	
   1.300.269	
   108,5%	
  
2001	
  
Amato,	
  
Berlusconi	
  
2,7%	
   1.358.351	
   108,2%	
  
2002	
   Berlusconi	
   2,4%	
   1.368.897	
   105,1%	
  
2003	
   Berlusconi	
   2,5%	
   1.394.339	
   103,9%	
  
2004	
   Berlusconi	
   2,0%	
   1.445.826	
   103,4%	
  
2005	
   Berlusconi	
   1,7%	
   1.514.408	
   105,4%	
  
2006	
  
Berlusconi,	
  
Prodi	
  
2,0%	
   1.584.093	
   106,1%	
  
2007	
   Prodi	
   1,7%	
   1.602.114	
   103,1%	
  
2008	
  
Prodi,	
  
Berlusconi	
  
3,2%	
   1.666.637	
   105,8%	
  
2009	
   Berlusconi	
   0,7%	
   1.763.676	
   116,1%	
  
2010	
   Berlusconi	
   1,6%	
   1.842.856	
   118,7%	
  
2011	
  
Berlusconi,	
  
Monb	
  
2,7%	
   1.897.946	
   120,1%	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Fonte:	
  Banca	
  d'Italia,	
  Istat	
  
Pil 2010 Euro/mld 1.556,00
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pil reale (Euro/mld) 1.565,34 1.534,03 1.538,63 1.546,98 1.559,14 1.575,17 1.595,19 1.619,35 1.647,79 1.680,75
Pil reale var % 0,60% -2,00% 0,30% 0,54% 0,79% 1,03% 1,27% 1,51% 1,76% 2,00%
Pil pro-capite (Euro) 25.819,36 25.182,62 25.149,93 25.187,94 25.295,50 25.472,44 25.719,22 26.036,99 26.427,50 26.893,27
Pil pro-capite var % -2,47% -0,13% 0,15% 0,43% 0,70% 0,97% 1,24% 1,50% 1,76%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Pil reale (Euro/mld) 1.713,69 1.746,60 1.779,43 1.812,17 1.844,79 1.877,26 1.909,55 1.941,63 1.973,47 2.005,05
Pil reale var % 1,96% 1,92% 1,88% 1,84% 1,80% 1,76% 1,72% 1,68% 1,64% 1,60%
Pil pro-capite (Euro) 27.361,39 27.831,21 28.302,09 28.773,43 29.244,69 29.715,40 30.185,11 30.653,41 31.119,88 31.584,09
Pil pro-capite var % 1,74% 1,72% 1,69% 1,67% 1,64% 1,61% 1,58% 1,55% 1,52% 1,49%
-2,00%
= acquisito
= proiezioni di crescita riportate nel Programma di Stabilità (contenuto in Def-2011)
= più recente stima di consuntivo
= stima di consenso non ancora incorporata in documenti uffiicali di finanza pubblica
La crescita
Fondo	
  Monetario	
  Internazionale:	
  previsioni	
  per	
  l’Italia	
  
Maggio	
  2012	
  
FUNZIONI	
   1990	
   2009	
   Variazione	
  
Servizi	
  generali	
   12,8%	
   13,4%	
   0,6%	
  
Difesa	
   6,8%	
   7,1%	
   0,3%	
  
Ordine	
  pubblico	
  e	
  sicurezza	
   8,9%	
   7,9%	
   -­‐1,1%	
  
Affari	
  economici	
   5,1%	
   4,5%	
   -­‐0,6%	
  
Protezione	
  dell'ambiente	
   2,9%	
   3,3%	
   0,4%	
  
Abitazioni	
  e	
  territorio	
   1,7%	
   1,9%	
   0,0%	
  
Sanità	
   32,3%	
   37,0%	
   4,7%	
  
Protezione	
  sociale	
   4,2%	
   5,0%	
   0,8%	
  
A]vità	
  ricr.,	
  culturali,	
  di	
  culto	
   2,2%	
   2,4%	
   0,1%	
  
Istruzione	
   23,1%	
   17,7%	
   -­‐5,4%	
  
Piero	
  Giarda, Elementi per una revisione della spesa pubblica
spesa	
  per	
  consumi	
  colleOvi,	
  	
  
produzione	
  di	
  servizi	
  pubblici	
  cedub	
  a	
  btolo	
  gratuito	
  al	
  cigadino	
  (2012)	
  	
  
71,3
75,7
80,6
82,4
93,2
93,2
97,6
101,6
104,2
105,6
106,9
108,0
107,0
107,9
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Importo	
  del	
  finanziamento	
  (€/miliardi)
Italia, fonte ministero della salute
106.213.749
24
Un ulteriore preoccupazione: la sanità regionalizzata
Il	
  costo	
  dell’HIV/AIDS	
  
Mean annual expenditure per patient for
selected chronic diseases in France
Mean annual expenditure per patient for
selected chronic diseases in France
Il	
  contesto	
  lombardo	
  (punto	
  di	
  vista	
  RL)	
  
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
2004 2005 2006 2007
Total cost and percentage impact per year
Euros
HAART Outpatient visits Admission Other drugs
Il	
  contesto	
  lombardo	
  (punto	
  di	
  vista	
  RL)	
  
The cost of HIV disease in Northern Italy 2007-2009
Year
Euros
P<0.0001
P=0.0002
Andamento	
  spesa	
  annua	
  pazienP	
  HIV+	
  e	
  totale	
  pazienP	
  traRaP	
  HIV+	
  dal	
  
2004	
  al	
  2012	
  
2004	
   2005	
   2006	
   2007	
   2008	
   2009	
   2010	
   2011	
   2012	
  
N°	
   pz.	
   HIV+	
  
tragab	
  
17.955	
   18.544	
   19.849	
   20.917	
   21.721	
   22.653	
   23.803	
   24.920	
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  26.222	
  	
  
Spesa	
   pro	
  
capite	
   pz.	
  
HIV+	
   tragab	
  
[€]	
  
5.135	
   5.747	
   5.960	
   6.682	
   7.113	
  
7.484,16	
  (1)	
  
7.351,74	
  (2)	
  
7.886,32	
  (1)	
  
7.749,60	
  (2)	
  
7.782,16	
  (1)	
  
7.556,80	
  (2)	
  
	
  7.681,45	
  (1)	
  
7.839,84	
  (2)	
  
	
  
Spesa	
   totale	
  
p z .	
   H I V +	
  
tragab	
  [€]	
  
92.200.976	
   106.566.894	
   118.295.815	
   139.758.191	
   154.503.861	
   169.538.677	
   187.718.193	
   193.931.438	
   	
  201.423.090	
  	
  
Incremento	
  
della	
   spesa	
  
totale	
  
-­‐	
   15,58%	
   11,01%	
   18,14%	
   10,55%	
   9,73%	
   10,72%	
   3,31%	
   3,86%	
  
(1)	
  Dato	
  medio,	
  (2)	
  Dato	
  mediano.	
  
.	
  
Costo	
  tragamento	
  	
  
farmacologico	
  per	
  HIV	
  
in	
  Lombardia	
  (file	
  F)	
  
200	
   milioni	
   di	
   euro,	
   per	
   il	
  
s e r v i z i o	
   s a n i t a r i o	
  
e q u i v a l e n t e 	
   a l	
  
finanziamento	
   dell’Azienda	
  
Ospedaliera	
   della	
   Provincia	
  
di	
  Lodi	
  
1.  	
  	
  	
  	
  Presidio	
  di	
  Casalpusterlengo	
  
2.  	
  	
  	
  	
  Presidio	
  di	
  Codogno	
  
3.  	
  	
  	
  	
  Presidio	
  di	
  Lodi	
  
4.  	
  	
  	
  	
  Presidio	
  di	
  Sant'Angelo	
  Lodigiano	
  
HIV-COI (Cost of Illness)
•  Il costo complessivo della malattia (trattamento File F, ricoveri,
farmaceutica territoriale, specialistica ambulatoriale, prevenzione e
test) dal punto di vista della Regione Lombardia (senza il costo delle
giornate di lavoro perse o l’indennità per inabilità/reddito di
sostegno) si aggira (stima CREMS) su quasi 300 milioni di € pari
all’1,7% delle intere risorse a disposizione dal SSR.
•  Di questi, circa due terzi sono determinati da farmaci
antiretrovirali.
Le	
  risposte	
  per	
  una	
  sostenibilità	
  
The squeeze on health spending (UK)
Annual	
  UK	
  HIV	
  treatment	
  and	
  
care	
  costs	
  could	
  reach	
  £750	
  
million	
  by	
  2013	
  
ClinicoEconomics and Outcomes Research
New strategies for lowering the costs
of antiretroviral treatment and care for
people with HIV/AIDS in the United Kingdom
Brian Gazzard1
Christiane Moecklinghoff2
Andrew Hill3
1
St Stephens Centre, Chelsea and
Westminster Hospital, London,
UK; 2
Janssen, Neuss, Germany;
3
Department of Pharmacology
and Therapeutics, University
of Liverpool, UK
Abstract: In the UK, the annual cost of treatment and care for people with human
immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency virus (AIDS) rose by over 600%
from £104 million in 1997 to £762 million in 2010; approximately two-thirds of the £762 million
cost of treatment and care in 2010 was for the procurement of antiretrovirals and other related
drugs.The number of people accessing care for HIV/AIDS rose from 22,000 in 2000 to 65,000 in
2009.Adoption of “test and treat” guidelines for treating all HIV-infected people with antiretro-
virals would further increase the burden of costs. Given the current economic situation, there is
now a new focus on strategies for treatment and care of people with HIV-1 infection which can
maintain efficacy but at a lower cost. In this review, we propose three strategies which could
potentially lower the costs of treatment and care, ie, stopping testing CD4 counts for patients with
full HIV RNA suppression on antiretroviral treatment and recent CD4 counts above 350 cells/ L;
more widespread use of generic antiretrovirals as replacements for patients currently taking
patented versions; and use of darunavir-ritonavir monotherapy as a switch option for patients
with full HIV RNA suppression on other antiretrovirals and no history of virological failure.
However, it is important that high standards of clinical care are maintained despite cost-saving
measures.Antiretrovirals with generic alternatives may have toxicity issues, eg, zidovudine and
nevirapine. There could be ethical issues in starting patients on these drugs if they are currently
tolerating other treatments. The use of darunavir-ritonavir monotherapy is not consistently
recommended in international HIV treatment guidelines.
Keywords: health economics, generics, darunavir-ritonavir monotherapy, nucleoside analogs,
non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors
Dovepress
R E V I E W
open access to scientific and medical research
Open Access Full Text Article
La riduzione dell’ offerta
London consortium
Efavirenz	
  
Preferred	
  first	
  line	
  treatment	
  in	
  all	
  
naïve	
  paPents	
  	
  unless:	
  
§  Pabent	
  has	
  baseline	
  resistance	
  
§  Pabent	
  wants	
  to	
  become	
  
pregnant	
  
§  Concern	
  over	
  CNS	
  side	
  effects	
  
(previous	
  history	
  or	
  current	
  
psychological	
  state)	
  
If	
  switching	
  	
  due	
  to	
  toxicity	
  
recommend:	
  
§  Boosted	
  atazanavir	
  
§  Nevirapine	
  	
  (within	
  CD4	
  criteria)	
  
Kivexa	
  
Preferred	
  first	
  line	
  treatment	
  in	
  all	
  
naïve	
  paPents	
  unless:	
  
§  HLA	
  B-­‐5701	
  posibve	
  
§  Baseline	
  HIV	
  viral	
  load	
  >	
  100,000	
  
copies/mL	
  
§  Cardiovascular	
  (CVD)	
  risk	
  over	
  10	
  
years	
  >10%	
  (before	
  adjustment	
  
for	
  DAD	
  abacavir	
  risk)	
  
§  Hepabbs	
  B:	
  HBsAg	
  +ve	
  or	
  HBV	
  
DNA	
  +ve	
  
§  Hepabbs	
  C:	
  Expecbng	
  to	
  start	
  
HCV	
  treatment	
  
Recommendabons	
  by	
  the	
  London	
  HIV	
  Consorbum	
  for	
  	
  prescribing	
  anbretrovirals,	
  April	
  2011	
  
Antiretroviral Treatment of Adult HIV Infection
2012 Recommendations of the International
Antiviral Society–USA Panel
Melanie A. Thompson, MD
Judith A. Aberg, MD
Jennifer F. Hoy, MBBS, FRACP
Amalio Telenti, MD, PhD
Constance Benson, MD
Pedro Cahn, MD, PhD
Joseph J. Eron Jr, MD
Huldrych F. Gu¨nthard, MD
Scott M. Hammer, MD
Peter Reiss, MD, PhD
Douglas D. Richman, MD
Giuliano Rizzardini, MD
David L. Thomas, MD
Donna M. Jacobsen, BS
Paul A. Volberding, MD
S
INCE THE FIRST ANTIRETROVIRAL
drug was approved 25 years ago,
improvements in the potency,
tolerability, simplicity, and avail-
ability of antiretroviral therapy (ART)
have resulted in dramatically reduced
numbers of opportunistic diseases and
deaths where ART is accessible.1
New
data show that viral suppression due to
ART results in decreased human immu-
nodeficiencyvirus(HIV)transmissionon
individual2
and population levels1
and
that, when used consistently by HIV-
sions of the “beginning of the end of
AIDS.”6
This revision of the Interna-
tionalAntiviral(formerlyAIDS)Society–
USA (IAS-USA) guidelines reflects new
data informing consideration of when to
initiate ART, new options for initial and
Context New trial data and drug regimens that have become available in the last 2
years warrant an update to guidelines for antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immu-
nodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected adults in resource-rich settings.
Objective To provide current recommendations for the treatment of adult HIV in-
fection with ART and use of laboratory-monitoring tools. Guidelines include when to
start therapy and with what drugs, monitoring for response and toxic effects, special
considerations in therapy, and managing antiretroviral failure.
Data Sources, Study Selection, and Data Extraction Data that had been pub-
lished or presented in abstract form at scientific conferences in the past 2 years were sys-
tematically searched and reviewed by an International Antiviral Society–USA panel. The
panel reviewed available evidence and formed recommendations by full panel consensus.
Data Synthesis Treatment is recommended for all adults with HIV infection; the strength
of the recommendation and the quality of the evidence increase with decreasing CD4
cell count and the presence of certain concurrent conditions. Recommended initial regi-
mens include 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (tenofovir/emtricitabine or aba-
cavir/lamivudine)plusanonnucleosidereversetranscriptaseinhibitor(efavirenz),aritonavir-
boosted protease inhibitor (atazanavir or darunavir), or an integrase strand transfer inhibitor
(raltegravir). Alternatives in each class are recommended for patients with or at risk of
certain concurrent conditions. CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA level should be monitored,
as should engagement in care, ART adherence, HIV drug resistance, and quality-of-care
indicators. Reasons for regimen switching include virologic, immunologic, or clinical fail-
ure and drug toxicity or intolerance. Confirmed treatment failure should be addressed
promptly and multiple factors considered.
Conclusion New recommendations for HIV patient care include offering ART to all
patients regardless of CD4 cell count, changes in therapeutic options, and modifica-
tions in the timing and choice of ART in the setting of opportunistic illnesses such as
cryptococcal disease and tuberculosis.
JAMA. 2012;308(4):387-402 www.jama.com
d persons.
eginterferon alfa
n routinely used
nfected persons.
ed with didano-
ng toxicity with
clear whether
ribavirin is less
th abacavir than
itionoftheHCV
previr to pegin-
virin improves
for genotype 1
drug interaction profile.106
Recomm
dations for initial regimen in the ab
specific circumstances are sum
rized in BOX 2.
MONITORING
Suppression of plasma HIV-1 RN
less than 50 copies/mL by 24 w
should occur with effective therapy
gardless of prior treatment exp
ence. No recent work has defined
optimal frequency of monitoring i
source-rich economies, despite the
g monitor-
s (telapre-
used with
actions are
known to
sed or de-
he drugs.
or drug in-
s is impor-
s been fo-
surements,
e entry into
nitoring of
e ART ad-
ationshave
virologicfailuretoconfirmsuppression
of viremia below 50 copies/mL (AIa).
CD4 cell count should be moni-
toredatleastevery3monthsafterini-
tiation of therapy, especially among
patients with less than 200/µL, to de-
termine the need for primary oppor-
tunistic infection prophylaxis (BIII).
Onceviralloadissuppressedfor1year
andCD4cellcountisstableat350/µL
or greater, HIV-1 RNA and CD4 cell
countcanbemonitoredatintervalsof
up to 6 months in patients with de-
pendable adherence (CIII).
Detectable HIV-1 RNA (Ͼ50 copies/
mL) during therapy should be con-
firmedinasubsequentsamplebetween
e end of
Interna-
Society–
USA (IAS-USA) guidelines reflects new
data informing consideration of when to
initiate ART, new options for initial and
www.jama.com
rtium of At-
w York Uni-
d Columbia
urgeons (Dr
red Hospital
lia (Dr Hoy);
ne, Switzer-
a San Diego
an) and Vet-
System (Dr
Fernandez/
ol and Fun-
a (Dr Cahn);
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Dr Eron);
University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland (Dr Gu¨n-
thard); Academic Medical Center University of Am-
sterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (Dr Reiss); Os-
pedale Luigi Sacco-Milano, Milan, Italy (Dr Rizzardini);
The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Bal-
timore, Maryland (Dr Thomas); International Antivi-
ral Society–USA (Ms Jacobsen) and University of Cali-
fornia San Francisco (Dr Volberding), San Francisco.
Corresponding Author: Melanie A. Thompson, MD,
AIDS Research Consortium of Atlanta, 131 Ponce de
Leon Ave NE, Ste 130, Atlanta, GA 30308 (drmt
@mindspring.com).
JAMA, July 25, 2012—Vol 308, No. 4 387
I	
  farmaci	
  equivalenP	
  
Principio Attivo
Nome
Commerciale
Scadenza
CCP*
lamivudina Epivir® 8/8/2011
ritonavir Norvir® 9/9/2012
nevirapina Viramune® 4/2/2013
lamivudina/AZT Combivir® 18/3/2013
efavirenz Sustiva® 20/11/2013
abacavir Ziagen® 9/7/2014
lopinavir/ritonavir Kaletra® 14/12/2015
emtricitabina Emtriva® 31/1/2016
enfuvirtide Fuzeon® 30/4/2018
efavirenz/emtricit./
tenofovir
Atripla® 3/8/2018
darunavir Prezista® 24/8/2018
*certificati complementari di protezione
Market share mercato internazionale anno 2010
% sul volume totale delle prescrizioni
Fonte:	
  Assogenerici	
  
PI monotherapy
PDT	
  Regione	
  Lombardia	
  2012	
  
??????	
  
Ci	
  sono	
  poi	
  gli	
  altri	
  dubbi….e	
  la	
  cruda	
  realtà	
  
Italia vs USA: spectrum of engagement in HIV care
USA Italia
 
…..e	
  quindi?	
  
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PPT Rizzardini "HAART, sostenibilità di un miracolo"

  • 1.                                                                               HAART  sostenibilità  di  un  miracolo   Milano,  22  marzo  2013   Giuliano Rizzardini Dipartimento Malattie Infettive Ospedale Luigi Sacco, Milano School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg  
  • 2. L’  inizio  della  storia  
  • 5. Il  compimento  del  miracolo  
  • 6. Per-person survival gains with treatment in patients with AIDS compared with gains associated with interventions for other common diseases in the United States Walensky  RP,  et  al.  J  Infect  Dis,  2006  
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.       Ma  il  miracolo  è  sostenibile  ?  
  • 12. Il contesto di riferimento: la crisi economica mondiale
  • 13.
  • 14. CRISI DEL WELFARE STATE IL SISTEMA SANITARIO E’ DIFFICILMENTE SOSTENIBILE
  • 15. AL 2030 G-7 Eu (ITA, FRA, GER, UK) : +3 p.p. sul Pil Canada: oltre +3 p.p. di Pil Giappone: +3 p.p. Usa: poco meno di +4,5 p.p. AL 2050 G-7 Eu: circa +9 p.p. sul Pil Usa: poco meno +13 p.p. Proiezioni FMI costo sistemi sanitari
  • 16. Spesa  pro  capite  in  $  PPP   $0,00   $1.000,00   $2.000,00   $3.000,00   $4.000,00   $5.000,00   $6.000,00   $7.000,00   $8.000,00   $9.000,00   $10.000,00   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   Australia     Brasile   Russia   India   Cina   Sudafrica   Canada   Giappone   USA   Italia   Francia   Germania   Spagna   Regno  Unito   Norvegia   Svezia   Svizzera   Fonte: WHO, National Health Accounts, 2013, rielaborazione CREMS BRICS USA
  • 18. Anno Debito   Pubblico   (milioni   di  €) PIL   (milioni   di  €) 2007 1.602.115 1.546.177 2008 1.666.603 1.567.761 2009 1.763.864 1.519.702 2010 1.843.015 1.548.816 Fonte:  Ministero  dell'economia  e  delle  finanze   PIL/debito  pubblico  italiano  
  • 19. 1980   Cossiga,   Forlani   21,1%   118.038   58,0%   1981   Forlani,   Spadolini   18,7%   146.410   60,1%   1982   Spadolini,   Fanfani   16,3%   186.961   65,0%   1983   Fanfani,  Craxi   15,0%   235.520   70,3%   1984   Craxi   10,6%   284.825   74,4%   1985   Craxi   8,6%   346.005   80,5%   1986   Craxi   6,1%   401.499   84,5%   1987   Craxi,  Fanfani,   Goria   4,6%   460.418   88,6%   1988   Goria,  De  Mita   5,0%   522.732   90,5%   1989   De  Mita,   Andreo]   6,6%   589.995   93,1%   1990   Andreo]   6,1%   667.848   94,8%   1991   Andreo]   6,4%   755.011   98,1%   1992   Andreo],   Amato   5,4%   849.920   105,0%   1993   Amato,  Ciampi   4,2%   959.713   115,1%   1994   Ciampi,   Berlusconi   3,9%   1.069.415   121,2%   Anno     Presidente   Consiglio   Inflazi one   Debito   (milioni  €)   Rapporto  debito/PIL   1995   Berlusconi,   Dini   5,4%   1.151.489   120,9%   1996   Dini,  Prodi   3,9%   1.213.508   120,2%   1997   Prodi   1,7%   1.238.172   117,4%   1998   Prodi,  D'Alema   1,8%   1.254.388   114,2%   1999   D'Alema   1,6%   1.281.550   113,0%   2000   D'Alema,   Amato   2,6%   1.300.269   108,5%   2001   Amato,   Berlusconi   2,7%   1.358.351   108,2%   2002   Berlusconi   2,4%   1.368.897   105,1%   2003   Berlusconi   2,5%   1.394.339   103,9%   2004   Berlusconi   2,0%   1.445.826   103,4%   2005   Berlusconi   1,7%   1.514.408   105,4%   2006   Berlusconi,   Prodi   2,0%   1.584.093   106,1%   2007   Prodi   1,7%   1.602.114   103,1%   2008   Prodi,   Berlusconi   3,2%   1.666.637   105,8%   2009   Berlusconi   0,7%   1.763.676   116,1%   2010   Berlusconi   1,6%   1.842.856   118,7%   2011   Berlusconi,   Monb   2,7%   1.897.946   120,1%                   Fonte:  Banca  d'Italia,  Istat  
  • 20. Pil 2010 Euro/mld 1.556,00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Pil reale (Euro/mld) 1.565,34 1.534,03 1.538,63 1.546,98 1.559,14 1.575,17 1.595,19 1.619,35 1.647,79 1.680,75 Pil reale var % 0,60% -2,00% 0,30% 0,54% 0,79% 1,03% 1,27% 1,51% 1,76% 2,00% Pil pro-capite (Euro) 25.819,36 25.182,62 25.149,93 25.187,94 25.295,50 25.472,44 25.719,22 26.036,99 26.427,50 26.893,27 Pil pro-capite var % -2,47% -0,13% 0,15% 0,43% 0,70% 0,97% 1,24% 1,50% 1,76% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Pil reale (Euro/mld) 1.713,69 1.746,60 1.779,43 1.812,17 1.844,79 1.877,26 1.909,55 1.941,63 1.973,47 2.005,05 Pil reale var % 1,96% 1,92% 1,88% 1,84% 1,80% 1,76% 1,72% 1,68% 1,64% 1,60% Pil pro-capite (Euro) 27.361,39 27.831,21 28.302,09 28.773,43 29.244,69 29.715,40 30.185,11 30.653,41 31.119,88 31.584,09 Pil pro-capite var % 1,74% 1,72% 1,69% 1,67% 1,64% 1,61% 1,58% 1,55% 1,52% 1,49% -2,00% = acquisito = proiezioni di crescita riportate nel Programma di Stabilità (contenuto in Def-2011) = più recente stima di consuntivo = stima di consenso non ancora incorporata in documenti uffiicali di finanza pubblica La crescita
  • 21. Fondo  Monetario  Internazionale:  previsioni  per  l’Italia   Maggio  2012  
  • 22. FUNZIONI   1990   2009   Variazione   Servizi  generali   12,8%   13,4%   0,6%   Difesa   6,8%   7,1%   0,3%   Ordine  pubblico  e  sicurezza   8,9%   7,9%   -­‐1,1%   Affari  economici   5,1%   4,5%   -­‐0,6%   Protezione  dell'ambiente   2,9%   3,3%   0,4%   Abitazioni  e  territorio   1,7%   1,9%   0,0%   Sanità   32,3%   37,0%   4,7%   Protezione  sociale   4,2%   5,0%   0,8%   A]vità  ricr.,  culturali,  di  culto   2,2%   2,4%   0,1%   Istruzione   23,1%   17,7%   -­‐5,4%   Piero  Giarda, Elementi per una revisione della spesa pubblica spesa  per  consumi  colleOvi,     produzione  di  servizi  pubblici  cedub  a  btolo  gratuito  al  cigadino  (2012)    
  • 23. 71,3 75,7 80,6 82,4 93,2 93,2 97,6 101,6 104,2 105,6 106,9 108,0 107,0 107,9 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Importo  del  finanziamento  (€/miliardi) Italia, fonte ministero della salute 106.213.749
  • 24. 24 Un ulteriore preoccupazione: la sanità regionalizzata
  • 26.
  • 27. Mean annual expenditure per patient for selected chronic diseases in France
  • 28. Mean annual expenditure per patient for selected chronic diseases in France
  • 29. Il  contesto  lombardo  (punto  di  vista  RL)   0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 10,000.00 12,000.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total cost and percentage impact per year Euros HAART Outpatient visits Admission Other drugs
  • 30. Il  contesto  lombardo  (punto  di  vista  RL)   The cost of HIV disease in Northern Italy 2007-2009 Year Euros P<0.0001 P=0.0002
  • 31. Andamento  spesa  annua  pazienP  HIV+  e  totale  pazienP  traRaP  HIV+  dal   2004  al  2012   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   N°   pz.   HIV+   tragab   17.955   18.544   19.849   20.917   21.721   22.653   23.803   24.920            26.222     Spesa   pro   capite   pz.   HIV+   tragab   [€]   5.135   5.747   5.960   6.682   7.113   7.484,16  (1)   7.351,74  (2)   7.886,32  (1)   7.749,60  (2)   7.782,16  (1)   7.556,80  (2)    7.681,45  (1)   7.839,84  (2)     Spesa   totale   p z .   H I V +   tragab  [€]   92.200.976   106.566.894   118.295.815   139.758.191   154.503.861   169.538.677   187.718.193   193.931.438    201.423.090     Incremento   della   spesa   totale   -­‐   15,58%   11,01%   18,14%   10,55%   9,73%   10,72%   3,31%   3,86%   (1)  Dato  medio,  (2)  Dato  mediano.   .  
  • 32. Costo  tragamento     farmacologico  per  HIV   in  Lombardia  (file  F)   200   milioni   di   euro,   per   il   s e r v i z i o   s a n i t a r i o   e q u i v a l e n t e   a l   finanziamento   dell’Azienda   Ospedaliera   della   Provincia   di  Lodi   1.         Presidio  di  Casalpusterlengo   2.         Presidio  di  Codogno   3.         Presidio  di  Lodi   4.         Presidio  di  Sant'Angelo  Lodigiano  
  • 33. HIV-COI (Cost of Illness) •  Il costo complessivo della malattia (trattamento File F, ricoveri, farmaceutica territoriale, specialistica ambulatoriale, prevenzione e test) dal punto di vista della Regione Lombardia (senza il costo delle giornate di lavoro perse o l’indennità per inabilità/reddito di sostegno) si aggira (stima CREMS) su quasi 300 milioni di € pari all’1,7% delle intere risorse a disposizione dal SSR. •  Di questi, circa due terzi sono determinati da farmaci antiretrovirali.
  • 34. Le  risposte  per  una  sostenibilità  
  • 35. The squeeze on health spending (UK)
  • 36. Annual  UK  HIV  treatment  and   care  costs  could  reach  £750   million  by  2013  
  • 37. ClinicoEconomics and Outcomes Research New strategies for lowering the costs of antiretroviral treatment and care for people with HIV/AIDS in the United Kingdom Brian Gazzard1 Christiane Moecklinghoff2 Andrew Hill3 1 St Stephens Centre, Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, London, UK; 2 Janssen, Neuss, Germany; 3 Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, University of Liverpool, UK Abstract: In the UK, the annual cost of treatment and care for people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency virus (AIDS) rose by over 600% from £104 million in 1997 to £762 million in 2010; approximately two-thirds of the £762 million cost of treatment and care in 2010 was for the procurement of antiretrovirals and other related drugs.The number of people accessing care for HIV/AIDS rose from 22,000 in 2000 to 65,000 in 2009.Adoption of “test and treat” guidelines for treating all HIV-infected people with antiretro- virals would further increase the burden of costs. Given the current economic situation, there is now a new focus on strategies for treatment and care of people with HIV-1 infection which can maintain efficacy but at a lower cost. In this review, we propose three strategies which could potentially lower the costs of treatment and care, ie, stopping testing CD4 counts for patients with full HIV RNA suppression on antiretroviral treatment and recent CD4 counts above 350 cells/ L; more widespread use of generic antiretrovirals as replacements for patients currently taking patented versions; and use of darunavir-ritonavir monotherapy as a switch option for patients with full HIV RNA suppression on other antiretrovirals and no history of virological failure. However, it is important that high standards of clinical care are maintained despite cost-saving measures.Antiretrovirals with generic alternatives may have toxicity issues, eg, zidovudine and nevirapine. There could be ethical issues in starting patients on these drugs if they are currently tolerating other treatments. The use of darunavir-ritonavir monotherapy is not consistently recommended in international HIV treatment guidelines. Keywords: health economics, generics, darunavir-ritonavir monotherapy, nucleoside analogs, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors Dovepress R E V I E W open access to scientific and medical research Open Access Full Text Article
  • 39.
  • 40. London consortium Efavirenz   Preferred  first  line  treatment  in  all   naïve  paPents    unless:   §  Pabent  has  baseline  resistance   §  Pabent  wants  to  become   pregnant   §  Concern  over  CNS  side  effects   (previous  history  or  current   psychological  state)   If  switching    due  to  toxicity   recommend:   §  Boosted  atazanavir   §  Nevirapine    (within  CD4  criteria)   Kivexa   Preferred  first  line  treatment  in  all   naïve  paPents  unless:   §  HLA  B-­‐5701  posibve   §  Baseline  HIV  viral  load  >  100,000   copies/mL   §  Cardiovascular  (CVD)  risk  over  10   years  >10%  (before  adjustment   for  DAD  abacavir  risk)   §  Hepabbs  B:  HBsAg  +ve  or  HBV   DNA  +ve   §  Hepabbs  C:  Expecbng  to  start   HCV  treatment   Recommendabons  by  the  London  HIV  Consorbum  for    prescribing  anbretrovirals,  April  2011  
  • 41. Antiretroviral Treatment of Adult HIV Infection 2012 Recommendations of the International Antiviral Society–USA Panel Melanie A. Thompson, MD Judith A. Aberg, MD Jennifer F. Hoy, MBBS, FRACP Amalio Telenti, MD, PhD Constance Benson, MD Pedro Cahn, MD, PhD Joseph J. Eron Jr, MD Huldrych F. Gu¨nthard, MD Scott M. Hammer, MD Peter Reiss, MD, PhD Douglas D. Richman, MD Giuliano Rizzardini, MD David L. Thomas, MD Donna M. Jacobsen, BS Paul A. Volberding, MD S INCE THE FIRST ANTIRETROVIRAL drug was approved 25 years ago, improvements in the potency, tolerability, simplicity, and avail- ability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have resulted in dramatically reduced numbers of opportunistic diseases and deaths where ART is accessible.1 New data show that viral suppression due to ART results in decreased human immu- nodeficiencyvirus(HIV)transmissionon individual2 and population levels1 and that, when used consistently by HIV- sions of the “beginning of the end of AIDS.”6 This revision of the Interna- tionalAntiviral(formerlyAIDS)Society– USA (IAS-USA) guidelines reflects new data informing consideration of when to initiate ART, new options for initial and Context New trial data and drug regimens that have become available in the last 2 years warrant an update to guidelines for antiretroviral therapy (ART) in human immu- nodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected adults in resource-rich settings. Objective To provide current recommendations for the treatment of adult HIV in- fection with ART and use of laboratory-monitoring tools. Guidelines include when to start therapy and with what drugs, monitoring for response and toxic effects, special considerations in therapy, and managing antiretroviral failure. Data Sources, Study Selection, and Data Extraction Data that had been pub- lished or presented in abstract form at scientific conferences in the past 2 years were sys- tematically searched and reviewed by an International Antiviral Society–USA panel. The panel reviewed available evidence and formed recommendations by full panel consensus. Data Synthesis Treatment is recommended for all adults with HIV infection; the strength of the recommendation and the quality of the evidence increase with decreasing CD4 cell count and the presence of certain concurrent conditions. Recommended initial regi- mens include 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (tenofovir/emtricitabine or aba- cavir/lamivudine)plusanonnucleosidereversetranscriptaseinhibitor(efavirenz),aritonavir- boosted protease inhibitor (atazanavir or darunavir), or an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (raltegravir). Alternatives in each class are recommended for patients with or at risk of certain concurrent conditions. CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA level should be monitored, as should engagement in care, ART adherence, HIV drug resistance, and quality-of-care indicators. Reasons for regimen switching include virologic, immunologic, or clinical fail- ure and drug toxicity or intolerance. Confirmed treatment failure should be addressed promptly and multiple factors considered. Conclusion New recommendations for HIV patient care include offering ART to all patients regardless of CD4 cell count, changes in therapeutic options, and modifica- tions in the timing and choice of ART in the setting of opportunistic illnesses such as cryptococcal disease and tuberculosis. JAMA. 2012;308(4):387-402 www.jama.com d persons. eginterferon alfa n routinely used nfected persons. ed with didano- ng toxicity with clear whether ribavirin is less th abacavir than itionoftheHCV previr to pegin- virin improves for genotype 1 drug interaction profile.106 Recomm dations for initial regimen in the ab specific circumstances are sum rized in BOX 2. MONITORING Suppression of plasma HIV-1 RN less than 50 copies/mL by 24 w should occur with effective therapy gardless of prior treatment exp ence. No recent work has defined optimal frequency of monitoring i source-rich economies, despite the g monitor- s (telapre- used with actions are known to sed or de- he drugs. or drug in- s is impor- s been fo- surements, e entry into nitoring of e ART ad- ationshave virologicfailuretoconfirmsuppression of viremia below 50 copies/mL (AIa). CD4 cell count should be moni- toredatleastevery3monthsafterini- tiation of therapy, especially among patients with less than 200/µL, to de- termine the need for primary oppor- tunistic infection prophylaxis (BIII). Onceviralloadissuppressedfor1year andCD4cellcountisstableat350/µL or greater, HIV-1 RNA and CD4 cell countcanbemonitoredatintervalsof up to 6 months in patients with de- pendable adherence (CIII). Detectable HIV-1 RNA (Ͼ50 copies/ mL) during therapy should be con- firmedinasubsequentsamplebetween e end of Interna- Society– USA (IAS-USA) guidelines reflects new data informing consideration of when to initiate ART, new options for initial and www.jama.com rtium of At- w York Uni- d Columbia urgeons (Dr red Hospital lia (Dr Hoy); ne, Switzer- a San Diego an) and Vet- System (Dr Fernandez/ ol and Fun- a (Dr Cahn); University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (Dr Eron); University Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland (Dr Gu¨n- thard); Academic Medical Center University of Am- sterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands (Dr Reiss); Os- pedale Luigi Sacco-Milano, Milan, Italy (Dr Rizzardini); The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Bal- timore, Maryland (Dr Thomas); International Antivi- ral Society–USA (Ms Jacobsen) and University of Cali- fornia San Francisco (Dr Volberding), San Francisco. Corresponding Author: Melanie A. Thompson, MD, AIDS Research Consortium of Atlanta, 131 Ponce de Leon Ave NE, Ste 130, Atlanta, GA 30308 (drmt @mindspring.com). JAMA, July 25, 2012—Vol 308, No. 4 387
  • 42. I  farmaci  equivalenP   Principio Attivo Nome Commerciale Scadenza CCP* lamivudina Epivir® 8/8/2011 ritonavir Norvir® 9/9/2012 nevirapina Viramune® 4/2/2013 lamivudina/AZT Combivir® 18/3/2013 efavirenz Sustiva® 20/11/2013 abacavir Ziagen® 9/7/2014 lopinavir/ritonavir Kaletra® 14/12/2015 emtricitabina Emtriva® 31/1/2016 enfuvirtide Fuzeon® 30/4/2018 efavirenz/emtricit./ tenofovir Atripla® 3/8/2018 darunavir Prezista® 24/8/2018 *certificati complementari di protezione
  • 43. Market share mercato internazionale anno 2010 % sul volume totale delle prescrizioni Fonte:  Assogenerici  
  • 45.
  • 47. ??????   Ci  sono  poi  gli  altri  dubbi….e  la  cruda  realtà  
  • 48. Italia vs USA: spectrum of engagement in HIV care USA Italia
  • 49.
  • 50.