2010-2013 Semiconductor Market Forecast Seizing the economic & political momentum in Europe for Key Enabling Technologies

2010-2013 Semiconductor Market Forecast
Seizing the economic & political momentum
in Europe for Key Enabling Technologies
Brussels June 8th, 2010
ESIA & WSTS European Chapter - June 8th, 2010 © 2010 Copyright EECA-ESIA & WSTS. All rights Reserved.
1

Semiconductors: so what?

Economic momentum
Latest WSTS market forecast – hot off the press – a very good year and
a positive outlook in front of us.
Will Europe be able to capitalise on these market opportunities?
Why care? => S/c bellwether / key enabling technology: if you get it right
here, then there are good chances of getting it right elsewhere

Political momentum
Renewal of industrial/innovation policy also in Europe
Unique new political constellation
Key Enabling Technologies (KETs) initiative as test cases – from words
to deeds

In back up:
about ESIA and WSTS
unit growth forecast
distribution of European s/c market by application & EU Member State
List of KETs EC High Level Group members

2

1

Development World Semiconductor Market

Amounts in US$M Year on Year Growth in % CAGR
Spring 2010
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 09/'12
Americas 38.520 48.125 50.401 52.088 1,7 24,9 4,7 3,3 10,6
Europe 29.865 38.183 40.103 41.805 -21,9 27,9 5,0 4,2 11,9
Japan 38.300 44.756 47.277 49.187 -21,0 16,9 5,6 4,0 8,7
Asia Pacific 119.628 159.887 169.606 177.081 -3,5 33,7 6,1 4,4 14,0
Total World - $M 226.313 290.951 307.388 320.161 -9,0 28,6 5,6 4,2 12,3
Discrete Sem iconductors 14.175 18.429 19.242 20.275 -16,3 30,0 4,4 5,4 12,7
Optoelectronics 17.043 21.970 24.679 27.491 -4,8 28,9 12,3 11,4 17,3
Sensors 4.753 6.552 6.996 7.363 -7,0 37,8 6,8 5,2 15,7
Integrated Circuits 190.342 244.001 256.471 265.031 -8,8 28,2 5,1 3,3 11,7
Analog 32.001 42.502 44.833 46.736 -10,2 32,8 5,5 4,2 13,5
Micro 48.330 59.302 64.445 68.844 -9,1 22,7 8,7 6,8 12,5
Logic 65.215 76.986 81.494 84.673 -11,3 18,0 5,9 3,9 9,1
Memory 44.797 65.211 65.699 64.777 -3,3 45,6 0,7 -1,4 13,1
Total Products - $M 226.313 290.951 307.388 320.161 -9,0 28,6 5,6 4,2 12,3

Source: WSTS, ESIA

3


Sales Development from 1995 to 2012

40% 300
CAGR 6% Final Sales 2009 (01/2010)
& Autumn 2009 Forecast
2009 $226B -9%
20% 250 2010 $267B 18%
Sales (Billion Dollars)
Annual Growth Rate

2011 $292B 9%
2012 $313B 7%

0% 200
Spring-Forecast (05/2010)
2010 $291B 29%
2011 $307B 6%
-20% 150 2012 $320B 4%

-32%
-40% 100
1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: WSTS, ESIA

4

2

Development European Semiconductor Market

Sales Development from 1995 to 2012
45

40% CAGR 2%
Final Sales 2009 (01/2010)
& Autumn 2009 Forecast
39
2009 $30B -22%

Sales (Billion Dollars)
Annual Growth Rate

2010 $36B 19%
20%
2011 $39B 9%
2012 $41B 7%
33
Spring-Forecast (05/2010)
0%
2010 $38B 28%
2011 $40B 5%
27 2012 $42B 4%

-20%
-29%
21
1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: WSTS, ESIA

5


Sales Development by Application per Region
2009
n
tio
ica

ve
er
r

un

l
ute

oti

Industrial
tria
um
mm

tom
mp

10%
us
ns

Automotive ($23B)
Ind
Co
Co

Co

Au

7%
Americas 43% 20% 17% 7% 13% ($16B)

Japan 28% 19% 31% 10% 12% Computer
Consumer 42% ($95B)
19% ($42B))
Asia/Pacific 49% 24% 18% 3% 6%
Europe 33% 21% 9% 20% 17%
Communication
American and Asian market is mainly driven by computing. 22% ($50B)
Consumer plays a minor role and the rest is negligible.
Japanese and European market is more diversified.
Computer is also important, but
In Japan consumer is the main market
In Europe communication and automotive are main
markets, industrial is also important Source: WSTS, ESIA

6

3


Sales by Country in EMEA1) 1999 to 2009

14 1999 2003 2007 2009
Billions of Dollars per Year

12

10

8

6

4

2

W. Europe
Rest of

& Africa
Middle East
Italy
France
Germany

Nordic
Ireland

Eastern
Europe
UK &

1)
EMEA = Europe (incl. Russia), Middle East & Africa Source: WSTS, ESIA

7


Regional Change of Sales (consumption of chips)
60% Till 1993 Japan sales region #1, then
Asia/Pacific
(incl. China) replaced by the Americas
At that time the shift to Asia started
50%
Since 2001 Asia/Pacific – and here
Regional Share of Sales

mainly China, Taiwan and Korea –
Japan became the #1 region, due to shift of
40% electronic equipment production.
Americas Share of Europe till 2002 more or less
constant, then gradual loss of market
30% share in Europe.
The Chinese semiconductor market
Europe has passed the American and
20%
European in 2008 and the Japanese in
2009. Today about one quarter of the
total world wide microelectronic
10% production is shipped to China.
China
(as part of Asia/Pacific)
0%
1986 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: WSTS, ESIA

8

4


Regional Share of Production (Sales in USD, w/o Foundries)

2004 USA semiconductor companies
USA
2009 produced still nearly half of world
wide sales
Japan
Japan’s share now below one quarter
– slight increase again since 2004
South Korea
With the EU counted as one country,
just five countries in the world are
European Union controlling the microelectronic market.
Chinese companies produce <1%
Taiwan More then half of the Taiwanese
production comes from foundry
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% business (not included here)
Share

Share of production by country of origin (sales in US-Dollars):
99% of semiconductor sales belongs to companies from 5 countries in the world
Source: ZVEI, ESIA

9


Regional Share of Production (Waferstarts, incl. Foundries)
Highest loss of share for USA and EU,
Japan together -9%
Japan still #1 in wafer production capacity
Taiwan
Strongest growth of fab capacity in Taiwan,
China & Singapore, mainly driven by pure
South Korea play foundries
2004 Korean companies are producing nearly
USA
2009 only memory products
China’s share is with 9.9% significantly
China
driven by foreign companies (indigenous
<1%), up from nearly zero
European Union
European Union ranks #6 with 9.6% share
Singapore

Share 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Share of production by country of Wafer Fab (Wafer Starts, Area of Silicon):
97% of semiconductor production is located in 7 countries in the world
Source: ZVEI, ESIA

10

5

Seizing the economic momentum
Real GDP vs. Chip Market
[year-on-year growth rates]

5% Global real GDP 70%
[left y-axis]
60%
4%
50%
3% 40%
2% 30%
20%
1%
10%
0% 0%
-10%
-1% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 '10
-20%
-2% -30%
-3% -40%
Semiconductors about one
-50%
-4% Global Semiconductor Market quarter ahead of GDP
[right y-axis] -60%
-5% -70%

11

Seizing the economic momentum (2009 figures)
Semiconductors are a key enabling industry

- Internet Services - Broadcast
Providers Service Providers - Telecom
- Games WW$6300B / Europe $1600B Operators

Automotive / Industrial / Defense

Medical / Space
Semiconductors provide the
knowledge & technologies
that generate some 10% of
global GDP. Electronics
2009 World GDP=69800BUS$ (ppp based) WW$1100B /
Europe $150B
2009 European Union GDP=14800BUS$ (ppp based)

Semiconductors
Equipment $226B / Materials
WW$25B / Europe WW$38B /
$30B Europe $4B
Europe $3B

Source: IMF, ESIA, WSTS, IC Insights

12

6

Seizing the economic momentum
Semiconductors are a key enabling industry

Communications – Consumer - entertainment, radio,
wired and wireless, TV, VCR, personal or home appliance,
mobile, RF connectivity cameras, games, etc.
solutions (Bluetooth,
GPRS..),
telecommunications,
traditional telecom
equipment, home
networking equipment
Automotive –
powertrain, safety
management, body
and convenience,
engine controls
Industrial & entertainment...
Instrument -
lab, test, control
and
measurements

Semiconductors are for the Information Society what grain
was for the agrarian, and iron & steel were for the
Computer & Office -
industrial society…
society… mainframe, peripheral
office equipment and
personal computers

Shanghai Museum of Urban Development, 2004
Source WSTS

13

Seizing the political momentum

April 2010 - Industrial policy: no longer a taboo

President Barroso (II): reinforced EU economic governance
VP Tajani: new integrated strategy, as head of Competitiveness
group of Commissioners
Monti: A new recalibrated EU industrial competitiveness policy
Münchau: ideal conditions for new decision making - new
Commission, new EP, new treaty

⇒ whatever term is used, there is a new proactive interest in a mixture of
industrial and innovation policy in and for Europe
⇒ … and guess what…
⇒ This is something ESIA welcomes and has been promoting for a long time.
We already have an bottom-up approach that combines industrial and
innovation policies

14

7

Seizing the political momentum - 2005: Alternative scenarios based on
assessment of selected competitiveness factors

Global Strength of R&D Spending
European End-User R&D & innovation policies,
Industry research investment targets Pre-competitive Co-operation /
Global industry leadership, Partnership Effectiveness
Electronics value added driven Joint research and design centres,
framework programmes, technology
Globally Effective EU
Monetary Policies
Stability of exchange rates relative
Educational System Reinforcement
Curricula, industry-university research,
to other currencies
exchange programmes, brain retention

Strength of European Internal Target Investment Support /
Market Incentives Levels
End-user / consumer demand in Tax havens, access to capital,
Enlarged 25 EU Internal Market property incentives

EU Legislative Environment
Free & Fair Trade Policy Environment, safety & health,
Reciprocal world free trade European Labour Policies customs & security, IP rights
Environment, elimination of tariffs Sectoral flexibility of working hours
and employment conditions

15

Seizing the political momentum
ESIA & ‘KETs’ Recommendations & Actions

Mastering Innovation
Develop a European industrial innovation policy -
with nano- / microelectronics at its core

R&D Market Pull Manufacturing Education
Give priority to the Stimulate ‘market Launch a strategic Make micro- and
European-wide pull’ across Europe European industry nanoelectronics in
micro- / in chosen lead plan that aims at education an objective
nanoelectronics markets revitalising sc
for filling the European
R&D eligibility (Health and wellness; manufacturing
criteria, R&D in talent pipeline
transport and capabilities in Europe.
framework mobility; security and Upgrading /converting Stimulate science and
programmes, public- technology; awareness
safety; energy and of existing fabs.
private partnerships of the micro-/nano-
environment; Developing technology
(EUREKA, ETPs, JTIs),
electronics innovation
communication; capabilities for devices potential; foreign talent;
national infotainment) in areas where Europe research infrastructure
programmes has strengths. as invention incubators

Shaping the Future

16

8

Seizing the political momentum - ESIA & KETs

S/c industry is symptomatic of Europe’s challenges:
Lack of global level playing field & EU framework
conditions are leading to the potential loss of
attractiveness of Europe for the s/c industry.

Industrial/innovation policy applicable across many
sectors, potentially delivering answers to:

R&D recommendations - soaring R&D costs for European R&D
intensive industries)
Market pull - falling European market shares
Manufacturing - falling European production levels
Lack of a global playing field

17

Seizing the political momentum - ESIA & KETs

As markets surge, semiconductors are a test case for a
revived industrial / innovation policy
New Commission, New Parliament, new Treaty
Commission Key Enabling Technology initiative & High Level
Group
Cross sectoral & enabling,
‘Crisis’ comes from the Greeks and means ‘choice’,
Post-crisis is the opportunity to make that choice

18

9

Seizing the political momentum – key enabling technologies

Importance of KETs Defining KETs

Driving force of the development of Knowledge intensive (high R&D and
future goods and services capital expenditure)
Being at the forefront of Associated with highly-skilled
competitiveness, innovation, employment
knowledge-based economy. Multi-disciplinary, cutting across many
Modernisation of the industrial base technology areas, converging
and in the further strengthening of the Create multiplier effects
research base
Enabling process, good and service
Creating related eco-systems of SMEs. innovation and are of systemic
relevance.

Who are they?
Nanotechnology, Micro/ nanoelectronics, Photonics, Advanced materials,
Biotechnology

19

Conclusions / key messages

Economic momentum:
S/c industry is looking ahead again - WSTS forecasts a 29% growth
ww & a 28% growth in Europe for 2010, followed by two further growth
years.
Will Europe continue to lose market share & production levels? Can
the negative trend be reversed?
As a bellwether and enabling sector for the economy, companies are
forced to find solutions everywhere – Europe has it in its hands to
capture trends in Europe for this and other key enabling technologies
We all have to move fast– the time is now!

Political momentum:
New Commission, new EP, new EU Treaty
New industrial innovation policy (at last)
KETs & HLG as test case – let’s move from words to deeds in Europe!

20

10

Background info

21

About ESIA & WSTS

EECA-ESIA and WSTS: ESIA, the European Semiconductor Industry Association
holds an exclusive license agreement with the WSTS for the region of Europe, Middle
East and Africa (EMEA). WSTS monthly data in full product detail are available via
subscription.

ABOUT EECA-ESIA: The mission of the European Semiconductor Industry
Association (EECA-ESIA) is to represent, promote and defend the vital interests of
the European-based semiconductor industry and ensure its competitiveness in the
global market. The semiconductor industry provides the key enabling technologies at
the forefront of the development of the Information Society. This sector supports
around 115,000 jobs directly and up to 500,000 induced jobs in Europe, in a market
valued at over EUR 21bn ($30bn) in 2009. Website: www.eeca.eu

About WSTS: Established in 1986, WSTS is an organization of 65 semiconductor
companies from all over the world representing more then 80% of the world's
semiconductor market. Its mission is to provide timely, accurate and authentic
semiconductor market data on industry product shipments in a product line form
serving the broad marketing and executive needs, therefore documenting past - and
anticipating future business trends. More information on the WSTS website at
www.wsts.org

22

11


Sales Development by Application (1995 – 2009)

1995
Sales 1995 2009 CAGR 2009
Computer $11.6B $9.9B -1.1%
Communication $7.2B $6.2B -1.1%
Industrial Consumer $3.2B $2.6B -1.6%
Industrial
12% Automotive $2.4B $6.0B 6.9%
17%
Automotive Industrial & other* $4.0B $5.2B (-26%)
1.9%
Computer
9%
Total S/C
Computer $28B $30B 0.4% 33% (-18%)
42%
Consumer Micro** $6.5B Automotive
$9.7B 2.9%
11% Memory $10.6B 20% (-23%)
$5.0B -5.2%
Analog IC $3.8B $4.8B 1.7%

3 % er
Logic IC $3.6B $4.9B 2.3% Communication

um
Communication

)
21% (-18%)

9% ons
26% IC Total $24.5B $24.4B 0,0%

(-3
C
Discrete & Opto &
Sensors/Actuators $3.8B $5.4B 2.6%
* Other: Government (e.g. Military & Avionic)
** Microprocessors, Microcontroller & DSP

Source: WSTS, ESIA

23


IC Unit Development per Month (3MMA)
16
Overheated growth leads – in addition
to rising prices – to high excess
Again built up
14 inventory (extreme in 2000). The
of [excess] result are decreasing units and prices
Long term inventory? and as consequence collapsing sales.
growth
12 9% per year
Billions of ICs per Month

Best example 2001: Extreme crash of
total semiconductor market
10 Since mid 2005 IC unit development
again significantly above long term
Extreme growth trend, although no excess inventory
8 leads to extreme build up was reported.
excess inventory
Since 10.2008 strongest collapse and
6
since 3.2009 strongest growth ever
Market collapse recognized in semiconductor history.
due to burn of Consequence: In spite of the worst
4
excess inventory economic crises since more then 60
years, IC units reached the long term
2 trend again since 12.2009.
1991 1995 2000 2005
Source: WSTS, ESIA

24

12

Key Enabling Technologies

Semiconductors are for the Information Society what grain was
for the agrarian, and iron & steel were for the industrial society…
society…

Shanghai Museum of Urban Development, 2004

“Key Enabling Technologies such as… semiconductors…are of
as… semiconductors…
exceptional importance for being at the forefront of managing
the shift to a low carbon, knowledge-based economy… They are
knowledge- economy…
the main drivers… needed for addressing major societal
drivers…
challenges. Therefore the Commission proposes to develop and
implement a European vision for the industrial deployment of
such technologies in the EU.”
EU.”

EU Commission Communication on KETs, Sept. 2009
KETs,

25

ESIA

ESIA Mission
To represent, promote and defend “The Semiconductor Voice of Europe”
the vital interests of the
European-based semiconductor
industry and to ensure its
competitiveness in the global
market

26

13

ESIA Membership

S/C Companies National Associations Research Institutes
ALTIS SEMICONDUCTOR INTEL CORPORATION
AETIC (Spain) FRAUNHOFER (Germany)

AGORIA (Belgium)
ARM MICRON TECHNOLOGY
IMEC (Belgium)
ANIE (Italy)

ATMEL MICRONAS
FEEI (Austria)

LETI Grenoble
NUMONYX
ROBERT BOSCH
Hellenic SIA (Greece)

NXP SEMICONDUCTORS
FREESCALE SEMICONDUCTORS
NMI (UK and Ireland)
RENESAS TECHNOLOGY

GLOBALFOUNDRIES
SITELESC (France)
STMICROELECTRONICS

INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS ZVEI (Germany)

27

The changing global landscape for the SC industry

Rapidly changing global landscape for the
Semiconductor industry
Since 10 years, Europe is steadily loosing market shares
Slowing down of market growth in value terms
Increasing demand from consumer applications creates market potential
while generating SC price decrease
Increased pace of innovation & electronic product penetration
Skyrocketing cost increases are forcing alliances: CAPEX 20% sales
Deverticalisation of the value chain and financial markets
The landscape is driving the industry to 3 different manufacturing models,
while maintaining and enhancing its process expertise is key
Memories and microprocessors manufacturing
Logic products manufacturing
More than Moore manufacturing

28

14

KETs - HighLevelGroup composition

President: Mr Jean THERME (Director of CEA (French Atomic Energy
Commission) in Grenoble).
Members:
Prof. Luigi AMBROSIO, (Director of the Institute for Composite Biomedical Materials).
Mr Giorgio ANANIA (Chairman of Cube Optics). Dr. A-J AUBERTON-HERVE (CEO of
SOITEC). Mr Andrea BENASSI (Secretary General of UEAPME). Mr Peter BAUER (CEO
of Infineon). Dr. Daniel BERNARD (Scientific Vice President of ARKEMA). Mr Carlo
BOZOTTI (CEO of STMicroelectronics). Prof. Hans-Jörg BULLINGER (President of
Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft). Dr. Spase DRAKUL (CEO of THYIA Tehnologije). Lord (Paul)
DRAYSON, State Minister for Science and Innovation. Mr Javier EGUREN (CEO of
NICOLAS-CORREA). Ms Anne De GUIBERT (Research Director of Saft Group). Dr.
Winfried HOFFMANN (President of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association,
EPIA). Jochen HOMANN, Staatssekretär in the Ministry of Economics. Dr. Andre
KOLTERMANN (Group Vice President of Süd-Chemie). Prof. Erkki LEPPÄVUORI
(President of VTT Technical Research Center of Finland). Mr Jan MENGELERS (President
of the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research). Mr Jim O’HARA
(General Manager Intel Ireland). Mr J Richard PARKER (Director at Rolls Royce). Mr
Richard PELLY (Chief Executive of European Investment Fund). Dr. Wolfgang
PLISCHKE (Board Member of BAYER). M. Luc ROUSSEAU, General Director in the
Ministry of Industry. Mr Frank ROZELAAR (Non-executive Chairman of QinetiQ). Mr Marc
van SANDE (Chief Technology Officer and Vice President of UMICORE). Mr Gerald
SCHOTMAN (Chief Technology Officer of Royal Dutch Shell). Dr. Lars STROMBERG
(Vice President Vattenfall AB).
29

15

2010-2013 Semiconductor Market Forecast Seizing the economic & political momentum in Europe for Key Enabling Technologies

Empfohlen

Empfohlen

Weitere ähnliche Inhalte

Was ist angesagt?

Was ist angesagt? (17)

Andere mochten auch

Andere mochten auch (6)

Ähnlich wie 2010-2013 Semiconductor Market Forecast Seizing the economic & political momentum in Europe for Key Enabling Technologies

Ähnlich wie 2010-2013 Semiconductor Market Forecast Seizing the economic & political momentum in Europe for Key Enabling Technologies (20)

Mehr von Stephan Cadene

Mehr von Stephan Cadene (9)

Kürzlich hochgeladen

Kürzlich hochgeladen (20)