1. St. Charles County
Association of Realtors
The Economic and Housing
Outlook for St. Charles
June 6, 2012
William R. Emmons
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
William.R.Emmons@stls.frb.org
These comments do not necessarily represent the views of the
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System.
1

2. The Economic and Housing
Outlook For St. Charles County
 Despite weak national and regional recoveries, the St.
Charles County economy remains one of the strongest
in the state.
 Unemployment rate at 6.3 percent, vs. 8.1 nationally
(April).
 Employment growth has resumed.
 The St. Charles housing market faces significant
challenges to recover its pre-recession vigor.
 Homebuilding, house prices, home sales still weak.
 Mortgage performance good, not great.
 The key questions:
 Will employment and income growth pick up again?
2
 How will the aging population affect the market?

3. U.S. Unemployment Remains Stubbornly
High—Especially Broader Measures
U6 Unemployment Measure: Unemployed+Marginally Attached+Part Time
Percent of labor force plus marginally attached
U3 Offical Unemployment Rate
Percent of labor force
18 18
Percent
16 16
Broad measure:
14.8%
14 14
12 12
10 10
Official measure:
8 8.2% 8
Gray shading
indicates periods of 6 6
national economic
recession as defined
by the National 4 4
Bureau of Economic
Research.
2 2
00 05 10 15 3
Sources:ofBureau of Labor Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Bureau Labor Statistics Monthly data through May 2012

4. Weakest Regions Are the Far West,
Southeast, and Upper Midwest
Highest unemployment
Darker shading represents a higher level of unemployment. US unemployment rate in April 2012: 8.1% rate after 2.75 years of
economic recovery
since 1940
4
Source: GeoFred (http://geofred.stlouisfed.org) Monthly data for April 2012

5. We’re Making Slow Progress
Closing A Huge Employment Gap
U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Millions of employed persons
Millions of 150 Trend implied 150
employed 145 by 2000s 145
persons expansion
140 140
135 2009-12 trend: On 135
Trend implied track to hit previous
130 130
by 1990s trend line in 2018
125 expansion 125
120 120
115 115
Gray shading
indicates periods of
national economic
110 110
recession as defined
by the National 105 105
Bureau of Economic
Research.
100 100
90 95 00 05 10 15 20 5
Source: Haver Analytics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly data through May 2012

6. St. Charles County Unemployment Rate
Is Lowest In the Region: 6.3% in April
Darker shading represents a
higher level of unemployment.
St. Charles County has the lowest
unemployment rate within a 50-
mile radius—6.3% in April 2012.
6
Source: GeoFred (http://geofred.stlouisfed.org) Monthly data for April 2012

7. Employment in St. Charles County
Exceeds Its Pre-Recession Peak
Number of Employed Persons in St. Charles County MO
Thousands, seasonally adjusted
Thousands 190 190
of employed
persons St. Charles
185 County 185
180 180
175 175
170 170
Gray shading
indicates periods of
national economic
recession as defined 165 165
by the National
Bureau of Economic
Research.
160 160
00 05 10 15 7
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Statistics /Haver Analytics
Source: Bureau of Labor Quarterly data through Q1.2012

8. Rest of the St. Louis Metro Area
Remains Below Pre-Recession Peaks
St. Charles County Employment
St. Louis County Employment
St. Louis City Employment
Jefferson County Employment
Indexes 120 120
equal 100 in
2000 115 St. Charles 115
County
110 110
105 105
Jefferson
100 100
County
95 95
Gray shading 90 St. Louis 90
indicates periods of
national economic County
recession as defined 85 85
by the National
Bureau of Economic St. Louis City
Research.
80 80
00 05 10 15 8
Source: Bureau ofBLS /Haver
Sources: Labor Statistics Quarterly data through Q1.2012

9. Homebuilding Activity Remains
Depressed Throughout the Midwest
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI Private Building Permits Issued (seas'ly adj)
St. Louis MO-IL Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Kansas City MO-KS Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Springfield MO Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Number of 15000 15000
housing 10000 10000
units
5000 5000
2000 Chicago 2000
St. Louis
1000 1000
Kansas City
Gray shading 500 500
indicates periods of
national economic Springfield MO
recession as defined
by the National 200 200
Bureau of Economic
Research.
100 100
00 05 10 15 9
Source: Census Bureau /Haver
Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012

10. St. Louis-Area Homebuilding
Declined Less Than Elsewhere
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN-WI Private Building Permits Issued (seas'ly adj)
St. Louis MO-IL Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Kansas City MO-KS Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Springfield MO Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Indexes: 110 110
100 100
Average 90 90
level in 2005 80 80
equals 100 70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
St. Louis
30 30
Springfield MO
Kansas City
Gray shading 20 20
indicates periods of
national economic
recession as defined Chicago
by the National
Bureau of Economic
Research.
10 10
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 10
Source: Census Bureau /Haver
Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012

11. St. Charles CO Peak-to-Trough Decline
Relatively Mild Thru 2010; Weak 2011
St Charles County Private Building Permits Issued (= 100 in 2004)
Jackson County Private Building Permits Issued (= 100 in 2005)
St Louis County Private Building Permits Issued (= 100 in 2004)
Greene County Private Building Permits Issued (= 100 in 2005)
Indexes: 100 100
Average level 90 90
in 2004 equals 80 80
100 in St. 70 70
Charles and St. 60 60
Louis Counties; 50 50
average level
in 2005 equals 40 40
100 in Jackson Greene County
and Greene (Springfield)
30 30
Counties St. Louis County
St. Charles County
Gray shading 20 20
indicates periods of Jackson County
national economic
recession as defined (Kansas City)
by the National
Bureau of Economic
Research.
10 10
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 11
Source: Census Bureau /Haver
Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012

12. St. Charles County Remains #1 or #2
Homebuilding County in Missouri
St Charles County Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Jackson County Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
St Louis County Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Greene County Private Building Permits Issued (seasonally adjusted)
Number of 5000 5000
housing 4000 4000
units
3000 3000
2000 2000
St. Charles County
1000 1000
Jackson County
(Kansas City)
Gray shading
500 St. Louis County 500
indicates periods of
national economic
recession as defined Greene County
by the National (Springfield)
Bureau of Economic
Research.
200 200
00 05 10 15 12
Source: Census Bureau /Haver
Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012

13. St. Charles Home Prices Have Tracked
Regional and National Trends—Still Weak
Dollars
13
Sources: Zillow; St. Charles County Association of Realtors Annual data through 2011

14. St. Charles Home Sales Also
Tracked National Sales
Number of
homes
14
Sources: National Association of Realtors; St. Charles County Association of Realtors Annual data through 2011

15. March 2006: At the Peak of the Housing
Boom, Mortgage Conditions Were Pristine
Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County
March 2006
15
Source: Lender Processing Services

16. March 2007: Falling House Prices,
Slowing Economy Begin to Show
Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County
March 2007
16
Source: Lender Processing Services

17. March 2008: Financial Crisis Is Underway,
Economy Has Entered Recession
Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County
March 2008
17
Source: Lender Processing Services

18. March 2009: At Its Worst, Mortgage Distress
Was Concentrated in SW, SE, and MW
Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County
March 2009
18
Source: Lender Processing Services

19. March 2010: At Its Worst, Mortgage
Distress Was Concentrated in SW, SE, and
MW
Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County
March 2010
19
Source: Lender Processing Services

20. March 2011: Mortgage Distress Remains
Elevated Despite Economic Stabilization
Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County
March 2011
20
Source: Lender Processing Services

21. March 2012: Mortgage Distress Remains
Elevated Despite Economic Stabilization
Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County
March 2012
21
Source: Lender Processing Services

22. Share of Missouri Mortgages
30+ Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
March 2005
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
22

23. Share of Missouri Mortgages
30+ Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
March 2006
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
23

24. Share of Missouri Mortgages
30+ Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
March 2007
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
24

25. Share of Missouri Mortgages
30+ Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
March 2008
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
25

26. Share of Missouri Mortgages
30+ Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
March 2009
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
26

27. Share of Missouri Mortgages
30+ Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
March 2010
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
27

28. Share of Missouri Mortgages
30+ Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
March 2011
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
28

29. Share of Missouri Mortgages
30+ Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
March 2012
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
29

30. Judicial Foreclosure States Generally
Have Bigger Foreclosure Inventories
Percent of Mortgages 30+ Days Past Due or in Foreclosure, By County
March 2012
J J
J
J J J
J
J J
J J
J J J
J
J
J
J
J J
J
J
J 30
Source: Lender Processing Services

31. Share of Mortgages 30+
Days Delinquent or in
Foreclosure By ZIP Code
April 2012
Source:
Lender
Processing
Services
31

32. St. Charles County Employment
Doubled Between 1985 and 2005
St. Charles County Employment
St. Louis County Employment
St. Louis City Employment
Jefferson County Employment
Employed 600 600
persons in
St. Louis
500 500
thousands County
400 400
300 300
200 St. Charles 200
St. Louis City County
150 150
Gray shading Jefferson
100 100
indicates periods of County
national economic
recession as defined
by the National
Bureau of Economic
Research.
50 50
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 32
Sources:ofBLS /Haver
Source: Bureau Labor Statistics Monthly data through April 2012

33. Is the St. Charles County Job-
Creation Miracle Finished?
St. Charles County Five-Year Annualized Employment Growth Rate
Percent change from 60 months ago, annualized
St. Louis MSA Minus St. Charles CO Five-Year Annualized Employment Growth Rate
Percent change from 60 months ago, annualized
Percent change 6 6
from five years
ago, 5 5
annualized
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 St. Charles 1
Gray shading County
indicates periods of 0 0
national economic
recession as defined St. Louis metropolitan
by the National -1 -1
Bureau of Economic area excluding St.
Research. Charles County
-2 -2
90 95 00 05 10 15 20 33
Source: Haver Analytics
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly data through April 2012

34. Population Growth Has Slowed
St. Charles County Resident Population
St. Louis County Resident Population
St. Louis City Resident Population
Jefferson County Resident Population
Residents 1100000 1100000
1000000 St. Louis 1000000
900000 County 900000
800000 800000
700000 700000
600000 600000
500000 500000
400000 St. Louis City 400000
St. Charles
County
300000 300000
Jefferson
200000 County 200000
100000 100000
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 34
Sources: Census Bureau /Haver
Sources: CEN/H Quarterly data through Q1.2012

35. Aging of the Population Will Affect
St. Charles County, Too
State of
Percent
Missouri
St. Louis
County
St. Charles
County
Data Projections
35
Source: Census Bureau Annual data through 2010; projections through 2030

36. Has St. Charles Housing Market Reached A
Turning Point—Or Another False Recovery?
Units
36
Source: St. Charles County Association of Realtors Monthly data through April 2012

37. In Sum: St. Charles County Economy
and Housing Market Face Challenges
 Despite weak national and regional recoveries, the St.
Charles County economy remains one of the strongest
in the state.
 Unemployment rate at 6.3 percent, vs. 8.1 nationally
(April).
 Employment growth has resumed.
 The St. Charles housing market faces significant
challenges to recover its pre-recession vigor.
 Homebuilding, house prices, home sales still weak.
 Mortgage performance good, not great.
 The key questions:
 Will employment and income growth pick up again?
37
 How will the aging population affect the market?