Initial Thinking on City of 3 million Transition to 2055

1. Ekurhuleni 2055
Growth and Development Strategy
Presentation to Economic Stakeholders for Initial Input &
Comment
Shahid Solomon
Strategy Department
7 may 2012

2. 2. What is a Growth &
Development Strategy?

3. Key Aspects of a Growth and Development
Strategy
GROWTH:
More people, from 3 million today to 6
million by 2055
Bigger Economy, more wealth &
investment
Expanding the City & making it
more dense
DEVELOPMENT:
Change to deal with new risks &
opportunities
Transformation to a more inclusive
society
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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4. Key Aspects of a Growth and Development
Strategy
STRATEGY:
What
 Goals, objectives, targets for growth & development
How
 Leadership
 Delivering services & infrastructure
 Regulating
Who
 Alone or in partnership
When: by 2020? By 2030? By 2055?
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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5. What is the difference between the Growth
and Development Strategy and the IDP?
The IDP is a detailed 5 year plan which is
linked to the municipal budget and
service delivery plans
The GDS is a broad brush long term 10 –
50 year plan that embraces all of
government and stakeholders
The GDS guides the IDP
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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6. Key Aspects of a Growth and Development
Strategy: A FRAMEWORK
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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7. Today’s Focus: what are economic
implications of the GDS ?
Other Work Streams:
 Urban Planning & Built Environment 8 May 2012 (Morning)
 Transport (Taxi Industry) 9 May 2012 (Afternoon)
 Transport & Logistics 9 May 2012 (Evening)
 City Governance & Financial Sustainability 10 May 2012
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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8. 2. Ekurhuleni’s Development
Journey

9. Four time frames
Four time frames:
 Natures Gift
 Towns, Mines & Factories 1905 – 1955
 City Region, Freeways & Malls 1955 – 2012
 Place of People Prosperity 2012-2055
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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10. Natures Gift
KEY CHARACTERISTICS DRIVERS
• Gentle slopes of grassy • Expression of Indigenous
highvelds Cultures
• Streams and wetlands • Seasonal Migration
• Reserves of coal and gold below • Rural Life Experiences
the ground
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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11. Towns, Mines & Factories 1905 –
1955
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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12. Towns, Mines & Factories 1905 –
1955
CHARACTERISTICS
 Main Reef Road
 Nine Towns
 Mines & Industries
 Hostels
 Townships
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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13. City Region, Freeways & Malls 1955 – 2012
+ 100 Years Since Modern Settlement
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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14. City Region, Freeways & Malls 1955 – 2012
+ 100 Years Since Modern Settlement
CHARACTERISTICS
 International airport,
 Regional Freeway system
 Mega Malls,
 Super Suburbs
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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15. 3. Gazing into the future

16. MEGATRENDS:
GLOBALISATION
More than 50% of world GDP generated
by trade in 2030
The world’s economic centre of gravity
will shift from the West to Asia
Chinese economy overtaking that of
the US by 2025 and India following close
behind
Africa catching up well by 2050
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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17. MEGATRENDS:
GLOBALISATION
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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18. MEGATRENDS:
GLOBAL WARMING
 Global warming to a maximum of 2 degrees, ever stricter control of
carbon emissions will take place
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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19. MEGATRENDS:
MORE EXPENSIVE ENERGY
 Pressure on oil supply - shift from a fossil fuel based economy to one
based on renewable energy
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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20. MEGATRENDS:
MORE EXPENSIVE ENERGY
 Energy expensive as a huge investment is made in an alternative energy
regime
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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21. MEGATRENDS:
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMATION
 Dematerialisation
 Imbedded Chips in everything
 3D Printing
 Hydrogen Fuel Cells
 Bio feedstock & fuels
 Membrane Technology
 Biotechnology
 Nanotechnology.
 Mass Customisation
 Localisation of Production
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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22. MEGATRENDS:
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMATION
Convergence of Biology (the last fronteir) Nanoscience &
Information Science
Artificial Intelligence: The Singularity
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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23. MEGATRENDS:
TOURISM STAYS WORLDS BIGGEST &
FASTEST GROWING INDUSTRY
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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24. MEGATRENDS:
AFRICA RISES
 The African continent will grow
by at least a billion people and
this will involve both the
creation of massive new
markets for the GCR as well as
ever more competition from
better located and more efficient
production complexes
 SA will compete with other
African countries, especially in
West Africa
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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25. MEGATRENDS:
AFRICA RISES
The future of the Gauteng City Region will be strongly influenced by its
capacity to attract African skills, trade and tourism and to export its
skills and knowledge.
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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26. CONTEXT DRIVER:
GAUTENG CITY REGION
 The Gauteng City Region is
expected to double in size from
some 12 million to 25 million
people by 2055
 Ekurhuleni will either capture the
skills, energy and ideas of an
emerging skilled and globally
connected middle class
 Or be a choice of least resistance
for a growing under class who
seek any means of shelter and
survival close to the urban core
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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27. CONTEXT DRIVER:
GAUTENG CITY REGION
 Climate change impacts and falling
rural employment may accelerate the
flow of unskilled migrants from
South Africa and other African
countries, placing additional
pressure on Ekurhuleni’s capacity to
cope with settlement demands
 Within the GCR the spatial patterns
of investment and opportunity will
shift as the land market shifts and
the space economy links up new
centres of production
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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28. 3. Ekurhuleni 2055

29. Transitioning to People City 2012
-2055
+ 150 Years Since Modern Settlement
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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30. Transitioning to a People City (2012-2055)
INDUSTRIAL CITY POST INDUSTRIAL PEOPLE CITY 2012-2055
1905-1955 CITY 1955-2012 (LIVEABLE)
(AMARTURE) (OCTOPUS)
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Ekurhuleni 2055 Growth and Development Strategy
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31. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL FRAMEWORK
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32. POSSIBLE INDUSTRIAL & LOGISTICS
FRAMEWORK
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33. POSSIBLE GREEN FRAMEWORK
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34. THANK YOU