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Mundane singularity
- 1. Mundane Singularity What is possible even without AGI and Molecular Nanotechnology?
- 2. What can be achieved without these? • Economic abundance • Radical life extension • Physical and Cognitive enhancement • Blood Stream Robots • Supermaterials • Open Access to space • Pollution elimination • Computer Advancement • Shape changing functional devices like utility fog
- 3. Helpful Technologies and Policies • 1. Pro-growth Policies 2. Energy Efficiency - superconductors, thermoelectrics, improved grid 3. Energy Revolution - Mass produced fission, fusion, and maybe cold fusion 4. Additive manufacturing 5. Not so mundane - neuromorphic chips, quantum computers, photonics 6. Automated transportation (leading to robotic cars and planes) 7. Urbanization MegaCities 8. Urbanization Broad Group skyscrapers, Tata flat packed buildings 9. Robotics 10. Hyperbroadband 11. Sensors everywhere 12. Supermaterials 13. Improve medicine and public health 14. Space 15. Synthetic biology and recombineering 16. Education transformed and accelerated innovation 17. Supersmartphones, exoskeletons and wearable systems
- 9. Energy Revolution • China –Pebble bed reactors • Russia – tarketting 100 MW fast neutron SVBR • Korea – Smart Reactors • Modular Reactor • Fusion – Polywell, Billouin, Rossi-Focardi, General Fusion – Desktop puls laser driven fusion
- 10. Additive Manufacturing • DARPA projects to reinvent manufacturing • DARPA work on instant foundries • Additive Manufacturing roadmap – Design recommendations – Process Modeling and Control recommendations – Materials, Processing, Machines recommendations – Biomedical application recommendations – Education recommendations – Development and community recommendations – National testbed recommendation
- 13. Other Technologies • Neuromorphic chips • Quantum computers • Photonic • Urbanization – Megacities – Broad Group skyscrapers, Tata flat packed buildings • Robots – Various aspects of robotic cars are going mainstream rapidly
- 14. Other Technologies • Hyperbroadband • Supermaterials • Improved medicine and public health • Space • Synthetic biology and recombineering • Education transformed and accelerated innovation • Supersmartphones, exoskeletons, wearables
Hinweis der Redaktion
- 1. Pro-growth Policies2. Energy Efficiency - superconductors, thermoelectrics, improved grid3. Energy Revolution - Mass produced fission, fusion, and maybe cold fusion 4. Additive manufacturing5. Not so mundane - neuromorphic chips, quantum computers, photonics6. Automated transportation (leading to robotic cars and planes)7. Urbanization MegaCities8. Urbanization Broad Group skyscrapers, Tata flat packed buildings9. Robotics10. Hyperbroadband11. Sensors everywhere12. Supermaterials13. Improve medicine and public health14. Space15. Synthetic biology and recombineering16. Education transformed and accelerated innovation17. Supersmartphones, exoskeletons and wearable systems
- Broad Groups factory mass produced high rises replaces printed buildings using layers of additive concrete. Broad Group has more resources and appears on track to getting a lot of commercial success.Paper stronger than cast iron made from plant cellulose is here and will make manufacturing far cheaper.Contour Crafting is an effort to scale up rapid prototyping/manufacturing (a billion dollar industry to make 3 dimensional parts) and inkjet printing techniques to the scale of building multi-story buildings and vehicles. The process could accelerate the trillion dollar (US only) construction industry by 200 times. scaling up printer technology for making buildings are the kind of powerful ideas that could enable acceleration of economic growth even without successful development super technologies (like fusion, molecular nanotechnology or super artificial intelligence). It is similar to how Henry Ford's mass production methods accelerated economic growth at the beginning of 1900s.
- * adopt best practices systematically across industries (and across countries)* adopt the next wave of innovation (life RFID for end to end supply chain)* adopt practices for faster response to customer needs* Drive productivity gains in public and regulated sectors (20% of the economy and 5-15% productivity gap with private sector)* Reinvigorate innovation economy (data driven business decisions, cloud computer, application of advances in biology and life sciences.)
- Develop the talent pool to match the economy of the future and harness full capabilities of population. [This will be discussed more in transforming education and accelerating innovation]* Build 21st century infrastructure [this is also talked about in Energy efficiency, urbanization sections and hyperbroadband]* Enhance the competitiveness of business and regulatory environment* Embrace the energy productivity challenge* Harness the regional and local capabilities to boost growth and productivity
- High Temperature Semiconductor market and possibilitiesSuperpower inc is executing on a path to get ten times the performance from superconducting wire by 2020 and increased production levels and lower costs. This could also enable MHD generators to be affordable and magnetic refrigeration could be enabled or made more commercially competitive. Engines could be three times smaller and more efficient.2. Energy Efficiency - superconductors, thermoelectrics, improved grid, more efficient engines and generatorsGenerators can go from 35% thermal to electric conversion up to about 70%.Transmission and conversion losses can go from 50% down to about 10%. (50% efficiency to 90%)Engines can go from 30% efficient to 70% with advanced engines.Cars and trucks and vehicles can get 5 times lighter.Buildings and industrial processes can get a lot more efficient.Separation and purification of chemicals can get a lot more efficient.
- Phononic Devices materials and devices are expected to more than double thermal-electric efficiency -- compared to conventional thermoelectrics -- for the interval between room temperature, which is 73F, and 248F. At wider temperature differentials they indicate they can increase from the usual 10% to 30% conversion. This is expected to result in a $/W energy savings of 75% for power generation and 60% for cooling, respectively. Phononic Devices is starting to roll out commercial devices by the end of 2012. The claims of higher efficiency would suggest a thermoelectric figure of merit of about 3 (at least higher than 2). http://www.phononicdevices.com/China is deploying ultrahigh voltage lines which are more efficient and smart grid. Other countries are working on smart grids for more efficiency.
- Korea is working on its SMART reactors South Korea's SMART (System-integrated Modular Advanced Reactor) is a 330 MWtpressurised water reactor with integral steam generators and advanced safety features.Hyperion Power generation is working on their 25 megawatt nuclear reactors, which they hope to make by the hundreds. The first might be 2013-2018. Large scale production could kick in by 2020. General Fusion has raised $50 million of about $100 million for a net energy gain device with a target date of 2013 if the second/third phase are roughly on schedule.The goal is to build small fusion reactors that can produce around 100 megawatts of power. The company claims plants would cost around US$50 million, allowing them to generate electricity at about four cents per kilowatt hour.There has been rapid advances with the power and efficiency of lasers and applying them for particle acceleration.
- The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is embarking on a five-year, $1-billion effort with no less ambitious a goal than reversing the decades-long decline of US manufacturing. Regina Dugan says to do so, DARPA will attempt to replicate the successful model of the US semiconductor manufacturing sector in other industries, ranging from pharmaceuticals to micromechanical devices to gradient-index optics. http://nextbigfuture.com/2010/11/achieving-next-level-of-economic-growth.htmlhttp://nextbigfuture.com/2009/10/roadmap-for-additive-manufacturing.html
- The development of integrated technologies for fabricating 3D electronic systems represents another significant opportunity for growth of the additive manufacturing industry. A “printable/flexible electronics” industry already exists (in the ~$10B range), and this industry has by and large emerged from the electronics fabrication industry. Both industries could benefit from cross-fertilization (especially since some industry estimates in “printable electronics” include revenues in excess of $100B and possibly up to $300B by 2025.Additive Layer Manufacturing (ALM) can be far more efficient with energy and materias. Airbus is of the opinion that a fully ALM enabled aircraft will be 60% cheaper to make, and also 30% lighter, which again is saving energy in terms of what is needed to fuel it and get it off the ground In the case of titanium, using ALM reduces the extraction requirement for Rutile by 25 times against the same component machined conventionally. Titanium extraction is highly energy intensive, CO2 emissions for the production of 1 kg of titanium in fossil fuel dominant regions is 9 tonnes. So, if that 1 kg of Titanium becomes 1 kg of component, it costs only 9 tonnes. Conventional manufacturing means you need 25 kg of titanium for 1 kg of component, which will cost about 250 tonnes of carbon.
- Electron beam freeform fabricationThe buy to fly ratio is the mass of material that is require to machine a part compared to the mass of material in the finished part.Ryan Wicker, University of Texas at el Paso, works on Direct Digital Manufacturing (DDM). Wicker's group and Brent Stucker’s group at Utah State developed a flexible and mobile fused deposition modeling (FDM) manufacturing system that can deposit material on virtually any surface. This new machine has been integrated with an ultrasonic consolidation (UC) machine and used to dispense support material for UC fabrication as well as a potting material for embedded electronics so that the combined processes can produce fully functional integrated electronic systems. The development of integrated technologies for fabricating 3D electronic systems is a focus of my group, and I believe represents another significant opportunity for growth of our industry. It is interesting that a “printable/flexible electronics” industry already exists (in the ~$10B range), and this industry has by and large emerged from the electronics fabrication industry -- I believe both industries can benefit from cross-fertilization (especially since some industry estimates in “printable electronics” include revenues in excess of $100B and possibly up to $300B by 2025.
- By the end of 2012, there will likely be integrated one square neuromorphic chips with about ~10 billion synapses and ~1 million neurons. In 2015, the neuromorphic chips are targeted to have 100 times more capability. The military is developing neuromorphic chips for autonomous, unmanned, robotic systems and natural human-machine interfaces and diverse sensory and information integration applications in the defense and civilian sectorThe global semiconductor industry is forecast to be about $412 billion in 2015 up from $325 billion in 2011. If neuromorphic chips become mainstream in the 2020s,they could be a $50 to 200 billion segment. There is a commercial superconducting quantum computer ($10 million paid by Lockheed to Dwave Systems.) Over the next 5-10 years the systems will improve and get larger and become far more productive than classical computing for certain optimization and simulation problems. There is the possibility that lab work to scale entanglement, reduce decoherence and create quantum dots or lots of qubits could enable million or billion qubit systems.There are photonics neurons and onchip photonics for faster computers.Megacitieshttp://nextbigfuture.com/2011/01/china-to-create-largest-mega-city-in.htmlChina is merging cities in to megacities/ megaregions They benefit from high speed rail to get a one city effect. High speed rail seems to be providing a 1.0 to 1.5% annual GDP boost to regional economies.The area around Beijing and Tianjin, two of China's most important cities, is being ringed with a network of high-speed railways that will create a super-urban area known as the Bohai Economic Rim. China is merging Beijing/Tianjin and several other cities around the Bohai Sea into one big super-urban zone over the next several years. By 2020 there could be 260,000,000 people (3% of the world'spopulation) in one big super-city. World urbanization will go from about 50% now to 90-95% urban.Broad Group is developing 30 story factory produced high rises and 200 story skyscrapers. The buildings are assembled on site at two stories per day. 15 days for a 30 story building and 120 days for 200 story building. The buildings are five times more energy efficient for operation and are about two to three time more resource efficient for construction.Tata will sell flat packed (Ikea like) homes for $720.Far more capable robots like the AVA robot will be coming next year and robots with precision arms will be coming from Willow Garage and Heartland robotics.The new robotics could further enhance the productivity revolution.
- HyperbroadbandInformation and Communications Technology (ICT) and broadband can have a direct and measurable impact on GDP and that a number of studies have indicated that ‘true’ broadband (that is, symmetrical bandwidth in excess of 100 Mb/s) can increase GDP by up to 5%. Other studies indicate a return ten times greater than the investment in broadband.There are various technologies to enable tens of gigabit per second communication and even terabits per second.11. SupermaterialsThere is lighter and stronger steel and other micrograined and nanostructured metals. Improved concrete. DARPA is working on improved carbon fiber. Carbon nanotubes, graphene and other materials are still coming.12. Improve medicine and public healthCookers and heaters for the developing world that do not have indoor air pollution can save about 1.6 million lives per year and reduce the warming effect of black carbon (soot).Clean water and sanitation can save millions of lives.Universal vaccination can save millions.Combined about 37 million of the 55 million deaths are premature and can be avoided/deferred.There is advancement on tissue engineering, stem cells and regeneration.There is advancement against the major diseases and towards longevity.13. SpaceSpacex will be greatly reducing costs.Solar electric sails can provide radical new capabilitiesThere is interesting potential for fusion powered space propulsion far earlier than many expect.14. Synthetic biology and recombineeringAccelerated evolution and recombineering are areas where synthetic biology and genetic engineering are gaining new capabilities for faster progress and to scaleThere is new technology for editing DNA on the genome scale15. HP has the vision of trillions of inexpensive sensors.16. Education transformed and accelerated innovationVirtual reality and other new internet based systems could transform education.DARPA is working to reinvent training.There are new AI based approaches to accelerate innovation.Robotics and additive manufacturing could accelerate innovation.Super-labs on a chip could accelerate scientific discovery and testing.17. Supersmartphones, exoskeletons and wearable systemsSmartphones should have 100 times the processing by 2015. (Nvidia roadmap)In the 2020s, we should have petaflop mobile systems.