Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview January 2013

1. Economic Indicators
Last update 15.02.2013
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2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – February 2013
Europe:
• Consensus February GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,1% for 2013 and on 1,2% for 2014.
• While the EU industrial confidence decreased slightly in January, the consumer confidence
indicator improved considerably.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.
While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more favorable, they
were considerably more optimistic about future business developments.
• Euro area GDP fell by 0,6% (q-o-q) in Q4 2012, a third straight quarter of decline. While
uncertainty and recession persist, there are signs that the downturn may have troughed. The
decline in industry has been ebbing and the PMIs for services and manufacturing show the
contraction slowing.
US:
• Consensus February GDP forecast for the US decreased from 2,0% to 1,9% for 2013. Forecast
for 2014 remained on 2,8%
• Q4 national accounts revealed that GDP declined by 0,1%, the first contraction since the 2009
recession. This was largely due to defence cuts that came into effect after Sept 30. Still,
domestic demand held up well and gain in payrolls is still holding up relatively well.
Japan:
• The February GDP growth forecast for Japan improved significantly from 0,7% to 1,2% for 2013
and from 1,0% to 1,2% for 2014.
• The Bank of Japan has unveiled plans for open-ended quantitative easing from 2014 in an
attempt to boost activity and meet a newly adopted 2,0% inflation target.
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3. Eurostat Data
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4. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
'07Q1
06Q1
'10 Q1
'08 Q1
'09 Q1
'11 Q1
12 Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
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5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
12 Q1
'06Q1
'07Q1
'09 Q1
'08 Q1
'10 Q1
'11 Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
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6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.3
2.5
% 2
1.5
1
0.5
0
12/1
'08/1
'09/1
'10/1
'11/1
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
Source: Eurostat Jan 13
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7. Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0 Jan 13; 2
2,5
2,0 Eurozone inflation
1,5
1,0 FED rate Feb.13; 0,75
0,5 ECB short-term rate Feb.13; 0,25
0,0
-0,5
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
July 08
Jul.09
Jul.10
July 11
Jul.12
Jul.13
Source: ECB, FED Feb 13
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8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
11 10.7
10
9
8
7
6
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
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9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Industrial confidence within EU 27 decreased slightly in January.
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
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10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in January.
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
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11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
85
80
75
%
70
65
60
09Q1
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
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12. Ifo Data
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13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 13
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14. Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 13
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15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 13
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16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
GDP growth for 2012 was revised downwards from the December forecast.
Source: IFO Jan 13
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17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jan 13
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18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Jan 13
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19. Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Business situation 6 months expectations
125 115
120 110
115 105
110 100
105
95
100
95 90
90 85
85 80
80 75
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.
While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more positive than last
month, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. The
German economy made a promising start into the New Year.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
Source: IFO Feb 13
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20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose for the third time in succession in January.
While companies assessed their current business situation somewhat more positive than last
month, they were considerably more optimistic about future business developments. The
German economy made a promising start into the New Year.
Source: IFO Feb 13
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21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The business climate within the printing industry remained fairly stable on -8 (after -7 in January).
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Jan 13
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 14
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Feb 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Business Development at German Printers – January 2013:
 Typically and according to seasonality the assessment of the current
business situation in the printing industry decreased strongly from
+21%points in December to now +1%, nearly the same level as in the
same month of last year (0%).
 The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – remained nearly unchanged with -8%,
1% point down from the -7% in December.
 The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained
negative for the 5th month in succession, but improved from -32%
to -16%.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Feb 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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23. Zenith Data
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24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
 Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,
rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
 Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow
2% in 2015
 Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between
2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to
37%
 Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in
internet display over the next three years
 Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total
in 2015
Source: Zenith 12/12
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25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
At current prices
Source: Zenith 12/12
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26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
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