Economic Indicators and Economic Monthly Overview February 2013

1. Economic Indicators
Last update 15.03.2013
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2. Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – March 2013
Europe:
• Consensus March GDP forecast for WE decreased from 0,1% to 0,0% for 2013 and remained
on 1,2% for 2014.
• Both, the EU industrial confidence and the consumer confidence indicator improved in
February.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly in February. Companies
assessed their current business situation more favorably and were considerably more optimistic
about future business developments.
• There are hopes that the downturn may have troughed, based on a few indicators, including a
1,2% m-o-m rebound in retail trade in January. However, any recovery is currently fragile at the
best. Euro zone joblessness continued to climb in January and EC has downgraded its forecast
for 2013 to -0,3%.
US:
• Consensus March GDP forecast for the US decreased from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013. Forecast
for 2014 remained on 2,8%
• US consumption slowed at the start of 2013 as households felt the impact of federal tax
increases introduced on January 1. Moreover, March 1 saw sequestered public spending cuts
come into effect in addition to defense cuts imposed late last year.
Japan:
• The March GDP growth forecast for Japan remained stable on 1,2% for both, 2013 and 2014.
• Q4 GDP figure was revised from an estimated contraction of 0,1% q-o-q to flat growth,
indicating that the Japanese downturn may have bottomed out. The new government’s policies
have helped to weaken the Yen supporting export growth but also pushing up energy import
costs.
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3. Eurostat Data
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4. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
06Q1
'07Q1
'10 Q1
'08 Q1
'09 Q1
'11 Q1
12 Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs same quarter of last year
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
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5. Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
12 Q1
'11 Q1
'06Q1
'07Q1
'08 Q1
'09 Q1
'10 Q1
GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
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6. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
% 2
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
11/1
08/1
09/1
10/1
12/1
13/1
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
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7. Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
4,5
4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
Eurozone inflation
2,0
Feb.13; 1,8
1,5
1,0 Mar 13; 0,75
FED rate ECB short-term rate
0,5
0,0 Mar 13; 0,25
-0,5
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
July 08
Jul.09
Jul.10
July 11
Jul.12
Jul.13
Source: ECB, FED Mar 13
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8. Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate
12
11 10.8
10
9
8
7
6
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
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9. Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved considerably in February.
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
Jan 11
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 12
Jan 13
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
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10. Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 improved slightly again in February.
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
Jan 06
Jan 07
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
Source: Eurostat Mar 13
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11. Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
85
80
75
%
70
65
60
09Q1
04Q1
05Q1
06Q1
07Q1
08Q1
10Q1
11Q1
12Q1
13Q1
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
Source: Eurostat Feb 13
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12. Ifo Data
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13. Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
The Ifo World Economic climate improved considerably in Q1 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 13
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14. Economic Indicators – IFO WE Economic Climate
The economic climate for Western Europe improved in the 1st quarter 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 13
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15. Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
Source: IFO Feb 13
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16. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Jan 13
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17. Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Jan 13
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18. Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Mar 13
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19. Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Business situation 6 months expectations
125 115
120 110
115 105
110 100
105
95
100
95 90
90 85
85 80
80 75
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly by over three points in
February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current
business situation continued to grow and optimism regarding future business perspectives
increased. The German economy is regaining momentum.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
Source: IFO Mar 13
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20. Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
The Ifo Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly by over three points in
February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current
business situation continued to grow and optimism regarding future business perspectives
increased. The German economy is regaining momentum.
Source: IFO Mar 13
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21. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The business climate within the printing industry improved from -8 to -2.
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
Jan 08
Jan 09
Jan 10
Jan 11
Jan 12
Jan 13
Jan 14
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Mar 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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22. Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Business Development at German Printers – February 2013:
 With +2% the assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry remained fairly unchanged from last month and is considerably
better than in the same month of last year (-6%).
 The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – improved from -8% to -2%.
 The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained
negative for the 6th month in succession, but improved from -16%
to -6%. In the same month of last year expectations were positive and
considerably better than today.
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Source: IFO Mar 13, bundesverband druck und medien
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23. Zenith Data
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24. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
 Global ad expenditure forecast to strengthen over the next three years,
rising from 3,3 % in 2012 to 4,1% in 2013 and 5,6% in 2015
 Peripheral Eurozone to shrink 4,0% in 2013, stabilize in 2014 and grow
2% in 2015
 Developing markets to contribute 61% of adspend growth between
2012 and 2015 and increase their share of global adspend from 34% to
37%
 Online video and social media to help drive 20% annual growth in
internet display over the next three years
 Internet advertising to exceed combined newspaper and magazine total
in 2015
Source: Zenith 12/12
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25. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
At current prices
Source: Zenith 12/12
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26. Advertising Growth – Zenith 12/12 Press release
Source: Zenith 12/12
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