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Hotel Investment Forum India
Elizabeth Winkle
Managing Director, STR Global
13th January 2015
Global Hotel Industry Performance
Let the Good Times Roll
November 2014 YTD RevPAR % Change, Constant Currency USD, Europe in EUR
+8.1% +4.9%€ +3.5%
+0.8%
+5.1%+17.2%
+14.1%
+2.7%
Strong Industry Fundamentals
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
North America Central &
South America
Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia &
Oceania
Supply Demand
Supply & Demand % Change, November 2014 YTD
Countdown: 14 from 2014
#14 Demand: +10% from Previous Peak
12MMA Demand; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07
EU + UK US
#13 US: 57 months of RevPAR Growth
RevPAR Percent Change January 2001 – November 2014
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hundreds
57 months of growth
9/11
SARS Global
Financial crisis
56 months of growth
#12 US: Record Setting Year
#11 Europe: 16 Consecutive Growth Months
RevPAR Percent Change January 2001 – November 2014
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hundreds
16 months of growth
9/11
SARS
Global
Financial crisis
#10 US: Pricing Power; EU Opportunity
12MMA ADR; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07
EU + UK (EUR) US (USD)
#9 RevPAR: 3 of 4 Back to Peak
12MMA ADR; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007)
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07
Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe
#8 RevPAR +>5% in 11/22 Capitals
Nov 2014 YTD % Change Demand and RevPAR, Lux & UpperUp
-38% -28% -18% -8% 2% 12% 22% 32%
Athens
Bucharest
Greater Madrid
Lisbon
Sofia
Greater Amsterdam
Greater Berlin
Brussels
Budapest
Prague
Rome
Greater London
Helsinki
Dublin
Paris
Monaco
Warsaw
Vienna
Bratislava
Moscow
Kiev
Hundreds
Demand Nov YTD RevPAR Nov YTD LC
12 months moving average Jan 2006 to November 2014
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Supply % Chg Demand % Chg
#7 MEA: Demand Pickup
+6.6%
+2.7%
November 2014 YTD, in local currency
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Occupancy ADR
#6 MEA: Egypt Summer Recovery
# of international tourist arrivals in millions; Global & APAC
234
APAC
2012
Global
1.035
260
APAC
2014 f
Global
1.132
219
APAC
2011
Global
995
248
APAC
2013
Global
1.087
Source: UNWTO
#5 APAC: Int’l Arrivals +12m YOY
Market performance – RevPAR % Growth, Nov 2014 YTD, USD (CC)
North-
Eastern
Central
& South
South-
Eastern
Australia
Oceania
+1.0%
-0.6%
-0.8%
+4.9%
%
%
$
$ and %
#4 APAC: Performance Improvement
November 2014 YTD, in local currency
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
Occupancy ADR Thailand O -13% A +3%
#3 APAC Performance: Mostly Positive
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bangladesh
Mongolia
Myanmar
Sri Lanka
…+235%
+76%
+72%
+45%
Pipeline as a % of existing supply
#2 Pipeline: Ones to Watch
Pipeline by Room Count November 2014
54%
12%
11%
Malaysia 4%
Japan 3%
Philippines 2%
Thailand 3%
Australia 2%
Vietnam 2%
Myanmar 1%
Others 6%
#1 APAC: Pipeline by Country
2015 Resolutions
RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition
Forecast: 32/37 Markets Set to Rise
Takeaways
Strong Demand: Outpacing supply in most regions
Supply Growth: Slower than previous years
Stable Occupancies: Creates ADR opportunities
Recovery or Growth: Most global markets
International Arrivals: More travelling and ease of
travel improving (airlift, visa)
2015 Outlook: Positive
Threats
Economic Instability
Political Instability
Real & Perceived Security Threats
Cost of Oil (+ and -)
FX
STR Global
www.strglobal.com
You can follow us on LinkedIn,
Twitter, Facebook
STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this
presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this
presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is
strictly prohibited.
This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global
Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are
intended or implied.
Global Hotel Industry Performance
Elizabeth Winkle

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STR Global Hotel Investment Forum India 2015 (HIFI)

  • 1. Hotel Investment Forum India Elizabeth Winkle Managing Director, STR Global 13th January 2015 Global Hotel Industry Performance
  • 2. Let the Good Times Roll November 2014 YTD RevPAR % Change, Constant Currency USD, Europe in EUR +8.1% +4.9%€ +3.5% +0.8% +5.1%+17.2% +14.1% +2.7%
  • 3. Strong Industry Fundamentals 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 North America Central & South America Europe Middle East Africa Asia Australia & Oceania Supply Demand Supply & Demand % Change, November 2014 YTD
  • 5. #14 Demand: +10% from Previous Peak 12MMA Demand; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007) 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07 EU + UK US
  • 6. #13 US: 57 months of RevPAR Growth RevPAR Percent Change January 2001 – November 2014 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hundreds 57 months of growth 9/11 SARS Global Financial crisis 56 months of growth
  • 7. #12 US: Record Setting Year
  • 8. #11 Europe: 16 Consecutive Growth Months RevPAR Percent Change January 2001 – November 2014 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hundreds 16 months of growth 9/11 SARS Global Financial crisis
  • 9. #10 US: Pricing Power; EU Opportunity 12MMA ADR; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007) 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07 EU + UK (EUR) US (USD)
  • 10. #9 RevPAR: 3 of 4 Back to Peak 12MMA ADR; Nov 2007 – Nov 2014 (indexed at Nov 2007) 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 Nov 14Nov 13Nov 12Nov 11Nov 10Nov 09Nov 08Nov 07 Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe
  • 11. #8 RevPAR +>5% in 11/22 Capitals Nov 2014 YTD % Change Demand and RevPAR, Lux & UpperUp -38% -28% -18% -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% Athens Bucharest Greater Madrid Lisbon Sofia Greater Amsterdam Greater Berlin Brussels Budapest Prague Rome Greater London Helsinki Dublin Paris Monaco Warsaw Vienna Bratislava Moscow Kiev Hundreds Demand Nov YTD RevPAR Nov YTD LC
  • 12. 12 months moving average Jan 2006 to November 2014 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Supply % Chg Demand % Chg #7 MEA: Demand Pickup +6.6% +2.7%
  • 13. November 2014 YTD, in local currency -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% Occupancy ADR #6 MEA: Egypt Summer Recovery
  • 14. # of international tourist arrivals in millions; Global & APAC 234 APAC 2012 Global 1.035 260 APAC 2014 f Global 1.132 219 APAC 2011 Global 995 248 APAC 2013 Global 1.087 Source: UNWTO #5 APAC: Int’l Arrivals +12m YOY
  • 15. Market performance – RevPAR % Growth, Nov 2014 YTD, USD (CC) North- Eastern Central & South South- Eastern Australia Oceania +1.0% -0.6% -0.8% +4.9% % % $ $ and % #4 APAC: Performance Improvement
  • 16. November 2014 YTD, in local currency -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% Occupancy ADR Thailand O -13% A +3% #3 APAC Performance: Mostly Positive
  • 17. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Bangladesh Mongolia Myanmar Sri Lanka …+235% +76% +72% +45% Pipeline as a % of existing supply #2 Pipeline: Ones to Watch
  • 18. Pipeline by Room Count November 2014 54% 12% 11% Malaysia 4% Japan 3% Philippines 2% Thailand 3% Australia 2% Vietnam 2% Myanmar 1% Others 6% #1 APAC: Pipeline by Country
  • 20. RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition Forecast: 32/37 Markets Set to Rise
  • 21. Takeaways Strong Demand: Outpacing supply in most regions Supply Growth: Slower than previous years Stable Occupancies: Creates ADR opportunities Recovery or Growth: Most global markets International Arrivals: More travelling and ease of travel improving (airlift, visa) 2015 Outlook: Positive
  • 22. Threats Economic Instability Political Instability Real & Perceived Security Threats Cost of Oil (+ and -) FX
  • 23. STR Global www.strglobal.com You can follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied. Global Hotel Industry Performance Elizabeth Winkle