The first SIANI expert group meeting on China’s global land-investments was held at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Stockholm, on 18 October 2011. This report provides a brief summary of the content of discussion and a brief re-cap of the purpose of the expert group. It is primarily intended to “re-fresh” the memory of those that participated, and to give an indication to those that could not participate of what topics were discussed. Here, you may also download the presentations by Marie Olsson and Kerstin Greppert.

1. Driver I: Food Security?

2. Driver I: Food Security
• Chinese Agricultural Trade
• Chinese Agricultural Production and Policies
• Chinese Agricultural Consumption
1

3. 2
Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Trade

4. 3
Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Trade

5. FIGURE 2.3 More than half of Chinese agricultural imports were supplied by three
countries during 2005–10
TABLE 2.2 China: Agricultural imports by major trading partner, 2005–10 (million $)
Partner 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
United States 6,342 7,128 8,620 13,826 13,407 17,834
Brazil 3,011 3,803 4,823 8,789 8,442 10,729
Argentina 2,967 2,360 5,141 8,346 3,447 5,677
EU-27 1,819 1,952 2,621 3,438 3,239 4,719
Australia 2,388 2,311 2,596 2,923 2,473 3,885
Malaysia 1,461 1,823 3,124 4,223 3,130 3,619
Indonesia 934 1,264 1,845 2,684 2,281 3,001
Canada 977 630 1,081 1,577 2,488 2,784
India 346 1,076 1,212 1,515 814 2,381
Thailand 922 1,208 1,212 1,080 1,685 2,268
All other 3,824 4,622 4,575 5,305 6,311 9,542
Total 24,991 28,178 36,850 53,707 47,717 66,439
Source: GTIS, Global Trade Atlas database.
Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Trade
4

6. United States
26%
Brazil
15%
Argentina
11%
Malaysia
7%
EU-27
7%
Australia
6%
Other
23%
Indonesia
5%
FIGURE 2.3 More than half of Chinese agricultural imports were supplied by three
countries during 2005–10
Source: GTIS, Global Trade Atlas database.
3,824 4,622 4,575 5,305 6,311
24,991 28,178 36,850 53,707 47,717
IS, Global Trade Atlas database.
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Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Trade

7. 6

8. 7

9. _____________
a
Dickinson, “China Real Estate Laws, Part I,” n.d.
b
Wang, Tao, and Tong, “Trading Land Development Rights,” 2009, 3.
c
Ibid.
TABLE 4.1 Chinese and U.S. rank in world production for selected agricultural products, 2008/09
Agricultural products
China’s rank in
world
production
China’s share of
world
production
U.S. rank in
world
production
U.S. share of
world
production
Percent Percent
Apples 1 43 2 6
Cabbages and other brassicas 1 53 9 2
Cucumbers and gherkins 1 64 5 2
Eggplants (aubergines) 1 56 21 (a)
Garlic 1 77 6 1
Onions, dry 1 31 3 5
Pears 1 65 2 4
Pig meat/pork 1 46 3 11
Potatoes 1 18 5 6
Rice, paddy 1 28 12 1
Sweet potatoes 1 77 12 1
Tomatoes 1 26 2 10
Watermelons 1 68 5 2
Wheat 1 16 3 10
Broilers 2 17 1 23
Maize (corn) 2 20 1 37
Cow milk, whole, fresh 3 6 1 15
Sugar cane 3 7 10 2
Beef 4 10 1 20
Soybeans 4 7 1 35
Source: FAO, FAOSTAT (accessed July 27, 2010). 8
Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Production & Policies

10. 9
Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Consumption
Meat
14%
Tubers
9%
Veg. oil
8%
Grains
49%
Aquaculture
2% Misc.
9%
Fruit
1%
Dairy
2%
Veg.
6%
Source: FAO, FAOSTAT (accessed August 26, 2010).
FIGURE 3.1 Compared with 1987, Chinese daily caloric intake in 2007 had grown significantly and
comprised more meat, fruits, and vegetables
Meat
7%
Veg. oil
5%
Veg.
3%
Oil crop
1%
Tubers
13%
Misc. 7%
Grains
63%
1987 2007
2,9812,524
302 percent respectively between 1987 and 2007. Currently, grains and meats constitute
the core of the Chinese diet, accounting for about two-thirds of calories consumed. The
caloric importance of vegetables is growing both in absolute terms and as a share of
overall caloric intake. Fruit remains a proportionally small part of the Chinese diet, even
though calories derived from fruit consumption have increased over time.

11. TABLE 3.2 China: Per capita consumption of select commodities and population in rural and urban areas, 2004–08
Commodity Area 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Kilograms
Grain
a
Rural 219 209 206 199 199
Urban 78 77 76 78 n/a
Vegetables Rural 107 102 100 99 100
Urban 122 119 118 118 123
Meat
b
Rural (
c
) (
c
) 36 32 31
Urban 31 33 32 32 31
Fruits
d
Rural 17 17 19 19 19
Urban 53 57 60 59 54
Edible oils Rural 5 6 6 6 6
Urban 9 9 9 10 10
Fresh eggs Rural 5 5 5 5 5
Urban 10 10 10 10 11
Millions
Population Rural 784 777 770 762 754
Urban 512 527 541 556 571
Source: USDA, ERS, China Agricultural and Economic Data (accessed date November 2, 2010).
a
Grains includes tubers.
b
Meat includes pork, beef, mutton, and poultry.
c
Data not available.
d
10
Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Consumption

12. 11
Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Consumption
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Percent
Source: The World Bank, Data: China (accessed July 26, 2010).
FIGURE 3.3 Rural population declined as a share of Chinese total population during
1978–2008
occur; between 2004 and 2008 the rural population fell by about 1 percent annually
while the urban population rose by 3 percent annually.26
Today only 40 percent o
Chinese people are rural farmers, whereas 20 years ago two-thirds were rural and
produced a large portion of their own food. 27
Urban and rural Chinese show different food consumption patterns, though the gap i

13. 0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Totalpopulation(inmillions)
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Populationgrowthrate(percent)
FIGURE 3.2 China's population is growing while its growth rate falls
Source: OECD, OECD Factbook 2010: Economic, Environmental, and Social Statistics , 2010.
India. In 2008, the portion of China’s population that was under 15 years old was three
times higher than the portion over 65, but by 2030 these groups should be roughly equal
in size.25
In the future, as the Chinese population ages and declines, the growth in food
consumption likely will decline as well. Nonetheless, given its massive population, China
will remain a major global consumer of agricultural products.
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Driver I: Food Security
Chinese Agricultural Consumption

14. Food-Security argument does not hold
Observed trends:
• Main import commodities are soybeans, cotton,
palm oil, dairy products, hides and skins
• Labour intensive/ land-saving production except
for what it needs to fullfill the national 95% self-
sufficiency policy
• Consumption rises and varies depending on a
urban/rural divide
13