In a very optimistic lecture, Yves GIRAUD, the EDF Generation Economics & Strategy Director, then compared different electricity sources to conclude that nuclear energy will play an important role in the future.

1. What future for the
different electricity
sources?
SFEN
“Atoms for the Future” 2013
Yves Giraud,
Generation Economics & Strategy Director
EDF
Paris, 22nd October 2013
1

2. Once upon a time, Europe had a dream….
2

3. Back to Coal !
3

4. Coal, the king of the ring
 First in the world
 Highly standardized - 2000 €/kW
 Flexible
 Fuel easy to extract and transport
 CCS ?
40%
of the world electricity generation
4

5. Gas, a (fallen) sprinter
 Easy, fast and cheap
(900 €/kW)
 Clean compared to coal
 Today CCGT in Europe are closing
because of low coal and CO2
prices
22%
of the world electricity generation
5

6. Low carbon energy
Nuclear
13%
33% of the
world
electricity
generation
Hydro
16%
other
renwables
4%
6

7. Energy efficiency, a solution to reduce
electricity demand
 Clean
 High costs (1000 to 4000 €/KW)
 Bad return on investment
7

8. Renewables, like a dream
 Advanced technologies
 Easy to implement
 Clean ?
 Costs depending on technologies
Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en
Sicile
(1000 €/kW to 4000 €/kW)
 In the right place at the right time
8

9. Nuclear nightmare?
March 2011 Fukushima
9

10. Time for a nuclear dream!
Parc éolien de 30 MW, à Mistretta, en
Sicile
 Low carbon
 Difficult, long and expensive
(> 4000 €/MW)
 Competitive (over the long term)
 Good for employment
 Stable price
 Long construction time
 Complex
(political, legal and safety)
10

11. Lots of countries see a future for nuclear
Existing reactors and new build
projects
New build projects/programmes
Exsiting reactors with no new build
projects
Nuclear exit or phase out
11

12. Opinion on nuclear is not that bad
Question: what is your opinion of the use of nuclear energy in your country?
In favour
Favorable
Against
Opposé
34
13
34
14
34
15
34
16
29
18
19
Unsure
Hésitant
No opinion
Sans opinion
22
31
15
37
35
16
30
22
20
34
50
15
26
68
Source: CSA; questionnaire realised between 26/11/12 and 18/12/12
6
6
7
12

13. The benefits of nuclear are well known
Residential electricity prices (€/MWh) in H2 2012*
300
 Affordable electricity
€228/MWh European average of 17 Eurozone countries outside of France
250
222
200
 Security of supply,
helping the trade
balance
228
230
Belgium
Spain
Italy
268
179
150
145
100
50
0
 Low carbon electricity
generation
 A large number of job
opportunities in high
performing industries
France
UK
Germany
CO2 emissions (gCO2/kWh) in 2010**
800
600
400
Average OECD-Europe
200
0
France
*Source: Eurostat H2 2012
**Source: IEA Facts 2012
Belgium
Spain
Italy
UK
Germany
Poland
13

14. Nuclear remains a competitive technology
WIND, SOLAR PV
NEW BUILD COAL,
GAS AND NUCLEAR
85 - 185
€/MWh
EXISTING
NUCLEAR
+ additional system costs
70 à 100
€/MWh
~55 €/MWh
Cour des Comptes
38 €/MWh
2012 Tariffs
Part of base load
generation
Existing
Nuclear
New SC Coal, gas
and NNB
Renewables
14

15. Existing: achieve life extension
 USA : 70 of 104 reactors have already
obtained the license for 60 years
 The « Grand carénage » in France
An opportunity for our industry
 An industrial, human and financial
challenge
15

16. Belgium: a new mechanism for securing Tihange 1
nuclear life extension?
Market price
Margin
Fixed price
State
?
Operator
70% of revenues
30% of revenues
€/MWh
“Fair margin”
Life extension
costs
Under negotiation
€41.8*
Bill adopted by the
Government
Generation
costs
Tihange NPP
 Belgium Government is considering setting a fixed
price* for electricity generated from Tihange 1
 Any revenues above this price will be split
between the State and the operator by 70% and
30%, respectively
*€41.8/MWh as announced in L’Echo
16

17. New Build: brighter times ahead for nuclear!
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18. The challenge of the investment cost
€/kWg
Wind, PV
?
EPR
1500 MW
Nuclear
1300 MW
900 MW
1980
1990
2000
2010
18

19. Nuclear development is being driven by
non-OECD countries (mainly Asia)
*Note: New Policies Scenario. Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
19

20. European industry must continue its nuclear history
both for international and renewal of existing
OLKILUOTO 3
(Areva)
Optimisation
FLAMANVILLE 3
EPR feedback
experience
Extended range of
models
POLAND 1 & 2?
HINKLEY POINT ?
TAISHAN 1 & 2
ARABIE
SAOUDITE
HINKLEY POINT
3 & 4?
SAUDI
ARABIA?
20

21. UK : Hinkley Point C, as it will be in the future
21

22. The CFD is a long term contract providing
stability to both customers and investors
92,5 £/MWh
22

23. Poland: a robust process is underway which in a
sense can be compared to the commitment of UK
 A strong political commitment to the polish nuclear
programme:
– 2011: “Nuclear Package” voted almost unanimously
–
–
–
–
(407 for vs. 2 against) by the Parliament
2012: PGE announces a package of Integrated
Proceedings for the first nuclear project
Spring 2013: preliminary dialogue with interested
bidders
End-2013: finalisation of Polish Nuclear Programme
2025-2030: target commissioning date for 6,000MW
 EDF and its partner Areva have announced their
intention to participate in the Polish NNB
programme
23

24. Towards a new market design
 Difficulties to launch nuclear projects
in a deregulated market….
 … as for any other technologies
 Let’s invent a new market design for
nuclear
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25. Let’s start a new dream with nuclear
 Nuclear will play
an important role
 Life extension must be achieved
 A vital need for NNB projects
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