1) The document discusses potential power source compositions in Japan in 2030 under different scenarios: status quo, abandoning dependence on nuclear power, and complete denuclearization. 2) Under the status quo scenario, nuclear power would make up 20-25% of power sources, while renewable energy would be 30-35% and thermal power 35%. 3) In a scenario abandoning nuclear dependence, nuclear power would drop to 15% while renewable energy rises to 30% and thermal power to 40%. 4) For complete denuclearization, renewable energy would increase to 35% of power sources and thermal power would be 50%, with nuclear power at 0%.

1. April 3rd, 2013, Paris – Salle Wagram
SFEN
Nuclear and Renewables in the energy transition
Ratio of Power Sources in Japan
in 2030
Takeo KIKKAWA
Professor, Graduate School of Commerce and Management
Hitotsubashi University
Doctor of Economics
President, Business History Society of Japan
kikkawa09@gmail.com
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2. Shock of the Accident at the Fukushima
Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant
■ INES (International Nuclear Event Scale)
・ Level 7: Chernobyl (1986)
Fukushima Daiichi (2009)
・ Level 5: Three Mile Island(1979)
■ As nuclear reactors undergo periodic inspections every
13 months, all reactors have once stopped in May, 2012.
■ Of 50 reactors in Japan (47GW), only two reactors are in
operation.
・ The dependence of Japan once on nuclear power is
29% (2010) →2％（Dec. 2012）
■ Japan’s trade balance turned to loss in 2011for the first
time since 1980.
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3. Think About Power Source
Composition in 2030
■Basic concept
・ Independent variables are
(1) Growth of renewable energy
(2) Deepening of energy saving centering on consumer use
(3) Progress towards cheap fuel (by utilizing shale gas revolution) and zero
emissions of thermal power (IGCC: Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle,
CCS: Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage)
・ Dependence on nuclear power is a dependent variable
(decided by subtraction)
■Ratio of nuclear power: renewable energy: thermal power: co-generation
(2030, %)
*26：11：60：3 (2010 results)
*20~25：30~25：35：15 (Status quo scenario)
*15：30：40：15 (Scenario abandoning dependence on nuclear power)
* 0：35：50：15 (Denuclearization scenario)
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4. Status Quo Scenario in 2030
■Ratio of power sources:
nuclear 20~25%
renewable energy 30~25%
thermal power 35%
co-generation 15%
□Ratio of primary energy
nuclear 10~12%
renewable energy 17~19%
petroleum 34％
coal 21~22%
natural gas 15~16%
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5. Scenario abandoning dependence
on nuclear power in 2030
■Ratio of power sources:
nuclear 15%
renewable energy 30%
thermal power 40%
co-generation 15%
□Ratio of primary energy
nuclear 7%
renewable energy 19%
petroleum 35％
coal 22%
natural gas 17%
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6. Denuclearization scenario in 2030
■Ratio of power sources:
nuclear 0%
renewable energy 35%
thermal power 50%
co-generation 15%
□Ratio of primary energy
nuclear 0%
renewable energy 22%
petroleum 35％
coal 23%
natural gas 21%
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