SEB:s Boprisindikator visar att hushållen är mindre positiva till bostadsmark...
SEB Danske Nordic Bank Seminar Sept 2009
1. Jan Erik Back
CFO
Danske –
Nordic Bank
Seminar
Copenhagen
2 September
2009
1
2. SEB’s competitive position
A long-term relationship bank
Strong income and balance sheet
Q2-recap, liquidity and capital
Asset quality
Stable and diversified credit portfolio
Going forward
Economic outlook and the new financial landscape
2
3. SEB – A relationship bank
Strong customer base Product excellence
Large Cash management globally
companies Scandinavian currencies
globally
1,800
Nordic stock broker
Financial Nordic and Baltic investment
institutions bank
Custody Nordics and Baltics
700
Nordic asset management
SMEs SMEs Sweden
400,000
Private
individuals
5 million
3
4. A strong large corporate franchise
Nordic target market Strong growth in core markets
100 Income Nordic “top 50”
Core (public companies)
banking
relation-
ships +79%
%
Large
corporates
Nordics
+33%
Large
corporates
Sweden
0
100
Perceived 0
quality 100 H1 08 H1 09
2008 2009 Sweden Other Nordic
4
5. Rightly positioned to leverage
recovery of markets
Mutual Funds Net Sales Sweden Assets under Management
Cumulative Jan 2005 – Jun 2009, including PPM June 30, 2009, SEK bn
SEK m Nordea 1,478
70,000
60,000 SEB SEB 1,267
50,000 SHB
40,000 Robur Sw edbank 743
30,000
Nordea
20,000 617
Danske Bank
10,000
0
DnB NOR 595
-10,000
-20,000
-30,000 Handelsbanken 224
Source: Morgan Stanley
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09
SEB Market share Competitors
Market shares SEB Rank
Gross premium
Sweden* 26 1
income, unit-linked Denmark** 9 2
insurance
%, Q1 2009 Estonia 14 3
Latvia 14 3
* Q2 2009
** Full year 2008
Lithuania 28 1
5
6. Growing franchise of Swedish Retail
The natural partner ROE
for corporations 19%
…from start-up to Net credit loss
international expansion! SME bank of the year, level 12 bps
2008, Privata Affärer
Gross new lending – householdcurrency
Lending volumes in local mortgages No of corporate customers
SEK bn Thousands
14.4 150
12.4 145
10.2 10.0 10.1 140
8.8
135
130
125
120
115
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09
2007 2008 2009
6
7. SEB’s competitive position
A long-term relationship bank
Strong income and balance sheet
Q2-recap, liquidity and capital
Asset quality
Stable and diversified credit portfolio
Going forward
Economic outlook and the new financial landscape
7
8. Highlights Q2 2009
Strong and sustainable underlying Operating profit (SEK bn)
business 4.2 4.6 3.7 4.6 2.4 3.5 2.5 4.0 1.8 0.6
– SEK 5.3bn before provisions for credit Q1 Q1 Q1
losses, goodwill write offs and bond 07 Q2 Q3 Q4 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 09 Q2
7
repurchase gain 6
5
Cost development under control 4
– -4% on a comparable basis 3
2
Sharp increase of impaired loans in 1
0
the Baltic region -1
-2
Full goodwill write-off in the Baltics -3
and Russia of SEK 2.4bn -4
-5
-6
Strong balance sheet with Tier 1 of Bond repurchase gains
13 per cent and restored liquidity Profit before gains and credit losses
Goodwill impairment
profile Provisions for credit losses
8
9. Resilient income generation
12-month rolling earnings generation excluding one-off effects
SEK bn
50 Operating income
40
30 Profit before credit losses
and goodwill
20
10
Operating profit
0
Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1- Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 - Q2
05 06 07 08 09
Diversified income generation
SEK m
Net interest income Non-interest income *
8 000
7 000
6 000
+21%*
5 000
4 000
H1 2009
3 000 vs. H1 2008
2 000
1 000
0
Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2
-05 -06 -07 -08 -09
*Income adjusted for capital gains
9
10. Income drivers
YoY* NII effect of market turbulence
Long- subsiding, but asset re-pricing will
+26%
Net interest
term continue for some years
income
QoQ Moderately lower lending volumes
-9% Funding duration extension
Short-
term
Renewed strength of fee and trend
YoY*
commission earnings – SEB’s
Non-interest
+10% traditional area of excellence
income
Diversified flow based/low risk trading
QoQ income
+18%
Sticky unit-linked life insurance income
* Income rolling twelve months adjusted for capital gains
10
11. Cost development
Cost management program 2007 – 2009 FTE development
since year-end 2008
Group
-922 net
Achieved by Q2 2009 Target by Q4 2009 Sweden net -500
SEK 1,470m SEK 1,500 – 2,000m -435 net
Efficiency and productivity gains offset inflation on a comparable basis
Total cost base reported
Excluding pensions, redundancies, CEE goodwill impairment and FX effect
30
28
26 Rolling 12 m
24 costs in Q2
22 2009
up SEK 0.3bn
20 or 6% vs. FY
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2006
06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09
11
12. Capital situation and RWA dynamics
Capital ratios, Basel II without floors Risk-weighted assets
Per cent SEK bn
Core Tier 1 ratio Tier 1 ratio
15%
Dec 2008 818
13.1 Migration FX Op
11.3 Risk
10% 31 15
Long-term Basel II Tier 1 target
47 18
5%
Required minimum Tier 1 in order to Volume IRB
qualify for Swedish stabilisation changes and methods
measures is 4% capital process
Jun 2009 790 efficiency
0%
12
14. SEB’s competitive position
A long-term relationship bank
Strong income and balance sheet
Q2-recap, liquidity and capital
Asset quality
Stable and diversified credit portfolio
Going forward
Economic outlook and the new financial landscape
14
15. SEB has a stable and well
diversified credit portfolio
85% of total credit exposure is in Nordics and Germany and only 10% in Baltics
Credit portfolio is well diversified across types of borrowers
Corporate portfolio has a pre-dominance of large corporate clients
Norway 7%
85% Denmark 3%
Finland 3%
Households
Corporates
Germany 28%
Sweden 40%
48% 24%
Banks
12%
Estonia 3%
Latvia 3%
Other 5% Lithuania 5%
Public
10% administration Property mgmt
6% 14%
Credit portfolio, SEK 1.8 trillion as of June 30 2009
Note: the chart above show the distribution by industry and location of SEB’s credit portfolio excluding the fixed-income investment portfolio.
15
16. Continued buffering for CEE challenges
Provisions for Net Credit Losses Non performing loans
Distribution of SEK 5,953m within SEB Group % of lending
Net credit loss level 25% Portfolio assessed, past due > 60 days
Q1 2009* Q2 2009 H1 2009* Individually assessed
20%
Estonia 1.73 3.66 2.76 15%
Latvia 6.41 8.86 7.74 10%
Lithuania 3.59 5.97 4.83
5%
Baltics 3.70 6.00 4.93
0%
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Ukraine
Baltic countries Lending
(SEK bn)
45 39 75 2
74% Provisioning to build-up Baltic reserves
SEK m Specific Collective
2,000
22% 1,500 65% collective
4.8% provisions
1,000
0.2%
Nordics, Ukraine 500
Russia
Germany, etc. 0
*Isolated quarters on an annualised basis Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09
Actual losses:
SEK 73m!
16
17. Proactive and conservative approach in
the Baltic region
2006 …… 2008 …… 2009
Increased Work-out units Accelerated
capitalisation collective provisions
High Risk
Tightening of Committees Review of all loans
credit policy >€1m completed
Baltic SPVs
ROE priority > Separate division
volume Dialogue with
authorities Full goodwill write-off
Long-term commitment remains
17
18. Stable asset quality outside CEE
Distribution of credit provisions Level of Impaired Loans
Distribution of SEK 5,953m within SEB Group
2,0%
Outside 1,5% Germany
CEE CEE 1,0% NPL
22% 0,5% 0.6% Nordics
78%
0,0%
Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun
'06 '07 '08 '09
% of total exposure
3%* 3%*
Shipping Limited exposure to Bulk and SMEs Bankruptcies increasing
& Offshore Container sub-segments Sweden (from a low base)
1%* 7%*
Acq. Well diversified with 95% Commercial Mainly related to large real
Finance senior debt Real Estate* estate companies
* Excluding Baltic exposures
18
19. SEB’s competitive position
A long-term relationship bank
Strong income and balance sheet
Q2-recap, liquidity and capital
Asset quality
Stable and diversified credit portfolio
Going forward
Economic outlook and the new financial landscape
19
20. Sweden - Positioned for recovery
Improved situation for manufacturing Household debt service burden
Percent of disposable income
Low mortgage rates support 12
consumption, debt service burden 10
historically low 8
6
GDP bounces back 4
Riksbank starts to increase rates 2
0
Spring 2010 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
GDP growth New export orders
Yearly growth, percentage Manufacuring industry, net
OECD Sweden Orders Expected orders
8 80
6 60
4 40
2
20
0
0
-2
-4 -20
-6 -40
-8 -60
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Source: SEB Nordic Outlook, 1 Sept 2009
20
21. Baltics - Stabilisation on a low level
A broader recovery in 2011
First signs of improved economic sentiment
GDP deficits leaves the negative territory
Wage cuts continue
Economic sentiment Current accounts
Index Percent of GDP
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Euro-zone
140 Estonia Lithuania Latvia
5
120 0
100 -5
80 -10
-15
60
-20
40
-25
20 -30
0 Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar- Mar-
Oct-95 Oct-97 Oct-99 Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Source: SEB Nordic Outlook, 1 Sept 2009
21
22. The big unknown: A new financial landscape
- Still limited visibility and no level playing field
Estimated Tier 1 effect (%)
Capital framework - Market risk -0.3
- Insurance goodwill -0.7
- Advanced IRB roll-out >1.0
SEB’s leverage ratio 5.3%
Leverage ratio
(FDIC rules)
SEB’s matched funding >12 mths
Liquidity requirements Liquidity reserves >10% of assets
Changes timing but (hopefully)
Dynamic provisioning
not magnitude of losses
And more...
22
23. SEB has a strong position to meet
the new financial landscape
12 months Tier 1 capital Reserve ratio*
matched funding ratio 13.1% 72%
Implementation around 2011-2013 means limited business restrictions
(until next downturn?), but structurally lower ROE across banking sector
vs. pre-crisis
*Individually appraised non-performing loans
23
24. Wholesale banking going forward
Restricted capital leads banks to a more selective choice of relationships
Business Credits Bank relationship –
– selected clients – tight conditions a closer tie
● First priority to ● Reduced gearing ● A stronger relationship
existing core clients between client and
● Second priority to
+ ● Lending cap towards
certain industries
= bank
new prime clients. ● Fewer banks per client
● Tight credit
● 360°analysis documentation and ● Risk based pricing
monitoring. restores attractiveness
● Ancillary business (!)
of lending
● Even more focus on
● Focus on risk return
repayment capacity
24
25. Stabilising economy
but long and winding
road to recovery
Full attention and
actions on Baltic
challenges
SEB well positioned
to support our
customers and seize
growth opportunities
on a selective basis
25