Insights into Malaysia's foresight & future oriented programs and activities.

1. Private Sector R&D Foresight in Spearheading 2nd Frontier Does PRT Have a Place
Vital To Boost Determining Priority of Sustainability in in the Greater KL
Growth Research Directions Malaysian Rubber Transportation
Industry Infrastructure
p13
JANUARY 2012
1/2012
ISSN NO: 2229-9637
MALAYSIA’S
SHIPBUILDING
INDUSTRY
Shifting Towards
Sustainability

3. inside January 2012 features
EDITOR’S NOTE
p02 Initial Thoughts
p04
LEADER’S INSIGHTS
Private Sector R&D Vital To Boost Growth
21
EXPERTS’ INSIGHTS
p06 Application of Foresight Methods for the Determination
of Priority Research Directions of the Future
INDUSTRY INSIGHTS
p13 Spearheading Second Frontier of
Sustainability in Malaysian Rubber Industry
p21 Innovating Innovation: Innovation In
the Age of Disruption And Black Swans
p24 Towards A High Income Society - The Offset Programs
p20
YOUTH INSIGHTS
Creative Multimedia
28
p48 Foresight Outreach: What Say Youth
COVER STORY
p28 Malaysia’s Shipbuilding Industry -
Shifting Towards Sustainability
TRENDS & ISSUES
p33 Driving Technological Catch Up In The IC Industry In Malaysia
p38 Does PRT Have a Place in the Greater KL
Transportation Infrastructure
p40 Megatrends in Railways
p43
VIEWPOINTS
Future of Halal: From Niche to Mainstream
38
p52 THE WORLD MOVING FORWARD
FORESIGHT INTERCONNECT™
p54 myForesight™ Bookclub
p19 Letter From The Future
EDITORIAL BOARD
43
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF PUBLISHED BY
Rushdi Abdul Rahim Malaysian Industry-Government Group
for High Technology
WRITERS Prime Minister's Department
Prof. Emeritus Dato’ Dr. Zakri Abdul Hamid 3517, Jalan Teknokrat 5
Datuk Dr. Salmiah Ahmad 63000 Cyberjaya Selangor Darul Ehsan
Beata Poteralska www.might.org.my
Professor Rajah Rasiah
Ir. Dr. Aziz Hassan FOR INQUIRIES
Major (R) Zailani Safari myForesight™
Azim Pawanchik
Dr. Suraya Sulaiman Phone : +603 8315 7888
Mohd Afzanizam Mohd Badrin Fax : +603 8312 0300
Natrah Mohd Emran E-mail : foresight@might.org.my
Farah Abu Bakar Website : www.myforesight.my
Fatin Nuramanina
Muhammad Ridhwan Naim Suhaime DISCLAIMER
Hazim Adly Harun Any article included in this publication and/
or opinions expressed therein do not necessarily
CONTRIBUTORS reflect the views of the myForesight™
Mohd Nurul Azammi Mohd Nudri but remain solely those of the author(s).
Amallia Ahmad Zaini
Ani Suzila Anas The Publisher is not to be held responsible for
Ahmad Nazri Abudin any copyright violation of articles, which have
been provided by contributing writers.
Mohd Kamaruzaman Abdullah
Muhammad Hasif Hasan
PP17630/12/2012(031478)

4. January 2012
editor’s note
Initial
Thoughts
BY
RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM
Director
myForesight™
rushdi@might.org.my
“Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future” - Yoda However, given the complexity of the external
environment, the thinking that goes into strategy
Dr. Rajah Rasiah talks
about the Malaysian IC
“Everybody
The previous quote underlines the difficulty development needs to be divergent and expansive. industry and how it’s knows that
of trying to look beyond the present. If the all- Foresight approach facilitates, in fact encourages playing technological every decision
powerful Jedi Master with fictional powers like this line of thinking, and then bringing this back to catch up to the rest of
Yoda from the Star Wars Hexalogy would not be the present and now, to the strategic decisions that the world, raising the that we make
2 able to see what the future lays ahead, where does need to be made today. The aim is to strengthen questions of policy today, either
this leave mere mortal like us. So called experts
and futurist have all tried to predict something
those strategic decisions - to make them wiser and
more robust, and able to withstand the change and
implications and what’s
the best strategy to
as individuals
about the future with mixed results. Nowadays, uncertainties that the future will bring. move forward. You or as
the use of foresight tools and methodology has could read all about organisations
provided some means towards looking ahead with The articles that were, is and will be published this edition’s trends and
confidence. in myForesightTM reflects this line of thoughts; issues. will have an
exploring the possibilities and how the future impact on
However through my interactions I am still greeted
by the question, why foresight?
oriented thinking are embedded into the
formulation of strategy and recommendations to
Previously we’ve talked
about the technology
the future”
be taken now. strategy of the nation. This includes either to
Everybody knows that every decision that we make develop the technology on our own, do it in
today, either as individuals or as organisations Beata Poteralska’s piece on how Poland uses partnership collaboratively or outright acquiring
will have an impact on the future. Therefore it foresight methodology and approach in defining the technology required. In this edition we’re
makes sense to explore the potential impact of their defining national research priority areas is providing a viewpoint on technology acquisition
such decisions before they are made, and to make a prime example of future oriented analysis and and how to maximize its benefits through a
the best decisions that we can today. There are, recommendations. You could read all about it on national offset program.
however no future facts, and in a world obsessed page 06.
by data driven decision making, the challenge We are glad to say that we have garnered positive
for advocates of foresight is to demonstrate how On the home front the Malaysian ship building reviews so far on the magazine and hope to
exploring the future today will add value to the ship repairs industry is also undertaking a continually do so in making the magazine
planning processes. revolution of sorts; developing a roadmap to ensure beneficial and thought provoking.
future sustainability, whereas Datuk Dr. Salmiah’s
What foresight attempts to do is to create a better piece provide us with insights of what it takes to After reading the magazine, we expect you to have
understanding of the drivers of change and the spearhead the rubber industry into the future. your opinion on certain matters. You might agree or
megatrends as well as its impact that will enable disagree. Whichever it goes, we want to hear them.
us to have a new understanding about the future. With the growing concern of energy security, the We welcome your feedback and contributions.
The future will be nothing like the past. If you were focus on public transport especially in Malaysia
to go back only five or ten years and think about has grown considerably; Dr Aziz’s take on the
whether you could have imagined the details of the future of KL public transport infrastructure and
future that is now, what would you have thought the possibility of PRT being introduced provides
was possible? interesting food for thought.

6. January 2012
leader's insights
Private Sector R&D Vital
To Boost Growth
BY
PROF EMERITUS DATO’ DR. ZAKRI ABDUL HAMID
Science Advisor to the Prime Minister of Malaysia /
Joint Chairman - Government, MIGHT
Because the private
sector is closer to the
market, it is better
positioned to create
wealth through
R&D — transforming
knowledge into
products and services
that Malaysians and
4 others in today’s global
marketplace need,
want and will pay for.
M
ALAYSIA has successfully Across the world, the private sector carries out two- Various mechanisms were introduced globally
transformed its economy from thirds to three-quarters of R&D activities. to promote private sector R&D. Widely used
its original agricultural base financial instruments include subsidies/grants
to one characterised by strong Private sector involvement in research-driven and tax incentives. For example: A generation ago
manufacturing and service sectors. activities, therefore, is key to Malaysia’s economic the United States was one of the first nations to
growth and competitiveness. encourage private sector R&D through tax credits.
This ongoing transition moves Malaysia ever closer Since then, a range of economists have agreed that
to its official Vision 2020: a high income economy Because the private sector is closer to the market, every tax credit dollar stimulates from US$1 (RM3)
based on innovation and knowledge generation. it is better positioned to create wealth through to US$3 in additional private investment by US
R&D — transforming knowledge into products and companies.
Underpinning a high income economy are science, services that Malaysians and others in today’s global
technology and innovation, which together form marketplace need, want and will pay for. Private In the case of Malaysia, the main R&D incentives
an important contributor to economic growth and sector R&D will also strengthen the firms involved are granted in the form of “pioneer status”,
help determine the competitiveness of firms in the in innovation, which in turn allow them to improve investment tax allowance and double deduction
marketplace, nationally and internationally. productivity, succeed in competitive markets, and or tax exemption. However, an innovative, bolder
meet environmental and regulatory standards. approach is needed to enhance private sector R&D
A prerequisite for technological advancement activities, attract foreign investment and stimulate
is research and development (R&D). The level Although the private sector traditionally develops domestic investment to achieve Vision 2020.
of R&D expenditure is a reliable indicator of research capabilities in-house, they also establish
innovative capacity and the 10th Malaysia Plan aims collaborative links with other organisations, such Toward this end, the Malaysian Industry-
to achieve R&D investment of at least one per cent as universities, and acquire the results of innovation Government Group for High Technology
of GDP by 2015. Reaching that goal will require from other enterprises through licensing or (MIGHT), under the Prime Minister’s
a bold commitment, including large injections of takeovers. Finally, private sector R&D creates highly Department, was instrumental in nurturing
funds from the government and, more importantly, skilled human capital. and encouraging private sector R&D in the
the private sector. past. MIGHT has come a long way since its

7. January 2012
leader's insights
MIGHT is working closely
with ministries and industry
players to ensure that
the offset programs are
developed and structured
to address issues related
to the development of
strategic industry in
the country, leveraging
major acquisitions by the
government and government
linked companies.
Launching of Aerospace Malaysia Innovation
Centre (AMIC) By YAB Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib
Tun Abdul Razak on 6th December 2011 during
LIMA 2011.
5
establishment in 1993 as a not for- profit, industry- MIGHT is working closely with ministries and in- Centre (AMRC) in Sheffield, United Kingdom.
government partnership with a mission to promote dustry players to ensure that the offset programmes It is founded on the shared scientific excellence,
high technology development in Malaysia. are developed and structured to address issues expertise and technological innovation of the
related to the development of strategic industry in world’s leading aerospace companies, and world-
MIGHT’s agenda remains focused on two major the country, leveraging major acquisitions by the class research within the University of Sheffield’s
challenges. government and government-linked companies. Faculty of Engineering.
First: provide measured opinions on cross- These efforts respond to the prime minister’s call It develops innovative and advanced technology
sectoral issues or cross-cutting technologies, to create more revenue-based projects, and for solutions for materials forming, metal working and
and, second: take actions needed to harness the the private sector to lead in creating wealth for castings.
commercial applications of technology to foster a Malaysia.
better economic future for the nation. It also has internationally acknowledged research
An innovative approach championed by MIGHT in the field of composite materials, an area crucial
MIGHT believes the nation’s future rests on its to encourage private sector R&D is the recent to the development of Boeing’s next generation
ability to continuously harness technology for founding of the Aerospace Manufacturing In- aircraft.
business and create new industries. What is needed novation Centre (AMIC). Jointly funded by the
is a continuous, systematic effort to prospect government and industry, the centre’s participants Achieving the right balance between the public
for strategic technologies in both the traditional include the European Aeronautic Defence and sector and private industry is a complicated
fields like manufacturing and new fields, such as Space Company, Rolls-Royce and Composite economic endeavour for a country like Malaysia —
biotechnology and nanotechnology. Technology Research Malaysia. a small country with relatively limited resources.
But neither the private sector’s invisible hand
One interesting initiative to boost private sector A significant feature of AMIC is that the R&D, nor governmental heavy-handedness can be the
R&D was the offset management activities through conducted by a university consortium, will en- solution.
MIGHT’s Technology Depository Agency for courage local industry to participate and base its
the Finance Ministry. The service plays a strategic research pursuits on industry needs. It is true that the private sector cannot spur an
government role undertaken for the purpose of innovation agenda without the government, but it
ensuring that national procurement programmes AMIC will also train local talent with courses at is equally true that the government cannot replace
support the country’s development objectives Master’s and PhD levels in the field of aerospace private-sector market forces. It is imperative that
through acquisitions of technology, industrial technology. the public and private sectors work together well.
participation and market access.
The AMIC R&D centre of excellence is modelled This article was published in The News Straits Times, 20 August
on the Advanced Manufacturing Research 2011

8. January 2012
experts' insights
APPLICATION
OF FORESIGHT
Methods for the
Determination of
Priority Research
Directions of the
Future
BY
BEATA POTERALSKA
Institute for Sustainable Technologies –
National Research Institute, ul.
K. Pulaskiego 6/10, 26-600 Radom
Beata.Poteralska@itee.radom.pl
6
Summary
The article presents methodology of forecasting research directions crucial for the development of the competitiveness and innovativeness of the Polish
enterprises and technological institutes. The application of the methodology is presented on the basis of environmental technologies, one of the key
areas of technical support for the economy’s sustainable development. With the use of the developed methodology, future research directions have
been identified together with key incremental and emerging technologies within them, for whom technology characteristics cards have been created.
Following that, R&D directions have been roadmapped and scenarios of technological and educational (qualifications and competences) development
have been designed.
The priority research directions identified in the scenarios, and the incremental and emerging technologies within them, should be the core theme for
the realisation of research projects, such as national strategic programmes, for instance. The proof of the successful implementation of the methodology
developed, is “Innovative Systems of Technical Support for Sustainable Development of the Economy” strategic project launched in the thematic area
generated with the use of the methodology designed, co-financed from the European structural funds, prepared and co-ordinated by the Institute
represented by the author of the paper.
knowledge-based economy. The actions taken to solutions including, among others, the elimination
Introduction design and implement environmental solutions of inefficient, energy consuming and high-waste
Innovativeness and competitiveness of advanced are one of the key areas of technical support for industrial technologies as well as the limit on raw
product and process technologies are the deciding the sustainable economic development. As far materials and resources wasteful management is
factors in the selection of development directions as this particular area is concerned, the design really necessary.
and the development pace of a contemporary of future short- and long term environmental

9. January 2012
experts' insights
Introduction of the EU and national regulations a. The application potential of research results directions was thus possible. The description of
and documents stimulating the development of and their implementation in the process of the state-of-the-art included both the cognitive
environmental technologies and the inclusion innovative technologies development on the performance of Polish, European or international
of ecological priorities in strategic research 5-15 year horizon; scientific institutions leading in a given domain
programmes confirm the importance of research and the technological achievements resulting in
activities for the development of ecological b. The interdisciplinarity of solutions and their innovations complying with worldwide standards
solutions. An example of the document of the key potential influence on economy’s sustainable and ready to be commercially deployed. The results
importance are the directives of the European Union development; obtained embrace general research directions
directed at the creation of system requirements for on the national and global level and integrated
the development of eco-friendly technological c. The scientific and technological level of groups of these directions in a selected area of
processes and the undertaking of activities solutions complying with the highest global strategic importance comprising environmental
minimising and managing the amount of waste standards. technologies.
created through pure ecological utilisation, for
instance. Strategic research directions are identified The analyses of research projects realised at R&D The aim of the expert analyses was to support the
in governmental documents and long term plans institutions dealing with the subject matter of analysis of the state-of-the-art. External experts
for the organisation of the scope of activity of the environmental technologies were the starting point representing the science, industry and public
European and national technology platforms. The for conducted research. They were the basis for the administration sectors, who had not participated in
problem of environmental technologies ranks high formulation of general, leading research directions the initial identification of future research directions,
on the priority list of national and international realised by scientific institutes. assessed the priority research directions in the scale
research programmes as well. of the country and the sector. The consideration of
Among the key mechanisms of generating future the experts’ remarks enabled the modification and
research directions were the analysis of the state- extension of the proposed research directions, and
Determining priority research of-the-art and the expert analyses. in consequence the selection of new future research
directions and key technologies directions.
In order to use the existing resources effectively and The convergence of identified research directions
improve the level of competitiveness of national with directions of research conducted by national Within realised tasks, future research directions
economy, it is necessary to indicate strategic and international R&D institutes played an for the strategic research institute – Institute for
research directions that would comply with the important role. For this purpose the analyses of the Sustainable Technologies – National Research 7
European and national priorities and take the state-of-the-art were conducted on the basis of the Institute (ITeE-PIB) in Radom, Poland were
existing scientific and infrastructure potential in the following: determined and on that basis, leading research
undertaken thematic area into consideration. directions were generated for the sector conducting
a. Strategic Documents For The Creation environmental research with the attention paid
To determine priority future research directions, Of Country’s Industrial Policy And Eu to the needs of the country and incorporating
the methodology of their identification in the Documents; integrated leading directions of research conducted
areas of strategic importance was designed.1 in that domain globally.
The article presents procedures for conducting b. Subject And Results Of National And
research and the effects of the application of the International Foresight Project; The analysis of the key development trends and
designed methodology in relation to the area of the research results in the domain of industrial
environmental technologies.2 c. Selected Publications (I.E. In Journals By technologies influencing the improvement of the
Elsevier And Springer); environment condition enabled the identification
It was assumed that priority research directions of priority research areas that would allow for
would be determined with consideration of the d. Conference Materials From Selected the development of innovative technological
existing scientific and technological potential and Significant International And National solutions with high implementation potential. In a
its growth forecast for the next 5-10 years, which Conferences; presented thematic area, the priority directions of
is the time brackets for the realisation of generated environmental technologies include:
research tasks and directions. e. Reports On The Research Activity Of Leading
Technological Institutes And Catalogues a. technologies of producing maintenance
Both the micro scale – understood as the generation Of Innovative Products In The Area Of materials with increased maintenance values,
of research directions realised at scientific Environmental Technologies;
institutions, and the macro scale – understood as b. technologies for the rationalisation of the use
the consideration of research directions strategic f. Patent Databases. of raw materials and resources,
for the country’s development and inspired by the
results of sectoral foresights, and the consideration The analysis of the state-of-the-art was done 1
Tasks realised within the framework of the sectoral foresight project
of the strategic documents and directives of the in the iterative system and formed the basis “Advanced Industrial and Ecological Technologies for the Sustainable
European Union were applied. for the identification of priority research Development of Poland” in the 2008-2010 period, coordinated by the
directions, within which the literature analysis institute represented by the author of this paper.
2
Within the framework of the foresight project, the designed methodology
It was assumed that the determined research of the current state-of-the-art allowing to has been applied in the process of the identification of the future research
directions should comply with the following determine the most important, and previously directions in such thematic areas, besides environmental technologies, as
criteria: not incorporated research directions was material technologies and nanotechnologies; machatronic technologies
and control systems; specialised test and research apparatus; and
conducted. The verification of the priority research technologies of technical and environmental safety.

10. January 2012
experts' insights
technologies was created5. Within that database it
is possible to modify and add information about the
INTERNAL EXPERTS EXTERNAL EXPERTS technologies.
SUBSTANTIAL METHODOLOGICAL
WORK WORK CONSULTATIONS
Development scenario building
Design of Technology
Characteristics Forms Lists of priority research directions of the future and
incremental and emerging technologies in priority
List of Incremental
Technologies Incremental Technologies (Supplement, modification, directions within environmental technologies
Characteristics Form suggestions, etc. )
were the basis for the creation of scenarios of
technological development.
List of Emerging
Technologies Emerging Technologies
Characteristics Form In an original methodology developed, it was
assumed that the first stage of works conducted
would include the creation of scenarios with the
application of the analysis of the results of the
influence of key factors identified for a given
DATABASE thematic area on technologies and research
Set of Incremental and Emerging Technologies directions selected in this area.
Within the domain of environmental technologies,
Fig. 1. Procedure of the realisation of works concerning the development of technology the following key factors were identified after
characteristics. Source: Author consultations with external experts:
• The research and technological potential
c. technologies of waste recycling and through the systematic implementation of product (laboratory base, technical infrastructure –
utilisation, and process innovations. Emerging technologies4, r&d institutions and innovative enterprises);
8 on the other hand, are technologies characterised
d. low-waste technologies of manufacturing and by a dynamic development in a given area of • The levels of innovativeness and
regenerating machines and devices, knowledge and research practice, that facilitates implementation readiness of research
increased competitiveness level. results;
e. pro-ecological technologies of producing
energy, The initial technologies proposal was elaborated by • The dynamics and effectiveness of industrial
field experts that participated in the project, and was deployment of obtained solutions;
f. logistics systems for waste and energy then consulted with external experts specialising in
management. the domain of environmental technologies. • The national R&D priorities.
Detailed key research directions were identified in Simultaneously to works concerning the Following that, the impact the key factors have on
aforementioned priority areas. identification of priority technologies, internal individual technologies and groups of technologies
experts in the field of methodology participated in the area of environmental technologies was
The next stage of the undertaken research concerned in tasks concerning the design of technology analysed. The experts evaluated two elements:6
the generation of lists of priority technologies and the characteristics forms, which were consulted with
design of characteristics of identified technologies. external experts experienced in the realisation of • The influence of one of the three identified key
Works focused on the development of priority foresight projects. Due to their specificity, separate factor development tendencies (increasing,
technologies and the creation of forms for the design forms for emerging and incremental technologies decreasing, constant) on the development
of characteristics were conducted simultaneously by were created. of individual technologies and groups of
the internal experts – representatives of the project technologies;
coordinator and the external experts. The outline of The characteristics include such elements as: the
realised activities is presented in (Fig. 1). phase of technological development, the objective • The probability of the occurrence of a given
of the application of technologies, the description of tendency.
Generated priority technologies were then technological process, areas of current and potential
assigned to two groups: incremental and emerging applications, capital and employment requirements The development scenarios in the field of
technologies. The first of them influences a short and and potential effects of the implementation of environmental technologies were then built on the
long term subject area of R&D activity in Poland technologies (i.e. ecological, economic, social).
3
A. Mazurkiewicz, Mechanisms of knowledge transformation in the area
and it concerns the 5-year planning period, whereas
of advanced technologies of surface engineering. Proceedings of the
the latter enables the development of guidelines Technology characteristics cards were then created 15th IFHTSE & SMT 20 International Federation for Heat Treatment and
for a long term strategy of R&D institutes research in the form of an on-line questionnaire filled Surface Engineering Congress, Vienna 2006, pp. 270–277.
4
O. D. Soares, oth., Innovation and technology: Strategies and policies,
activity, and it deals with the 10-15-year prognosis. in with data necessary for the identification of
Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht 1997
Incremental technologies3 are technologies directed characteristics of individual technologies. As a result, 5
http://www.foresight.itee.radom.pl/chartech/index.php
at a gradual improvement of existing solutions an on-line database of incremental and emerging 6
G. Gierszewska, M. Romanowska, Analiza strategiczna przedsiębiorstwa,
PWE Warsaw 2009, pp. 199-212

11. January 2012
experts' insights
basis of the results of expert analyses. The creation
of three scenarios: dynamic development scenario,
Dynamic Stabilisation Scenario Decline scenario stabilisation scenario and decline scenario (Fig. 2)
Development • Constant tendency • Decreasing was proposed with consideration of development
Scenario of factors at the tendency of factors tendencies of individual factors and the probability
• Increasing tendency high probability • High probability of the occurrence of these tendencies.
of factors of the occurrence of the occurrence
• High probability of this tendency of this tendency It was assumed that at the next stage of scenario
of the occurrence • Increasing and building, the ranking of priority technologies and
of that tendency decreasing tendencies the results of technology implementation readiness
of factors at the assessment would be used. The list of priority
low probability of technologies assessed according to the following
the occurrence of criteria: sustainable development (embracing the
these tendencies sub-criteria of ecological, economic and social
effects) and the critical nature of technologies
including the level of the interdisciplinarity of the
solutions were applied.7 (Fig. 3)
Fig. 2. Types of scenarios of technological development – key factors’ development tendencies and
the probability of the occurrence of this tendencies taken into account. Technologies with ascribed level of priority were
Source: Author then compared with the results of the assessment
of technological readiness of detailed research
directions, within which incremental and
emerging technologies had been identified (Fig.
Technologies Prioritisation
4). Technological readiness level concerned the
Criterion: Criterion: Critical possibility of undertaking or continuing the activity
Sustainable Nature of List of Priority in the selected research direction, which should result
Development Technology
Technologies in a design of advanced incremental and emerging
technologies. It was assumed that technologies at
EXPERT Economic Interdisciplinarity
Level of the commercialisation and diffusion level, crucial
9
PANELS
Effects
Technology
List of for the development of competitiveness, and the
Incremental
Technologies incremental technological progress, together with
Ecological
Effects the generic technologies of basic importance for
the creation of technological competitiveness
List of
guaranteeing technological progress were the
Social Effects Emerging technologies of high technological readiness.
Technologies
In order to simultaneously consider the level of
priority and technological readiness of priority
technologies, a matrix, was designed which
Fig. 3. Outline of technologies prioritisation hypothetically allowed to identify the following
Source: Author lists of technologies:
• High-priority technologies with a high level
of technological readiness,
Assessment of List of Technologies
Technological with High Level • High-priority technologies with a low level of
Readiness of Technological technological readiness,
Readiness
• Low-priority technologies with a high level of
technological readiness,
EXPERT Assessment of
technological • Low-priority technologies with a low level of
PANELS readiness
of particular technological readiness.
research
directions for
commercial The matrix for the area of environmental
application technologies is presented in (Fig. 5). The individual
quarters of the matrix hold the technologies
7
Mazurkiewicz A., Sacio-Szymańska B., Poteralska B. Symela K.: „Mapy
Fig. 4. Outline of technology readiness assessment technologii w obszarze zrównoważonego rozwoju” report from the
Source: Author realisation of the „Advanced Industrial and Ecological Technologies for
the Sustainable Development of Poland”, Radom 2010.

12. January 2012
experts' insights
(research directions) complying with the priority Fig. 5. Juxtaposition of priority level and technological readiness of selected technologies
and technological readiness levels. (T1I, T2I… - incremental technologies; T1E, T2E, …- emerging technologies)
Source: Author
Within the framework of this stage of the research
100
in the domain of environmental technologies, the
Stabilisation Scenario-High Priority Dynamic Development Scenario
following results were confronted: 90 Technologies
• list of technologies of high priority and high 80
level of technological readiness and
70
PRIORITY LEVEL
technologies and research directions identified
T3E
in the dynamic development scenario built with 60
T
T 2E
the consideration of development tendencies 4E
T
141 T
50 1E
of key factors together with the probability of T
10I
the occurrence of these tendencies; 40 T T
T
13I T
12I
8I 3I
T T
1I 11P
T
• list of technologies of low priority with 30 T
6I T T
21
7I 9I
high level of technological readiness and T
5I T
4I T
20 Proecological 21
technologies and research directions identified Technologies
in the stabilisation scenario built with the 10 Stabilisation scenario - technologies with
consideration of development tendencies of Decline Scenario high level of technological readiness
0
key factors together with the probability of the 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
occurrence of these tendencies
TECHNOLOGICAL READINESS LEVEL
The results obtained, formed the basis for the
creation of technological progress scenarios Dynamic Development Scenario of sustainable development and the difficulty to
identifying priority research directions For Environmental Technologies estimate ecological advantages the implementation
and technologies, for which there are great The research carried out in the domain of of these technologies would bring. In many cases,
10 development possibilities in Poland and whose environmental technologies is mainly determined this attitude leads to growing ignorance and
development is determined by the changes by the research directions in other scientific areas, sometimes even the lack of society’s approval
of tendencies of key factors influencing the including: material technologies, nanotechnologies, towards spending public funds on the development
dynamics of the R&D work in the area of mechatronic technologies, test and research and implementation of these technologies.
environmental technologies. At the time of their apparatus and technical and environmental safety Usually that happens in the case of technologies
building, it was assumed that scenarios should technologies, as well as the necessity to comply whose development and implementation result
take into consideration the research directions with legal regulations concerning environmental from the necessity to adjust national economy to
and within their framework the technologies protection. international requirements and legislation
whose development and implementation would concerning protection of the environment
result in a higher technological level and the Environmental technologies are characterised and the climate. The development of advanced
growth in competitiveness of businesses in by a high level of interdisciplinarity, technical environmental technologies has one extremely
which innovative environmental solutions are advancement and flexibility as well as high crucial effect, though – it leads to the rationalisation
applied. Additionally, the identification and complexity and multiscale. Emerging technologies of the use of raw materials and resources, which is the
forecasting of needs concerning knowledge, skills that are currently being developed in this scientific requisite of a permanent sustainable development
and competences necessary for the creation and domain are innovations creating the possibility to of the economy.
application of new technologies, as well as the rank high on competitiveness. The examples of
development of recommendations for future such technologies include: technologies of biomass Stabilisation Scenario For
occupations, qualifications and modular system liquidation and gasification, production of energy Environmental Technologies
solutions are also of great importance, as they from waste, recycling of resources and materials and The development of environmental technologies is
result in an effective organisation and realisation of technologies of co-combustion of scrap biomass characterised by low dynamics and the continuation
educational processes and the retraining of with conventional fuels. The development of of research activity in existing directions leading
personnel to meet the requirements of advanced highly effective technologies of gaining energy from to the improvement of already known solutions.
industrial technologies. reusable sources is characterised by its growing The technologies analysed are of average priority
importance among emerging environmental for sustainable development and have either high
On the basis of the confrontation of technologies technologies. or average level of technological readiness. Many
assessed according to the priority and technological solutions are designed and implemented to meet
readiness criteria with technologies and research As far as environmental technologies are concerned, the norms and standards concerning environmental
directions indicated by the scenarios considering the ratio of costs to immediate financial benefits is protection and their character is rather temporary
the development tendencies of key factors and the higher when taking short term perspective into
probability of the occurrence of these tendencies consideration. This apparent dominance of costs 8
Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B., Sacio-Szymańska A., Łabędzka J.
Zintegrowane scenariusze rozwoju technologicznego. In: Mazurkiewicz
in the area of environmental technologies, the over the effects mainly stems from the public’s
A., Poteralska B. (red.) Zaawansowane technologie przemysłowe i
dynamic development and the stabilisation scenario habit to concentrate on short term objectives, ekologiczne dla zrównoważonego rozwoju kraju. Wybrane zagadnienia.
were built8 . lack of consideration towards greater time scale Instytut Technologii Eksploatacji – Państwowy Instytut Badawczy, Radom
2011.

13. January 2012
experts' insights
and incidental. Long term ecological actions physics, material engineering, ecology, Proposed detailed research directions in the
for the protection of the environment for future biotechnology and nanotechnology for instance, strategic programme “Innovative Systems for
generations are of secondary importance and the are needed for the development of environmental the Technical Support of the Development
emphasis is put on the development of technologies technologies. The existing educational system of Economy” correspond with the directions
that enable the removal and repair of already focuses on formal education, which results in identified as priority directions in the sectoral
existing environmental damage. the lack of legal and institutional regulations and foresight project. Some examples of the correlation
procedures that would acknowledge the process of of research directions is presented in (Tab. 1).
The most intensive is the development of informal and non-formal education of the employee The thematic area of environmental technologies
incremental solutions directed at the improvement within or outside their work place. Promotion of ranks high on importance within the framework
of existing solutions exercised through the continuing environmental education needs to be of the strategic research programme. The growing
gradual implementation of novel ideas based on accompanied by its development consisting of importance of this particular thematic area within
new knowledge. Incremental research concerns the creation and reorganisation of the continuing the strategic programme is also confirmed by the
the advancement of current technologies or education centres offering educational programmes increasing role of the aspects of energy saving and
their implementation in new application areas. suitable for the needs and capabilities of various new, ecological sources of its acquisition and the
Technologies developed include technologies for specialists. Moreover, it is important to extend question of environment protection and technical
the rationalisation of the use of materials and the educational field of activity of technology safety to maintain economic growth according to
resources, with greatest attention paid to waste transfer offices (i.e. technology parks, technology the principles of sustainable development, which
recycling and utilisation technologies, technologies transfer offices, entrepreneurship incubators) has been emphasised in the new development
of textile and thermoplastic polymer composites and incorporate into their curricula professional strategy of the European Union – “Europe 2020.”
recycling, technical systems for the support of training courses for the needs of development and
environmental maintenance of operating fluids, implementation of innovative technologies. Furthermore, as a result of conducted research,
application of membrane systems in recycling and a thematic scope for the strategic programme
utilisation technologies for aqueous operating “Advanced Technologies of the Future for
fluids and sewage, technologies of production and Implementation of the scenarios in Sustainable Development” encompassing the
regeneration of elements of machines and devices the form of strategic programmes subjects directed at the development of research in
with the application of polymer nanocomposites. The priority research directions and incremental priority directions in the long (10-15 years) run was
Besides, technologies of co-combustion of and emerging technologies identified in the identified. Within the framework of the programme,
flammable waste with conventional fuels and scenarios form the scope for future thematic areas emerging technologies, indicated in the scenario 11
methods of stabilisation and improvement that should be considered for realisation within of the dynamic development within the sectoral
of operational properties of biofuels. This is the framework of research projects, especially in foresight project, will be mainly considered.
accompanied by the development of logistics the form of national strategic programmes. It is
systems for waste and energy management including: assumed, that there will be two kinds of research It has been assumed that the proposed structure of
systems for on-line measurement of volatile and projects conducted in the future: highly specialist the strategic programme will only encompass those
solid products of combustion and devices for programmes limited to the selected thematic area, thematic areas which are of key importance from
their realisation. Parallel is the development of characterised by a very high level of minuteness the perspective of the current strategic documents
production technologies for maintenance materials of details and a close participation of scientific of the European Union, including “Europe 2020”
with increased ecological qualities, among which organisations specialising in that particular field, Strategy, complying with the priorities concerning
there are specialised ecological operating fluids on and interdisciplinary programmes covering vast the support for power engineering industry,
the basis of non-toxic, biodegradable natural and thematic areas penetrating one another. The success technical and environmental protection and
synthetic components. of research and scientific institutions will depend on safety. Among the thematic areas proposed in the
their participation in both of those types of projects strategic9 programme, there are groups particularly
Qualifications and Competences as well as on the development and implementation connected with ecology: innovative energy systems
Development Scenarios of effective procedures of research results transfer and the rationalisation of the usage of resources;
Environmental technologies, rationalisation of the and industrial deployment in the form of advanced environmental protection and technical safety
use of raw materials and resources and reusable process and product technologies. technologies.
energy sources are an important element of
knowledge transfer to education, which facilitates Selected priority research directions and
country’s sustainable development. Constant technologies have been included in the “Innovative Conclusions
progress characterises the process of gaining Systems for the Technical Support of Sustainable Due to great significance of the effective
knowledge, skills and competences in the domain Development of Economy” approved for realisation development and implementation of environmental
of environmental technologies. Technical faculties in the 2010-1014 period within European Structural technologies, as well as the necessity to create
should offer complex, interdisciplinary vocational Funds co-financing the Innovative Economy technological solutions in this area, there is a need
training mingled with knowledge of specialised Operational Programme, within which the research for the identification of priority research areas and
innovative environmental technologies, as well realised focuses on incremental technologies their correlation in accordance to the research
as knowledge of the environment itself and its development in a short (3-5 years) run. The potential of the entire country, region and the
protection complying with the principles of technologies considered for realisation within strategic research institute. For that, methodology
sustainable development. this programme are the incremental technologies of identifying and selecting priority research
identified in the stabilisation scenario.
Specialised and interdisciplinary knowledge 9
EUROPE 2020. A European strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth, Communication from the Commission, Brussels, 3.3.2010,
together with the latest knowledge of chemistry,
KOM(2010).

14. January 2012
experts' insights
underlying assumption in the creation of the
Tab.1. Examples of the correlation of the scope of the research activity of the sectoral foresight
computer system. Moreover, it has been assumed
project and the strategic programme in the area of environmental technologies
that the computer system will enable the integration
Source: Author
of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative
methods with expert knowledge.
SECTORAL FORESIGHT PROJECT STRATEGIC PROGRAMME “INNOVATIVE The computer system will be equipped with
“ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS FOR THE TECHNICAL SUPPORT
ECOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR a medium- and long-term forecasting module
OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMY”
THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF that will allow for the automation of the process
POLAND” of generating multidimensional spheres of key
change factors, ranking technologies according
Research Technology Research Technology to their innovativeness and competitiveness, and
Direction Group Direction Group identifying the sets of the most probable hypotheses.
The expertise of both internal and external experts
will be fed into the computer system.
Production • Production technologies Development of • Ecological
technologies of of specialised, ecological ecological technologies operating fluids
maintenance operating fluids based of production, based on natural The designed system will comprise a useful tool
materials with higher on natural and synthetic maintenance, recycling and synthetic for the support of generation of future research
ecological value components and utilisation of components
operating materials directions and technologies and the creation of
scenarios of their development. It will assist in
• Methods of the the creation and implementation of strategies for
utilisation of waste fluids Development of • Methods of the
from the processes methods and technical a research organisation in the area of generating
utilisation of waste
of surface treatment systems increasing fluids from the the directions of the research both in the short
and material removal environmental safety processes of surface and the long term. It will also assist in the planned
Technologies of the
processes in metals treatment and and realised development of its infrastructure
rationalisation of the Development of
use of raw materials material removal
• Application of ecological technologies processes in metals according to the priority research areas selected for
and resources of production,
membrane systems for the institution.
aqueous technological maintenance, recycling • Membrane
12 fluids recycling and and utilisation of processes in
utilisation, operating materials maintenance,
REFERENCES
recycling and
• Technical systems utilisation of Albright R., Nelson B. Product and Technology Mapping Tools for
for the support operating fluids Planning and Portfolio Decision Making. In: Belliveau P., Griffin A.,
of environmental Somermeyer S. (eds.). John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2004.
maintenance of
EUROPE 2020. A European strategy for smart, sustainable and
technological fluids inclusive growth, Communication from the Commission, Brussels,
3.3.2010, KOM(2010).
Technologies of • Technologies for the Systems and methods • Technologies of recycling Foresight Methodologies, Technology Foresight Initiative, Training
waste recycling and recycling of textile and of scrap operating of textile and polymer Module 2, UNIDO, Vienna, Austria, 2004
utilization thermoplastic polymer materials management composite waste
composites Gierszewska G., Romanowska M., Analiza strategiczna
Application of przedsiębiorstwa, PWE Warsaw 2009.
• Catalytic fillings
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of industrial waste processes in industrial technologies of industrial area of advanced technologies of surface engineering. Proceedings
purification waste management sewage purification of the 15th IFHTSE & SMT 20 International Federation for Heat
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Mazurkiewicz A., Poteralska B., Sacio-Szymańska A., Łabędzka
J. Zintegrowane scenariusze rozwoju technologicznego. In:
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przemysłowe i ekologiczne dla zrównoważonego rozwoju
kraju. Wybrane zagadnienia. Instytut Technologii Eksploatacji –
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problems., w: Memorias de 15 Convencion Scientifica de
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from the realisation of the „Advanced Industrial and Ecological
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15. January 2012
industry insights
SPEARHEADING
SECOND FRONTIER
of Sustainability in Malaysian Rubber Industry
BY
DATUK DR. SALMIAH AHMAD
Director General,
Malaysian Rubber Board
drsalmi@lgm.gov.my
13