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AGGREGATE SUPPLY:
INTRODUCTION AND
   DETERMINANTS

    MODULE 18
AGGREGATE SUPPLY

• The aggregate supply curve shows
  the     relationship   between    the
  aggregate price level and the
  quantity     of    aggregate   output
  supplied in the economy.
• There is a distinction between the
  short-run and the long-run aggregate
  supply curves.

                                          2
THE SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE
          SUPPLY CURVE
• There is a positive relationship, in the
  short run, between the aggregate
  price level and the quantity of
  aggregate output supplied.
• Other things equal, a rise in the
  aggregate price level is associated
  with a rise in the quantity of
  aggregate output supplied; a fall in
  the   aggregate       price   level    is
  associated with a fall in the quantity
  of aggregate output supplied.               3
UPWARD SLOPING SHORT-RUN
    AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
• Producers will produce more goods
  and services the more profitable it is
  for them .
• Profit per unit of output= Price per unit
  of output – Production cost per unit of
  output




                                              4
WHY IS THE SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE
 SUPPLY CURVE UPWARD SLOPING?
• Is the price the producer receives for
  a unit of output greater or less than
  the cost of producing that unit of
  output?
• Remember that many of the costs
  producers face are fixed per unit of
  output and can’t be changed for a
  certain period of time.

                                           5
“STICKY” WAGES

• Wages are typically an inflexible
  production cost because nominal
  wages are determined by contracts
  that were signed some time ago.
• Companies are also reluctant to
  change wages in response to
  economic conditions.



                                      6
“STICKY” WAGES
• Producers won’t lower wages in times
  of an economic downturn (unless it is
  particularly long and severe) for fear
  of creating worker resentment.
• Producers won’t raise wages during
  good economic times (until they are
  at risk of losing employees to
  competitors) as they won’t want to
  encourage       them    to   routinely
  demand higher wages.
                                           7
“STICKY” WAGES
• Therefore,      the       economy        is
  characterized by sticky wages:
  nominal wages that are slow to fall
  even     in   the       face    of   high
  unemployment and slow to rise even
  in the face of labor shortages.
• Sticky wages cannot be sticky
  forever,    as      ultimately,    formal
  contracts and informal agreements
  will be renegotiated to take the
  economic         circumstances        into
  account.                                      8
SHORT RUN TO LONG RUN

• How long it takes for nominal wages
  to become flexible is the integral
  component that differences the short
  run from the long run.




                                         9
SUPPLY TO AGGREGATE SUPPLY
• Remember from microeconomics
  that perfectly competitive firms will
  supply more of a good when the
  price is higher, increasing the
  output, to increase profit.
• Conversely, when the price falls, the
  profit falls as well, so perfectly
  competitive firms will decrease
  output in response to a falling price.

                                           10
SUPPLY TO AGGREGATE SUPPLY
• Now       imagine        an     imperfectly
  competitive producer that sets its own
  price: if there is a rise in demand for his
  product, he will be able to sell more at
  any given price, so he will probably
  choose to increase his prices as well
  as his output, to increase profit.
• An industry’s “pricing power” means
  that when demand is strong, firms with
  pricing power are able to raise prices-
  and they do.
                                            11
SUPPLY TO AGGREGATE SUPPLY

• Conversely, when there is a fall in
  demand, firms will try to limit the fall in
  their sales by cutting prices.
• Therefore, the response of firms in
  both perfectly competitive industries
  and       imperfectly       competitive
  industries lead to an upward-sloping
  relationship between aggregate
  output and the aggregate price
  level.
                                                12
SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE

• The short-run aggregate supply curve
  shows relationship between the
  aggregate price level and the
  quantity    of  aggregate     output
  supplied that exists during the short
  run, which is the time period when
  many production costs (particularly
  nominal wages), can be taken as
  fixed.


                                          13
SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE

• The positive relationship between the
  aggregate       price     level  and
  aggregate output in the short run
  gives the short-run aggregate supply
  curve its upward slope.




                                          14
SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE




                                   15
SHIFTS OF THE SHORT RUN
      AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
• Movements along the short-run
  aggregate supply curve (SRAS) are
  due to changes in the aggregate
  price level.
• However, there can also be shifts of
  the SRAS curve.
• A decrease in SRSA means a shift
  leftward of the curve and an
  increase in SRAS means a shift
  rightward of the curve.
                                         16
SHIFTS OF THE SHORT RUN
      AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
• Aggregate supply increases when
  producers increase the quantity of
  aggregate output they are willing to
  supply at any given aggregate price
  level.
• Anything    that        changes     the
  production costs will change the
  amount of profit the producer
  earns, and will shift the SRAS curve.

                                            17
SHIFTS OF THE SHORT RUN
      AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE


• There are three important factors
  that affect producer’s profit per unit
  and shifts in the SRAS curve:
1. Changes in commodity prices
2. Changes in nominal wages
3. Changes in productivity



                                           18
CHANGES IN COMMODITY PRICES

• A commodity is a standardized input
  bought and sold in bulk quantities.
  They are not a final good, so their
  prices are not included in the
  calculation of the aggregate price
  level.
• However, commodities represent a
  significant  cost of production to
  most suppliers, so their prices have
  large impacts on production costs.
                                         19
CHANGES IN COMMODITY PRICES
• An increase in the price of a
  commodity raises production costs
  across the economy and reduces
  the quantity of aggregate output
  supplied at any price level, shifting
  the SRAS curve to the left.
• Conversely,      a      decrease    in
  commodity prices reduces the
  production costs, leading to an
  increase in the quantity supplied at
  any aggregate price level and a
  rightward shift of the SRAS curve.     20
CHANGES IN NOMINAL WAGES

• Dollar wages are fixed because they
  are set by contracts or informal
  agreements made in the past.
• However, once enough time has
  passed for the contracts and
  agreements             to             be
  renegotiated, these nominal wages
  can change.
• This will increase production costs
  and shift the SRAS curve to the left.
                                             21
CHANGES IN NOMINAL WAGES




• Conversely, when there is a fall in the
  nominal wages, this will reduce
  production costs and shift the SRAS
  curve to the right.




                                            22
CHANGES IN NOMINAL WAGES

• An increase in the price of a
  commodity will have a “knock on”
  effect which magnifies the leftward
  shift of the SRAS curve when there
  are cost-of-living allowances built
  into the wage contracts.
• The increase in commodity prices will
  lead to an increase in overall
  consumer prices, which then causes
  a rise in nominal wages.
                                          23
CHANGES IN PRODUCTIVITY


• An increase in productivity means
  that a worker can produce more
  units of output     with the same
  quantity of inputs.
• When                    productivity
  increases, producer costs fall and
  profits rise.



                                         24
CHANGES IN PRODUCTIVITY

• Therefore, a rise in productivity
  increases the producer’s profits and
  shifts the SRAS curve to the right.
• Conversely, a fall in productivity
  reduces the number of units of
  output a worker can produce with
  the same quantity of inputs. The cost
  per unit of output rises, profit
  falls, and quantity supplied falls. This
  shifts the SRAS curve to the left.
                                             25
FACTORS THAT SHIFT THE SHORT-RUN
      AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
 CHANGES IN     If commodity prices fall…   SRAS increases
 COMMODITY      If commodity prices rise… SRAS decreases
   PRICES
                If nominal wages fall…      SRAS increases
  CHANGES IN    If nominal wages rise…      SRAS decreases
NOMINAL WAGES
                If workers become more      SRAS increases
 CHANGES IN
                productive…

PRODUCTIVITY
                If workers become less      SRAS decreases
                productive…




                                                             26
THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
• In the long run, nominal wages are
  flexible, not sticky.
• This wage flexibility alters the long-run
  relationship between the aggregate
  price level and aggregate supply.
• In the long run, the aggregate price
  level has no effect on the quantity of
  aggregate output supplied.
• Therefore the long run is defined as
  the period of time in which all prices
  are fully flexible.
                                          27
THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
• In the long run, inflation or deflation
  has the same effect as changing all
  the prices by the same proportion.
• As a result, changes in the aggregate
  price level don’t change the quantity
  of aggregate output supplied in the
  long run.
• Changes in the aggregate price
  level, in the long run, will be
  accompanied by equal proportional
  changes in all input prices, including
  nominal wages.                          28
THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
• The long-run aggregate supply curve
  shows the relationship between the
  aggregate price level and the
  quantity     of    aggregate  output
  supplied that would exist if all
  prices,        including     nominal
  wages, were fully flexible.
• The LRAS curve is vertical because
  changes in the aggregate price level
  have no effect on aggregate output
  in the long run.
                                         29
THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
• The position of the LRAS curve on the
  horizontal axis is an important
  benchmark for output.
• The LRAS curve is located at the
  point of potential output, the level of
  real GDP the economy would
  produce if all prices, including
  nominal wages, were fully flexible.
• This point defines the trend around
  which actual output fluctuates from
  year to year.
                                        30
LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY




                            31
SHIFTS IN THE LRAS CURVE

• Rightward shifts in the LRAS curve are
  related    to    long-run     economic
  growth:
1. Increase in the quantity of resources,
   including land, labor, capital, and
   entrepreneurship
2. Increases in the quality of resources
3. Technological progress


                                            32
SHIFTS IN THE LRAS CURVE


• Long-run economic growth is growth
  in the economy’s potential output.
• The LRAS curve shifts to the right over
  time as economy experiences long-
  run growth.




                                            33
FROM THE SHORT RUN TO THE LONG RUN



• The economy normally produces
  more or less than potential output.
• So the economy is normally on its
  SRAS curve but not on its LRAS curve.




                                          34
FROM THE SHORT RUN TO THE LONG RUN
• The economy is always in one of two
  states with respect to the short-run and
  long-run aggregate supply curves:
1. It   can     be    on    both     curves
   simultaneously, by being on the point
   where both curves intersect (when
   both actual and potential output
   coincide)
2. It can be on the SRAS curve but not on
   the    LRAS    curve    (when     actual
   aggregate output and potential
   output do not coincide).
                                              35
36
FROM THE SHORT RUN TO THE LONG RUN

• If the economy is on the short-run but
  not the long-run aggregate supply
  curve, the SRAS curve will shift over
  time until the economy is at a point
  where both curves cross-a point
  where actual aggregate output is
  equal to potential output.




                                           37
LONG RUN EQUILIBRIUM




                       38
EQUILIBRIUM IN THE LONG RUN

Read through the Figure 18.5 on
page 187 to see how the process
of adjusting from a point higher
than or lower than actual output
will tend to shift the SRAS curve
back to intersect with the LRAS
curve at potential output.



                                    39
RECESSIONARY GAP




                   40
INFLATIONARY GAP




                   41

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Aggregate supply module 18

  • 1. AGGREGATE SUPPLY: INTRODUCTION AND DETERMINANTS MODULE 18
  • 2. AGGREGATE SUPPLY • The aggregate supply curve shows the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output supplied in the economy. • There is a distinction between the short-run and the long-run aggregate supply curves. 2
  • 3. THE SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • There is a positive relationship, in the short run, between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output supplied. • Other things equal, a rise in the aggregate price level is associated with a rise in the quantity of aggregate output supplied; a fall in the aggregate price level is associated with a fall in the quantity of aggregate output supplied. 3
  • 4. UPWARD SLOPING SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • Producers will produce more goods and services the more profitable it is for them . • Profit per unit of output= Price per unit of output – Production cost per unit of output 4
  • 5. WHY IS THE SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE UPWARD SLOPING? • Is the price the producer receives for a unit of output greater or less than the cost of producing that unit of output? • Remember that many of the costs producers face are fixed per unit of output and can’t be changed for a certain period of time. 5
  • 6. “STICKY” WAGES • Wages are typically an inflexible production cost because nominal wages are determined by contracts that were signed some time ago. • Companies are also reluctant to change wages in response to economic conditions. 6
  • 7. “STICKY” WAGES • Producers won’t lower wages in times of an economic downturn (unless it is particularly long and severe) for fear of creating worker resentment. • Producers won’t raise wages during good economic times (until they are at risk of losing employees to competitors) as they won’t want to encourage them to routinely demand higher wages. 7
  • 8. “STICKY” WAGES • Therefore, the economy is characterized by sticky wages: nominal wages that are slow to fall even in the face of high unemployment and slow to rise even in the face of labor shortages. • Sticky wages cannot be sticky forever, as ultimately, formal contracts and informal agreements will be renegotiated to take the economic circumstances into account. 8
  • 9. SHORT RUN TO LONG RUN • How long it takes for nominal wages to become flexible is the integral component that differences the short run from the long run. 9
  • 10. SUPPLY TO AGGREGATE SUPPLY • Remember from microeconomics that perfectly competitive firms will supply more of a good when the price is higher, increasing the output, to increase profit. • Conversely, when the price falls, the profit falls as well, so perfectly competitive firms will decrease output in response to a falling price. 10
  • 11. SUPPLY TO AGGREGATE SUPPLY • Now imagine an imperfectly competitive producer that sets its own price: if there is a rise in demand for his product, he will be able to sell more at any given price, so he will probably choose to increase his prices as well as his output, to increase profit. • An industry’s “pricing power” means that when demand is strong, firms with pricing power are able to raise prices- and they do. 11
  • 12. SUPPLY TO AGGREGATE SUPPLY • Conversely, when there is a fall in demand, firms will try to limit the fall in their sales by cutting prices. • Therefore, the response of firms in both perfectly competitive industries and imperfectly competitive industries lead to an upward-sloping relationship between aggregate output and the aggregate price level. 12
  • 13. SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • The short-run aggregate supply curve shows relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output supplied that exists during the short run, which is the time period when many production costs (particularly nominal wages), can be taken as fixed. 13
  • 14. SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • The positive relationship between the aggregate price level and aggregate output in the short run gives the short-run aggregate supply curve its upward slope. 14
  • 15. SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE 15
  • 16. SHIFTS OF THE SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • Movements along the short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS) are due to changes in the aggregate price level. • However, there can also be shifts of the SRAS curve. • A decrease in SRSA means a shift leftward of the curve and an increase in SRAS means a shift rightward of the curve. 16
  • 17. SHIFTS OF THE SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • Aggregate supply increases when producers increase the quantity of aggregate output they are willing to supply at any given aggregate price level. • Anything that changes the production costs will change the amount of profit the producer earns, and will shift the SRAS curve. 17
  • 18. SHIFTS OF THE SHORT RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • There are three important factors that affect producer’s profit per unit and shifts in the SRAS curve: 1. Changes in commodity prices 2. Changes in nominal wages 3. Changes in productivity 18
  • 19. CHANGES IN COMMODITY PRICES • A commodity is a standardized input bought and sold in bulk quantities. They are not a final good, so their prices are not included in the calculation of the aggregate price level. • However, commodities represent a significant cost of production to most suppliers, so their prices have large impacts on production costs. 19
  • 20. CHANGES IN COMMODITY PRICES • An increase in the price of a commodity raises production costs across the economy and reduces the quantity of aggregate output supplied at any price level, shifting the SRAS curve to the left. • Conversely, a decrease in commodity prices reduces the production costs, leading to an increase in the quantity supplied at any aggregate price level and a rightward shift of the SRAS curve. 20
  • 21. CHANGES IN NOMINAL WAGES • Dollar wages are fixed because they are set by contracts or informal agreements made in the past. • However, once enough time has passed for the contracts and agreements to be renegotiated, these nominal wages can change. • This will increase production costs and shift the SRAS curve to the left. 21
  • 22. CHANGES IN NOMINAL WAGES • Conversely, when there is a fall in the nominal wages, this will reduce production costs and shift the SRAS curve to the right. 22
  • 23. CHANGES IN NOMINAL WAGES • An increase in the price of a commodity will have a “knock on” effect which magnifies the leftward shift of the SRAS curve when there are cost-of-living allowances built into the wage contracts. • The increase in commodity prices will lead to an increase in overall consumer prices, which then causes a rise in nominal wages. 23
  • 24. CHANGES IN PRODUCTIVITY • An increase in productivity means that a worker can produce more units of output with the same quantity of inputs. • When productivity increases, producer costs fall and profits rise. 24
  • 25. CHANGES IN PRODUCTIVITY • Therefore, a rise in productivity increases the producer’s profits and shifts the SRAS curve to the right. • Conversely, a fall in productivity reduces the number of units of output a worker can produce with the same quantity of inputs. The cost per unit of output rises, profit falls, and quantity supplied falls. This shifts the SRAS curve to the left. 25
  • 26. FACTORS THAT SHIFT THE SHORT-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE CHANGES IN If commodity prices fall… SRAS increases COMMODITY If commodity prices rise… SRAS decreases PRICES If nominal wages fall… SRAS increases CHANGES IN If nominal wages rise… SRAS decreases NOMINAL WAGES If workers become more SRAS increases CHANGES IN productive… PRODUCTIVITY If workers become less SRAS decreases productive… 26
  • 27. THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • In the long run, nominal wages are flexible, not sticky. • This wage flexibility alters the long-run relationship between the aggregate price level and aggregate supply. • In the long run, the aggregate price level has no effect on the quantity of aggregate output supplied. • Therefore the long run is defined as the period of time in which all prices are fully flexible. 27
  • 28. THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • In the long run, inflation or deflation has the same effect as changing all the prices by the same proportion. • As a result, changes in the aggregate price level don’t change the quantity of aggregate output supplied in the long run. • Changes in the aggregate price level, in the long run, will be accompanied by equal proportional changes in all input prices, including nominal wages. 28
  • 29. THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • The long-run aggregate supply curve shows the relationship between the aggregate price level and the quantity of aggregate output supplied that would exist if all prices, including nominal wages, were fully flexible. • The LRAS curve is vertical because changes in the aggregate price level have no effect on aggregate output in the long run. 29
  • 30. THE LONG-RUN AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE • The position of the LRAS curve on the horizontal axis is an important benchmark for output. • The LRAS curve is located at the point of potential output, the level of real GDP the economy would produce if all prices, including nominal wages, were fully flexible. • This point defines the trend around which actual output fluctuates from year to year. 30
  • 32. SHIFTS IN THE LRAS CURVE • Rightward shifts in the LRAS curve are related to long-run economic growth: 1. Increase in the quantity of resources, including land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship 2. Increases in the quality of resources 3. Technological progress 32
  • 33. SHIFTS IN THE LRAS CURVE • Long-run economic growth is growth in the economy’s potential output. • The LRAS curve shifts to the right over time as economy experiences long- run growth. 33
  • 34. FROM THE SHORT RUN TO THE LONG RUN • The economy normally produces more or less than potential output. • So the economy is normally on its SRAS curve but not on its LRAS curve. 34
  • 35. FROM THE SHORT RUN TO THE LONG RUN • The economy is always in one of two states with respect to the short-run and long-run aggregate supply curves: 1. It can be on both curves simultaneously, by being on the point where both curves intersect (when both actual and potential output coincide) 2. It can be on the SRAS curve but not on the LRAS curve (when actual aggregate output and potential output do not coincide). 35
  • 36. 36
  • 37. FROM THE SHORT RUN TO THE LONG RUN • If the economy is on the short-run but not the long-run aggregate supply curve, the SRAS curve will shift over time until the economy is at a point where both curves cross-a point where actual aggregate output is equal to potential output. 37
  • 39. EQUILIBRIUM IN THE LONG RUN Read through the Figure 18.5 on page 187 to see how the process of adjusting from a point higher than or lower than actual output will tend to shift the SRAS curve back to intersect with the LRAS curve at potential output. 39