1. EARLY WARNING ANALYSIS FOR HUMAN
PREPAREDNESS AND CONFLICT PREVENTION
IN KASHMIR
By Suzette Lewis, Sarah McKenzie, Troy Powell Jas Palta
and Ashlyn Exeley

2. SOCIO ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
 • Decolonization created
new structures
 o Introduction to
‘nationalism’ in India
sharpened religious divide
 o Effect of combining
numerous kingdoms and
fiefdoms into two states
 • Rise of political
consciousness
 • Legislated human rights
violations (ie Armed
Forces Special Powers Act
1990)
 • Insurgency
 o Internal jihadists until
1995 when externals were
introduced
 • Bad leadership
 • Build-up of military
 • Lack of rule of law Ethnic
Identity
 • Split between Muslims
(majority) and Hindu
(minority rulers)

3. STATE AND INSTITUTIONS
 India:
 - democratic
 - starting to privatize in
response to fast economic
growth
 - nuclear state
 Pakistan:
 - Unstable democracy
 - in the process of
constitutional reform
 - historically military rule
 - weak judiciary
 - nuclear state
 Kashmir:
 India-administered Kashmir
 - state constitution
 - elected government
(questionable)
 Pakistan-administered
Kashmir
 - administered by Pakistan
 - no democratic
representation

4. REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION
 History of Settlements,
Coastal Settlements from
1501-1709. British East
India Company
(Monopolistic arm of the
British government) Came
in like other mercantile
forms into port cities where
they traded for textiles.)
Biggest cities of India
created during this time.
As the political vacuums in
India spread Britain got
more aggressive. Mid
1700s East India Company
won a territorial dispute
over a Bengali Kingdom.
 1857: Rebellion : reaction to British rule over princely
states. (British East India Company Kept subsuming
states)

 Reaction to this is that the crown replaced the East India
Company as the custodian of these states.

 Russian Empire and British Expansion
 Afghanistan remained as a buffer state.

 Post WWI fight for Independence. (India wanted
recognition after fighting)

 British concern was paramount in and around borders

 Maharaj's Prince's were giving leeway in what countries
they would join, The Maharaj of Kashmir was torn
(would've preferred to be an independent state)
Countered by both Pakistan and India.

 1947 Pakistan sends in irregulars, training them to
overrun Kashmir militarily
Maharaj intends to Join Jammu and Kashmir to India.
First war between India and Pakistan. (Indian sends in
military) Ultimately agree to a cease fire line. (Line of
Control)
 Pakistan is determined to gain the territory. Fight again
1965. Pakistan starts sending in militants to try to
convince the Kashmiri to rise up again India (Islam
majority) India finds out and sends its army across the
border and in to Pakistan. Indo-Pakistan war 1965 5
weeks

5. REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION
 Results
 Both countries take
territory from each other.
 Both countries run out of
ammunition. (US
embargo)
 China India and
Pakistani (Trilateral
ownership), Indus Water
Treaty, (River Navigation,
Power Generation) Out
of state sponsoring of
Terrorists, Arms
smuggling. Mutual Indian
and Pakistani accusation
of "illegal" ownership and
disputed territory.
 Terrorism, and Ex-State
Sponsors (Politically,
Arms etc)

6. EUROPEAN SETTLEMENTS IN INDIA
From 1501 - 1739

7. MAP OF THE INDIAN EMPIRE

8. REGIONAL MAP/ TIMELINE

9. HUMAN RIGHTS AND CIVIL LIBERTIES
 The human rights record of the
Indian security forces in
Kashmir characterized by
arbitrary arrests, torture, rape
and extrajudicial killings. These
have been extensively
documented by human rights
organizations such as Human
Rights Watch and the PUCL
(Union for Civil Liberties) and
others. Most of these violations
routinely go unchecked and
unpunished, "justified" as
unavoidable in a proxy war
managed by Pakistan; only a
handful cases have been
brought to justice by due
process. Often, New Delhi's
response to the reports by
various human rights
organizations has been evasive.
 2477 civilians had been killed by
the Indian forces in the period
1990-1998 (PTI release, 13
September 1998), according to
conservative estimates by official
sources which mostly exclude
thousands of custodial killings. In
April 1997, the Minister of State
for Home Affairs admitted that
454 persons were missing since
1990.

10. HUMAN RIGHTS CIVIL LIBERTIES CONT
 Indian Perspective-India sought to
suppress he resistance with a massive use
of force killings hundreds of innocent
men/women/ children in the year it began,
1989. The continued repression led
Kashmir youth to militancy. Jihadi forces in
the Region already in battle harness and
looking for conflict helped out/ the
resistance was not created "de novo"(new
beginnings). More than 60,000 Kashmiris
have been killed since 1989 directly at the
hands of over 600,000 Indian troops or in
hostilities undertaken on their behalf by the
state security apparatus and renegade
militias. Thousands lie in jail subject to
torture, and custodial deaths. Frequent
reports fo gang rapes of women by
Indians forces. Deliberate burning down of
entire local villages. A number of laws
dating back to the 70's have been
restricted-Public Safety Act 1979/Terrorist
and Disruptive Activities Act 1987/ Armed
Forces special Powers Act 1990. Its
Judicial System has become utterly
dysfunctional

11. ACTORS
 Pakistan – state government
 India – state government
 Kashmir – regional government
 UK - during partition/accession, the
UK brokered separation of India
and Pakistan (Indian Independence
Act)
 China - shared border
 Islamist groups - Muslim cause
(Afghanistan)
 UN – UN Security Council
resolutions supporting a plebiscite
to determine disposition of Kashmir
 World Bank – Indus Water Treaty
 US - war on terror
 British East India Company –
historical legacy

12. SECURITY
 Training was provided in
Afghanistan in Al-Qaeda training
camps
 - 9/11 Terrorist attacks were linked
to Taliban soldiers, which were
founded and supported by Pakistan
 - Pakistan openly admitted
supported these terrorist factions
 - Taliban forces turned on Kashmir
later on in 2001, and attacked state
parliaments in Kashmir, along with
Indian central parliament, in New
Delhi
 On the surface, a peace process
and a cease-fire order is in the
works to reduce tensions, however
conflicts between ownership rights
to Kashmir cause great security
 Pakistan's take on the issue with India regarding Kashmir:
 o Accession to Kashmir by India was illegal
 o India is in illegal possession of Kashmir
 - This continual issue allows Pakistan to legitimize is role in
aiding and funding the Pakistan military and intelligence
forces. It also allows them to fund Kashmiri terrorist that hide
out in the Kashmir Valley
 India argues that Pakistan is illegally in possession of certain
territories within Kashmir and that is the reason for India’s
Aggression
 - Kashmir is central to India’s security for several reasons:
 o Cross-Border terrorism between Jammu and Kashmir into
India, funded and enforced by Pakistan is the cause of much
of the tension
 o Heightened security concerns because both countries are
in possess of nuclear arms
 o Part of Kashmir under control of Pakistan has been
surrendered to China, making this conflict a trilateral issue.
 o Beijing launched an attack on India in 1962, disputes
between the regions and countries still exist
 o Security issues regarding natural resources, including
water, power and navigation projects and theft of such
resources or attacks on by terrorists are reason for concern