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Benford’s Law Data Quality Analysis applications Alan F Doyle, Data Management Specialist Group Data Management 4 March 2009
Contents ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Key Group facts ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: 2008 Shareholder Review
Data Management and Benford's Law  The Data Quality link ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Benford's Law  What is it? ….lay man’s guide ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Benford's Law  What is it? ….the technical stuff ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Benford’s Law First Digit of numbers % predicted by Benford’s Law 1 30.103 2 17.609 3 12.494 4 9.691 5 7.918 6 6.695 7 5.799 8 5.115 9 4.576
Benford's Law  Real world/day-to-day examples of where it should apply  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Benford's Law  To what “types” of data should it apply?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Benford's Law  When does it  NOT  (or most likely not) apply?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Linking Benford's Law and Data Quality  Benford’s Law helps to identify ….. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fraud identification  using Benford's Law  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fraud identification using Benford's Law Example: Expense Claims ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fraud identification using Benford's Law  Example: Expense Claims ,[object Object],*  Dummy data used to illustrate this example Possible Fraudulent Expense Claims 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object]
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object],Actual  <  Benford’s Actual  >  Benford’s KEY :
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object]
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object],Actual  <  Benford’s Actual  >  Benford’s KEY :
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object],Match is Spot On !!!  …good news for us !!
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Using Excel to test a real data set  using Benford's Law ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions from our analyses ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Questions
References/Bibliography ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Appendix:  Excel approach to Benford's Law (suggested procedure and Excel tips) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Data quality applications_of_benford's_law_(finalv2)

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