1. The Impacts of climateThe Impacts of climate
change on agriculture: Vulnerability,change on agriculture: Vulnerability,
impacts and adaptation with reference toimpacts and adaptation with reference to
Southeast Asian countriesSoutheast Asian countries
ChamhuriChamhuri SiwarSiwar
• Universiti
Kebangsaan
Malaysia (UKM)
ChamhuriChamhuri SiwarSiwar
csiwar@ukm.mycsiwar@ukm.my
Institute for Environment & Development (LESTARI)Institute for Environment & Development (LESTARI)
UniversitiUniversiti KebangsaanKebangsaan MalaysiaMalaysia
(National University of Malaysia)(National University of Malaysia)
PresentedPresented atat UniversitasUniversitas SyiahSyiah Kuala,Kuala, AchehAcheh, Indonesia, Indonesia
IkatetaIkateta UnsyiahUnsyiah, 07, 07 May 2011May 2011

2. Presentation Outline
• Concepts of climate change
• Global trends of climate change
• Climate change impacts
• Impacts on vulnerable and poverty
groups
• Adaptation and mitigation
• Conclusion

3. Concept of climate changeConcept of climate change

4. Concepts
• What is climate change?
– The variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates
over time, such as
* variations in sunlight intensity
* greenhouse gas emission
* higher sunlight intensity, temperature rise
* extreme temperature* extreme temperature
* unexpected rainfall, losses of ecosystem and so on…
– Caused by processes of internal and external forces to the Earth
– More recently, human activities have contributed to climate change
– there is 90-95% likelihood that changes in modern climate have
been in part caused by human actions.

5. Global trends of climate changeGlobal trends of climate change

6. Carbon dioxide emissions
-2
Global atmospheric
concentrations of
greenhouse gases (GHG)
increased markedly as a
result of human activities,
10000 5000 0
Time (before 2005)
result of human activities,
with an increase
of 70% in 1970-2004

7. Sources of CO2 emissions and otherSources of CO2 emissions and other
anthropogenic GHGsanthropogenic GHGs
Energy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy SectorEnergy Sector
• Energy Industry
• Manufacturing Industries
• Transport
• Residential Sector
• Commercial
• Agriculture
Agriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
• Crop Agriculture
• Livestock and Manure Management
Landuse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and Forestry
• Conversion of Land
• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

8. Changes in global average
surface temperature
Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmest
years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature
50 years 0.128oC
100 years 0.074oC
Period Rate / decade

9. Ranges for predicted surface warming
Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC
over the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)
year

10. Climate Change effects
Temperature projections from 1970 to 2010

11. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Source: Petit et al. (1999)

12. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2005
2040
(375 ppm)
(440 ppm)

13. Average arctic temperatures
increased at almost twice the
global average rate in the
past 100 years
- Annual average arctic sea ice
extent has shrunk by 2.7% perextent has shrunk by 2.7% per
decade

14. The frequency of heavy
precipitation events
has increased over
most land areas
- Rainfall in Mumbai
(India), 2005: 1
million people lostmillion people lost
their homes

15. The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher
intensity have increased over the past 3 decades
- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008:
100 000 estimated deaths

16. Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased
in the North Atlantic since about 1970
- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

17. Heat waves have become more frequent
over most land areas
- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths

18. Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have
declined in both hemispheres.
- The 18,000 year old Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m (17,400 ft)
up in the Andes, used to be the world's highest ski run, now
reduced to a few small pieces of ice

19. Summary of projection climate change trends
Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by 2070 over land
areas
Lower increases in temperature in maritime environments
Precipitation increases in high latitudes (temperate) but a drying
in mid- latitudes (sub-tropics) over Asia
Equatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean changeEquatorial tropical zone – uncertain but little mean change
expected
No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity could increase by
10-20%
Accelerated melting of glaciers – 65% of China’s glaciers will not
exist by 2050 with current and projected warming trends
Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c. 50cm) but
estimates don’t include significant ice melt
Source: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia

20. Climate change impactsClimate change impacts

21. Economic impact of climate change
– Decline in agricultural productivity
– Infrastructure destruction
– Decline in GDP growth
– Decline in availability and quality of water
resources
– Loss of welfare
– Poverty increase

22. “Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

23. Climate Change effects...
Climate change is occurring and is due to human activities *
* From: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B.
Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

24. Future Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateFuture Changes in climateFuture Changes in climate
Rainfall
Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes
Decreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-
arid low latitudes
Temperature
Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990
to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4)
Sea level rise
Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990
and the 2080s
Extreme events
Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will
become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy
precipitation

25. Temperature
• Agriculture
• Water
• Energy
• Transportation
Potential Impacts
Impacted Sectors
Potential sectoral impacts of change
Rainfall
Sea level rise
• Transportation
• Health
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• Disaster
management

26. Source: WDR 2010

27. Source: WDR 2010

28. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Higher maximum temperatures; more
hot days and heatwaves over nearly all
land areas (very likely)
Higher minimum temperatures; fewer
cold days frost days and cold spells over
nearly all land areas (very likely)
- Increased mortality in old people in urban
areas
- Damage to crops
- Heat stress on livestock
Projected changes during the 21st
century
Examples of impacts
more intense precipitation events over
many areas (very likely)
increased summer drying over most
mid-latitude continental interiors and
associated risk of drought (likely)
increase in tropical cyclone peak wind
intensity, mean and peak precipitation
intensities (likely)
- Extended range of pests and diseases
- Loss of some crop/fruit
- Land slides, mudslides, damage to
property and increased insurance costs
- Reduced rangeland productivity,
increased wildfires, decreased
hydropower
- Damage to various ecological and
socioeconomic systems

29. More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and
socioeconomic systems are projected

30. 2020s
Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-
latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics
even with warming of a few degrees
2050s
2080s

31. Extreme weather events and crop yields
Ecological systems have many interacting non-linear
processes and are thus subject to abrupt changes and
threshold effects arising from relatively small changes in
driving variables, such as climate.
For example:For example:
Temperature increase beyond a threshold, which varies by crop
and variety, can affect key development stages of some crops
and result in severe losses in crop yields.

32. Climate Change effects
Climate Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
Source: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia

33. Climate change impacts on agricultureClimate change impacts on agriculture

34. Impact on Global Welfare and Production, 2080(%
change)
Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)

35. Climate-change impacts on aggregate crop production in
developing and developed regions for projections of IPCC
scenario A2, without economic adjustment.
Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)
Note: H3 = HadCM3; CS = CSIRO; C2 = CGCM2; NC = NCAR-PCM.

36. Impacts on Agricultural Production and Trade in
Southeast Countries, 2080(% change)
Adapted from Zhai & Zhuang (2009)

37. Changes in rice production potential in Southeast Asia
(1990 =1.0)
AIFI (Reference scenario) AIFI (450 ppm scenario)
• Under A1FI reference scenario, rice production potential in SEA will
initially increase and, after reaching a turning point in 2050, decline
due to the changing patterns of temperature and precipitation.
•However, under climate stabilizing scenario (450ppm) the production
potential will be maintained.
Source: ADB (2009)

38. Climate-change induced yield effects by crop and management
system, % change from yield with 2000 climate to yield with 2050
climate
Adapted from Nelson,et al. (2009)

39. Macro-economic Impacts of Climate Change on Southeast
Countries, 2080 (% change)
Source: Zhai & Zhuang (2009)

40. Projected Change in Mean Surface
Air Temperature for Southeast Asia under A1FI and B1 (with
respect to baseline period of 1961—1990), ºC
Source: IPCC (2007)
- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this century
temperatures could be more than 4°C above 1980–1999 levels, ranging from 2.5–6°C
- B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global
population, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid
change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in
material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies.

41. Rice Yield Change in Viet Nam
(comparison with base year, 1980—1990), %
Source: IPCC (2007)
- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this century
temperatures could be more than 4°C above 1980–1999 levels, ranging from 2.5–6°C
- B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global
population, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid
change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in
material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies.

42. Maize Yield Change in Viet Nam (comparison with base year,
1980—1990), %
Source: IPCC (2007)
- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this century
temperatures could be more than 4°C above 1980–1999 levels, ranging from 2.5–6°C
- B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global
population, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid
change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in
material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies.

43. Potential Impact of Climate Change on East Asian’s
Agriculture
Adapted from Stern (2007)

44. Potential Impact of Climate Change on East Asian’s
Agriculture
– Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremes
that include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Niño and La Niña
events, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures.
Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions more
acute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, their
livelihoods, and the environment as a whole.
– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting
many sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of water
resources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, and
tropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, and
have contributed to a decline in the production of grains and
industrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.

45. Potential Impact of Climate Change on East
Asian’s Agriculture
– Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremes
that include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Niño and La Niña
events, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures.
Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions more
acute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, their
livelihoods, and the environment as a whole.
– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting– Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting
many sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of water
resources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, and
tropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, and
have contributed to a decline in the production of grains and
industrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.

46. Potential Impact of Climate Change on East
Asian’s Agriculture
– As projected by the IPCC (2007), Southeast Asia is likely to
experience increased exposure to extreme events, including fire risk,
typhoons and tropical storms, floods, and landslides, as well as
water-borne and vector-borne diseases.
– The heat and water stresses brought about by climate change are
likely to disrupt the ecology of mountain and highland systems in the
region.region.
– Rising sea levels will cause large-scale inundation along the
extensive coastlines and will lead to a recession of flat sandy
beaches. The ecological stability of mangroves and coral reefs is also
under threat.

47. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia
– Asia-Pacific region will experience the worst effect on
rice and wheat yields worldwide, and decreased yields
could threaten the food security of 1.6 billion people in
South Asia.
– The crop model indicates that in South Asia, average
yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels byyields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by
about 50 percent for wheat, 17 percent for rice, and
about 6 percent for maize because of climate change.
– In east Asia and the pacific, yields in 2050 for crops will
decline from 2000 levels by up to 20 percent for rice, 13
percent for soybean, 16 percent for wheat, and 4
percent for maize because of climate change.

48. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia
– With climate change, average calorie availability in Asia
in 2050 is expected to be about 15 percent lower and
cereal consumption is projected to decline by as much
as 24 percent compared to a no climate
change scenario.
– In a no-climate change scenario, the number of– In a no-climate change scenario, the number of
malnourished children in South Asia would fall from 76
to 52 million between 2000 and 2050, and from 24 to 10
million in East Asia and the Pacific. Climate change will
erase some of this progress, causing the number of
malnourished children in 2050 to rise to 59 million in
South Asia and to 14 million in East Asia and the
Pacific, increasing the total number of malnourished
children in Asia by about 11 million.

49. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia
– The Asian countries most vulnerable to climate change
are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Lao
PDR, Myanmar, and Nepal.
– Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal are
particularly vulnerable to declining crop yields due toparticularly vulnerable to declining crop yields due to
glacial melting, floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall,
among other factors.
– Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world,
accounting for about 89 percent of people affected by
disasters worldwide.

50. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia
– To counteract the effects of climate change on nutrition,
South Asia requires additional annual investments of
1.5 billion USD in rural development, and East Asia and
the Pacific require almost 1 million USD more. Over half
of these investments in both regions must be forof these investments in both regions must be for
irrigation expansion.
– More than 60 percent of the economically active
population and their dependents—2.2 billion people—
rely on agriculture for their livelihoods in developing
parts of Asia
Source: International Food Policy Research Institute ( 2009)

51. Climate impacts on global agriculture
Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to
high latitudes for local warmings of 1-3o C, then decrease for
greater warming
Crop productivity is projected to decrease for local warmings
of 1-2o C at lower latitudes, e.g. tropics, which would
increase risk of hungerincrease risk of hunger
Agricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical semi-arid zones
(lower precipitation, higher evaporation) likely to be 10% per
degree of warming
Northward shift of agricultural zones in Asia
Commercial timber productivity is projected to rise modestly
Likely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are uncertain
Source: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia

52. Impacts on global agriculture
Source: Tubiello & Fischer (2007)

53. Impacts on global agriculture
Source: Tubiello & Fischer (2007)

54. Climate related drivers on agriculture
The main four climate related drivers on agriculture are:
1. Elevated carbon dioxide
2. Rainfall and associated water resource availability
3. Temperature – both direct and indirect through3. Temperature – both direct and indirect through
evaporation
4. Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage)
These drivers are interact and affect agricultural productivity,
quality, pests and diseases.

55. Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climate
change by sub-regions in Asia
Source: IPCC 2007

56. impacts of climate change on food, fiber, forestry and
fisheries, by time increment
Source: IPCC 2007

57. Changes on cereal production under three different
GCM scenarios
. The developed countries could convert negative climate effect to positive with their
adaptation capacity. Developing countries and world total only could be mitigating.
Source: UNEP GRID 2010

58. Possible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia byPossible climatic change in Peninsular Malaysia by
20412041--2050:2050:
• Temperature rise 20C
• More extreme hydrological
conditions
– Higher maximum
rainfall; Lower
minimum rainfall.
– Higher high river flow;Source: NAHRIM (2006) – Higher high river flow;
Lower low river flow
Water balance Water sufficiency
Crops yields Food security
Plantation Economic loss
Infrastructure Repairs &
reconstruction
Potential implicationsPotential implications

59. Climate Change Impacts on Malaysia
• Increases in temperature effects:
– It affects the moisture availability through effects on
evaporation; in general evaporation increases by about 5% for
each 1oC increase in main annual temperature. This would be
significant in tropical regions where most crops are generally
constrained by water availability (NRS, 2001).
• The Agriculture and crop yield effects:
– Increased temperature reduces crop yield and areas prone to
drought can become marginal or unsuitable for the cultivation
of some crops such as rubber, oil palm and cocoa. Forests
however, are also vulnerable. As a result of sea level rise the
mangrove forests along coast line could be nullified by a loss
of between 15% and 20% (NRS, 2001).
• NRS. 2001. “National response strategies to climate change”, Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment, Malaysia.

60. Future projection of climate change on Malaysia:
selected states
Climate
Factor
Projected Change in Maximum Monthly Value
North West
Region
(West Coast,
Perak,
North East Region
(North east coast,
Terengganu,
Kelantan)
Central
Region
(Klang,
Selangor,
Southern
Region
(Johor,
SouthernPerak,
Kedah)
Selangor,
Pahang)
Southern
Peninsula)
Rainfall + 6.2 % + 32.8 % + 8.0 % + 2.9 %
Temperature +1.80 0C +1.88 0C +1.38 0C +1.74 0C
Source: NAHRIM, 2006

61. Future projection of climate change on Malaysia
Potential yield of Agriculture (rice) in Malaysia:
– The average potential yield of rice varies is about 10 tons ha-
1in the tropics and over 13 tons ha-1 in the region (Yoshida,
1981).
– The actual farm yields in Malaysia vary from 3-5 tons ha-1, (i.e.
potential yield in Malaysia per ha-1 is 7.2 tons (Singh et al
1996)).1996)).
– The development rates of rice crop were accelerated in
response to an increase in CO2 concentration from 160 ppm
(parts per million) to 900 ppm.
Unexpected temperature effects in Malaysia:
– It is evident that the average response to an increase of
potential yields of about 10kg/ha/ppm CO2 or about 15kg/ha/
ppm CO2. However the negative effects occur in unexpected
high (>35oC) or low temperature (Penning de Vries, 1993).

62. Future projection of climate change on Malaysia
Unexpected temperature effects in Malaysia:
– The rice yield is negatively correlated with high (>35oC)
temperature during the reproductive phase (NRS, 2001).
– The average temperature in rice-growing areas in Malaysia is
about 26oC. An examination of the current climate change
scenario under different future climate change indicates that
about 26oC. An examination of the current climate change
scenario under different future climate change indicates that
temperature above 26oC declines grain mass of 4.4 % per 1oC
rise (Tashiro and Wardlaw, 1989) and grain yield declines as
much as 9.6 to 10% (Baker and Allen, 1993).
– Singh et al. (1996) found on rice production in Malaysia that a
decline of rice yield between 4.6 to 6.1% per 1oC under the
present CO2 level.

63. Vulnerability to climate changeVulnerability to climate change

64. Who is vulnerable to climate change
Vulnerability is a function of three key factors:
– Exposure to climate change risks;
– Sensitivity to changes in climate conditions; and
– Adaptive capacity to cope with potential climate risks or actual
hazardshazards
Vulnerability applies to countries, regions, economic sectors,
individual etc.
Vulnerability indicates an exposure to potential risks without
having adequate capacity to cope with or adapt to changes in
the environment

65. Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of
people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events,
especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas.
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with
a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack
of adaptive capacity
Vulnerability to climate change impacts
projected
present

66. Expected impacts on poor regions
People exposed to increased water stress by 2020:
120 millions to 1.2 billion in Asia
75 to 250 millions in Africa
12 to 81 millions in Latin America
Possible yield reduction in agriculture:
50% by 2020 in some African countries
30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia
30% by 2080 in Latin America
Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa

67. Developing countries are the most vulnerable
to climate change
• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought
prone and a large share of the economy is in climate
sensitive sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial,
institutional and technological capacity and access to
knowledgeknowledge
• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately
upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons
within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status
and access to adequate food, clean water and other
resources.
• Net market sector effects are expected to be negative
in most developing countries

68. Vulnerability of key sectors to the impacts of climate
change by sub-regions in Asia
Source: IPCC 2007

69. Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI),Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI),
Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004
Source: Ninth Malaysia Plan, 2006

70. Most Vulnerable States in Malaysia: HardcoreMost Vulnerable States in Malaysia: Hardcore
Poverty and Climate ChangePoverty and Climate Change
States
Household
Size
Percentage
of Hardcore
Poverty
Incidence
Projected
Temperature
Change
Projected
Rainfall
Change
Terengganu 5.0 4.4 +1.88 0C
+ 32.8 %
Terengganu 5.0 4.4 +1.88 C
Perlis 4.2 1.7 +1.80 0C
+ 6.2 %
Kelantan 5.2 1.3
+1.88 0C
+ 32.8 %
Kedah 4.6 1.3
+1.80 0C + 6.2 %
Most Vulnerable peoples are the poor and hardcore poor
Source: NAHRIM, 2006; Ninth Malaysia Plan, 2006

71. Key vulnerabilities in Asia-Pacific
Agriculture and food supply
Decrease in crop yields up to 30% in Central &
South Asia by 2050
Water management
Decrease of freshwater availability affecting more
than a billion people by 2050than a billion people by 2050
Human health
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal
disease and exacerbation of abundance / toxicity of
cholera in South Asia
Coastal areas and small islands
Sea-level rise, coastal erosion and inundation will
compromise the socio-economic well-being of islands
and heavily-populated megadeltas

72. Adaptation and mitigationAdaptation and mitigation

73. Adaptation in the agricultural sector
• What is Adaptation?
– The adaptation involves developing ways to protect people and
places by reducing their vulnerability to climate pattern.
– Agricultural adaptation options could be grouped as:
(a) technological developments;(a) technological developments;
(b) government programs;
(c) farm production practice; and
(d) farm financial management.

74. Adaptation in the agricultural sector
• (a) Technological developments
– Technological adaptations could be developed through research
programme undertaken. These includes:
1. Resource management innovations (e.g. water management
innovation, irrigation, farm level resource mgt- to address risk
of moisture deficiency)
innovation, irrigation, farm level resource mgt- to address risk
of moisture deficiency)
2. Crop development( crop varieties tolerant to changing climatic
conditions)
3. Weather and climate information systems (e.g. early warning
system, daily and seasonal weather forecasts)

75. Adaptation in the agricultural sector
• (b) Government programs
– Government programs are institutional responses to the economic
risks associated with climate change and have the potential to
influence farm-level risk management strategies. These includes:
1.Agricultural subsidy and support programs (modify subsidy and1.Agricultural subsidy and support programs (modify subsidy and
insurance programs wrt to climate related loss of crop yield)
2.Resource management programs( water res use & mgt
strategies wrt changing climatic conditions)

76. Adaptation in the agricultural sector
• (c) Farm production practice
– Farm production practices (i.e. diversify crop types and varieties,
land use pattern, irrigation etc.) involve changes in farm operational
practices, which may be stimulated or informed by government
programs or industry initiatives. These includes:
1. Farm production (diversify crop type & varieties to suit climatic
changes)changes)
2. Land Use (change location of production to address risks wrt
climate change)
3. Irrigation (to address moisture deficiency wrt climate change)
4. Timing of operations (change to address changing
duration/season due to climate change)

77. Adaptation in the agricultural sector
• (d) Farm financial management
– Farm financial adaptations involve decisions with respect to crop
insurance, crop shares and futures, income stabilization programs,
household income( invest in crop shares & futures to reduce risks
of climate change income loss)
– Farm financial adaptation options are farm-level responses using– Farm financial adaptation options are farm-level responses using
farm income strategies such as both private and government
supported to reduce the risk of climate-related income loss which
might support and incentive programs greatly influence farm
financial management decisions (e.g. participate in income
stabilization prog. to reduce risk of income loss due to climatic
conditions and variability)

78. Adaptation and mitigation strategies
• Collection and conservation of germplasm
• Breeding and development of climate ready varieties
– Wide adaptation
– Multiple resistance to diseases
• Promotion of alternative crops• Promotion of alternative crops
• Altering timing of crops
• Integrated crop pests management
• Integration of indigenous knowledge and modern
science

79. • Conservation of traditional livestock breeds
• Weather index crop insurance schemes
– provide a safety net to mitigate risk for subsistence
farmers
– provides compensation to smallholder farmers
Adaptation and mitigation strategies
– provides compensation to smallholder farmers
climate extremes
• Availability of reliable climate information
• Appropriate policies
• Financial resources
• Awareness creation and capacity building

80. Adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector
• Availability of reliable climate information
– Integration of agricultural models with seasonal
climate prediction models
– Translate seasonal climate forecasts into useful
information
• Appropriate policies• Appropriate policies
• Financial resources
• Awareness creation and capacity building

81. Mitigation
• What is Mitigation?
– Mitigation involves attempts or mechanisms to slow the process of
global climate change by lowering the level of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere and such mechanisms that absorb carbon dioxide
from the air and store it in the soil or in their trunks and roots.
– Mitigation, through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, will
primarily be addressed through greater resource efficiencyprimarily be addressed through greater resource efficiency
including:
1. Improving energy efficiency performance of new and existing
buildings and influencing behavior of occupants
2. Reducing the need to travel and ensuring good accessibility to public
and other sustainable modes of transport
3. Promoting land use that acts as carbon sinks
4. Encouraging development and use of renewable energy etc…

82. Stabilisation levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Range of GDP
reduction
(%)
Reduction of
average annual GDP
growth rates
(percentage pts)
445 - 535 < 3 < 0.12
Costs of mitigation in 2030
Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain to 3%
decrease of GDP in 2030
535 - 590 0.2 – 2.5 < 0.1
590 - 710 -0.6 – 1.2 < 0.06

83. • What did we observe from climate change impacts from
Asia and Asia Pacific Region, particularly for Malaysia?
– Temperature rise and its impacts in the nearest future.
– Initial indication and the effects of climate change on agriculture.
– Mitigation and Adaptation options for climate change for agriculture– Mitigation and Adaptation options for climate change for agriculture
sector and poverty groups.
– Policy challenges in the agriculture on the way towards adequate
and smooth adaptation.
– Need for partnership between govt. & private sector and NGOs for
success. It must be clearly understood that government alone
cannot carry out the tasks identified in this document. Success will
only be achieved through the total involvement of the private and
nongovernmental sectors.

84. Stabilization scenarios
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean
temp.
increase
(ºC)
Year CO2
needs to peak
Change in global
CO2 emissions in
2050
(% of 2000
emissions)emissions)
445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 – 2015 -85 to -50
490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 – 2020 -60 to -30
535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 – 2030 -30 to +5
590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 – 2060 +10 to +60

85. Regulations and standards
Appropriate energy infrastructure investments
Research, development and demonstration
Key mitigation instruments, policies & practices
Regulations and standards
Taxes and charges
Carbon pricing

86. Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution
- Benefits range from 30-50% of estimated mitigation
costs up to a factor of 3 to 4
More employment
- Solar PV and wind-energy generate 5.7 person-years
Main co-benefits of mitigation
- Solar PV and wind-energy generate 5.7 person-years
of employment per 1 million US$ investment (over
ten years); while coal industry generates only 4
Increased energy security
Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits that may offset
a substantial fraction of mitigation costs

87. Conclusion

88. Some implications for global food
security
Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are
By the end of the century, hundred of millions of
people could be forced from their native land by rising
sea levels, extreme events, floods and famines
Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are
pushing poverty further in poor countries
Adaptation is necessary to cope with the impacts of
already changing climate
Agricultural adaptation to climate change otherwise
productivity is projected to decline pushing more people
to food insecurity

89. Role and limits of adaptation
Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from
the warming which is already unavoidable due to past
emissions
Climate change requires forward-looking investmentClimate change requires forward-looking investment
and planning responses that go beyond short-term
responses to current climate variability
But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected
effects of climate change

90. “Delayed emission reductions significantly
constrain the opportunities to achieve lower
stabilization levels and increase the risk of more
severe climate change impacts”
The need for urgent mitigation
severe climate change impacts”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

91. Key climate change events

92. UNFCCC (1992)
“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal
instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve,
in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention,
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frameclimate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame
sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to
ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic
development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

93. Bali Roadmap (2007)
“Recognizing that deep cuts in global emissions will be
required the Convention launched a comprehensive
process to enable the full, effective and sustained
implementation of the Convention, now, up to andimplementation of the Convention, now, up to and
beyond 2012, by addressing policy approaches and
positive incentives […].”

94. Copenhagen Accord (2009)
Commitment to keep the rise in average temperature
below 2°C
Call for international measurement, reporting and
verification emissions cuts, mitigation actions and financeverification emissions cuts, mitigation actions and finance
$30bn fund for 2010-2012; $100bn by 2020
But no binding agreement and targets for
emission reductions

95. CoP 16 to UNFCCC in Cancun, Mexico (2010)
Hope to make legally binding agreement to keep the rise
in average temperature below 2°C by all parties to the
UNFCCC
Further binding agreement and targets for emissionFurther binding agreement and targets for emission
reductions by the developed world under Kyoto protocol
for the period of beyond 2012

96. Key elements for an ambitious binding
agreement
Ensuring global GHG emissions peak by 2015 and
concentrations fall to 350 ppm
Emission-reduction targets of at least 40% below 1990
levels by 2020 for developed countrieslevels by 2020 for developed countries
New global climate finance mechanism
Stronger compliance and enforcement mechanisms