African Science Academies Statement on Climate Change

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We, the Science Academies in Africa , issue this statement to draw attention to the
special features of Africa in relation to climate change, the great uncertainties that exist
in understanding how climate change impacts on Africa's climatic, natural and human
systems, and the contributions that the scientific community can make in addressing the
challenge and exploiting opportunities arising from climate change. We focus especially
on impacts on the livelihoods of communities, as they relate to agriculture, food security
and health, as well as on developing the capacity for mitigating these impacts and the
increasing frequency and intensity of climate change-related disasters in A/rica.

BACKGROUND AND URGENCY

The rea lization t hat cl imat e change will accumu lation of greenhouse gases,
THE NIGDw-.1 ACADEH,Y Of SCtfNCf
impact more severely on Africa, t han on notably carbon dioxide, methane,
most other regions of the world, compels nitrous oxide, human-made CFCs
urgent action t o understand the (chlorofluorocarbons) and a few other
phenomenon better in relation to the gases, largely emitted into the
Ghana Academy of Atts and Soences
pecul iarities of the Africa region. Such atmosphere by human activity. Africa's
understanding is a prerequis ite to contribution to these anthropogenic
formulating effective responses to reduce em issions that exacerbate global
the exposure and the vulnerability of the warming and climate change hi·storically
continent to climate change. Science-based is minor (about 3% of total
information is critical in generating such anthropogenic emissions) and, because
understanding and formulating effective of the continuing low level of industrial
responses. A hallmark of science-based activity on the continent as compared
information is that it is founded more on with other regions, will continue to be
critically analysed evidence t han on minor far into the future. It is only when
experience. There is concern that the globa l emission is disaggregated by
African continent has been short in specific sources of em ission, that
contr i buting such science-based Africa's emission from land use change

8 '
.
.
. information to the global analysis, debate,
and effort to combat climate change. As a
consequence, Africa has not effectively
goes up to 20% of world emission f rom
this source, exceeding that of other
regions. In sharp contrast to the low
participated in setting the agenda in the level of contribution to causing the
global debate, or benefitted adequately problem, Africa will be
from avai lable global opportun it ies, for disproport i onately and severely
addressing climate change. affected by climate change because it
has the least capacity, in terms of
Despite a few dissenting voices, there is a adequate information, awareness,
strong and growing scientific consensus that preparedness, technology, financial
the current cl imate change stems from resources and freedom from other
global warming, caused by the stresses, to adapt to the adverse effects

of climate change, putting at great risk the systems - the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone,
development efforts of the continent towards the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the West
combating poverty and meeting aspirations such African Monsoon. Rainfall in the Sahel is also
as the Millennium Development Goals. affected by changes in Sea Surface Temperatures.
But how the global drivers interact and how they
SPECIAL FEATURES OF AFRICA IN THE CONTEXT will be affected by climate change are not well
OF CLIMATE CHANGE understood, beyond the certainty that their
When dealing with climate change, some features
outcomes will work to increase 'the incidence and
separate Africa from other regions. We focus here
severity of the droughts, floods and other
on features that have relevance for scientific extreme weather events they produce'2 • The IPCC
intervention. First is the large (30.2 million km 2 }
further identified shortcomings of models applied
land mass, stretching approximately from
to understand the effects of climate change on the
Latitude 37° North to Latitude 35°South. The land
African climates to include:
mass of Africa is greater than the land masses of
the USA, UK, China, Spain, Germany, France, Italy, • non- inclusion of vegetation and aerosol
Eastern Europe, India and Japan combined 1 , yet feedbacks;
Africa contributes only three percent of the • not taking account of land surface
human emissions that accelerate global warming. changes;
• poor understanding of the limitations of
Geographic Variability of African Climates empirical downscaling models; and
Africa's land mass encompasses sub-tropical and • insufficient information for assessing
tropical climatic regions covering a wide variety of possible changes in the spatial distribution
climates that range from the humid tropics to the and frequencies of tropical cyclones
hyper-arid Sahara, and include winter rainfall affecting Africa.
regions at the northern and southern extremes.
The existence of a variety of climates complicates Planning to respond effectively to climate change
the understanding of the climatic effects of requires that present and future climate
climate change in Africa, especially as the various conditions be described as accurately as possible.
climates are regulated by different global drivers. Global Climate Models do so reasonably well for
While the whole of Africa is known to be warming climate conditions at the global scale, but are too
in this century at a rate faster than the global coarse for application at regional or local levels.
average, the warming is not uniform in all parts of Therefore, global models must be made
the continent. The Inter-Governmental Panel on applicable, or "downscaled," to describe
Climate Change {IPCC} observes that the drier projections of climate conditions at local or
sub-tropical regions will be warming faster than regional scales. When local data are
the humid tropics. Effects on rainfall will also be incorporated in the downscaling process,
varied, so that some parts of the continent will uncertainties can be greatly minimized. Local data
become drier while others become wetter. Most are also needed to verify or validate downscaled
important for the role that science is expected to projections.
play is the existence of great uncertainties about
In the shortcomings associated with models
how climate change will affect the climates of
applied for understanding climate change in
Africa, largely because of lack of adequate
Africa, as identified by the IPCC, the importance
information.
of vegetation feedback and land surface changes
Global Drivers of African Climates is accentuated by the large land mass of the
The climates of Africa are driven by three global continent, over which the predominant

economic activity is agriculture, which, though criteria, such as good forest governance and
critically important for meeting food security effective land use policies, laid down for
needs and contributing to climate change participating in the two mechanisms. African
mitigation, constantly interferes with vegetation scientists are challenged to raise persuasive
and land cover. Aerosols are also a significant scientific arguments, based on the great diversity
component of the African atmosphere given at and complexity of land use systems on the
least the dust storms that prevail over the Sahara continent, to modify these criteria to permit
desert, while the insufficiency of information for greater participation of Africa in these and other
understanding downscaling limitations and the UNFCCCfinancial instruments.
behaviour of tropical cyclones is a matter that can
be addressed by intensifying local observations. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
Next to land mass as a special feature is the heavy
It is emphasized that understanding the effects of
dependence of the African economy on climate.
climate change on the climates across Africa is
Agriculture is the dominant economic activity
fundamental for effective planning and design of
employing more than 60% of the people and
responses to those effects.
accounting for up to 50% of the GDP in some
Advantage from large land mass countries. 2 Most of the agriculture, both crop and
The significance of Africa's large land mass spills livestock, is strongly weather- and climate-
over to the consideration of Africa's potential role dependent and crop farming is dominated by
in combating climate change through small-scale subsistence farmers, augmenting
afforestation and reforestation (A/R), and their livelihoods by drawing from their natural
through agriculture. Forests serve as sinks and resource base. Both agriculture and the natural
reservoirs for the dominant greenhouse gas, resource base are highly susceptible to changes in
carbon dioxide. Hence, together with agriculture, temperature, precipitation, sea level rise and the
creating forests through afforestation and incidence of extreme weather events that are
reforestation is an activity supported by the Clean associated with climate change. Artisanal
Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol fisheries and aquaculture are also susceptible to
for mitigation of climate change. The abundant rising water temperatures, sea level rise and
land mass and large areas of past deforestation, storm surges, while C02 fertilization from rising
coupled with relatively cheap labour, low land carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere may
rents, and faster growth rate of trees that partly offset adverse effects of other factors on
translates to shorter rotation time for achieving plant production.
maximum accumulation of carbon, give Africa a
distinct advantage over other key actors in climate Climate change effects on agriculture may be
change mitigation through A/R under the Clean direct or indirect. Direct effects include expected
Development Mechanism. 3 The same factors depression of crop yield and agricultural
coupled with the strong traditional and cultural productivity by increasing temperature, in the
linkages of people with trees and forests in Africa, African tropics and sub-tropics, where, more than
also give the continent a distinct advantage in in other regions, crops have reached their
embracing the emerging mechanism of Reducing maximum tolerance limits2 ' 4 • Crop yields decline
Emission from Deforestation and forest for any increase in temperature beyond these
Degradation in developing countries (REDD). But limits. Temperature changes also influence
it is stressed that realizing the advantage livestock productivity directly through effects on
conferred by the abundant land mass and the balance between body heat production and
supporting factors will depend on Africa meeting heat dissipation, while crop and animal damage

by extreme weather events such as flooding can systems in Africa to combat the effects of climate
also directly depress agricultural production. By change. Science can positively intervene by
interfering with the tim ing of farmers' operations, informing the development of resilient crop
climate change-induced unreliability of the varieties and animal breeds, improving the
weather also directly affects agricultural management of the resources that serve as
production. Many effects of climate change on necessary inputs in agriculture and helping to
agriculture are indirect and are made manifest install sustainable management regimes for
through (a) limitations on water availability natural ecosystems. Developing drought-adapted
caused by protracted reduction in rainfall, crops and animals, flood-tolerant crops, as well as
droughts and temperature-induced high salt-tolerant varieties in the coastal regions;
evapotranspiration; (b) temperature-induced designing short-term weather forecasting
proliferation of crop and livestock pests, and facilities that can be readily operated by farmers,
increase in post-harvest losses in conditions of and refining such forecasts; devising better
unrefrigerated storage; (c) deficits in soil moisture methods of water management and soil nutrient
that translate to diminished soil nutrient supply, conservation; developing safer post-harvest
which in turn affect plant production, including products storage technologies; researching to
production of feed and fodder for livestock, and expand the crop base for agriculture; enhancing
(d) shortage of farm labour due to depressing efforts at supplementing agricultural production
effects of climate change on human health. and exploitation from the wild with domesticated
production, and developing sustainable methods
The high dependence of the rural poor on natural of natural resources utilization, emerge as some
resources for livelihood is a special feature to note of the critical ways by which science can intervene
in considering effects of climate change in Africa. to counter the threat of climate change to food
The natural ecosystems (mainly forests, security in Africa. African scientists also recognize
woodlands and the Sahel) relied on for support, the importance of working to improve the
especially when climate change depresses integrated agro-production systems of the
agriculture, are themselves threatened by over- predominantly subsistence farmers on the
exploitation and now also by climate change. continent, which combine conservation
Deterioration in these natural systems is reflected agriculture, organic farming, agro-forestry and
in loss of biodiversity and degradation of traditional knowledge, to yield both adaptation
catchment areas that are crucial for water supply and mitigation benefits.
to farmlands, rivers and humans. Africa wil l face
increasing water scarcity and stress with a CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH
subsequent potential increase of water conflicts The stability of the health sector in Africa against
as almost all of the SO river basins in Africa are climate change is already seriously compromised
transboundarl Degraded natural systems by a heavy burden of disease and disability. The
further diminish the capacity of rural people to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change cites
cope with climate change. Africa in commenting on the importance of the
health of a population as an element of adaptive
By depressing agricultural productivity and capacity. The Panel observes that the future of the
eroding the natural resource base for augmenting HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa, for example, will
agriculture, climate change has the potential to determine how well African populations cope
worsen the supply side of the food security with challenges like the spread of climate-related
equation. Urgent action is needed to build the vector and water-borne infections, food
resilience of the agricultural and natural resource shortages and increased frequency (and intensity)

of storms, floods and droughts. The key concerns the world, with devastating outcomes in Africa.
in the health sector are not only with the diseases, Cases of land or mud- slides, wild fires or pest
whose prevalence and virulence may be epidemics have also been reported. The
affected/exacerbated by climate change, but also consequences of these events include extensive
with the health systems that could be readily destruction of settlements with their
overwhelmed by the health-care demands of infrastructure, extensive damage of farmlands,
populations impacted by climate change. We deal fisheries and other means of livelihood, massive
here with effects on diseases alone. For vector- displacements and movements of people, food
and water-borne diseases, emphasis is on the shortages, disease epidemics and the breakdown
effect of climate change on their transmission in social order sometimes leading to combative
dynamics. Studies already show that changes in conflicts. Displacement and movement of people
temperature and precipitation could alter the may occur internally within countries, creating
geographical distribution of malaria, with the category of Internally Displaced Refugees
previously unsuitable areas of dense human {IDRs) or across borders among the 50 countries
populations becoming suitable for transmission. of the continental land mass of Africa in various
Scenario studies also project altitudinal shifts in patterns of migration. These extreme climate-
malaria distribution in east African highlands by related events create challenges for disaster risk
2050, while a recent simulation study in Nigeria 6 reduction and management that need to be
found the risk of malaria epidemic to be linked studied to understand how climatic extremes,
with projected high relative humidity and rainfall, human factors and the environment interact to
which support an increase in breeding sites. The influence disaster outcomes. Provision of the
point is readily made that by expanding scientific bases for preparing against, and
conditions that are conducive to the existence of minimizing, the risk of these disasters is the
vectors or by leading to an increase in breeding primary challenge to Science.
sites, climate change may enhance disease risk.
The exact nature of the impact of climate change Actions required of Science include contributions
on malaria and other diseases, however, remains to the development of risk assessments and
to be firmly established by detailed concurrent mapping for various anticipated climate-related
historical studies of climate and each disease, extreme events. The refinement of modeling
taking account of the influence of interaction with techniques, taking account also of natural systems
other factors like immunity, drug resistance, and traditional knowledge, in developing early
malnutrition, poverty and even civil strife and war. warning systems contributes to strengthen risk
The IPCC makes the point that many challenges reduction. Science is also expected to intervene in
remain in Africa for climatic- and health-impact developing effective and efficient disaster
and adaptation research. management systems. Ultimately, resolution of
the uncertainties in the science of climate
EXTREME CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS extreme - human factor - environment
The frequent prolonged droughts and famines interaction, is the key to developing the adaptive
that have ravaged the Sahel and other parts of capacity for meeting the challenges of climate-
Africa episodically since the 1970s are extreme related extreme events on the continent. Detailed
climate-related events that cannot be ignored in observations, assessments and models using
discussing the impacts of climate change on the climate as the driving factor are needed in this
continent. Flooding from excessive rainfall, sea regard.
level rise and storm surges are climate -related
extreme events currently ravaging many parts of ROLES OF AFRICAN SCIENCE ACADEMIES

Science is well suited to address Africa's urgent models to local levels. The resulting increases in
developmental needs, including challenges local data, measurements, and observations
presented by climate change. Global effort to could be used in downscaling processes and help
combat climate change is based on the United reduce the uncertainties about the effect of
Nations Framework Convention on Climate climate change on African climates, and facilitate
Change (UNFCCC), which primarily aims to planning of interventions to moderate the
stabilize 'greenhouse gas concentrations in the impacts of climate change.
atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the Expanded observation of local events correlated
climate system'. The current target, pursued by with monitoring of climatic elements can clear
various local and global mitigation efforts, is to uncertainties and improve the understanding of
prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above the impact of climate change on health,
pre-industrial levels. But the greenhouse gases agriculture and food security. It will also serve to
already emitted into the atmosphere expose the improve understanding of the interaction of
world to global warming with the potential to climatic-extremes, human factors and the
cause the climate change impacts now being environment in explaining the nature of climate-
observed. Given the inertia in the climate system, related disasters. Effective reporting of these
benefits of successful emission reduction efforts observations will serve to elevate the African
are not likely to be realized for a long time. voice internationally in climate change debates
Meanwhile, current climate change impacts, and negotiations, and contribute to improving
which are more immediately apparent in Africa African participation in setting the agenda and in
than they are in most other parts of the world the utilization of opportunities for addressing
where they are delayed and are not yet certain 2, climate change.
continue to impede development in Africa. Africa
Individual scientists already play critical roles in
will gain from its scientists working to improve on
assisting their countries in meeting obligations as
activities that yield both mitigation and
parties to the UNFCCC. They are prominent in
adaptation benefits, such as the integrated agro-
providing the information, especially the
production systems that dominate land use on the
greenhouse gas inventories, required in returning
continent. At the same time, there is need to
national communications to the Convention. The
address urgently climate change impacts that
scientific communities, through the Science
now threaten development on the continent,
Academies, should be prominent in helping
beginning with elevating the baseline
countries formulate their climate change
understanding of what climate change means
response strategies or plans, utilizing evidence-
today and will mean to Africa in the future.
based information, developed from extensive
Filling the gaps in knowledge about the effects of observations and studies of the situation and the
climate change on the African climate system, so technical aspects of adaptation options in each
that future scenarios can be effectively modeled, country. In both the health and the agriculture
is the first requirement for sound planning of sectors, the Science Academies are challenged to
adaptation measures. Extensive, systematic lead in the development of practices that
observation and monitoring of climatic events, moderate the adverse effects of climate change,
over a much greater density of hydro- take advantage of beneficial opportunities, and
meteorological observation stations is needed to help to build the adaptive capacities and
build up the mass of local observations needed to resilience of the people.
overcome the problems of downscaling global
For addressing disasters caused by climate-

related extreme events, the Science Academies the Africa Union is crucial for deepening and
are challenged to play a leading role not only in sustaining the engagement of the Science
convincing their countries but also in working Academies on climate change research.
with their national or local governments to
develop tools and approaches to better KEY MESSAGES
• Although Africa contributes marginally to
understand and reduce disaster risks, or for
elevating resilience to disasters caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that
extreme weather events related to climate accelerate global warming and climate
change and their attendant conditions. Across change, Africa will be more severely affected
Africa, increases in the intensity or frequency of by climate change than most other regions of
floods, mud- or land-slides, drought, ocean surge the world, because of her low adaptive
capacity, engendered by inadequate
along the coastlines, and pest and disease
information, low level of awareness and
epidemics are expected. The Academies should
preparedness, inadequate technology,
also work to improve and make more effective
financial constraints and the burden of other
local early-warning systems and effective ways of
communicating early warnings to reduce the risk, developmental stresses especially
losses, and costs of disasters on all African widespread poverty.
communities, especially those that are
• Africa's contribution of scientific
considered to be vulnerable. Disaster Risk
information for understanding climate change
Reduction work should be accompanied with
has been meagre. In consequence, Africa has
intervention to improve Disaster Risk
not effectively participated in setting the
Management practices.
agenda in the global debate, or benefitted
An effective platform for pursuing the roles adequately from available global
outlined above is the emerging Future Earth opportunities, for addressing climate change.
initiative of the International Council of Science
• The large land mass of Africa, which
(ICSU), that builds on the success of existing
complicates the understanding of how climate
programmes such as the International
change affects the climates of Africa, the
Geosphere-Biosphere Programme ( IGBP).
heavy dependence of the African economy,
African Science Academies should be closely
led by agriculture, on weather and climate,
linked with this, and other similar programmes,
and the heavy burden of disease and
for the study of global environmental change, of
disability, which seriously compromise the
which climate change is part. Linkage through
stability of the health sector against climate
ICSU programmes will enable the academies to
change, separate Africa from other regions
gain from networking and exchange of
when dealing with climate change.
information and resources among themselves.
Through such a platform, national science • Expanded observation of local events
academies should maintain a continuing correlated with monitoring of climatic
engagement with their governments for providing elements can clear uncertainties and improve
quality technical advice to decision-makers on the understanding of the impact of climate
climate change. African Science Academies change on health, agriculture and food
should also open up to greater collaboration with security. It can also serve to improve
social scientists in order to deal effectively with understanding of the interaction of climatic-
the multidisciplinary challenges presented by extremes, human factors and the
climate change Support from governments and environment in explaining the nature of

climate-related disasters. each country. In both the health and the
• The greenhouse gases already emitted agriculture sectors, the Science Academies
into the atmosphere expose the world to are challenged to lead in the development of
global warming with th e potential to cause practices that moderate the adverse effects of
the climate change impacts now being climate change, take advantage of beneficial
observed. Given the inertia in the climate opportunities, and help to build the adaptive
system, benefits of successful emission capacities and resilience of the people.
reduction efforts are unlikely to be realized for
a long time. Meanwhile, current climate • The scientific community in Africa, led by
change impacts impede development in the Science Academies should intensify
Africa. While working to improve activities detailed observations, assessments and
that offer both mitigation and adaptation modeling, using climate as the driving factor
benefits, there is need to increase baseline to resolve the uncertainties in the science of
understanding of current and future climate extreme- human factor- environment
climate change in Africa, so that climate interactions, ultimately helping to develop the
change impacts now threatening adaptive capacity ofthe continent for meeting
development on the continent can be the challenges of cl imate-related extreme
urgently mitigated. events.

• Science Academies in Africa are • Governments in Africa and the Africa
challenged to lead in helping their countries Union should provide and increase their
formulate their climate change response support for scientific research on climate
strategies or plans, utilizing evidence-based change, and foster a continuing engagement
information, developed from extensive with national Science Academies for providing
observations and studies of the situation and technical advice on climate change.
the technical aspects of adaptation options in

REFERENCES
l.(http://static02.mediaite.com/geekosystem/uploads/2010/10/true-size-of-africa.jpg)

2. Paul Collier, Gordon Conway and Tony Venable. 2008. Climate Change and Africa. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 24, 337 - 353.

3 . Sathaye, J.A., Makundi, W.R.,Dale, l., Chan, P and Andrasko, K. 2006. A Dynamic Partial-equilibrium Model for Estimating Global
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Forestry GHG Potential Costs and Benefits. In: The Energy Journal, Special Issue, pp. 94-125.

4. Opere, A., Olago, D., Chidumayo, E. and Osman-Eiasha, B. 2011. Climate Change Processes and Impacts. In: Chidumayo, E., Okali, D.,
Kowero, G. and Larwanou, M. (Editors). Climate Change and African Forest and Wildlife Resources. African Forest Forum, Nairobi, Kenya.

5. Ashton PJ., 2002. Avoiding Conflicts over Africa's Water Resources. Ambia 31(3): pp. 236 242.

6. Abiodun, B.J., Salami A.T. and Tadross M. 2011. Climate Change Scenarios for Nigeria: Understanding Biophysical Impacts for
Adaptation Strategies. Climate Systems Analysis Group, Cape Town, for Building Nigeria's Response to Climate Change Project. I bad an,
Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team (NEST).

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Cameroon Academy of Sciences, Ethiopian Academy of Sciences, Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences, Kenya National Academy of
Sciences, Mauritius Academy of Science and Technology, Hassan II Academy of Science and Technology, Academia de Ciencias de
Mocambique, The Nigerian Academy of Science, Academie Nationale des Sciences et Techniques du Senegal, Academy of Science of South
Africa, Sudanese National Academy of Sciences, The Tanzania Academy of Sciences, Uganda National Academy of Sciences, Zambia
Academy of Sciences, Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences

African Science Academies Statement on Climate Change

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