1. Future
Scenario Planning
Dr. Nita Rollins
Futurist, Resource Interactive
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

2. Brussels
Futuring & Thought Leadership
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

3. Wednesday, May 4, 2011

4. CHALLENGE:
TO ENVISION FOUR
FUTURE (2016)
SCENARIOS OF OHIO’S
ECONOMIC GROWTH
AS AN
INNOVATION HUB
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

5. Wednesday, May 4, 2011

6. WHAT WAS THE
MOST IMPACTFUL
INNOVATION,
ARGUABLY, OF THE
LAST FORTY YEARS?
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

7. Key Innovations Since 1970
INTERNET 1970-1978
CT SCAN 1971
MRI 1974
ENDORPHINS 1975
PERSONAL COMPUTER 1976
ONCOGENES 1976
RNA SPLICING 1977
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

8. ARCHAEA 1977
GLOBAL WARMING 1970-1980
ASTEROID EXTINCTION 1980
DNA FORENSICS 1984
UNIVERSE ACCELERATING 1988
WORLD WIDE WEB 1989-1992
GAMMA RAY BURSTS 1997
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

9. HOW ABOUT
FINANCIAL ENGINEERING
INNOVATIONS?
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

10. COLLATERALIZED DEBT
OBLIGATIONS 1987
CREDIT DEFAULT
SWAPS 1995
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

11. HOUSING MARKET GROWTH
CONTINUED
$ FINANCIAL
REGULATION-- DEREGULATION--
CONCENTRATED DISTRIBUTED
RISK RISK
HOUSING MARKET STAGNATION
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

12. Wednesday, May 4, 2011

13. SCENARIO PLANNING BRIEF TIMELINE
1950-60s Herman Kahn, Rand
Text
Unconsumption Corp analyst influenced by
Hollywood storytelling
1971 Pierre Wack, Dutch Royal/
Shell Head of Planning, France,
developed oil supply shock
scenario
1980s civic &
SXSW policy orgs,
From:
business, military, government
Dr. Nita Rollins, Futurist
Resource Interactive’s RI:Lab
use technique for causality
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

14. FUTURE SCENARIO PLANNING
USING A MATRIX
1.Plot two axes representing forces/drivers that are
both highly uncertain and highly impactful
2.Create four scenarios both provocative and
plausible
3.Tell a story about each incorporating both the
outcomes of these “critical uncertainties” and a
few relevant “predetermined elements”, e.g.,
aging US/Japan/Western European populations
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

15. “ANALTYIC ABSTRACT THINKING IS IDEAL FOR REPORTING
THE REGULAR, THE EXPECTED, THE NORMAL, THE
ORDINARY...
BY CONTRAST, NARRATIVE THINKING...IS IDEALLY SUITED
TO DISCUSSING DISRUPTIONS FROM THE ORDINARY, THE
UNEXPECTED, THE CONFLICTS, THE DEVIATIONS, THE
SURPRISES, THE UNUSUAL.
SCENARIOS SEARCH FOR AN “AHA EFFECT” THAT OCCURS
WHEN MANAGERS SEE A NEW THREAT OR POSSIBILITY, OR
A NEW STRATEGY--AN INSIGHT THAT CAN BE LOST AMID A
THOUSAND SPREADSHEETS.”
ADAM GORDON, FUTURE SAVVY: IDENTIFYING TRENDS TO MAKE BETTER
DECISIONS, MANAGE UNCERTAINTY, AND PROFIT FROM CHANGE
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

16. TWO AXES OF
UNCERTAINTY
SOCIAL
TECHNOLOGICAL
ECONOMIC
ENVIRONMENTAL
POLITICAL
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

17. GROWTH
TRANSFORMATION
CONSTRAINT
COLLAPSE
Jim Dator’s Alternative Future Archetypes
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

18. GROWTH TRANSFORMATION
COLLAPSE CONSTRAINT
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

19. GROWTH TRANSFORMATION
Archetypes for the
Global Recession of 2008-09
CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

20. PICK ONE MORE AXIS OF
UNCERTAINTY:
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION
BRAIN GAIN BRAIN DRAIN
CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

21. AXES IDEAS:
1. THE COLLAPSE OF
PRODUCER-CONTROLLED
CONSUMER MARKETS
(WATTS WACKER/JIM TAYLOR)
2. INFO-WARS BETWEEN THE
FAST AND SLOW
(ALVIN TOFFLER)
3. CHINAMERICA & THE
CONNECTED GLOBAL MARKET
(NITA ROLLINS)
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

22. THE GOAL OF A GOOD
FORECAST IS NOT THE
CLASSIC QUESTION,
“IS IT CORRECT?”
BUT RATHER,
“IS IT USEFUL IN
PRODUCING SUCCESS?”
Wednesday, May 4, 2011

23. Thanks and good luck!
s
Dr. Nita Rollins
Futurist, Resource Interactive
Wednesday, May 4, 2011