RepuTex Emissions Reduction Fund Auction Simulation Tool

1. CARBON
A CLOSER
LOOK…
AT REPUTEX’S ERF AUCTION
SIMULATION TOOL

2. CARBON
2A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool
“AMID CONCERN OVER A LACK OF
MARKET TRANSPARENCY, REPUTEX’S
ANALYTICS SERVICE IS THE MOST
COMPLETE SOURCE OF INFORMATION
TO HELP COMPANIES TO SUCCEED –
AND PROFIT – IN THE NEW ERF
”

3. CARBON
3A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool
INTRODUCING REPUTEX’S ERF
AUCTION SIMULATION TOOL
In a market where a wide set of factors will affect price formation, yet low
disclosure will severely constrain access to information, RepuTex’s Emissions
Reduction Fund Auction Simulation Tool provides users with critical estimates
of ERF auction fundamentals, helping our customers to analyse market prices
and test their strategies ahead of bid submission.
Drawing on our in-house Australian Carbon Credit
Unit (ACCU) supply forecasts, the tool simulates ERF
auction outcomes by estimating expected proponent
bid volumes and prices, accounting for project costs,
bidding behaviour, competition and portfolio strategy.
Outcomes are compiled into a series of auction bid-
stacks, providing a detailed view of our estimated supply
curve, and the opportunities for proponents to optimise
their go-to-market strategies.
Notably, the tool simulates the impact of strategic activity
by proponents, such as bid-shading, on each hyperthetical
bid, helping users to analyse the overall shape of the
market and estimate auction clearing prices as firms
seek to bid the ‘maximum’, regardless of project costs.
USE THE TOOL TO:
• Estimate key ERF market fundamentals, including
supply-demand, clearing and benchmark prices,
bid-stacks, and participant bidding behaviour.
• Simulate the operation of ERF auctions to examine
the potential impact of market settings and bidding
behaviour on auction outcomes.
• Understand the impact of “bid-shading” as
proponents seek to inflate their bids towards the
highest clearing price.
• Review estimated outcomes of the last ERF auction,
including last clearing price and auction success in
order to inform your future opportunity for success.
• Test your strategies, including optimal timing and
portfolio outcomes in order to achieve increased
rates of return.

4. CARBON
4A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool
HOW TO GAIN ACCESS?
RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool is an upgrade contained within
our Carbon Market Intelligence service.
Each quarter, RepuTex publishes its base-case ERF
Auction Outlook, containing our ‘reference case’
auction forecast, downloadable in Excel form. Outputs
are supported by analyst commentary on expected
auction outcomes, trends and opportunities, along with
modelling inputs and assumptions.
Customers are able to utilise RepuTex’s ERF Auction
Simulation Tool to run specific auction simulations,
supported by RepuTex’s leading research team.
WHAT POWERS OUR
SIMULATION TOOL?
Our ERF Auction Simulation Tool estimates ERF
outcomes based on RepuTex’s in-house expectations
for proponent bid-prices, volumes, bidder behaviour and
clearing prices. We also utilise our Australian Carbon
Credit Unit (ACCU) supply forecasts, which include
detailed assumptions about the timing of supply entering
the market, and the type of abatement being supplied.
Our auction analysis therefore presents a hypothetical
simulation of the first ERF auction, driven by our market
leading models and databases.
Any information provided by you is high level in its
nature. Many customers simply run scenarios based
on RepuTex analyst opinion, or alternatively, you can
customise the model in line with our flexible input
parameters, such as your perceived benchmark price and
your go-to-market timeline.
If you are looking to learn more about how we undertake
our simulations, please contact RepuTex to set up a
demonstration.

5. CARBON
5A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool
CUSTOMISED ANALYSIS
Customers are able to work with our analysts to model the impact of a range
of user-defined scenarios and bidding strategies.
The Tool features 17 flexible input parameters, including:
• Abatement project costs
• Abatement targets
• Abatement volumes
• Auction budget cap
• Benchmark prices
• Bid prices
• Bidding range
• Bid-shading
• Contract length
• ERF budget
• Future auctions
• Individualised Bidding Strategy including
inverse price-discovery strategy
• New project entry
• Perceived benchmark price
• Project participation level
• Timing scenarios
Structural changes to the Tool are also able to be scoped based on your own requirements and objectives,
e.g. Proponent bidding behaviour. To set up your customised report, simply contact RepuTex Client Services.

6. CARBON
A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool 6
KEY FEATURES
With RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool, you can turn the “dark market”
into an advantage by gaining access to unique pricing intelligence to keep you
one step ahead of the pack.
ERF AUCTION DASHBOARD –
HEADLINE OUTCOMES
Access headline estimates for an ERF auction scenario,
including hyperhetical auction bid-stack, total abatement
purchased, supply of Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs),
total ACCUs purchased and estimated revenue by bidder
and project type, plus auction budget spent and remaining.
Information is presented in our ERF Auction Dashboard,
published online and downloadable in Excel form.
UNDERLYING AUCTION DATA –
COSTS AND WINNING BIDS
Deep dive into our projected ERF auction outcomes and
underlying market data, including estimated breakdowns of
bidding by proponent, bid prices & volume, and possible
auction success.

7. CARBON
7A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool
ERF PERFORMANCE
View our estimated ERF auction outcomes by project, including
performance by portfolio, detailing projected auction success,
contract value, share of budget, abatement contracted, offered
and number of bids by participant.
DETAILED MARKET DATA & BID-
SHADING ANALYTICS
Lift the veil on potential auction outcomes by taking an in-depth
look at the estimated impact of bidding behaviour and bid-
shading on auction outcomes, including possible bid-spreads,
hyperthetical clearing prices and abatement volumes, plus the
profitability of various strategies and the implications for the
broader market.

8. CARBON
8A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool
ERF PERFORMANCE BY CATEGORY
Gain in-depth estimates of auction outcomes by project
category in order to understand which methods might win ERF
auction rounds, and when. Information includes estimated
auction contracts by category, estimated total abatement
volume offered and sold, plus hyperthetical minimum and
maximum bid prices and average bids.
CUSTOMISABLE REPORTS,
TAILORED TO FIT YOUR NEEDS
RepuTex short-term ERF Auction Outlooks are customisable to
suit your purposes, meaning customers are able to work with
our analysts to tailor analysis based on alternative scenarios
and market settings, enabling you to simulate and optimise
strategies before you place your bid.

9. CARBON
9A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool
DETAILED FEATURES
• RepuTex ERF Auction Dashboards: published
online, downloadable in Excel form.
• ERF auction price scenario: including estimated
clearing prices resulting from benchmark price
assumption.
• Auction bid-stacks and bidding behaviour:
including analysis of hyperthetical bidding behaviour
by project including bid price & volume, plus auction
success.
• Short-term ERF outlook: Expectations for ACCU
supply and market prices for each auction over the
next 12 months.
• Underlying market data by auction: including
estimated ACCUs contracted, total abatement,
average abatement price, highest clearance price
(80% of eligible volume), benchmark price scenario,
purchased abatement by project type (volume, %).
• Customised reports: Work with our analysts to tailor
analysis based on alternative scenarios and settings,
calibrated to test your own bidding strategies and
pricing opportunities.
• Past auction information: analysis of the last
ERF auction dynamics to help you analyse past
benchmark prices, and analyse winning bids.
• Monthly reports: Full access to our Carbon Market
Intelligence research publications, including long
term outlooks, in-depth topical reports and analyst
updates.
• Access to analysts: direct access to our experienced
analysts via formal team briefings, email or informal chat.
ARRANGE A
TRIAL NOW!
To arrange a product demonstration of our
Carbon Market Analytics service, simply
CLICK HERE or contact our Client Services
team directly via subscriptions@reputex.com
or +61 3 9600 0990.

10. CARBON
10A CLOSER LOOK… At RepuTex’s ERF Auction Simulation Tool
SALES ENQUIRIES
Australia: +61 3 9600 0990
Asia: +852 2899 2418
Email
CLIENT SERVICES
Australia: +61 3 9600 0990
Asia: +852 2899 2418
Email
To learn more about our research services or to request a demonstration of
our products, please contact a member of our team below.
LOOKING FOR MORE
INFORMATION?
RESEARCH LEADS
Hugh Grossman
Executive Director
Energy and Carbon Markets
T: +61 432 875 475
Email
Bret Harper
Associate Director, Research
Energy and Carbon Markets
T: +61 459 638 113
Email
OFFICES
RepuTex Australia
Level 2,
443 Little Collins Street,
Melbourne Victoria 3000
Tel: +613 9600 0990
Fax: +613 9600 3143
RepuTex Hong Kong
303 Commercial House,
35 Queen’s Road Central,
Hong Kong
Tel: +852 2899 2418
Fax: +852 2899 2417
www.reputex.com.au
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