BMI View: Indonesia's private consumption oriented economy remains strong, and we continue to believe that solid long-term growth will occur. The economy is on track to hit our target of 5.2% real GDP growth for 2010, with GDP growth expected to accelerate slightly towards 5.3% in 2011. The positive economic outlook, along with a reasonable food consumption growth forecast ' albeit from a still-low base ' bodes well for the country's food, beverage and mass grocery retail sectors and consequently, this quarter has seen a number of new expansionary investments and the announcement of positive financial results. Headline Industry Data ' Per Capita Food Consumption (IDR) is forecast to increase by 43.6% to 2014, with growth fuelled by economic expansion but constrained by persistent income inequalities ' Soft Drink Sales (IDR) are forecast to increase by 79.7% to 2014, with value sales growth surpassing volume sales growth as consumers gradually trade up to higher value products ' Mass Grocery Retail Sales (IDR) are forecast to increase by 63.8% to 2014 and by 9.3% in 2010 on the back of sustained multinational and local company investment Key Company Trends Food Market Investment - Keen to capitalise on the opportunities available within the country's food industry, this quarter Philippines-based canned tuna manufacturer Alliance Tuna International announced plans to increase its stake in its Indonesian subsidiary from 79.92% to 89.98%. Meanwhile, Japan's leading food seasonings manufacturer Ajinomoto also confirmed that it would be investing further in Indonesia. The firm plans to build a JPY6bn (US$67.7mn) plant in the country, which will be operational by 2012. Retail Potential Continues To Be Recognised - Indonesia's mass grocery retail sector is set to witness impressive sales growth of 63.8% through to 2014, with sales expected to reach IDR88,266bn by 2014. Looking to take advantage of this forecast sales growth, Indonesia's Trans Corp, acquired a 40% stake in Carrefour Indonesia through subsidiary Para Group. The partnership offers both parties significant benefits allowing them to maximise competitiveness in such a dynamic and high-growth, but increasingly crowded market. Also seeking to exploit impressive growth forecasts, is Matahari Putra Prima announcing plans to extend its hypermarket chain by 10-15 outlets per annum through to 2014. Whilst the hypermarket format offers the lowest growth forecast of the three formats operational in Indonesia, sales are still expected to climb 61.8% to 2014 and it remains the country's strongest sales format.

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Indonesia Food and Drink Report Q4 2010
Published on September 2010
Report Summary
BMI View: Indonesia's private consumption oriented economy remains strong, and we continue to believe that solid long-term growth
will occur. The economy is on track to hit our target of 5.2% real GDP growth for 2010, with GDP growth expected to accelerate
slightly towards 5.3% in 2011. The positive economic outlook, along with a reasonable food consumption growth forecast ' albeit from
a still-low base ' bodes well for the country's food, beverage and mass grocery retail sectors and consequently, this quarter has seen
a number of new expansionary investments and the announcement of positive financial results.
Headline Industry Data
' Per Capita Food Consumption (IDR) is forecast to increase by 43.6% to 2014, with growth fuelled by economic expansion but
constrained by persistent income inequalities
' Soft Drink Sales (IDR) are forecast to increase by 79.7% to 2014, with value sales growth surpassing volume sales growth as
consumers gradually trade up to higher value products
' Mass Grocery Retail Sales (IDR) are forecast to increase by 63.8% to 2014 and by 9.3% in 2010 on the back of sustained
multinational and local company investment
Key Company Trends
Food Market Investment - Keen to capitalise on the opportunities available within the country's food industry, this quarter
Philippines-based canned tuna manufacturer Alliance Tuna International announced plans to increase its stake in its Indonesian
subsidiary from 79.92% to 89.98%. Meanwhile, Japan's leading food seasonings manufacturer Ajinomoto also confirmed that it would
be investing further in Indonesia. The firm plans to build a JPY6bn (US$67.7mn) plant in the country, which will be operational by
2012.
Retail Potential Continues To Be Recognised - Indonesia's mass grocery retail sector is set to witness impressive sales growth of
63.8% through to 2014, with sales expected to reach IDR88,266bn by 2014. Looking to take advantage of this forecast sales growth,
Indonesia's Trans Corp, acquired a 40% stake in Carrefour Indonesia through subsidiary Para Group. The partnership offers both
parties significant benefits allowing them to maximise competitiveness in such a dynamic and high-growth, but increasingly crowded
market. Also seeking to exploit impressive growth forecasts, is Matahari Putra Prima announcing plans to extend its hypermarket
chain by 10-15 outlets per annum through to 2014. Whilst the hypermarket format offers the lowest growth forecast of the three
formats operational in Indonesia, sales are still expected to climb 61.8% to 2014 and it remains the country's strongest sales format.
Table of Content
BMI Industry View ............. 5
SWOT Analysis .... 6
Indonesia Food Industry SWOT .... 6
Indonesia Drink Industry SWOT ... 7
Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT ....... 8
BMI Business Environment Ratings ............ 9
BMI's Core Global Industry Views .... 9
Table: BMI Food & Drink Core Views ..... 10
Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings ........ 11
Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings - Q4 2010 .... 14
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Indonesia's Risk/Reward Rating . 15
Macroeconomic Outlook .... 16
Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity ....... 18
Industry Forecast Scenario ........... 19
Food ....... 19
Food Consumption ........ 19
Table: Indonesia - Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts .......... 20
Canned Food .. 20
Table: Indonesia ' Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ......... 21
Confectionery .. 22
Table: Indonesia ' Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ......... 22
Trade 23
Table: Indonesia - Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ........ 23
Drink ...... 24
Hot Drinks ...... 24
Table: Indonesia Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts .... 24
Alcoholic Drinks ........... 25
Table: Indonesia Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts .... 25
Soft Drinks ...... 26
Table: Indonesia Beverage Sub-Sectors - Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts .... 27
Mass Grocery Retail .......... 28
Table: Indonesia Mass Grocery Retail Sales by Format ....... 30
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format (%) ' Historical Data & Forecasts ..... 30
Food ...... 31
Industry Developments ....... 31
Market Overview . 36
Food Production ........... 36
Confectionery .. 36
Halal . 37
Agriculture ...... 38
Organics ......... 39
Fisheries ......... 39
Drink ..... 40
Industry Developments ....... 40
Market Overview . 42
Soft Drinks ...... 42
Alcoholic Drinks ........... 43
Hot Drinks ...... 43
Mass Grocery Retail ........ 44
Industry Developments ....... 44
Market Overview . 47
Table: Structure of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Estimated Number of Outlets ......... 49
Table: Structure of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales by Format (IDRbn) 50
Table: Structure of Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector - Sales by Format (US$mn) ............. 50
Table: Average Annual Sales by Format ' 2008 ..... 50
Competitive Landscape .. 51
Table: Key Players in Indonesia's Food & Drink Sector - 2009 .......... 51
Table: Key Players in Indonesia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector, 2009 . 52
Company Analysis 53
Food . 53
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Indofood Sukses Makmur Terbuka ............ 53
Drink . 55
Coca-Cola Amatil (CCA) ............ 55
Aqua Golden Mississippi (Aqua) 57
Mass Grocery Retail ..... 58
Matahari Putra Prima .. 58
Carrefour ........ 60
BMI Methodology ............ 62
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings ............. 62
Table: Rewards ............. 63
Table: Risks .... 64
Weighting ............. 64
Table: Weighting .......... 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .... 66
Sourcing .......... 67
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary ........... 68
Food & Drink . 68
Mass Grocery Retail ..... 68
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